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  1. 1
    020656

    Revised curriculum materials integrating population education with high school world history.

    Philippine Wesleyan College. Wesleyan Population Center

    Cabanatuan City, Philippines, Philippine Wesleyan College, Wesleyan Population Center, 1975. 39 p.

    These revised curriculum materials integrating population education with high school world history have as general objectives to chart the population growth of the world from 600,000 B.C. to 1970, to project future growth through 2000, to outline the causes of population growth and zero growth in the various stages of world history, to distinguish between the degree of environmental and population control attainable by ancient and modern man, and to describe national and international organizations and activities which may help reduce world population growth. The early lessons present the concepts that population growth has been slow in most of human history, with high death rates balancing high birthrates, and that the life of prehistoric man was uncomfortable and short, with his numbers kept in check by natural events; that the development of man's 1st major achievement in environmental control, agriculture, allowed greater population growth and density than hunting and gathering; and that despite increased food production, life was still uncomfortable and short, with famine and disease continuing to exert high tolls and food production continuing to be threatened by consumption due to increasing numbers. The 4th lesson, covering the effects of industrialization from 1650-1900 on world population, presents the concepts that industrial inventions permit greater food production and further population increases, and that population growth during these years was greatly speeded. The next lesson concerns the effects of medicine on world population between 1900-70, emphasizing that improved mortality control made possible by medical discoveries greatly decreased the death rate from disease, and that disease control operates independently of food supply. The 6th lesson, on population projection to 2000, teaches that population growth has accelerated in recent years in the developing countries while slowing voluntarily in developed areas, and that the developing world may pursue population control or growth may again be controlled by famine, disease, and war. The 7th lesson suggests that man can control his population, that overpopulation is a worldwide threat, and that international agencies exist to help slow growth. Each lesson contains a description of the subject matter, a list of teaching aids and references, lists of concepts and specific objectives to be covered, and outlines of procedures regarding perceptions and development of the lesson.
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  2. 2
    272961

    Proceeding of the World Population Conference, Rome, Italy, 31 August-10 September 1954. Summary report.

    World Population Conference (1954: Rome)

    New York, United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 1955. 207 p.

    The 1954 World Population Conference was the 1st scientific conference on the problems of population to be held under the auspices of the United Nations. This document describes the organization of the conference and contains a list of the 28 meetings held, the topics of discussion of each meeting, a list of the papers contributed and their authors, and a summary report of each meeting. Annex A provides a list of the officers of the conference and members of cimmittees. Annex B lists the participants and contributors. Topics discussed include mortality trends; demographic statistics--quality, techniques of measurement and analysis; fertility trends; new census undertakings; migration; legislation, administrative programs and services for population control; population projection methods and prospects; preliterate peoples; age distribution; socioeconomic consequences of an aging population; demographic aspects of socioeconomic development; design and control of demographic field studies; agricultural and industrial development; genetics and population; research on fertility and intelligence; social implications of population changes; recruitment and training of demographic researchers and teachers; forecast for world population growth and distribution; and economic and social implications of the present population trends.
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  3. 3
    015554

    Global models, world futures, and public policy: a critique.

    United States. Congress. Office of Technology Assessment

    Washington, D.C., Office of Technology Assessment, 1982 Apr. 120 p. (OTA Report OTA-R-165)

    Global models, as tools of policy formulation, have been used to evaluate or promote alternative actions and programs that might bring about different or more favorable world futures. This report surveys the assumptions, findings, and recommendations of 5 major global modeling studies. It also considers the use of global models within the US government, such as the World Integrated Model (WIM) that is being used by the US Joint Chiefs of Staff. The report presents strategies that have been suggested for improving the quality and relevance of the Government's modeling capability. Of particular interest in this connection is the newly created White House "national indicators system." Appendixes provided detailed comparative analyses of the models' projections of population, agriculture, and energy trends. Global modeling studies have varied widely in their purposes, techniques, findings, and prescriptions. Specific quantitative results have differed, but the studies have generally identified the same problems and seem to have arrived at roughly similar qualitative conclusions about the present state of the world and its plausible futures. As a tool of analysis, global modeling is neutral, yet it can be designed or used inappropriately. Global modeling is used by a variety of organizations. Global models offer several methodological advantages over traditional techniques of long range analysis and policy development: longer time horizon; comprehensiveness; rigor and accessibility; logic; and flexiblity. Global models are subject to several limitations that can constrain their accuracy, reliability, and usefulness: methodological, theoretical; and data constraints. Frequently cited institutional barriers include: poor communication between modelers and potential model users; narrow specialization of interests and responsibilities; lack of understanding, confidence, or support for modeling among top level policymakers; and lack of interest in longterm global issues on the part of the US Federal agencies, US Congress, and the general public. Proposed initiatives for improving the government's modeling capabilities usually reflect 4 fundamental priorites: correct existing deficiencies; coordinate existing capabilities and activities; support technical improvements in the government's capability and the state of the art; and link foresight with policymaking. The 5 global modeling studies addressed in this report demonstrate at least 3 fundamentally different "predictive styles"--World 3 model and Global 2000 examine what might happen if current trends continued, while the Latin American and UN world models examine the goals that might be realized through broad changes in those trends, and the WIM examines the policies and action that might bring those changes about. The models also vary significantly in their more specific purposes, assumptions, and methodologies, but they do display a limited consensus about the nature of the world system and the identity of the problems facing it, as well as some of the steps that must be taken to address them. Discussion examines the areas of general agreement or disagreement that emerge from these 5 studies.
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  4. 4
    019821

    Population, employment and economic growth in Indonesia.

    Sigit H

    In: United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP]. Modelling economic and demographic development. New York, United Nations, 1983. 7-51. (Asian Population Studies Series No. 54)

    An economic-demographic model for Indonesia was constructed to explore the effects of population changes on economic growth. 3 simulations were computed for the 1980-2010 period on the basis of different assumptions regarding growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) and fertility trends. Projection 1 was based on high growth and high fertility (HGHF), projection 2 on low growth and high fertility (LGHF), and projection 3 on low growth and low fertility (LGLF). The HGHF simulation projects an increase in the rate of growth of the GDP from 8% in 1980 to 14% by 2010, whereas the 2 other simulations project increases reaching a peak of around 11% by 1995-2000 and then declining slightly due to slower growth in the manufacturing sector. Population growth will accelerate in 1980-90 due to a faster decline in mortality caused by the growth of GDP, but will then decline from 2.48% in 1990 to 2.05% in 2010. The overall growth under HGHF conditions is slower. The HGHF, LGHF, and LGLF simulations project a total population by 2010 of 289 million, 300 million, and 245 million, respectively. Under high growth, employment in agriculture will rapidly decline from 63% to 22% during 1980-2010, whereas the decline under low growth conditions is only to 34%. A lower growth of GDP will slow down fertility decline, increase population growth, and consequently speed up entry into the labor force. If fertility measures are taken and fertility declines by 50% in 1970-2000, per government projections, labor force conditions will be more favorable. Under HGHF foreign funds are required by the economy until the year 2000, whereas under low growth they are required only until 1995. It is assumed that these projections on the interrelationship between demographic and socioeconomic factors have utility as a basis for formulating a conceptual framework for population policy.
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