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  1. 1

    World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, Highlights and Advance Tables.

    United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    New York, United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division, 2012. 118 p. (Working Paper No. ESA/P/WP.228)

    The 2012 Revision is the twenty-third round of official United Nations population estimates and projections, prepared by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. The 2012 Revision builds on the previous revision by incorporating the results of the 2010 round of national population censuses as well as findings from recent specialized demographic surveys that have been carried out around the world. These sources provide both demographic and other information to assess the progress made in achieving the internationally agreed development goals, including the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The comprehensive review of past worldwide demographic trends and future prospects presented in the 2012 Revision provides the population basis for the assessment of those goals. The results of the 2012 Revision incorporate the findings of the most recent national population censuses, including from the 2010 round of censuses, and of numerous specialized population surveys carried out around the world. The 2012 Revision provides the demographic data and indicators to assess trends at the global, regional and national levels and to calculate many other key indicators commonly used by the United Nations system.
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  2. 2

    World population prospects: the 2006 revision. Highlights.

    United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    New York, New York, United Nations, 2007. [118] p. (ESA/P/WP.202)

    The 2006 Revision is the twentieth round of official United Nations population estimates and projections prepared by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. These are used throughout the United Nations system as the basis for activities requiring population information. The 2006 Revision builds on the 2004 Revision and incorporates both the results of the 2000 round of national population censuses and of recent specialized surveys carried around the world. These sources provide both demographic and other information to assess the progress made in achieving the internationally agreed development goals, including the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The comprehensive review of past worldwide demographic trends and future prospects presented in the 2006 Revision provides the population basis for the assessment of those goals. According to the 2006 Revision, the world population will likely increase by 2.5 billion over the next 43years, passing from the current 6.7 billion to 9.2 billion in 2050. This increase is equivalent to the size the world population had in 1950 and it will be absorbed mostly by the less developed regions, whose population is projected to rise from 5.4 billion in 2007 to 7.9 billion in 2050. In contrast, the population of the more developed regions is expected to remain largely unchanged at 1.2 billion and would have declined were it not for the projected net migration from developing to developed countries, which is expected to average 2.3 million persons annually. (excerpt)
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  3. 3

    UN projects world population at 9 billion by 2300.

    United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    Population 2005. 2004 Dec; 6(4):7-8.

    In a report issued in November, the Population Division of the UN’s Department of Economic and Social Affairs has estimated that the world’s population may stabilize at about 9 billion by the year 2300. The document, World Population 2300, provides extensive data showing low, medium and high projections for each country of the world. All projected scenarios share the same assumptions about steady decline of mortality after 2050, increase in life expectancy, and zero international migration after 2050. The scenarios are based on assumptions for 2050, which were set out in the UN’s World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision, Volumes I and II. The following major findings are excerpted from the report. (excerpt)
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  4. 4

    U.N. predicts world population of 8.9 billion in 2050.

    United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    Population 2005. 2003 Jun; 5(2):1-4.

    The 2002 Revision of the official United Nations population estimates and projections, which has been issued recently, projects a world population of 8.9 billion in 2050 rather than 9.3 billion projected in the 2000 revision. About half of the 0.4 billion difference in these projected populations results from an increase in the number of projected deaths, the majority stemming from higher projected levels of HIV prevalence. The other half of the difference reflects a reduction in the projected number of births, primarily as a result of lower expected future fertility levels. Despite the lower fertility levels projected and the increased mortality risks to which some populations will be subject, the population of the world is expected to increase by 2.6 billion during the next 47 years, from 6.3 billion today to 8.9 billion in 2050. However, the realization of these projections is contingent on ensuring that couples have access to family planning and that efforts to arrest the current spread of the HIV/AIDS epidemic are successful in reducing its growth momentum. The potential for considerable population increase remains high. (excerpt)
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  5. 5

    World population in 2300. Proceedings of the United Nations Expert Meeting on World Population in 2300, United Nations Headquarters, New York.

    United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    New York, New York, United Nations, 2004 Mar 24 x, 36 p. (ESA/P/WP.187/Rev.1)

    In order to address the technical and substantive challenges posed by the preparation of long-range projections at the national level, the Population Division convened two meetings of experts. The first meeting, the Technical Working Group on Long-Range Population Projections, was held at United Nations Headquarters in New York on 30 June 2003 and provided consultation on the proposed assumptions and methodology for the projection exercise. The second meeting, the Expert Meeting on World Population in 2300, was held at United Nations Headquarters on 9 December 2003. Its purpose was to examine the results of the long-range projections and to discuss lessons learned and policy implications. The Expert Group consisted of 30 invited experts participating in their personal capacity. Also attending were staff members of the Population Division and the Statistics Division, both part of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. This document presents the report of the meeting of the Expert Group on World Population in 2300, along with the background paper prepared by the Population Division and the questions addressed by the meeting. The Population Division drew valuable guidance from the deliberations at the meeting as well as from comments submitted in writing by the experts. All of these inputs will be taken into consideration in preparing the final report on the long-range projections, as well as in future projection exercises. The Population Division extends its appreciation to all the experts for their suggestions and contributions to the preparation of the long-range projections. (excerpt)
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  6. 6

    2003 world population data sheet of the Population Reference Bureau. Demographic data and estimates for the countries and regions of the world.

    Population Reference Bureau [PRB]

    Washington, D.C., PRB, 2003. 13 p.

    With every passing year, prospects for population growth in the more developed and less developed countries grow more dissimilar. On this year’s Data Sheet, the total fertility rate (TFR) for the more developed countries is a mere 1.5, compared with 3.1 in the less developed countries—3.5 if outlier China’s large statistical effect is removed. But the passage of time, as well as the difference in fertility rates, is ensuring that the two types of countries can expect to continue to have different population sizes in the future. The decline in Europe’s fertility rates is not a recent phenomenon; those rates have been low for quite some time. As a result, there have been long-term changes to age distributions in Europe, and this “youth dearth” is now taking on a more significant role in the near certainty of population decline. (excerpt)
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  7. 7

    Population growth: a critical decade for South Africa. Revised ed.

    South Africa. Department of National Health and Population Development. Council for Population Development

    Pretoria, South Africa, Dept. of National Health and Population Development, Council for Population Development, 1991 Jun. 21 p.

    This booklet presents 1987 data on global population growth estimates and reiterates some of the main points of the Amsterdam Declaration adopted at the International Forum on Population in the 21st Century. These resolutions recognized mankind's responsibility to the future; acknowledged the link between population, resources, and the environment; expressed concern about rapid growth, especially in the developing world; recognized the central role of women in the development process; and defined the goal of development as improvement in the quality of life. The specter of unrelenting population growth is then considered from the point of view of South Africa, which has an annual growth rate of 2% and a population doubling time of 32 years. The booklet then describes South Africa's Population Development Programme, which was instituted in 1984 to maintain a balance between growth and subsistence resources. Each aspect of the program (education, primary health care, job creation, manpower development, the role of women, rural development, and housing) is then discussed in detail with important concepts defined and the ways in which organizations and individuals can contribute to the realization of the goals delineated.
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  8. 8


    Ad Hoc Group of Experts on Demographic Projections

    In: United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Prospects of population: methodology and assumptions. New York, UN, 1979. 3-10. (Population Studies No. 67; St/ESA/SER/A/67)

    The Ad Hoc Group of experts on Demographic Projections unanimously agreed that the United Nations population projections are a very important and an irreplaceable tool for demographic and economic analyses at the global, regional and national levels. Reasons for their immense value include the following: 1) projections are included for every country and territory of the world; 2) the projections are internationally comparable; 3) over 2/3 of the countries have never prepared official projections of their own; and 4) the methods, assumptions and basic demographic parameters of the projections are presented uniformly. The Group recommended that the current activities of the United Nations in the field of demographic projections should be strengthened. The Group also identified the need for updating the population projections at least once every 5 years and for an interim report to be published whenever population trends and the projections become perceptibly inconsistent. The Group focused on the need for the exploitation and improvement of existing data on the interrelationships between socioeconomic variables and demographic processes. The Group endorsed the use of the general system of projections methodology now in use by the United Nations Secretariat. Attention is directed to improving assumptions of projections -- mortality, fertility and migration -- and to consideration of socioeconomic and policy factors -- models and long-range projections.
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  9. 9

    Population problems and policies in economically advanced countries: report of a conference at Ditchley Park, England, Sept. 29 - Oct. 2, 1972.

    Population Crisis Committee [PCC]; Ditchley Foundation

    Wash., D.C., Population Crisis Committee, 1973. 36 p.

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  10. 10

    Recent population trends and future prospects: report of the Secretary-General.

    United Nations. Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs

    In: The Population Debate: Dimensions and Perspectives, Vol. I. N.Y., U.N., 1975, pp. 3-44. (Population Studies, No. 57)

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  11. 11

    [A model of world population growth as an experiment in systematic research] Model' rosta naseleniya zemli kak opyt sistemnogo issledovaniya.

    Kapitsa S

    VOPROSY STATISTIKI. 1997; (8):46-57.

    A mathematical model was developed for the estimation of global population growth, and the estimates were compared with those of the UN and covered the stretch of 4.4 million years B.C. to the years 2175 and 2500 A.D. The estimates were also broken down into human, geological, and technological historical periods. The model showed that human population would stabilize at the level of 14 billion around 2500 A.D. and 13 billion around 2200 A.D., in accordance with UN projections. It also revealed the history of human population growth through the following stages (UN figures are listed in parentheses): 100,000, about 1.6 million years ago; 5 (1-5) million, 35,000 B.C.; 21 (10-15) million, 7000 B.C.; 46 (47) million, 2000 B.C.; 93 (100-230) million, at the time of Christ; 185 (275-345) million, 1000 A.D.; 366 (450-540) million, 1500 A.D.; 887 (907) million, 1800 A.D.; 1158 (1170) million, 1850 A.D.; 1656 (1650-1710) million, 1900 A.D.; 2812 (2515) million, 1950 A.D.; 5253 (5328) million, 1990 A.D.; 6265 (6261) million, 2000 A.D.; 10,487 (10,019) million, 2050 A.D.; 12,034 (11,186) million, 2100 A.D.; 12,648 (11,543) million, 2150 A.D.; 12,946 (11,600) million, 2200 A.D.; and 13,536 million, 2500 A.D. The model advanced the investigation of phenomena by studying the interactions between economical, technological, social, cultural, and biological processes. The analysis showed that humanity has reached a critical phase in its growth and that development in each period depended on external, not internal, factors. This permits the formulation of the principle of demographic imperative (distinct from the Malthusian principle), which states that resources determine the speed and extent of the growth of population.
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  12. 12

    The sex and age distribution of the world populations. The 1994 revision.

    United Nations. Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis. Population Division

    New York, New York, United Nations, 1994. ix, 858 p. (ST/ESA/SER.A/144)

    The population projections included in this UN volume were based on the 1994 revisions. Projections and estimates were given for national populations and regions. Sex and age distributions were provided for the period 1950-90 and projected figures were provided for 1995-2050. The projections included high, medium, and low fertility variants. Countries were included if their population exceeded 150,000. Smaller countries were included in regional totals only. A full description of methodology and projection assumptions was given in a prior publication, "World Population Prospects: The 1994 Revision." Estimates were derived from available national data and adjusted for deficiencies and inconsistencies. The sex and age structure was set for the base year of 1990 and data was consistent with previous censuses and surveys and past trends in fertility, mortality, and migration.
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  13. 13

    World population 1994. [Wallchart].

    United Nations. Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis. Population Division

    New York, New York, United Nations, Dept. for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis, Population Division, 1994 Aug. [2] p. (ST/ESA/SER.A/142)

    This wall chart tabulates data from the medium variant of the UN population estimates and projections as revised in 1994. Figures are given for the world as a whole and for more developed, less developed, and least developed areas. Data are also provided for regions and for individual countries within those regions. The mid-year population is shown in thousands for 1994, 2015, and 2050. Figures are then detailed for percentage annual growth rate, crude birth rate, crude death rate, total fertility rate, life expectancy at birth, and infant mortality rate for 1990-95. Age distribution (under age 15 years and 65 years or older) and density data are also provided for mid-1994. In addition to the main table, a listing is given of the 10 largest countries in 1994, and bar graphs show world population in millions for 1950-2050 as well as the average annual increase in millions for 1950-2050.
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  14. 14

    A peak of 11.6 billion people -- if decisions are made now.

    In: The reproductive revolution. An international media symposium on world population and development, [compiled by] Organon. Oss, Netherlands, Organon, 1994. 3.

    A medium projection of world population anticipates a total of 10 billion in the year 2050, to reach a plateau of 11.6 billion within the following century. This projection, said Joseph van Arendonk, Deputy Executive Director of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), assumes that the number of children per woman in developing countries will decline and stabilize at 2.1 children between 35 and 55 years from now. However, this peak of 11.6 billion is 1.4 billion higher than a similar projection made in 1980. Between 1990 and 2025, 94% of the world's population growth will come from the developing world. Africa's share in annual population increments will increase from 20% to 38% by 2020-2035. Although the fertility rate in the developing world has declined from 6.1 children per woman in the mid-1960s to 3.9 children in the late-1980s, this decline has slowed to 3.3 in 1990-1995. Furthermore, in Nigeria it was still 6.3 births per woman in 1985-1990. A UNFPA study on contraceptive use and costs in developing countries indicates that their population is expected to increase by almost 950 million to 5365 million by the year 2005. The total of contraceptive users would grow from 446 million in 1994 to 603 million by 2005 in developing countries alone, therefore 4% of official development assistance should be set aside for population programs. Sterilization was used by 200 million in 1994; the IUD by 112 million women; and oral contraceptives by around 70 million women, 50 million in developing countries. Injectables are used by more than 10 million women (13% in sub-Saharan Africa); implants by 1.5 million users (1.3 million in Indonesia); the condom by about 25 million users. The needs of 603 million users in 2005 will require: 196 million sterilizations, 436 million IUD insertions, 898 million injectables, 12.3 billion cycles of pills, and 55 billion condoms. The total cost for the 12-year period is put at $8.1 billion, divided as: pills $2.5 billion, sterilization $2 billion, condoms $2 billion, injectables $907 million, and IUDs $733 million.
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  15. 15

    An end in sight to spiralling growth in world population?

    In: The reproductive revolution. An international media symposium on world population and development, [compiled by] Organon. Oss, Netherlands, Organon, 1994. 1.

    Population growth is likely to begin falling by the mid-21st century, Joseph van Arendonk, Deputy Executive Director of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) told a symposium. Currently, 87 million couples throughout the world wish to use contraception, but have no access to methods or services. 4% of overseas aid, set aside for population programs, would satisfy this unmet need. The average family size in developing countries would stabilize at 2.1 children within the next 55 years if these needs could be met. The global population of 10 billion in the year 2050 would still rise to a plateau of 11.6 billion before the year 2150. At present constant fertility levels global population is expected to rise to 10.4 billion by 2025. Much of this excess population growth in the next century is accounted for by unwanted fertility. According to UNFPA figures, world population is expected to reach the 6 billion mark in 1998. Following UN medium projections global population is expected to rise from 5.3 billion in 1990 to 8.5 billion in 2025; with higher fertility, it will reach 9.1 billion in 2025; and 7.9 billion with low fertility. In the developing world, the fertility rate fell from 6.1 to 3.3 children per woman between the mid-1960s and the mid-1980s and the use of contraception has increased from 10 to 50% of all couples throughout the same period. However, according to a UNFPA forecast contraceptive users must increase from 446 million in 1994 to 603 million in 2005 in developing countries. The costs of providing these contraceptive commodities will increase from $528 million to $752 million. Speakers agreed that the end of high population growth could be reached by meeting the unmet demand for family planning. It is estimated that only 50% of couples in developing countries use contraception. Pramilla Senanayake, of the International Planned Parenthood Federation described a global reproductive revolution.
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  16. 16

    The challenges ahead: from commitment to action.

    Sadik N

    PEOPLE'S PERSPECTIVES. 1994 Mar; (8):9-12.

    Nafis Sadik, the executive director of UNFPA, addressed the Meeting of Eminent Persons on Population and Development in preparation for the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD), 1994 at Tokyo, Japan, 26 January 1994. According to Sadik, there are very firm grounds for concern with respect to the current and projected population situation. From a population of 5.6 billion today, the medium United Nations projections, which assumed continued declines in fertility, indicate a world population of 8.5 billion by the year 2025, and 10 billion by 2050. With slower fertility declines, the high projection reaches 12.5 billion by the year 2050. The difference between the medium and the high projection in 2050 is 2.5 billion: equal to the entire world population in 1950. Nearly all of this growth will be in the developing countries, with implications for human needs, for the physical environment, for national and international security beyond any human experience so far. But there are also some reasons for optimism. Population growth could be much lower than the medium projection. Assuming a sharper fertility decline, population could be slightly under 8 billion in 2050, that is again a difference from the medium projection of about 2.5 billion by 2050. The other major issues Sadik addressed include population and sustainable development; population and the empowerment of women; reproductive rights and family planning; internal and international migration; and preparations for the International Conference on Population and Development in Cairo, in September 1994. Cairo is in fact another important step forward towards sustainable development. In the field of population the task is immense, but Thailand, Indonesia, Colombia, Mexico, and the Republic of Korea have shown the world that it is possible to slow population growth in a fairly short period of time and to meet the reproductive health and family planning needs of individual men and women.
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  17. 17

    Population: the critical decade.

    Camp SL

    FOREIGN POLICY. 1993 Spring; (90):126-44.

    World population is growing by 1 billion people every 11 years. The decade of the 1990s presents the last chance to stabilize human populations by the middle of the 21st century, through humane and voluntary measures, at something less than double the current world population of 5.4 billion. At the 1984 UN International Conference on Population (held in Mexico City), the official delegation of the US presented a White House-drafted statement that declared population, growth a neutral phenomenon and labeled government policies to deal with it an overreaction. The US policy reversal at Mexico City was followed, later in 1984, by a decision to end 17 years of US support for the International Planned Parenthood Federation and then, in 1986, by the withdrawal of all support from the UN Population Fund. More than 95% of future growth will occur in the developing countries of Africa, Asia, and Latin America. The majority of developing countries outside of East Asia still have annual population growth rates of between 2.5 and 3.5%. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that without major conservation efforts, developing countries could experience an almost 30% decline in agricultural productivity by the end of the next century, when their populations may have increased 4- to 6-fold. In sub-Saharan Africa, with food production growing at 2% and population growing at 3%, per capita food production has dropped 15-20% since 1970. In the Asian and Latin American countries, the number of current and prospective contraceptive users is approaching an average 75% of fertile-age couples. For most developing countries, including Colombia, Mexico, South Korea. Thailand, and Tunisia, organized family planning programs have accounted for 40-50% of the fertility decreases to date, according to regression analysis. In the fall of 1991, when a new foreign aid authorization could not be passed, 58% of Americans wanted the US government to resume support of the UN Population Fund.
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  18. 18

    The United Nations' long-range population projections.

    McNicoll G

    POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW. 1992 Jun; 18(2):333-40, 394, 396.

    Population projections to 2150 have been prepared by the Population Division of the United Nations, based on the Division's 1990 assessment of world population. These projections are described and compared to earlier UN series and analogous projections published by the World Bank. In the medium variant, widely used as a 'best guess' of the demographic future, world population reaches 10 billion by 2050 but adds only another 1.5 billion over the 100 years following. Low and high variant totals, defined by long-run fertility levels of 1.7 and 2.5 lifetime births per woman, are 8 and 12.5 billion in 2050 and 4 and 28 billion in 2150. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA) (EXCERPT)
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  19. 19

    Population and vital statistics report. Data available as of 1 January 1992.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Statistical Office

    New York, New York, United Nations, 1992. [2], 21 p. (ST/ESA/STAT/SER.A/180)

    The Population Division of the UN Secretariat presents 1990 and 1991 estimates of world and continental population. 1990 population estimates are made for 230 countries or areas of the world, and are presented along with results of latest nationwide population censuses, official population estimates, and where possible nationally representative statistics on live births, deaths, and infant deaths for the most recent available years. Sample survey results are used where population censuses have never been conducted. Provisional estimates are presented for mid-1991 population. Estimated population sizes in millions for 1990 and 1991 are, respectively: World 5,292/5,385; Africa 642/662; North America 427/432; South America 297/302; Asia 3,113/3,172; Europe 498/500; Oceania 26/27; and former USSR 289/291. This report supersedes all previous issues, and its itself subject to future updates. Technical notes are made on the latest population censuses, estimates, rates, and quality of registered data prior to reaching the body of statistical information.
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  20. 20

    World urbanization prospects 1990. Estimates and projections of urban and rural populations and of urban agglomerations.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    New York, New York, United Nations, 1991. viii, 223 p. (ST/ESA/SER.A/121)

    This statistical compendium provides revised UN estimates and projections of urban and rural population and urban agglomerations (UAs) for countries, regions, and major areas in the world. Less developed and more developed regions have data on the size and diversity of the urban population, urban and rural growth rates, and the rate of urbanization. The 10 largest UAs (Mexico City, tokyo, Sao Paulo, New York, Shanghai, Los Angeles, Calcutta, Buenos Aires, Bombay, and Seoul in ranked order from high to low in 1990) are discussed in terms of population and rate of change with 8 million or more people as well as % population in UAs. Sources of data by country and data access information are identified. Tables include % of population living in urban areas and urban population, in less developed regions, and in urban areas in Asia for 1990, 2000, and 2025. Also included are data on the annual urban population increase in Latin America, between 1975-90, 1990-2000, and 2000-25; and countries with 75% or greater urban population. The 10 largest UAs are ranked by size decennially 1950-2000, and regional distribution of UAs with 5 million and 8 million or more people. UAs with 8 million or more people are ranked by size decennially 1950-2000 and include average annual rate of change. % of the urban population living in UAs is given by city and region decennially 1950-2000. Tables on the distribution of the population among urban and rural areas by major area, region, and country, every 5 years between 1950-2025, as well as the growth rates and the average annual rate of change urban or rural are also included. The world's 30 largest UAs are ranked by population size decennially 1950-2000. Population and average annual rate of change of UAs of >1 million by country, every 5 years 1950-2000, and the % of the total population residing in UAs, followed by population of capital cities for 1990 are given. Figures show various dimensions of growth rate and mega-city growth rates. The overview is that at mid-1990 45% (2.4 billion) lived in urban areas with 37% in less developed and 735 in more developed areas, with projected increases to 51% in 2000.
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  21. 21

    Population, environment, development: an inseparable troika.

    Wahren C

    POPULI. 1991 Mar; 18(1):4-23.

    As unchecked population growth threatens to increase ecological destruction and poverty, the world seems to have finally acknowledged the need for population programs. Previous development plans for the 3rd World omitted the population factor, but it has now become evident that this unprecedented growth stands in the way of progress. The current world population of 5.3 billion is expected to increase to 6 billion by the year 2000, 95% of the growth occurring in developing nations. UN projects that the world's population will stabilize at 10 billion in the next century, but only if by the year 2035 women worldwide bear an average of 2 children each. Africa and west Asia have the highest annual population growth rates (2.9 and 2.8, respectively), followed by Latin America and southern Asia (2.2%), both of which have begun to move towards reducing fertility. This massive swelling of population places increased pressures on the environment, food availability, and water supplies. Africa's impressive gains in agricultural production have all but been nullified by population growth. During the 1974 World Population Conference in Bucharest, countries recognized the dangers, and since then, much progress has been made. And during the 1984 International Conference on Population held in Mexico City, countries agreed that development and family planning must go hand-in-hand. Many countries (Barbados, China, Cuba, etc.) have had highly successful family planning programs. Studies indicate that 30-50% of the drop in fertility in the Third World can be attributed to family planning. And these successful programs reflect the commitment to social programs, including education, health, and women's status. Still, there are some 300 million couples worldwide who wish to limit fertility but have no access to contraception. Despite the dangers of unchecked population, family planning efforts must respect human rights concerning procreation.
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  22. 22

    [New projections for the world population to the year 2025] Nove projekce obyvatelstva sveta do roku 2025.

    Srb V

    CESKOSLOVENSKA PEDIATRIE. 1988 Mar; 43(3):165-7.

    The 1982 and 1984 population projection program of the United Nations containing estimations for the world's population for 2000-2025 had 3 variations: the median projection figure for 2000 was 6.122 billion and for 2025 8.025 billion. The respective figures of the high estimate were 6.340 and 9.088 billion, and the low estimate envisioned 5.927 and 7.358 billion people, respectively. THe corresponding rate of growth is expected to slow down from 1.67% during 1980-1985 to 1.38% during 2000- 2005, and to drop to 0.96% during 2020-2025. The rate of growth of the global population is to decrease from 37.6% during 1980-2000 to 27.4% during 2000-2020. The difference of the projections of 1982 and 1984 is only 29 million people (8.177 and 8.206, respectively). During the period 2000-2020 the population of Africa is expected to grow to make up 11.5% of the world's population, Europe would make up 10.20% and Asia 58.2%. By 2025 the respective figures would be 19.7%, 6.4%, and 55.3%. The rate of growth of 4 European regions would vary during 1980-2000 and 2000-2025: in Eastern Europe 10% and 7.3%, respectively, in Western Europe 2.0% and 0.0%, in Southern Europe 9.2% and 3.9%, and in Northern Europe 1.6% and -2.8%, respectively. The negative growth figures of the German Democratic Republic were revised from 1982 estimates to show a 2.5% and 2.4% increase during the respective periods. The slight increases (1.8% and 0.2%) projected for Hungary were reversed to zero or negative growth (0.0% and -0.8%). During these periods the growth figures for Czechoslovakia would be 8.3% and 8.0%, for Poland 14.7% and 9.2%, for Romania 15.2% and 11.4%, and for Bulgaria 7.6% and 4.6%, respectively. Life expectancy for the periods 1985-1990 and 2010-2025 is estimated at 61.1 and 70.5 years for the world, and 74.0 and 77.2 years for Europe.
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  23. 23

    All about U.S. immigration statistics.

    Hoefer M

    POPULATION TODAY. 1989 Jan; 17(1):6-8.

    The quality of data collected by the U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS) is assessed, with a focus on differences between U.S. and U.N. definitions of immigrants, emigrants, and refugees. The author suggests that "gaps in migration data collected for the U.S. limit their usefulness for studying international migration and estimating national population change. For example, no information is collected on emigration of legal permanent residents or U.S. citizens, nor is there any direct information on the immigration of U.S. citizens. Data collected on legal immigrants are based on a legal and administrative definition that often conflicts with the demographic definition of an immigrant." (EXCERPT)
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  24. 24

    Liberia: population and development.

    Brown E

    In: The 1984 International Conference on Population: the Liberian experience, [compiled by] Liberia. Ministry of Planning and Economic Affairs. Monrovia, Liberia, Ministry of Planning and Economic Affairs, [1986]. 232-47.

    This paper summarizes those aspects of the 1984 World Development Report which deal with population prospects and policies in Liberia. Sub-Saharan Africa is the only area of the world where there has not yet been any decline in the rate of growth of the population, and Liberia with a population of 2 million and growing at the rate of 3.5%/year has 1 of the highest growth rates in that area. The birth rate is 50/1000 of the population, and the death rate is 14/1000. The fertility rate is nearly 7 children/woman and is not expected to decline to replacement level before year 2030. Infant mortality is 91/1000, and half of all deaths occur among children under 5. Projecting these demographic trends into the future leads to the conclusion that the population will double in 20 years and exceed 6 million by 2030. Although fertility will begin to decline in the 1990s, the population will continue to increase for a few years with the growth rate declining to 2%/year by 2020 and 1.2%/year by 2045. Such rapid population growth will cause great stress on the country's ability to provide food, schools, and health care. For the children themselves, large, poor families, with births spaced too close together, means malnutrition, poor health , and lower intellectual capacity. And the cycle of poverty continues over the generations as the families save less and expend more on the immediate needs of their children. In macroeconomic terms, a growth rate of l2%/year means a massive explosion of need for food, water, energy, housing, health services and education, with a gross domestic product (GDP) growth of only 2%/year; and this projection is probably optimistic. The rural sector will not be able to support the 23% additional rural labor force, which will migrate to the towns, adding to the already high urban growth rate of 5.7%/year from natural increase. In this society, where literacy is only 20% and secondary education completed by only 11% of the girls, it is estimated that only %5 of eligible couples practice birth control despite the fact that it costs less than $1.00 per capita. Government must step in to ensure that resources exist for population planning at county and local levels. Government is responsible for making demographic data accessible and for coordinating population program inputs. Government should also make sure that family planning programs can be implemented through integration with existing health services. A project including restructuring of health care management, financing and delivery, as well as development of a national population policy, has been proposed for World Bank and other international agencies' support.
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  25. 25

    1987 ESCAP population data sheet.

    United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP]. Population Division

    Bangkok, Thailand, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Population Division, 1988. 1 p.

    This sheet gives the 1987 demographic estimates for Asian and Pacific countries and areas. Countries and areas are grouped under ESCAP, East Asia, South-East Asia, South Asia and the Pacific. Estimates are offered for mid-1987 population, average annual growth rate, crude birth rate, crude death rate, total fertility rate, male and female life expectancy at birth, infant mortality rate, % aged 0-14, % aged 65+, density, and population projected to 2010. Also included are 2 charts depicting the estimated and projected population of the ESCAP region by broad age group for 1960, 1985, and 2010, and the estimated and projected total fertility rate of ESCAP subregions, 1960 to 2010. Some estimates for the ESCAP region include a mid-1987 population of 2,805,056,000; a 1.82% average annual growth rate; a 27.5 crude birth rate; a 9.3 crude death rate; a fertility rate of 3.3; male and female life expectancies of 61.8 and 64.1, respectively; an infant mortality rate of 72; 89 persons/square kilometer; 33.5% of the population aged 0-14, 4.8% of the population aged 65+; and a population projected to reach 3,866,375,000 by 2010.
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