Your search found 31 Results

  1. 1

    Fertility rates and population projections: why the United Nations low population projection is best. Draft.

    Seckler D; Cox G

    [Unpublished] 1994 Mar 23. [28] p.

    This paper stems from study on world food needs in the next century. Of course in a study of this nature population projections are essential. The writer used the United Nations medium population projections, illustrated in figure 1, as an authoritative source. Like everyone else of whom we are aware, the author assumed that the United Nations "medium" projection is the best estimate, in the sense of highest probability, in the opinion of the United Nations population experts. Since the medium projection closely corresponds to the World Bank's population projection (they provide only one) through to 2025 the assumption is further justified--and, apparently, supported by the independent opinion of the World Bank experts. (excerpt)
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  2. 2

    UNFPA State of World Population report 2003.

    Population 2005. 2003 Dec; 5(4):7, 8-9.

    Close to half of all of the world’s citizens are under the age of 25. Nearly 20 per cent are adolescents between the ages of 10 and 19. Eighty-seven per cent of these adolescents live in developing countries. The status of their education and health, their readiness to take on adult roles and responsibilities, and the support they receive from their families, communities and governments will have a profound effect on their future. Young people today face varied – and changing – political, economic, social and cultural realities. For many, the certainties of rural traditions are giving way to the complexities of city life. Family structures are gradually changing. Young people are being exposed to new risks and demands. More and more they are obtaining their information about the world and how to behave from their peers and the mass media. A common hope among young people is the wish for a better life. This wish is bolstered by the Millennium Development Goals agreed to by the world leaders in 2000 to decrease extreme poverty and hunger, slow the spread of HIV/AIDS, reduce maternal and child mortality, ensure universal primary education and improve sustainable development by 2015. (excerpt)
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  3. 3

    World population in 2300. Proceedings of the United Nations Expert Meeting on World Population in 2300, United Nations Headquarters, New York.

    United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    New York, New York, United Nations, 2004 Mar 24 x, 36 p. (ESA/P/WP.187/Rev.1)

    In order to address the technical and substantive challenges posed by the preparation of long-range projections at the national level, the Population Division convened two meetings of experts. The first meeting, the Technical Working Group on Long-Range Population Projections, was held at United Nations Headquarters in New York on 30 June 2003 and provided consultation on the proposed assumptions and methodology for the projection exercise. The second meeting, the Expert Meeting on World Population in 2300, was held at United Nations Headquarters on 9 December 2003. Its purpose was to examine the results of the long-range projections and to discuss lessons learned and policy implications. The Expert Group consisted of 30 invited experts participating in their personal capacity. Also attending were staff members of the Population Division and the Statistics Division, both part of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. This document presents the report of the meeting of the Expert Group on World Population in 2300, along with the background paper prepared by the Population Division and the questions addressed by the meeting. The Population Division drew valuable guidance from the deliberations at the meeting as well as from comments submitted in writing by the experts. All of these inputs will be taken into consideration in preparing the final report on the long-range projections, as well as in future projection exercises. The Population Division extends its appreciation to all the experts for their suggestions and contributions to the preparation of the long-range projections. (excerpt)
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  4. 4

    The intricacy of demography and politics: the case of population projections.

    Martinot-Lagarde P

    [Unpublished] 2001. Presented at the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, IUSSP, 24th General Conference, Salvador, Brazil, August 18-24, 2001. 17 p.

    The purpose of this paper is to sketch the common lines of development of both the scientific elaboration of world population projections and the international political debate that prepared the ground for such projections and encouraged their development. A partial history of the elaboration of world population projections has already been written. International population debates from the XIX° and XX° centuries are also under scrutiny. But the link between these two developments has not been fully established. The link between projections and politics work both ways. In one direction, projections can contribute to a rationalization of government in the area of economic development, urban planning and so on. They provide societies with a partial view of their future. In the other direction, population projections cannot be undertaken without the help and support of governments and major international organizations. They rely on accurate and detailed censuses. They are costly and time consuming. At both end of the spectrum, there is a need for a global consensus not only within the scientific community and political arenas for population projections to be computed, received and considered as legitimate. More than many other instruments of demographic analysis, the history of world population projections demonstrate these linkages. (excerpt)
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  5. 5

    Forecasting the unknowable: the U.N. "World Population Prospects: the 2002 Revision".

    Grant L

    Washington, D.C., Negative Population Growth [NPG], 2003 Jun. 8 p. (NPG Forum)

    The United Nations Population Division has put the highlights of its new population estimates and projections onto the Web. Present world population is 6.3 billion. It is projected to rise to 8.9 billion by 2050, a number almost identical to the 1998 projection but 400-million-below-the-2000-version and slightly below the U.S. Census Bureau projection of 9.079 billion. The projection reflects (1) the expectation that fertility is heading below 2.1 in all but the poorest less developed countries (LDCs) and (2) the growing seriousness of AIDS. The new report represents an ongoing effort to bring the projections into line with recent experience. That process is still incomplete. Uncertainties internal and external to the calculations raise several questions: Will European fertility rise as anticipated? Will mortality continue to decline, particularly in the least developed countries, or will it rise and thus eventually bring population growth to a stop through the grim process of rising death rates rather than the benign process of reduced fertility? Do the projections still understate U.S. fertility and population growth? The report makes no effort to analyze the external forces that will affect mortality and migration. (excerpt)
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  6. 6
    Peer Reviewed

    The relationship of long term global temperature change and human fertility.

    Fisch H; Andrews HF; Fisch KS; Golden R; Liberson G

    Medical Hypotheses. 2003 Jul; 61(1):21-22.

    According to the United Nations, global fertility has declined in the last century as reflected by a decline in birth rates. The earth’s surface air temperature has increased considerably and is referred to as global warming. Since changes in temperature are well known to influence fertility we sought to determine if a statistical relationship exists between long-term changes in global air temperatures and birth rates. The most complete and reliable birth rate data in the 20th century was available in 19 industrialized countries. Using bivariate and multiple regression analysis, we compared yearly birth rates from these countries to global air temperatures from 1900 to 1994. A common pattern of change in birth rates was noted for the 19 industrialized countries studied. In general, birth rates declined markedly throughout the century except during the baby boom period of approximately 1940 to 1964. An inverse relationship was found between changes in global temperatures and birth rates in all 19 countries. Controlling for the linear yearly decline in birth rates over time, this relationship remained statistically significant for all the 19 countries in aggregate and in seven countries individually (p <0:05). Conclusions. The results of our analyses are consistent with the underlying premise that temperature change affects fertility and suggests that human fertility may have been influenced by change in environmental temperatures. (author's)
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  7. 7

    Proceeding of the World Population Conference, Rome, Italy, 31 August-10 September 1954. Summary report.

    World Population Conference (1954: Rome)

    New York, United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 1955. 207 p.

    The 1954 World Population Conference was the 1st scientific conference on the problems of population to be held under the auspices of the United Nations. This document describes the organization of the conference and contains a list of the 28 meetings held, the topics of discussion of each meeting, a list of the papers contributed and their authors, and a summary report of each meeting. Annex A provides a list of the officers of the conference and members of cimmittees. Annex B lists the participants and contributors. Topics discussed include mortality trends; demographic statistics--quality, techniques of measurement and analysis; fertility trends; new census undertakings; migration; legislation, administrative programs and services for population control; population projection methods and prospects; preliterate peoples; age distribution; socioeconomic consequences of an aging population; demographic aspects of socioeconomic development; design and control of demographic field studies; agricultural and industrial development; genetics and population; research on fertility and intelligence; social implications of population changes; recruitment and training of demographic researchers and teachers; forecast for world population growth and distribution; and economic and social implications of the present population trends.
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  8. 8

    Knowledge can improve forecasts: a review of selected socioeconomic population projection models.

    Sanderson WC

    Population and Development Review. 1998; 24 Suppl:88-117.

    Since Nathan Keyfitz wrote that knowledge could not improve forecasts, there has been a presumption that causal modeling has little to contribute to demographic forecasting. However, this presumption should be reversed, since combining forecasts from causal models with those of the UN produced more accurate predictions than those of the UN. This occurs because the forecast errors from the causal models and those of the UN are not highly correlated and because the forecasts from the causal model are not less accurate than those of the UN. To support this statement, three different types of causal models were considered: World3 model, Bachue-Philippines and Bachue-Kenya models, and the Wheeler model. The three sections in this paper demonstrate how the application of causal models can improve demographic projections.
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  9. 9

    New UN study likely to restart debate on growth.

    Singh JS

    [Unpublished] 1998 2 p.

    A new UN study offering long-range population projections all the way to the year 2150 is likely to fuel a debate on population growth. The study provides three standard projections: high, low, and medium population growth. Under its high projection, the study predicts that the global population will rise to 11.2 billion, 17.5 billion, and 27.0 billion by 2050, 2100, and 2150, respectively. Conversely, under the low projection, population will increase to 7.7 billion by 2050, decrease to 5.6 billion by 2100, and decline to 3.6 billion by 2150. The medium fertility projection assumes that population will eventually remain constant at just more than 2 children per woman by 2200, with an estimated global population of 11.0 billion. Taking into account this fertility drop and the subsequent increase in population aging, the projected reduction in the labor force, social security and pensions become more important issues than population growth. Issues relating to the impact of population aging on social and economic conditions will be of increasing concern in developing countries. However, with enormous regional disparities in global population growth estimates, population growth shall remain a major phenomenon in the developing world and should be taken into consideration by policy-makers and managers in economic and social sectors.
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  10. 10

    India's population to reach 1.4 billion by 2025. State of the World Population, 1993.


    This article reports on India's population growth and urban crowding in the context of world population growth. World population is described as almost 6 billion, and India's population is expected to be 1.4 billion (1393.9 million) in 2025. Asia has 59% of world population compared to 9% in Latin America and 12% in Africa. These trends in world population in this article are based on the recently released report by the UN Population Fund on the 1993 State of World Population. This report highlights the expected change in China's population, which will be reduced from 37% to 31% of Asia's population. India's share is expected to increase from 27% to 29% of Asia's population. India among Southern Asian nations is one of the lowest investors in health (1.6%) and education (2.5%). Only Pakistan spends less on health (0.7%). India's average population growth rate during 1990-95 is projected to be 1.9% compared to 1.3% in Sri Lanka, 2.7% in Pakistan, 2.4% in Bangladesh, 2.5% in Nepal, and 2.3% in Bhutan. Urban growth during this period is expected to be 2.9% in India. The estimated death rate is 10/1000 in India, and life expectancy is 60 years. Average fertility is 3.9 children, and infant mortality is estimated at 88/1000. Tamil Nadu and Kerala states are representative of lower fertility and progress toward increased literacy, life expectancy, and quality of life. 83% of world population increase is expected to take place in towns and cities. Already Calcutta, Bombay, and Delhi are listed in the top twenty agglomerations. By the year 2000 population is expected to increase to 15.7 million in Calcutta, 15.4 million in Bombay, and 13.2 million in Delhi. 60% of urban growth in the developing world is accounted for by migration. Urban areas are beset by the growing inability to house, feed, and employ their population. Development policies should focus on rural areas.
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  11. 11

    Population dynamics, education and human development: exploring new approaches and methods for estimating social demand.

    Reiff H

    In: Population and development planning. Proceedings of the United Nations International Symposium on Population and Development Planning, Riga, Latvian Soviet Socialist Republic, 4-8 December 1989, [compiled by] United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Development. New York, New York, United Nations, 1993. 262-71. (ST/ESA/SER.R/116)

    New macro-accounting approaches in human resource planning, with examples focusing on educational demands, are discussed. The strategies incorporate population factors into human development planning. Traditional forecasting techniques are inadequate. The measurement of linear progress needs to be adapted for better resource allocation within the educational system. Traditional population and educational enrollment forecasts assume the need to supply social demand. In developing countries, structural adjustment and economic crisis result in reduced primary school enrollments. Social demand declines due to poor quality of the education, teacher absenteeism, and irrelevant curriculum in conditions where poverty and marginalization are widespread. Sub-Saharan African statisticians and planners are having difficulty forecasting enrollment and literacy rates and anticipating informal education needs. Rapid population growth interferes with accurate estimation. Cultural and socioeconomic characteristics may vary widely within target groups. Programs may be too uniform or may be directed inappropriately to the needs of the disadvantaged. New forecasts are needed for determining the population groups in need of education, the present and future role of population and the skills needed, the use of present institutions, and the transfer of skills from schools to other services in society. A simulation of costs of alternative learning for a changing age profile in Malaysia is given. The results indicate that life cycle profiles, although difficult to construct, are useful in measuring education investment over time. A difficulty is encountered in constructing simulations that are close to the social reality. The lessons learned from international cooperation are that the focus must be shifted. The options are to increase the traditional support allotted to census undertakings, population education, and family planning or to maintain the same level of support in the aforementioned areas and increase support for qualitative and quantitative scenario construction, demographic and cultural accounting, and household surveys.
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  12. 12

    World Population Day '93 observed.

    POPULATION BULLETIN. 1993 Jul-Sep; (3):1-2.

    President Abdur Rahman Biswas inaugurated the World Population Day '93 at the Osmani Memorial Hall in Dhaka, Bangladesh, on July 11. He stressed the importance of reducing the national population growth rate from 2.03% in 1923 to 1.82% by the 1995. The event was organized jointly by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, the Directorate of Family Planning, and the United Nations Population fund (UNFPA). The president expressed his deep concern over the population growth rates in developing countries, which are much higher than resources. He noted with satisfaction that 40% of the eligible couples in the country practice family planning (FP) and expressed hope that this could be raised to 50% by 1995. If the program becomes successful, ideal families would consist of two children by 2005. He later presented prizes and certificates to field workers, ulemas, traditional birth attendants, FP depot holders, and the workers of nongovernmental organizations for their commendable services in Fp and maternal-child health services. The Health and Family Welfare minister in his speech warned that if the current population growth is not checked, the consequences would be disastrous, which could be averted by adopting new strategies. The deputy minister for Health and Family Welfare illustrated the threat of population escalation and recounted some of the recent government control measures. The secretary, Ministry of Health Family Welfare, said that at the present rate of growth the Bangladeshi population would double in 34 years. The director general, Directorate of Family Planning, said that the FP program has become accountable with a system of incentives and disincentives. Earlier, the UNFPA country director in his speech remarked that it was crucial for the entire world to solve the population problem. In the morning, in the main cities, hundreds of people involved in national FP activities paraded to demonstrate the social legitimacy of the Bangladeshi Fp program.
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  13. 13

    Interview: Mr. Tevia Abrams, UNFPA Country Director for India.

    ASIA-PACIFIC POPIN BULLETIN. 1991 Dec; 3(4):10-2.

    The government of India set up a population program 25 years ago, yet the population is expected to surpass that of China in the near future. The current UN Population Fund (UNFPA) program for India covers the period 1991-95 with coordination, implementation, and evaluation. Improved services focus on states with high fertility and mortality, high infant mortality, self-reliance in contraceptive production, models for maternal health care and traditional health care, national communication strategy, public awareness enhancement, and raising women's status by female literacy expansion and employment generation. UNFPA trains, provides equipment and contraceptives, and nongovernmental organization participation. The bulk of the $90 million cost of the program will come from UNFPA: maternal-child health, family planning (FP), and information, education, and communication (IEC) will receive the most funding. Ethnic and tribal areas will get attention under a decentralized scheme in accordance with the concept of a multicultural society where early age at marriage and high economic value of children are realities. The Ministry is responsible for IEC and FP targets and allocation of funds. Government institutes and universities carry out population research. The creation of India POPIN patterned after the Asia-Pacific Population Information Network is under development under IEC activities. The status of women is varied throughout India, in the state of Kerala literacy reaches 100%, and the birth rate of 19.8%/1000 women is below the national average of 30.5. In contrast, the states of Bihar and Rajasthan with female literacy of 23% and 21%, respectively, have birth rates of 34.4% and 33.9%.
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  14. 14

    The sex and age distributions of population. The 1990 revision of the United Nations global population estimates and projections.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    New York, New York, United Nations, 1991. viii, 391 p. (Population Studies No. 122; ST/ESA/SER.A/122)

    This statistical report includes the estimated and projected age distribution of the population based on high, medium, and low variants for 152 countries with populations greater than 300,000 between 1950 and 2025 in 5-year intervals. A world total as well as by continents and subregions are available along with the spatial groups; least developed countries, less developed regions (excluding China), the Economic Commission for Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, Asia, and the Pacific, Western Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa. Grouped data reflect countries with populations both greater than and less than 300,000. This revision was begun in 1988 and completed in 1990 by the UN Population Division of the International Economic and Social Affairs Department in conjunction with other UN regional commissions and the Statistical Office. A discussion of methods and data used for these estimates, a summary of findings, and selected demographic indicators will be available in World Population Prospects, 1990, and in summary form in the UN World Population Chart, 1990. A magnetic tape and diskettes of these data are available on request for purchase.
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  15. 15

    Review and appraisal of the World Population Plan of Action, 1989 report.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs

    New York, New York, United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs, 1989. iii, 45 p. (Population Studies No. 115; ST/ESA/SER.A/115)

    The World Population Plan of Action, adopted by the World Population Conference in 1974, requires 5 year evaluations by the United Nations system regarding progress made by Governments in implementing the goals outlined in the Plan. To date 2 reviews and appraisal studies have been done, one in 1974 and one in 1984. The 2nd study was the basis for the International Conference on Population held in Mexico City in 1984. This document is the 3rd review and appraisal report and contains 3 important documents: 1) Council resolution 1989/92; 2) excerpts from the report of the Population Commission on the discussion of the review and appraisal; and 3) the report of the Secretary-General submitted to the Commission. This report is organized into 8 chapters: 1) socio-economic development; 2) the environment and population; 3) the role and status of women; 4) development of population policies; 5) population trends, prospects and goals; 6) promotion of knowledge; 7) role of national governments and the international community; 8) monitoring, review and appraisal of the Plan of Action; and, 9) recommendations for further implementation. Each of these 8 chapters includes a summary of overall trends and tendencies; a description of the most important issues relating to the topic; actions contemplated by the Plan; measures adopted by Governments and the international community and an assessment in implementing the Plan. (Author's modified).
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  16. 16

    Population structure.

    Kono S


    This paper reviews recent new trends in population structure in the world and its major regions in order to access the determinants of those trends and explore issues regarding the recent and projected changes in the age structure of population and the relationships of those changes to social and economic development. In particular, the paper compares the change in age structure projected by the Population Division of the UN Secretariat in its most recent 3 series--namely, those completed in 1984, 1986, and 1988. By and large, the most recent UN assessment projects that a larger proportion of the world population will be aged 60 and over in 2000 and 2025 than was previously estimated. Those changes in projections can be observed for the world and for the more developed countries as a whole, and for the regions of Africa, Latin America, Northern America, East Asia, Europe, and Oceania. While the recommendations of the International Conference on Population called attention to the importance of changes in population structure, this paper recommends urgent government action in planning social programs for the aged because of the greater eminence of population aging in many settings. The case of Japan is used to illustrate the growing importance of increases in life expectancy as a determinant of age structure changes (in relation to fertility decline), a point that is reinforced through a cruder decomposition of UN estimates and projections for several European countries. (author's)
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  17. 17

    State of world population 1987.

    United Nations Fund for Population Activities [UNFPA]

    In: UNFPA: 1986 report, [by] United Nations Fund for Population Activities. New York, New York, UNFPA, 1987. 6-31.

    The implications of population growth and prospects for the future are examined in a 1987 UNFPA report on the state of world population. Demographic patterns in developed and developing countries are compared, as well as life expectancy and mortality rates. Although most countries have passed the stage of maximum growth, Africa's growth rate continues to increase. Changes in world population size are accompanied by population distribution and agricultural productivity changes. On an individual level, the fate of Baby 5 Billion is examined based on population trajectories for a developing country (Kenya, country A), and a developed country of approximately the same size (Korea, country B). The report outlines the hazards that Baby 5 Billion would face in a developing country and explains the better opportunities available in country B. Baby 5 Billion is followed through adolescence and adulthood. Whether the attainment of 5 billion in population is a threat or a triumph is questioned. Several arguments propounding the beneficial social, economic, and environmental effects of unchecked population growth are refuted. In addition, evidence of the serious consequences of deforestation and species extinction is presented. The report concludes with an explanation of the developmental, health and economic benefits of vigorous population control policies, especially in developing countries.
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  18. 18

    WHO's global strategy on AIDS.

    PEOPLE. 1987; 14(3):31.

    At a briefing on acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) held at the World Health Assembly in May 1987, it was announced that the World Health Organization's Special Program on AIDS will provide support to 50 member states during 1987 and 100 states by the end of 1988. A meeting of experts is planned to define criteria for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) screening programs, while another group of experts will develop methodology for assessing HIV seroprevalence. Such guidelines are necessary to enable WHO to determine whether educational programs and other public health interventions are being successful in reducing the spread of HIV. The HIV and AIDS epidemics are considered to represent a global emergency affecting both developed and developing countries. AIDS cases are expected to increase precipitously in the next 5 years, despite public health efforts, and the political and cultural reaction to AIDS is likely to intensify. The increased infant mortality due to AIDS (10-20/1000 live births in areas where 10% of pregnant women are infected with HIV) may cancel out projected improvements in child survival. 10-30% of HIV-infected individuals appear to develop AIDS within 5 years. During the same period, an additional 20-50% develop AIDS-related illnesses. Although the data are limited, it is estimated that 5-10 million people are infected with HIV. By May 1987, 48,527 AIDS cases had been officially reported to WHO from 105 countries.
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  19. 19

    The United Nations manuals for population analysis.

    Isupov A


    Between 1952 and 1983 the United Nations Secretariat, acting on the recommendations of the Population Commission, published 10 manuals on population analysis, evaluation and forecasting. The importance and utility of the manuals has been recognized by demographers and statisticians in a wide range of countries, especially those in the developing regions which do not yet have complete population statistics or a fully developed capability for evaluating demographic information. The manuals continue to be extensively used in both research and applied work on population. Research is being expanded and improvements are being made in population statistics and the technics of data calculation, in accordance with decisions made at the 1974 World Population Conference and the World Population Plan of Action adopted there, and with recommendations of the 1984 International Conference on Population. As a result, there is a growing need for the manuals to be updated and to present methods of conducting a more through analysis of demographic processes in association with economic and social factors, and for the subsequent derivation of, if possible, more realistic assumptions about future trends in population growth. (author's modified)
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  20. 20

    Demographic estimates and projections.

    El-Badry MA; Kono S


    The periodic assessment of global population growth from the past to the future has been one of the UN's most important contributions to member states and many other users. Available data and applicable analysis and projection methods were very limited in 1947, when the 1st global population estimates and projections were attempted. The 1st contributions of the Commission were manuals for these functions. Throughout the 1950s, 4 regional reports on Central and South America; Southeast Asia; and Asia and the far East were published. UN studies during this period tended to group regions by their position on a continuum of the demographic transition. Rough but alarming projections of population growth appeared. Projection technics were refined and standardized in the 1960s, and the demand grew for more specialized technics, e.g. dealing with urban/rural populations; the labor force; and other elements. The availability of computer technology at the end of the decade multiplied the projection capabilities, and the total population projections for the future were larger than ever. The 1970s projections, based on the more accurate and widely covered baseline data which had become available in developing countries, were also aided by more powerful and innovative indirect estimation technics; better software, and computers with larger capacities. By 1982, only a few countries were left with a total lack of data. A revision of estimates and projections is now undertaken biennially, incorporating the latest available data, utilizing advanced analytical methods and computer technology. Methodological manuals have been produced as the by-product of the revisions. UN demographic estimates and projections could be further improved by injection of a probabilistic element and the inclusion of economic factors. Roles for the future include maintenance of regional and interregional comparability of assumptions.
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  21. 21

    The application of economic-demographic models to development planning.

    United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP]. Population Division

    Population Research Leads. 1985; (19):1-15.

    The Population Division's evaluation of the role of population factors in the planning process through the application of economic-demographic models shows that procedures for considering the short and long-term implications of population growth can be significantly improved. The Division's research projects demonstrate that models can help planners to achieve an efficient allocation of scarce resources, set clear-cut national objectives and provide a national sense of political and social purpose. There are many advantages in applying economic-demographic models to development planning in order to integrate population factors within the development process, yet care must be taken in adopting and/or applying a certain model at the national level. Aside from the question of adopting a model, the question of the applicability and application of models is emphasized. The choice of model structure is discussed in terms of 4 major issues: 1) the choice of a central core; 2) the trade-off between simplicity and complexity and the appropriate degree of endogeneity; 3) the choice of a demand or supply orientation; and 4) the criteria for selecting a particular model for use. A representative selection of economic demographic models is presented. Included are the TEMPO (designed to illustrate the benefits of reduced fertility) and Long-Range Planning Models (LAPM--designed to illustrate the implications of policy assumptions for economic development, particularly in regard to health and education), both developed by the US government. Also described are the BACHUE and the UN Fund for Populations Activities (UNFPA)/ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) models. It is argued that these latter models offer the greatest promise as tools for planning in the ESCAP Region, at the present time. As the BACHUE model is primarily concerned with employment and the distribution of income and the UNFPA/FAO model with agriculture, incorporating both into the planning process could be desirable.
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  22. 22

    Report on the evaluation of SEN/77/P04: population/socio-spatial/regional planning (population/amenagement du territoire).

    Fabri MY; Pool DI; Simonen M

    New York, New York, United Nations Fund for Population Activities [UNFPA], 1984 Dec. xiii, 34, [7] p.

    The Senegal population/socio-spatial/regional planning project illustrates a truly integrated approach to population and development planning. The evaluation Mission concluded overall that the project's achievements are positive. The project's main accomplishments have been the establishment of a sophisticated population data bank, the preparation of national and regional population projections, an analysis of migration movements, and the production of related maps and tables using primarily 2ndary data sources. The technical quality and detail of the work undertaken, as well as its potential usefulness, were high. However, the Mission also found that various constraints specific to this project have considerably limited its achievements. These include inadequately formulated project objectives and planned activities, poorly defined conceptual framework, low absorptive capacity of the implementing agency, and severe United Nations Fund for Population Activities budget reductions. The value of the work was found to be lessened because the data assembled have not yet been systematically integrated into other relevant data banks, properly disseminated or utilized. The Mission recommended measures which will help conserve the valuable data bank and other results of the project and will assist in the transfer to nationals of the knowledge and skills to update and utilize the data bank. Limited outside assistance--financial and technical--is needed for some of the recommended measures.
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  23. 23

    Population Commission: report on the twenty-second session, 18-20 January 1984.

    United Nations. Economic and Social Council

    New York, New York, United Nations 1984. 45 p. (Official Records, 1984, Supplement No. 2 E/1984/12 E./CN. 9/1984/9)

    The report of the 22nd session of the United Nations Population Commission includes the opening statements by the Under Secretary General for International Economic and Social Affairs, the Under Secretary General for Technical Cooperation for Development, the Director of the Population Division, and the Assistant Executive Director of the United Nations Fund for Population Activities. These are followed by a description of the actions taken by the United Nations to implement the recommendations of the World Population Conference, 1974. A report on the progress of ongoing work in the field of population summarized for the following categories: 1) world demographic analysis; 2) demographic projections; 3) population policies; 4) population and development; 5) monitoring of population trends and policies; 6) factors affecting patterns of reproduction; 7) dissemination of population information; 8) technical cooperation; and 9) demograpahic statistics. Programs of work in the field of population for the biennium 1984-1985 and medium-term plan for the period 1984-1989 are provided for each of the 9 preceding categories as well as a consideration of draft proposals and a report on the continuity of work. The report concludes with the organization, attendance, and agenda of the session.
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  24. 24
    Peer Reviewed

    A perspective on long-term population growth.

    Demeny PG

    Population and Development Review. 1984 Mar; 10(1):103-26.

    This paper presents some of the results of projections prepared by the World Bank in 1983 for all the world's countries. The projections (presented against a background of recent demographic trends as estimated by the United Nations) trace the approach of each individual country to a stationary state. Implications of the underlying fertility and mortality assumptions are shown mainly in terms of time trends of total population to the year 2100, annual rates of growth, and absolute annual increments. These indices are shown for the largest individual countries, for world regions, and for country groupings according to economic criteria. The detailed predictive performance of such projections is likely to be poor but the projections indicate orders of magnitude characterizing certain aggregate demographic phenomena whose occurrence is highly probable and set clearly interpretable reference points useful in discussing contemporary issues of policy. (author's)
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  25. 25

    Population projections as an aid to the formulation and implementation of population policies.

    Keyfitz N

    In: United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population projections: methodology of the United Nations. New York, N.Y., United Nations, 1984. 17-20. (Population Studies, No. 83; ST/ESA/SER.A/83)

    Estimates of future population are calculated and interpreted in 3 different modes, each with its distinctive relation to the formulation of policy. Any account of the relation of forecasts to policy that overlooks these distinctions, risks confusion, if not self-contradiction. Briefly defined, the 3 modes are: 1) the concrete or unconditional forecast--that simply asserts what the future population will be; 2) the self-annulling forecast--primarily intended as a warning of what will happen unless something is done to prevent it; and 3) the difference or effect that a policy under consideration will have, that is, a sensitivity analysis. The unconditional forecast can be checked after the event by noting how close it came to the performance; this kind of checking has little meaning for either the self-annulling forecast or the sensitivity analysis. Impact is crucial in the 2nd mode: a projection cannot annul itself if no one pays attention to it. The United Nations projections as published are useful in the 1st and 2nd modes, but not directly for sensitivity analysis, which must be designed with the specific proposed policy in view.
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