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    073670

    Contraceptive requirements and logistics management needs in Pakistan.

    United Nations Population Fund [UNFPA]

    New York, New York, UNFPA, [1992]. vii, 91 p. (Report)

    An UNFPA team visited Pakistan in 1991 to evaluate Pakistan's contraceptive requirements and logistics management needs through 2000. It discussed its findings in a report. The 1st demographic projection conducted by the team estimated population growth rates of 2.6% in 1997-1998 and 2.5% in 1999-2000. In order for this projection to actually occur, the contraceptive prevalence rate in Pakistan must increase 3%/year. Yet this rate has hardly ever lasted in a country beyond 5 years. Further, to make it possible for a 3% increase/year, Pakistan needs US$ 17 million worth of contraceptives/years. It presumes contraceptive costs, excluding sterilization and the commercial sector, of US$ 39 million/year. The 2nd demographic projection resulted in a 2% increase/year in contraceptive prevalence. Several countries have been able to maintain this rate for at least 10 years. This projection estimated a population growth rate of 2.68%/year. It needs US$ 14 in contraceptives each year. Contraceptive costs would be US$ 35 million. The team also used procurement analysis tables to determine contraceptive needs. They predicted US$ 18 million of additional contraceptives for the rest of fiscal 1991-1992 and the next 2 fiscal years. Donors appeared to be interested in carrying on needed management information system technical assistance. The current logistics management of moving contraceptive stocks from the Ministry of Population Welfare to Ministry of Health outlets tended to problematic. The team suggested that UNFPA help the government coordinate procurement of donated contraceptives. Further UNFPA should encourage early implementation of an IUD follow up study and inform donors on the effect of recent price increases for oral contraceptives (OCs) and condoms. Plants in Pakistan manufacture or package OCs and injectables and Pakistan will eventually be self sufficient in OCs and injectables. The team did not foresee immediate local condom production, however.
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