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New York, New York, United Nations, 1992. viii, 134 p. (ST/ESA/SER.A/131)The most recent UN analysis of fertility levels and trends over the period 1965-89 in selected countries which have achieved fertility transition from high to low fertility is presented. The study is both descriptive and analytical. All low fertility countries analyzed, with the exceptions of Romania, Ireland, and the former USSR, had total fertility of 2.1 or less in 1988-89 and include the following: Japan, Hong Kong, Republic of Korea, Singapore, most European countries, Canada, the US, Australia, and New Zealand. Low fertility countries from other geographical regions were omitted due to the lack of countries with similar sociocultural contexts available for comparison purposes. Low-fertility countries with population under 300,000 were also not considered. Data coverage, quality, and availability; the measurement of fertility; and comparability problems both across countries and through time are discussed in the first chapter. Patterns of fertility decline are then presented with consideration given to period, cohort, overall, and adolescent fertility; population reproduction; age at child-bearing; number of births; birth order, and births by legitimacy status. A scenario of societal process is then hypothesized which may have favored or conditioned changes in reproductive values and modified the proximate determinants of fertility. Specifically, attention is given to demographic conditions, technological progress and economic development, the role and status of women, effects on couples and families, changing reproductive norms, marriage, divorce, contraception, abortion, diversity of conditions, and fertility policies. Analysis reveals a sharp fertility decline from 1965 to the mid-1980s followed by a stabilization of period fertility in some countries and upward fluctuations in several. This decline has affected in all groups, with greatest reductions at age 35 and over, and has been led by the greater practice of contraception and changing societal attitudes on marriage and reproduction. UN medium-variant projections foresee the population of more developed regions increasing by 12% over 1990-2025 versus 75% in less developed regions. Population aging should also be expected. Social and immigration policy are finally discussed in the context of these population trends.
Studies in Family Planning. 1978 May; 9(5):89-147.A macroanalysis of the correlates of fertility decline in developing countries for the period 1965-75. The analysis focuses on how much of the fertility decline is associated with socioeconomic variables such as health, education, economic status, and urbanization, or with "modernization" as a whole, and how much with population policies and programs designed to reduce rates of growth. The data are examined in a variety of ways: 1) simple correlations among the variables; 2) multiple regression analysis using both 1970 values of socioeconomic variables and, for the alternative lag theory, 1960 values; 3) change in the socioeconomic variables over time; 4) a special form of regression analysis called path analysis; 5) a relatively new type of analysis called exploratory data analysis; 6) relation of socioeconomic level and program efforts to both absolute and percentage declines in fertility; 7) crosstabulations of program effort with an index of socioeconomic variables. Such data and analyses show that the level of "modernization" as reflected by 7 socioeconomic factors has a substantial relationship to fertility decline, but also that family planning programs have a significant, independent effect over and above the effect of socioeconomic factors. The key finding probably is that 2 (social setting and program effort) go together most effectively. Countries that rank well on socioeconomic variables and also make substantial program effort have had on average much more fertility decline than have countries with one or the other, and far more than those with neither. Finally, the relationship between predicted and observed crude birth rate decline for the 94 developing countries over this period is illustrated for different combinations of actors, and an attempt is made to estimate the quantitative impact of the major conditions upon the intermediate variables traditionally assumed to account for crude birth rate change.(AUTHOR ABSTRACT)