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  1. 1
    020656

    Revised curriculum materials integrating population education with high school world history.

    Philippine Wesleyan College. Wesleyan Population Center

    Cabanatuan City, Philippines, Philippine Wesleyan College, Wesleyan Population Center, 1975. 39 p.

    These revised curriculum materials integrating population education with high school world history have as general objectives to chart the population growth of the world from 600,000 B.C. to 1970, to project future growth through 2000, to outline the causes of population growth and zero growth in the various stages of world history, to distinguish between the degree of environmental and population control attainable by ancient and modern man, and to describe national and international organizations and activities which may help reduce world population growth. The early lessons present the concepts that population growth has been slow in most of human history, with high death rates balancing high birthrates, and that the life of prehistoric man was uncomfortable and short, with his numbers kept in check by natural events; that the development of man's 1st major achievement in environmental control, agriculture, allowed greater population growth and density than hunting and gathering; and that despite increased food production, life was still uncomfortable and short, with famine and disease continuing to exert high tolls and food production continuing to be threatened by consumption due to increasing numbers. The 4th lesson, covering the effects of industrialization from 1650-1900 on world population, presents the concepts that industrial inventions permit greater food production and further population increases, and that population growth during these years was greatly speeded. The next lesson concerns the effects of medicine on world population between 1900-70, emphasizing that improved mortality control made possible by medical discoveries greatly decreased the death rate from disease, and that disease control operates independently of food supply. The 6th lesson, on population projection to 2000, teaches that population growth has accelerated in recent years in the developing countries while slowing voluntarily in developed areas, and that the developing world may pursue population control or growth may again be controlled by famine, disease, and war. The 7th lesson suggests that man can control his population, that overpopulation is a worldwide threat, and that international agencies exist to help slow growth. Each lesson contains a description of the subject matter, a list of teaching aids and references, lists of concepts and specific objectives to be covered, and outlines of procedures regarding perceptions and development of the lesson.
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  2. 2
    131425

    [A model of world population growth as an experiment in systematic research] Model' rosta naseleniya zemli kak opyt sistemnogo issledovaniya.

    Kapitsa S

    VOPROSY STATISTIKI. 1997; (8):46-57.

    A mathematical model was developed for the estimation of global population growth, and the estimates were compared with those of the UN and covered the stretch of 4.4 million years B.C. to the years 2175 and 2500 A.D. The estimates were also broken down into human, geological, and technological historical periods. The model showed that human population would stabilize at the level of 14 billion around 2500 A.D. and 13 billion around 2200 A.D., in accordance with UN projections. It also revealed the history of human population growth through the following stages (UN figures are listed in parentheses): 100,000, about 1.6 million years ago; 5 (1-5) million, 35,000 B.C.; 21 (10-15) million, 7000 B.C.; 46 (47) million, 2000 B.C.; 93 (100-230) million, at the time of Christ; 185 (275-345) million, 1000 A.D.; 366 (450-540) million, 1500 A.D.; 887 (907) million, 1800 A.D.; 1158 (1170) million, 1850 A.D.; 1656 (1650-1710) million, 1900 A.D.; 2812 (2515) million, 1950 A.D.; 5253 (5328) million, 1990 A.D.; 6265 (6261) million, 2000 A.D.; 10,487 (10,019) million, 2050 A.D.; 12,034 (11,186) million, 2100 A.D.; 12,648 (11,543) million, 2150 A.D.; 12,946 (11,600) million, 2200 A.D.; and 13,536 million, 2500 A.D. The model advanced the investigation of phenomena by studying the interactions between economical, technological, social, cultural, and biological processes. The analysis showed that humanity has reached a critical phase in its growth and that development in each period depended on external, not internal, factors. This permits the formulation of the principle of demographic imperative (distinct from the Malthusian principle), which states that resources determine the speed and extent of the growth of population.
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  3. 3
    104056

    Urban and rural areas 1994. [Wallchart].

    United Nations. Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis. Population Division

    New York, New York, United Nations, Dept. for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis, Population Division, 1995. [2] p. (ST/ESA/SER.A/148)

    This chart tabulates the 1994 and the projected 2025 population of the world (broken down into more developed, less developed, and least developed countries) and of individual countries in the regions of Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin American and the Caribbean, Northern America, and Oceania. The chart then presents these figures for rural population (in thousands) and percentage urban population. The annual growth rate for 1990-95 is also shown as is the population of the largest urban agglomeration for each country in 1990. Bar graphs depict the percentage of population living in urban areas in 1994 and 2025 for the world and the regions, urban population in billions for each 5-year period from 1950 to 2025, and rural population in billions in the same manner for the same period.
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  4. 4
    083302

    Population projections for Mongolia: 1989-2019.

    Neupert RF

    ASIA-PACIFIC POPULATION JOURNAL. 1992 Dec; 7(4):61-80.

    The State Statistical Office with the support of UNDESD and UNFPA prepared 3 projections. A standard cohort component method was used to project populations by sex and 5-year age groups for each quinquennium between 1989 and 2019. 3 hypotheses were proposed. In Hypothesis 1, fertility was assumed to stabilize at a level of a TFR of 3.5 children per woman. In Hypothesis 3, fertility was assumed to decline up to the period 1990-2004 and up to the replacement level (2.23 children per woman during that period). Hypothesis 2 represents an intermediate situation between Hypothesis 1 and 3 which was considered as the most plausible future trend of fertility. According to Projection 2 the population of Mongolia will be almost 3.8 million in the year 2019. Projections 1 and 3 give total populations of 4.2 and 3.5 million, respectively. The difference between a TFR of 2.2 and 3.5 for the last quinquennium of the projection period resulted in a difference of around 700,000 people. The difference between Projections 1 and 2 is about 400,000 people. Considering the fertility assumptions adopted for these projections, it is not very likely that the size of the population at the turn of the century will be much smaller than 2.6 million or larger than 3 million. What is more uncertain is the scenario for the 2nd decade of next century. During the next 2 decades, the growth will become gradually more moderate. The main changes will be an increase in the proportion of the population between 15 and 64 years of age, a decline in the proportion of the young population of the young population resulting in a substantial decrease of the dependency ratio and an increase in the median age of the population. According to the 3 hypotheses, the young population will continue growing, albeit at a slower pace. There will be a decline in the proportion of young to old people and an increase in the proportion of the population in the working age groups. Yet, all age groups will continue to increase in absolute terms. International migration may produce some deviations in this expected profile.
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  5. 5
    082184

    Europe and Central Asia Region, Middle East and North Africa Region, population projections, 1992-93 edition.

    Vu MT; Bos E; Levin A

    Washington, D.C., World Bank, Population and Human Resources Dept., 1992 Nov. xcv, 203 p. (Policy Research Working Papers WPS 1016)

    Statistical information and a summary introduction were provided for Eastern Europe and Europe, Central Asia and the Middle East, and North African regions for selected demographic and economic measures. Measures included income, birth and death rates, fertility rates, rate of natural increase, net migration rate, growth rate, infant mortality rate, dependency ratio, and population projections to 2150. Detailed age and sex distributions were also provided. Both World Bank and nonborrower countries were included. The figures were updated from the 1990-91 Edition. The summary described and discussed recent demographic trends and future projections, and reviewed countries and regions by income level. Noteworthy changes by country were indicated. World Bank borrower countries were divided into the following regions: sub-Saharan Africa, East Asia and the Pacific, South Asia, Europe and Central Asia, Middle East and North Africa, and Latin America and the Caribbean, which were regrouped into 4-6 country departments and into 4 income groups. The largest population was in East Asia and the Pacific with 30% of world population. Other large regions included South Asia with 21%, Africa with 10%, Europe and Central Asia with 9%, Latin America and the Caribbean with 8%, and the Middle East and North Africa with 5%. Country departments reflected the regions as a whole, with the exception of sub-Saharan Africa with growth rates of 32.% to 2.8%. East Africa had the highest rates and Sahelian and South African countries the lowest rates. The Middle Eastern countries had rates of 3.0% in contrast to North African countries rates of 2.7%. Diversity was greatest in Asian departments. Rates were 2.0-2.6% in South Asia and 1.9-1.4% in East Asian and Pacific departments. The lowest rates were in European and Central Asian departments. In 1992, less developed countries comprised 77% of the world population. The projections indicated that by 2150 the population would reach 12.2 billion, of which 88% would live in developing countries. The 1992 projections differed from 1990-91's in that the projections were revised downward due to AIDS mortality. World fertility was projected to decline from 3.2 now to 2.9 by 2000 and 2.4 by 2025. Life expectancy was expected to reach 70 years in about 2010. The proportion aged would rise in more developed countries.
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  6. 6
    074860

    World population projections, 1989-90 edition: short-and long-term estimates.

    Bulatao RA; Bos E; Stephens PW; Vu MT

    Baltimore, Maryland, Johns Hopkins University Press, 1990. lxxiii, 421 p.

    The World Bank's Population and Human Resources Department regularly publishes a set of world population projections based on its data files. This 1989-90 report has projections for the world and for regions, income groups of countries, and 187 countries. World Bank staff made projections to the point where populations reach stability. In almost all cases, they made only 1 projection. Projection tables for 1985-2030 exist for each country's population. Each country also has tables on birth rate, death rate, net migration, natural increase, population growth, total fertility rate, life expectancy, infant mortality rate, and dependency ratio. The report shows that from 1985-90 population growth was 1.74%, and projected 1990 world population size was 5.3 billion. By 2025, 84.1% of the world's population will be living in developing countries. 58% of the population now lives in Asia. The population of Africa is growing faster than that of Asia, however, (3 vs. 1.9%). By 2000, the population of Africa will be second only to that of Asia, yet in 1989-1990, it is behind that of Asia, Europe and the USSR, and the Americas. The current dependency ratio (67) is expected to decline to 53 by 2025. The highest current dependency ratio belongs to Kenya (120). In developed countries with aging populations, the dependency ratio will rise from 50-58. China will most likely to continue to be the most populous country for about 200 years. India will continue to contribute more to population growth than any other country in the world. Yet the Federal Republic of Germany loses 100,000 people yearly. Total fertility rates are the greatest in Rwanda, the Yemen Arab Republic, Kenya, Malawi, and the Ivory Coast (all >7.2). Afghanistan and 3 western African countries have the shortest life expectancies (about 40 years). These trends illustrate the need to alter population growth.
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  7. 7
    076548

    1991 ESCAP population data sheet.

    United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP]. Population Division

    Bangkok, Thailand, ESCAP, Population Division, 1991. [1] p.

    The 1991 Population Data Sheet produced by the UN Economic and social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) provides a large chart by country and region for Asia and the Pacific for the following variables: mid-1991 population, average annual growth rate, crude birth rate, crude death rate, total fertility rate, infant mortality rate, male life expectancy at birth, female life expectancy at birth, % aged 0-14 years, % aged 65 and over, dependency ratios, density, % urban, and population projection at 2010. 3 charts also display urban and rural population trends between 1980 and 2025, the crude birth and death rates and rate of natural increase by region, and dependency ratios for 27 countries.
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  8. 8
    071956

    Nepal.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    In: World population policies. Volume II. Gabon to Norway, [compiled by] United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division. New York, New York, United Nations, 1989. 198-201. (Population Studies No. 102/Add.1; ST/ESA/SER.A/102/Add.1)

    Nepal's 1985 population of 16,482,000 is projected to grow to 33,946,000 by the year 2025. In 1985, 43.3% of the population was aged 0-14 years, while 5.0% were over the age of 60. 28.6% and 7.3% are projected to be in these respective age groups by the year 2025. The rate of natural increase will have declined from 23.3 to 11.7 over the period. Life expectancy should increase from 45.9 to 61.8 years, the crude death rate will decrease from 18.4 to 9.0, while infant mortality will decline from 138.7 to 61.4. The fertility rate will decline over the period from 6.3 to 2.5, with a corresponding drop in the crude birth rate from 41.7 to 20.6. The 1986 contraceptive prevalence rate was 15.0, while the 1981 female mean age at 1st marriage was 17.1 years. Urban population will increase from 7.7% in 1985 to 30.6% overall by the year 2025. Significant emigration is considered to be acceptable by the government, while population growth, morbidity, mortality, fertility, immigration. and spatial distribution are not. Nepal has an explicit population policy. Intervening both directly and indirectly, policy strives to control population growth through general development, sociocultural, economic, and environmental reform, and maternal-child health and family planning programs. Population policy as it relates to development objectives is discussed, followed by consideration of specific policies adopted and measures taken to address above-mentioned problematic demographic indicators. The status of women and population data systems are also explored.
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  9. 9
    071952

    Mongolia.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    In: World population policies. Volume II. Gabon to Norway, [compiled by] United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division. New York, New York, United Nations, 1989. 182-5. (Population Studies No. 102/Add.1; ST/ESA/SER.A/102/Add.1)

    Mongolia's 1985 population of 1,908,000 is projected to grow to 4,539,000 by the year 2025. In 1985, 41.6% of the population was aged 0-14 years, while 5.2% were over the age of 60. @28.5% and 9.0% are projected to be in these respective age groups by the year 2025. The rate of natural increase will have declined from 27.4 to 15.4 over the period. Life expectancy should increase from 62.0 to 74.1 years, the crude death rate will decrease from 8.5 to 5.1, while infant mortality will decline from 53.0 to 17.5. The fertility rate will decline over the period from 5.1 to 2.5, with a corresponding drop in the crude birth rate from 35.9 to 20.6. Urban population will increase form 50.8% in 1985 to 69.6% overall by the year 2025. Immigration, emigration, and spatial distribution are considered to be acceptable by the government, while population growth, morbidity, mortality, and fertility are not. Mongolia has an explicit population policy. Efforts to modify demographic variable are linked with steps toward social and economic restructuring, with a higher rate of population growth considered central to socioeconomic development. To effect such change, policy aims to reduce mortality and improve spatial distribution. Population policy as it related to development objectives is discussed, followed by consideration of specific policies adopted and measures taken to address above-mentioned problematic demographic indicators. The status of women and population data systems are also explored.
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  10. 10
    071863

    China.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    In: World population policies. Volume I. Afghanistan to France, [compiled by] United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division. New York, New York, United Nations, 1987. 126-9. (Population Studies No. 102; ST/ESA/SER.A/102)

    China's 1985 population of 1,059,521,000 is projected to grown to 1,475,159,000 by the year 2025. In 1985, 29.7% of the population was aged 0-14 years, while 8.2% were over the age of 60. 19.5% and 19.3% are projected to be in these respective age groups by the year 2025. The rate of natural increase will have declined from 12.3 to 5.3 over the period. Life expectancy should increase from 67.8 to 75.7 years, the crude death rate will increase from 6.7 to 8.7, while infant mortality will decline from 39.3 to 11.4. The fertility rate will decline over the period from 2.4 to 2.1, with a corresponding drop in the crude birth rate from 19.0 to 24.0. The 1985 contraceptive prevalence rate was 74.0 while the 1982 female mean age at 1st marriages was 22.4 years. Urban population will increase from 20.6% in 1985 to 43.6% overall by the year 2025. Immigration, emigration, and spatial distribution are considered to be acceptable by the government, while morbidity, mortality, and too high population growth, and fertility are not. China has an explicit population policy. Controlling population growth is a major government objective. Family planning, population education, socioeconomic development are stressed with particular attention to limiting fertility while ensuring health births. Population policy as it relates to development objectives is discussed, followed by consideration of specific policies adopted and measures taken to address above-mentioned problematic demographic indicators. The status of women and population data systems are also explored.
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  11. 11
    071854

    Burma.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    In: World population policies. Volume I. Afghanistan to France, [compiled by] United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division. New York, New York, United Nations, 1987. 90-3. (Population Studies No. 102; ST/ESA/SER.A/102)

    Burma's 1985 population of 37,153,000 is projected to grown to 65,960,000 by the year 2025. In 1985, 37.6% of the population was aged 0-14 years, while 6.7% were over the age of 60. 24.1% and 12.3% are projected to be in these respective age groups by the year 2025. The rate of natural increase will he declined from 19.4 to 10.0 over the period. Life expectancy should increase from 57.5 to 72.6 years, the crude death rate will decrease from 11.0 to 7.0, while infant mortality will decline from 70.0 to 20.2. The fertility rate will decline over the period from 4.1 to 2.2, with a corresponding drop in the crude birth rate from 30.5 to 17.0. The 1980 contraceptive prevalence rate was 5.0, while the 1983 female mean age at 1st marriage was 22.4 years. Urban population will increase from 23.9% in 1985 to 47.1% overall by the year 2025. Population growth, fertility, immigration, emigration, and spatial distribution are considered to be acceptable by the government, while morbidity and mortality are not. Burma does not have an explicit population policy. The government emphasizes policy to both ensure population health and stimulate social and economic development. Population policy as it relates to development objectives is discussed, followed by consideration of specific policies adopted and measures taken to address above-mentioned problematic demographic indicators. The status of women and population data systems are also explored.
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  12. 12
    071851

    Brunei Darussalam.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    In: World population policies. Volume I. Afghanistan to France, [compiled by] United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division. New York, New York, United Nations, 1987. 78-81. (Population Studies No. 102; ST/ESA/SER.A/102)

    Brunei Darussalam's 1985 population of 236,000 is projected to grow to 369,000 by the year 2025. In 1985, 4.0% of the population was aged 0-14 years. The rate of natural increase was 25,0, life expectancy 73.0 years, crude death rate 4.0, infant mortality 12.0, and crude birth rate 29.0. Urban population was 58.0%. Population growth, mortality, fertility, immigration, emigration, and spatial distribution are considered to be acceptable by the government. Brunei Darussalam does not have an explicit population policy. The government does, however, aim to provide health care for all by the year 2000, and to regulate temporary labor migration. Population growth is welcomed as a means of ensuring the country's national security while providing needed labor. Population policy as it relates to development objectives is discussed, followed by consideration of specific policies adopted and measures taken to address above-mentioned problematic demographic indicators. The status of women and population data systems are also explored.
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  13. 13
    073670

    Contraceptive requirements and logistics management needs in Pakistan.

    United Nations Population Fund [UNFPA]

    New York, New York, UNFPA, [1992]. vii, 91 p. (Report)

    An UNFPA team visited Pakistan in 1991 to evaluate Pakistan's contraceptive requirements and logistics management needs through 2000. It discussed its findings in a report. The 1st demographic projection conducted by the team estimated population growth rates of 2.6% in 1997-1998 and 2.5% in 1999-2000. In order for this projection to actually occur, the contraceptive prevalence rate in Pakistan must increase 3%/year. Yet this rate has hardly ever lasted in a country beyond 5 years. Further, to make it possible for a 3% increase/year, Pakistan needs US$ 17 million worth of contraceptives/years. It presumes contraceptive costs, excluding sterilization and the commercial sector, of US$ 39 million/year. The 2nd demographic projection resulted in a 2% increase/year in contraceptive prevalence. Several countries have been able to maintain this rate for at least 10 years. This projection estimated a population growth rate of 2.68%/year. It needs US$ 14 in contraceptives each year. Contraceptive costs would be US$ 35 million. The team also used procurement analysis tables to determine contraceptive needs. They predicted US$ 18 million of additional contraceptives for the rest of fiscal 1991-1992 and the next 2 fiscal years. Donors appeared to be interested in carrying on needed management information system technical assistance. The current logistics management of moving contraceptive stocks from the Ministry of Population Welfare to Ministry of Health outlets tended to problematic. The team suggested that UNFPA help the government coordinate procurement of donated contraceptives. Further UNFPA should encourage early implementation of an IUD follow up study and inform donors on the effect of recent price increases for oral contraceptives (OCs) and condoms. Plants in Pakistan manufacture or package OCs and injectables and Pakistan will eventually be self sufficient in OCs and injectables. The team did not foresee immediate local condom production, however.
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  14. 14
    071903

    Indonesia.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    In: World population policies. Volume II. Gabon to Norway, [compiled by] United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division. New York, New York, United Nations, 1989. 66-9. (Population Studies No. 102/Add.1; ST/ESA/SER.A/102/Add.1)

    Indonesia's 1985 population of 166,440,000 is projected to grow to 272,744,000 by the year 2025. In 1985, 38.7% of the population was aged 0-14 years, while 5.6% were over the age of 60. 22.6% and 13.1% are projected to be in these respective age groups by the year 2025. The rate of natural increase will have declined from 19.5 to 8.0 over the period. Life expectancy should increase from 53.5 to 70.8 years, the crude death rate will decrease from 12.6 to 7.9, while infant mortality will decline from 84.4 to 26.2. The fertility rate will decline over the period from 4.1 to 2.0, with a corresponding drop in the crude birth rate from 32.1 to 15.9. the 1985 contraceptive prevalence rate was 38.0, while the 1980 female mean age at 1st marriage was 20.0 years. Urban population will increase from 25.3% in 1985 to 55.9% overall by the year 2025. Immigration and emigration are considered to be acceptable by the government, while population growth, morbidity, mortality, fertility, and spatial distribution are not. Indonesia has an explicit population policy. Central objectives include reducing fertility and population growth, readjusting population distribution, and improving employment opportunities and living conditions. Population policy as it relates to development objectives is discussed, followed by consideration of specific policies adopted and measures taken to address above-mentioned problematic demographic indicators. The status of women and population data systems are also explored.
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  15. 15
    071902

    India.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    In: World population policies. Volume II. Gabon to Norway, [compiled by] United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division. New York, New York, United Nations, 1989. 62-5. (Population Studies No. 102/Add.1; ST/ESA/SER.A/102/Add.1)

    India's 1985 population of 758,927,000 is projected to grow to 1,228,829,000 by the year 2025. In 1985, 36.8% of the population was aged 0-14 years, while 6.8% were over the age of 60. 21.3% and 14.4% are projected to be in these respective age groups by the year 2025. The rate of natural increase will have declined from 19.4 to 7.0 over the period. Life expectancy should increase from 55.4 to 71.6 years, the crude death rate will decrease from 12.3 to 7.7, while infant mortality will decline from 110.3 to 34.5. The fertility rate will decline over the period from 4.3 to 1.9, with a corresponding drop in the crude birth rate from 31.7 to 14.8. The 1980 contraceptive prevalence rate was 34.0, while the 1981 female mean age at 1st marriage was 18.7 years. Urban population will increase from 25.5% in 1985 to 53.6% overall by the year 2025. Immigration, emigration, and spatial distribution are considered to be acceptable by the government, while population growth, morbidity, mortality, and fertility are not. India has an explicit population policy. To reduce population growth, policy aims to reduce fertility, morbidity, and mortality, foster social and economic advancement through industrial, agricultural, and rural development programs. Population policy as it relates to development objectives is discussed, followed by consideration of specific policies adopted and measures taken to address above-mentioned problematic demographic indicators. The status of women and population data systems are also explored.
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  16. 16
    071873

    Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    166-9.

    The Democratic People's Republic of Korea's 1985 population of 20,385,000 is projected to grow to 39,594,000 by the year 2025. In 1985, 38.7% of the population was aged 0-14 years, while 5.7% were over the age of 60. 23.6% and 12.5% are projected to be in these respective age groups by the year 2025. The rate of natural increase will have declined from 24.6 to 10.4 over the period. Life expectancy should increase from 67.7 to 75.9 years, the crude death rate will decrease from 6.0 to 5.8, while infant mortality will decline from 29.7 to 8.3. The fertility rate will decline over the period from 4.0 to 2.1, with a corresponding drop in the crude birth rate from 30.5 to 16.1. Urban population will increase from 63.8% in 1985 to 82.5% overall by the year 2025. Fertility, immigration, emigration, spatial distribution are considered to be acceptable by the government, while population growth, morbidity, and mortality are not. Democratic People's Republic of Korea has an explicit population policy. The government directly intervenes to increase the population growth rate. Related policy aims to improve living standards and health conditions, provide free medical care, eliminate unemployment and underemployment, promote broader women's participation, and provide free and proper education for the entire population. Population policy as it relates to development objectives is discussed, followed by consideration of specific policies adopted and measures taken to address above-mentioned problematic demographic indicators. The status of women and population data systems are also explored.
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  17. 17
    070203

    Thailand.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    In: World population policies. Volume III. Oman to Zimbabwe, compiled by United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division. New York, New York, United Nations, 1990. 142-5. (Population Studies No. 102/Add.2; ST/ESA/SER.A/102/Add.2)

    Thailand;s 1985 population of 51,604,000 is projected to grow to 80,911,000 by the year 2025. In 1985, 36.5% of the population was aged 0-14 years, while 5.6% were over the age of 60. 21.0% and 15.5% are projected to be in these respective age groups by the year 2025. The rate of natural increase will have declined from 19.9 to 7.0 over the period. Life expectancy should increase from 62.7 to 74.6 years, the crude death rate will decrease from 8.0 to 7.4, while infant mortality will decline from 48.0 to 13.0. The fertility rate will decline over the period from 3.5 to 2.1, with a corresponding drop in the crude birth rate from 27.8 to 14.4. The 1987 contraceptive prevalence rate was 65.5, while the 1980 female mean age at 1st marriage was 22.7 years. Urban population will increase from 19.8% in 1985 to 49.2% overall by the year 2025. Insignificant international migration is considered to be acceptable by the government, while high population growth, mortality, morbidity, fertility, and spatial distribution are not. Thailand has an explicit population policy. Encouraging the voluntary acceptance of family planning and the notion of a small family ideal, policy supports a reduction in the rate of population growth. Health and socioeconomic objectives as well as a balanced population distribution are also included as well as balanced population distribution are also included under the rubric of population policy. Population policy as it relates to development objectives is discussed, followed by consideration of specific policies adopted and measures taken to address above mentioned problematic demographic indicators. The status of women and population data systems are also explored.
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  18. 18
    070185

    Sri Lanka.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    In: World population policies. Volume III. Oman to Zimbabwe, compiled by United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division. New York, New York, United Nations, 1990. 114-7. (Population Studies No. 102/Add.2; ST/ESA/SER.A/102/Add.2)

    Sri Lanka's 1985 population of 16,108,000 is projected to grown to 24,449,000 by the year 2025. In 1985, 34.1% of the population was aged 0-14 years, while 71.1% were over the age of 60. 21.6% and 17.2% are projected to be in these respective age groups by the year 2025. The rate of natural increase will have declined from 20.5 to 7.5 over the period. Life expectancy should increase from 68.9 to 77.2 years, the crude death rate will increase from 6.3 to 7.2, while infant mortality will decline from 39.0 to 13.0. The fertility rate will decline over the period from 3.3 to 2.1, with a corresponding drop in the crude birth rate from 26.9 to 14.7. The 1987 contraceptive prevalence rate was 62.0, while the 1981 female mean age at 1st marriage was 24.4 years. Urban population will increase from 21.1% n 1985 to 42.6% overall by he year 2025. Insignificant levels of international migration and spatial distribution are considered to be acceptable by the government, while high population growth, mortality, morbidity, and fertility are not. Sri Lanka has an explicit population policy. It aims to reduce population growth and adjust the age structure by lowering fertility and infant and child mortality. Strengthened and expanded family planning services, financial incentives for women using IUDs, and population education are components of this approach. Population policy as it related to development objectives is discussed, followed by consideration of specific policies adopted and measures taken to address above-mentioned problematic demographic indicators. The status of women and population data systems are also explored.
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  19. 19
    070180

    Singapore.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    In: World population policies. Volume III. Oman to Zimbabwe, compiled by United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division. New York, New York, United Nations, 1990. 94-7. (Population Studies No. 102/Add.2; ST/ESA/SER.A/102/Add.2)

    Singapore's 1985 population of 2,559,000 is projected to grown to 3,239,000 by the year 2025. In 1985, 24.5% of the population was aged 0-14 years, while 7.7% were over the age of 60. 16.6% and 27.0% are projected to be in these respective age groups by the year 2025. The rate of natural increase will have declined from 11.6 to 1.2 over the period. Life expectancy should increase from 71.8 to 1.2 over the period. Life expectancy should increase from 71.8 to 78.3 years, the crude death rate will increase from 5.4 to 9.8, while infant mortality will decline from 10.0 to 5.0. The fertility rate will rise over the period from 1.7 to 1.8, with a corresponding drop in the crude birth rate from 17.0 to 11.0. The 1982 contraceptive prevalence rate was 74.2, while the 1980 female mean age at 1st marriage was 26.2 years. Population growth, mortality, morbidity, and insignificant international migration are considered to be acceptable by the government, while low fertility is not. Singapore has an explicit population policy. Higher fertility is desired, especially among more educated women. Accordingly, as of 1985, the government abandoned its 2-child family policy in favor of a new program offering incentives for couples to have at least 3 children. Higher fertility is encouraged for the entire population. Complementary programs promote social and economic advancement. Population policy as it related to development objectives is discussed, followed by consideration of specific policies adopted and measures taken to address above-mentioned problematic demographic indicators. The status of women and population data systems are also explored.
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  20. 20
    070169

    Republic of Korea.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    In: World population policies. Volume III. Oman to Zimbabwe, compiled by United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division. New York, New York, United Nations, 1990. 42-5. (Population Studies No. 102/Add.2; ST/ESA/SER.A/102/Add.2)

    The republic of Korea's 1985 population of 41,056,000 is projected to grow to 54,627,000 by the year 2025. In 1985, 30.0% of the population was aged 0-14 years, while 6.8% were over the age of 60. 17.5% and 20.7% are projected to be in these respective age groups by the year 2025. The rate of natural increase will have declined from 15.0 to 2.7 over the period. Life expectancy should increase from 67.7 to 76.6 years, the crude death rate will increase from 6.3 to 8.9, while infant mortality will decline from 30.0 to 8.0. The fertility rate will decline over the period from 2.4 to 1.8, with a corresponding drop in the crude birth rate from 21.3 to 11.6. The 1988 contraceptive prevalence rate was 77.0, while the 1980 female mean age at 1st marriage was 24.1 years. Urban population will increase from 65.3% in 1985 to 87.9% overall by the year 2025. Fertility, international migration, and spatial distribution are considered to be acceptable by the government, while population growth and mortality are not. The Republic of Korea has an explicit population policy. It is aimed primarily at reducing population growth, yet also extends to more broad welfare-oriented policy, spatial distribution, improving social equity and the status of women, and securing the welfare of the aged. While success has been met from efforts to modify fertility and mortality, family planning efforts have been bolstered with hopes of gaining further reductions in fertility. Population policy as it related to development objectives is discussed, followed by consideration of specific policies adopted and measures taken to address above-mentioned problematic demographic indicators. The status of women and population data systems are also explored.
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  21. 21
    070165

    Philippines.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    In: World population policies. Volume III. Oman to Zimbabwe, compiled by United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division. New York, New York, United Nations, 1990. 26-9. (Population Studies No. 102/Add.2; ST/ESA/SER.A/102/Add.2)

    The Philippines' 1985 population of 55,120,000 is projected to grow to 111,393,000 by the year 2025. In 1985, 41.1% of the population was aged 0-14 years, while 5.2% were over the age of 60. 24.9% and 10.6% are projected to be in these respective age groups by the year 2025. The rate of natural increase will have declined from 27.1 to 11.3 over the period. Life expectancy should increase from 61.9 to 72.7 years, the crude death rate will decrease from 8.5 to 6.1, while infant mortality will decline from 51.0 to 17.0. The fertility rate will decline over the period from 4.7 to 2.1, with a corresponding drop in the crude birth rate from 35.6 to 17.4. The 1986 contraceptive prevalence rate was 45.3, while the 1980 female mean age at 1st marriage was 22.4 years. Urban population will increase from 29.6% in 1985 to 66.1% overall by the year 2025. Immigration is considered to be acceptable by the government, while population growth, mortality, morbidity, fertility, emigration, and spatial distribution are not. The Philippines has an explicit population policy. A decentralized population program was adopted in 1988, stressing the importance of family and family welfare, responsible parenthood, the reduction of fertility, and the integration of population factors within development planning. Improving population health, providing primary health care, adjusting patterns of spatial distribution, and bolstering the overall quality of life for all are major policy objectives. Population policy as it relates to development objectives is discussed, followed by consideration of specific policies adopted and measures taken to address above-mentioned problematic demographic indicators. The status of women and population data systems are also explored.
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  22. 22
    070160

    Pakistan.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    In: World population policies. Volume III. Oman to Zimbabwe, compiled by United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division. New York, New York, United Nations, 1990. 6-9. (Population Studies No. 102/Add.2; ST/ESA/SER.A/102/Add.2)

    Pakistan's 1985 population of 103,241,000 is projected to grow to 267,089,000 by the year 2025. In 1985, 44.6% of the population was aged 0-14 years, while 4.4% were over the age of 60. 28.4% and 8.0% are projected to be in these respective age groups by the year 2025. The rate of natural increase will have declined from 36.0 to 14.7 over the period. Life expectancy should increase from 54.0 to 70.7 years, the crude death rate will decrease from 14.4 to 5.4, while infant mortality will decline from 120.0 to 43.0. The fertility rate will decline over the period from 7.0 to 2.3, with a corresponding drop in the crude birth rate from 50.3 to 20.1. The 1984/85 contraceptive prevalence rate was 7.6, while the 1981 female mean age at 1st marriage was 19.8 years. Urban population will increase from 29.8% in 1985 to 56.7% overall by the year 2025. Emigration and spatial distribution are considered to be acceptable by the government, while population growth, mortality, fertility, and immigration are not. Pakistan has an explicit population policy. Efforts are under way to reduce illiteracy and unemployment, improve health conditions, and lower fertility through family planning programs. Such steps are fully integrated components of broader social and economic planning. Population policy as it relates to development objectives is discussed, followed by consideration of specific policies adopted and measures taken to address above-mentioned problematic demographic indicators. The status of women and population data systems are also explored.
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  23. 23
    069007

    South Asia's future population: are there really grounds for optimism?

    Leete R; Jones G

    International Family Planning Perspectives. 1991 Sep; 17(3):108-13.

    South Asia consisting of Bangladesh, India, Nepal Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, claims 1/5 to total world population with expected population growth of at least 200 million by the year 2000. Taking issue with assumptions behind World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN) population projections for the region, the authors make less optimistic assumptions of country fertility and mortality trends when running population projections for the region. Following discussion of methodological issues for and analysis of population projections, the paper's alternate assumptions and projection results are presented and discussed. Projections were made for each country of the region over the period 1985-2010, based on assumptions that only very modest fertility declines and improvements in life expectancy would develop over most of the 1990s. South Asian population would therefore grow from over 1 billion in 1985, to 1.4 billion by 2000, and almost 1.8 billion by 2010. Overall slower fertility decline than assumed for the UN and WB projections point to larger population growth with momentum for continued, larger growth through the 21st century. Rapid, substantial population growth as envisioned by these projections will impede movement toward an urban-industrial economy, with a burgeoning labor force exceeding the absorptive capacity of the modern sector. Job seekers will pile up in agriculture and the informal sector. Demands upon the government to deliver education and health services will also be extraordinarily high. High-tech niches will, however, continue expanding in India and Pakistan with overall negative social effects. Their low demand for labor will exacerbate income disparities, fuel interpersonal, interclass, and interregional tensions, and only contribute to eventual ethnic, communal, and political conflict. Immediate, coordinated policy is urged to achieve balanced low mortality and low fertility over the next few decades.
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  24. 24
    091371

    Population structure.

    Kono S

    POPULATION BULLETIN OF THE UNITED NATIONS. 1989; (27):108-24.

    This paper reviews recent new trends in population structure in the world and its major regions in order to access the determinants of those trends and explore issues regarding the recent and projected changes in the age structure of population and the relationships of those changes to social and economic development. In particular, the paper compares the change in age structure projected by the Population Division of the UN Secretariat in its most recent 3 series--namely, those completed in 1984, 1986, and 1988. By and large, the most recent UN assessment projects that a larger proportion of the world population will be aged 60 and over in 2000 and 2025 than was previously estimated. Those changes in projections can be observed for the world and for the more developed countries as a whole, and for the regions of Africa, Latin America, Northern America, East Asia, Europe, and Oceania. While the recommendations of the International Conference on Population called attention to the importance of changes in population structure, this paper recommends urgent government action in planning social programs for the aged because of the greater eminence of population aging in many settings. The case of Japan is used to illustrate the growing importance of increases in life expectancy as a determinant of age structure changes (in relation to fertility decline), a point that is reinforced through a cruder decomposition of UN estimates and projections for several European countries. (author's)
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  25. 25
    047187

    Projecting a world of 10.4 billion.

    Yanagishita M

    POPULATION TODAY. 1988 Jan; 16(1):3-4.

    Summary data are presented from the World Bank's "World Population 1987-88: Short and Long-Term Estimates by Age and Sex with Related Demographic Statistics." The projections do not differ much from those in the World Bank's 1985 projection except for large upward revisions for South Asian and West Asian countries and especially large upward revisions for Kenya, Ethiopia, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, and Egypt. World population is expected to reach 10.4 billion in 2100 and to stabilize at 10 billion around year 2070. Intermediate figures are given for year 2000 (6.2 billion) and year 2050 (9.5 billion). The fifteen most populous countries in 2100 will be (in millions) China (1683), India (1678), Nigeria (529), Pakistan (395), USSR (385), Indonesia (363), Brazil (292), US (279), Ethiopia (204), Mexico (197), Iran (157), Philippines (137), Egypt (132), Japan (124), and Tanzania (123). The world's annual growth rate (currently 1.7%) will decrease to .9% in 2025 and .07% in 2100 due to decreasing birth rates, especially in Africa. Nevertheless, the population of Sub-Saharan Africa will be 5 times its present size. The slowest annual growth will be for Europe, North America, and China; and the highest for Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Bangladesh.
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