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Habitat Debate. 2001 Jun; 7(2): p..Population and household projections are of crucial importance to both policy makers and researchers who depend on timely and reliable projections to make informed decisions and to produce quality research studies. Currently, one of the most problematic areas regarding projections is the demographic impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in countries with high prevalence rates i.e. how the epidemic is influencing population and household projections. At the end of the year 2000, 36.1 million people were estimated to be living with HIV/AIDS, of which 1.4 million were children. 47 per cent of the infected adults were women. 5.3 million people will be newly infected during this year. The pandemic does not spread homogeneously. The number of infections, the risk of dying, the access to medication and the principal transmission ways vary worldwide, and so does the impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on population structure and on household formation. In countries where the epidemic is endemic in the general population, the impact on the age and gender structure of the population is significant, and changes in the social context and behaviour are certain. (excerpt)
Population 2005. 2002 Sep-Oct; 4(3):1, 8.AIDS will spread five times faster over the next 20 years than it has over the past two decades and will kill nearly 70 million people in 45 of the most affected countries, according to a recent U.N. report. Having swept Africa, the disease is expected to overwhelm China and India, the world’s two most populous countries, says the Report on Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic 2002 released during the U.N. Conference on HIV/AIDS in Barcelona, Spain, in July. The number of children orphaned by HIV/AIDS has risen threefold in six years and reached an all-time high of 13.4 million. India has the largest number of AIDS orphans anywhere in the world, standing at 1.2 million in 2001, and predicted to rise to 2 million in five years and 2.7 million in 10 years. (excerpt)
2003 world population data sheet of the Population Reference Bureau. Demographic data and estimates for the countries and regions of the world.
Washington, D.C., PRB, 2003. 13 p.With every passing year, prospects for population growth in the more developed and less developed countries grow more dissimilar. On this year’s Data Sheet, the total fertility rate (TFR) for the more developed countries is a mere 1.5, compared with 3.1 in the less developed countries—3.5 if outlier China’s large statistical effect is removed. But the passage of time, as well as the difference in fertility rates, is ensuring that the two types of countries can expect to continue to have different population sizes in the future. The decline in Europe’s fertility rates is not a recent phenomenon; those rates have been low for quite some time. As a result, there have been long-term changes to age distributions in Europe, and this “youth dearth” is now taking on a more significant role in the near certainty of population decline. (excerpt)
[The United Nations revises its world population predictions upward] L'ONU revoit a la hausse ses previsions sur la population mondiale.
EQUILIBRES ET POPULATIONS. 2001 Mar; (66):5.Despite considerable excess mortality due to AIDS in countries and regions around the globe, high fertility in developing countries could add 500 million more people than projected to world population over the next 50 years. Medium-level UN projections anticipate a total world population of 9.3 billion individuals by 2050. Due to high fertility levels, the population of developing countries will grow from 4.9 billion people in 2000 to 8.2 billion in 2050. If the mean number of children per woman worldwide is 2.82, the 48 countries located in the world’s least developed regions have average total fertility rates greater than 5 children per woman. Most recent UN population projections for 2050 are higher than previous calculations due to a re-examination of fertility rates for 16 developing countries which will alone add 374 million people. The correction is particularly important in the cases of Bangladesh and Nigeria. At the same time, while the extent of AIDS mortality will increase over the next 5 years, to afflict 15.5 million people in the 45 worst-hit countries, those countries’ populations should continue to expand due to high fertility. Even in Botswana, where HIV prevalence is 36%, or in Swaziland and Zimbabwe, where HIV/AIDS infection rates are over 25%, the populations should continue to grow significantly over the next 50 years: by 37% in Botswana, 148% in Swaziland, and 86% in Zimbabwe. Only South Africa should see its population decline until 2025, then expand again. In this context, international migration and demographic aging are considered.
New York, New York, United Nations, 1994. x, 72 p. (ST/ESA/SER.A/137)This 1994 report revises prior 1992 UN world population estimates and projections for Africa. The revision accounts for the potential demographic impact of AIDS mortality. Revisions are made for 15 countries in sub-Saharan Africa that had HIV seroprevalence of greater than 1% of the adult population in 1990. Country profiles pertain to Benin, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Central African Republic, Congo, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Rwanda, Uganda, Tanzania, Zaire, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. This revision includes more than the 1992 adjustments. A more detailed evaluation is made of changes in the age distribution of population and mortality. A review is given of the epidemiology of HIV/AIDS and the potential social and economic impacts. It is estimated that 9 million deaths will be added in the 15 countries by 2005, of which 61% will occur in Uganda (1.8 million), Zaire (1.4 million), Tanzania (1.3 million), and Zambia (1.1 million). Almost 50% of deaths will occur among youth under 15 years of age. The mortality rate in the age group 25-49 years in 2000-2005 is expected to double to 11.1 deaths/1000 population due to AIDS. Because mortality occurs in the prime working and family care years, the potential impact is expected to be enormous. Patterns of caregiving among children and the elderly are expected to be greatly affected. Families and extended families may be required to care for "stigmatized" HIV-infected adults and children and to replace income-earning capabilities. Medical expenditures and funeral costs will reduce the availability of resources for fulfilling other basic needs. The health sector will be affected by an increased case load that for some countries could reach 1 million persons. Health facilities already strained by inadequate resources will experience tremendous pressure. The size and quality of the labor force will also be affected.
POPULATION TODAY. 1992 Oct; 20(10):1-2.Reaching 5.5 billion in mid-1992, global population is basically on track with population projections made in 1990. About 60% of the world's population currently lives in ten countries; China and India together comprise 38% of the total. At the growth rate of 1.7%, 750 million people will be added to the world by the end of the decade, with populations of less developed countries growing four times faster than those in the more developed regions. Although the overall growth rate is as projected, all is not as expected at the country level. Compared with 1990 estimates, several African countries are growing more slowly than expected, largely due to AIDS. It is noted, however, that the UN's projected effects of the AIDS epidemic on population size are modest compared to recent speculation that AIDS could halt population growth in Africa. Latin America is also growing slower than expected due to a faster than expected decline in fertility. China is growing a bit faster than expected and India is growing a bit slower. With its 1992 revisions, the UN Population Division for the first time took into account the potential demographic impact of the AIDS pandemic. Life expectancies have been adjusted downward in the 15 countries where AIDS has the highest prevalence: Benin, Burundi, Burkina Faso, Central African Republic, Congo, Cote d'Ivoire, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, Zaire, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. AIDS could reduce population growth by 20 million in these countries over the next 25 years. Population growth rates will nonetheless remain strongly positive in the next few decades with the rapid pace of fertility affecting future population growth far more than mortality or any other demographic parameter. The new projections also take into account recent international migration and sweeping global political changes.
POPULI. 1994 Jun; 21(6):4.The Population Division of the UN Department for Economic and Social Information and Population Analysis has conducted a study of the AIDS pandemic's demographic impact in 15 Sun-Saharan countries. By 2005, these countries will have experienced 9 million AIDS deaths. 61% of these AIDS deaths will occur in just 4 countries (Tanzania, Uganda, Zaire, and Zambia). The remaining 39% will occur in the 11 other countries (Benin, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Central African Republic, Congo, Cote d'Ivoire, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Rwanda, and Zimbabwe). Population growth rates will still be high, even though so many people will die from AIDS. In fact, the population is projected to increase more than 2-fold (138.4-297.9 million, between 1980 and 2005). By 2000- 2005, life expectancy in Uganda will have decreased 11 years due to Aids. People with AIDS die in their most economically and socially productive years. Thus, AIDS is affecting the size and quality of the labor forces in Sub-Saharan Africa as well as the rural agricultural sector, leading to likely food shortages. AIDS also takes away breadwinners and caregivers from families. In Berlin in September, 1993, the UN reported these findings to the round-table meeting entitled Population Policies and Programmes: The Impact of HIV/AIDS. The aim of this meeting was preparation for the upcoming International Conference on Population and Development.
Europe and Central Asia Region, Middle East and North Africa Region, population projections, 1992-93 edition.
Washington, D.C., World Bank, Population and Human Resources Dept., 1992 Nov. xcv, 203 p. (Policy Research Working Papers WPS 1016)Statistical information and a summary introduction were provided for Eastern Europe and Europe, Central Asia and the Middle East, and North African regions for selected demographic and economic measures. Measures included income, birth and death rates, fertility rates, rate of natural increase, net migration rate, growth rate, infant mortality rate, dependency ratio, and population projections to 2150. Detailed age and sex distributions were also provided. Both World Bank and nonborrower countries were included. The figures were updated from the 1990-91 Edition. The summary described and discussed recent demographic trends and future projections, and reviewed countries and regions by income level. Noteworthy changes by country were indicated. World Bank borrower countries were divided into the following regions: sub-Saharan Africa, East Asia and the Pacific, South Asia, Europe and Central Asia, Middle East and North Africa, and Latin America and the Caribbean, which were regrouped into 4-6 country departments and into 4 income groups. The largest population was in East Asia and the Pacific with 30% of world population. Other large regions included South Asia with 21%, Africa with 10%, Europe and Central Asia with 9%, Latin America and the Caribbean with 8%, and the Middle East and North Africa with 5%. Country departments reflected the regions as a whole, with the exception of sub-Saharan Africa with growth rates of 32.% to 2.8%. East Africa had the highest rates and Sahelian and South African countries the lowest rates. The Middle Eastern countries had rates of 3.0% in contrast to North African countries rates of 2.7%. Diversity was greatest in Asian departments. Rates were 2.0-2.6% in South Asia and 1.9-1.4% in East Asian and Pacific departments. The lowest rates were in European and Central Asian departments. In 1992, less developed countries comprised 77% of the world population. The projections indicated that by 2150 the population would reach 12.2 billion, of which 88% would live in developing countries. The 1992 projections differed from 1990-91's in that the projections were revised downward due to AIDS mortality. World fertility was projected to decline from 3.2 now to 2.9 by 2000 and 2.4 by 2025. Life expectancy was expected to reach 70 years in about 2010. The proportion aged would rise in more developed countries.
BULLETIN OF THE INTERNATIONAL UNION AGAINST TUBERCULOSIS AND LUNG DISEASE. 1990 Dec; 65(4):75.WHO estimates of pediatric AIDS cases are 400,000 by September 1990, not including 300,000 who have already died. WHO projects that 10 million or more infants and children will have HIV infections by 2000, in addition to 25-30 million adults. The primary mode of transmission in most countries is heterosexual contact, resulting in a rapidly increasing prevalence in women of childbearing age. WHO predicts that pediatric AIDS will be a major, and in some countries the predominant, cause of death in children in the 1990s. Even though child survival programs have made progress recently, by immunization and diarrhea control, the fruits of these efforts are expected to be reversed. The world's cumulative total of HIV infected women is about 3 million. In the U.S., 20,000 infants have been born to infected mothers. In contrast, in Eastern Europe, about 1000 children are infected, mostly from unscreened blood transfusions and unsterilized needles and syringes. The impact of childhood AIDS is expected to be an increase in child mortality by 50% in many developing countries. Serious social repercussions for children also stem from projected 10 million uninfected children orphaned by AIDS, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa. The only way to lessen this tragedy is for people to protect themselves by practicing safe sex and having sexually transmitted diseases treated.
SCIENCE. 1991 Apr 19; 252:372-3.WHO and U.S. Centers for Disease Control data on HIV/AIDS prevalence as of April 1991 are summarized, as they were shown to a meeting of molecular biologists. WHO estimates that there are about 1 million cases of AIDS, and 8-10 million infected with HIV, although only 340,000 cases of AIDS have been reported to Geneva. In sub-Saharan Africa, 700,000 cases and 6 million carriers are estimated, including 500,000 infected infants. 15-20% of the workforce are predicted to die, leaving 10 million orphans within 10 years. HIV-related tuberculosis is a new problem. In Asia, there are estimated 500,000 people infected, mostly in Thailand, but also many in Bombay and Madras, India. Spread of HIV from prostitutes to migrant workers is a fear. In Latin America about 1 million are infected, with very high rates in some locations such as Haiti. Despite excellent interventions in Jamaica and Trinidad, infection rates are climbing. There are about 1 million infected in North America, 500,000 in Western Europe, largely limited to certain subgroups, and similar rates in Australia and New Zealand. Northern Africa, Eastern Europe and the USSR have much lower HIV prevalence so far. WHO predicts 15-20 million infected by 1995-2000.