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New York, New York, United Nations, 1992. viii, 134 p. (ST/ESA/SER.A/131)The most recent UN analysis of fertility levels and trends over the period 1965-89 in selected countries which have achieved fertility transition from high to low fertility is presented. The study is both descriptive and analytical. All low fertility countries analyzed, with the exceptions of Romania, Ireland, and the former USSR, had total fertility of 2.1 or less in 1988-89 and include the following: Japan, Hong Kong, Republic of Korea, Singapore, most European countries, Canada, the US, Australia, and New Zealand. Low fertility countries from other geographical regions were omitted due to the lack of countries with similar sociocultural contexts available for comparison purposes. Low-fertility countries with population under 300,000 were also not considered. Data coverage, quality, and availability; the measurement of fertility; and comparability problems both across countries and through time are discussed in the first chapter. Patterns of fertility decline are then presented with consideration given to period, cohort, overall, and adolescent fertility; population reproduction; age at child-bearing; number of births; birth order, and births by legitimacy status. A scenario of societal process is then hypothesized which may have favored or conditioned changes in reproductive values and modified the proximate determinants of fertility. Specifically, attention is given to demographic conditions, technological progress and economic development, the role and status of women, effects on couples and families, changing reproductive norms, marriage, divorce, contraception, abortion, diversity of conditions, and fertility policies. Analysis reveals a sharp fertility decline from 1965 to the mid-1980s followed by a stabilization of period fertility in some countries and upward fluctuations in several. This decline has affected in all groups, with greatest reductions at age 35 and over, and has been led by the greater practice of contraception and changing societal attitudes on marriage and reproduction. UN medium-variant projections foresee the population of more developed regions increasing by 12% over 1990-2025 versus 75% in less developed regions. Population aging should also be expected. Social and immigration policy are finally discussed in the context of these population trends.
People's Republic of China. Population education in the secondary schools and the teacher training of the People's Republic of China. Education project summary.
[Unpublished] . 3 p. (UNFPA Project No CPR-80-P14)This paper outlines the short and long term objectives of a population education project in China, entitled, "Population Education in the Secondary Schools and the Teacher Training of the People's Republic of China." The project is planned for 1980-82 under the administration of the United Nations Fund for Population Activities and Unesco. Costs are projected at $500,000 plus 1,349,500 Yuan. Short term objectives include: 1) revising the curriculum of middle schools with the aim of integrating population education, 2) revising existing materials in population education, 3) developing competencies in teaching population education among 8000 middle school teachers through 10 in-service training pedagogical institutes, 4) equipping 10 institutes and 10 middle schools with audiovisual facilities, books, and reference materials, 5) equipping the Compilation Department of the Educational Publishing House with books and audiovisual aids, and 6) assessing the performance of the project and the impact of population education on teachers and students. The long term objective is to contribute to the overall government government population policy objectives of reducing the rate of population growth from 12/1000 to 5/1000 by 1985, and to achieve zero population growth by year 2000.
[Unpublished] 1998 2 p.A new UN study offering long-range population projections all the way to the year 2150 is likely to fuel a debate on population growth. The study provides three standard projections: high, low, and medium population growth. Under its high projection, the study predicts that the global population will rise to 11.2 billion, 17.5 billion, and 27.0 billion by 2050, 2100, and 2150, respectively. Conversely, under the low projection, population will increase to 7.7 billion by 2050, decrease to 5.6 billion by 2100, and decline to 3.6 billion by 2150. The medium fertility projection assumes that population will eventually remain constant at just more than 2 children per woman by 2200, with an estimated global population of 11.0 billion. Taking into account this fertility drop and the subsequent increase in population aging, the projected reduction in the labor force, social security and pensions become more important issues than population growth. Issues relating to the impact of population aging on social and economic conditions will be of increasing concern in developing countries. However, with enormous regional disparities in global population growth estimates, population growth shall remain a major phenomenon in the developing world and should be taken into consideration by policy-makers and managers in economic and social sectors.
In: European Population Conference / Conference Europeenne sur la Population. Proceedings / Actes. Volume 2. 23-26 March 1993, Geneva, Switzerland / 23-26 mars 1993, Geneve, Suisse, [compiled by] United Nations. Economic Commission for Europe, Council of Europe, United Nations Population Fund [UNFPA]. Strasbourg, France, Council of Europe, 1994. 261-71.Economic changes in Poland have restricted social welfare development and services. Population has been below replacement level since 1989, and life expectancy has declined with a relatively high infant mortality. There is considerable emigration of the young and skilled, and 2.5 million were unemployed in 1992. There will be an increase in the population aged 45-64 years and among pensioners. Although there is no formal population policy, the government has aimed to reach replacement level fertility, to improve the quality of life, to balance the distribution of the population, and to formulate better international agreements on economic migration into and out of Poland. There is public concern about uncontrolled immigration from countries of the former Soviet Union, since Poland is a transit stop for refugees on their way to Germany or Scandinavia. Preferential treatment is been given to Polish migrants in the former Soviet Union. Illegal foreign labor has increased, and crime is a problem. There are plans for policy reform and for the establishment of an Immigration Office. Marriage is declining, and cohabitation is increasing. The birth rate declined from 19.7/1000 in 1983 to 14.3 in 1991. 8% of total births were to juveniles, 6% were born out of wedlock, and 8% were low birth weight. Contraception is available through pharmacies; sterilization is not performed, and abortion regulations are under debate. Unfavorable lifestyles and health behaviors contribute to a poor health situation and an increase in male mortality in all age groups. Circulatory system diseases are a primary cause of death, followed by cancers, injuries, and poisoning. Infant mortality was 15.0/1000 live births in 1991, mostly due to perinatal complications (50%) and developmental defects (27%). Hepatitis B infection is high in Poland, with 30 cases/1000; tuberculosis is declining, but was still high at 42.3/100,000 in 1990 and accounted for 40% of all infectious disease mortality. HIV infections numbered 1996 cases by 1991. Life expectancy is 66.1 years for males and 75.3 years for females. The Polish health strategy conforms to WHO directives and emphasizes general health promotion and at-risk populations. Poland is particularly concerned about population problems in the Eastern and Central European region and in countries of the former Soviet Republic.
[Unpublished] 1994. Presented at the International Conference on Population and Development [ICPD], Cairo, Egypt, September 5-13, 1994.  p.In his address to the 1994 UN International Conference on Population and Development, the Deputy Prime Minister of Croatia pointed out that this was the first time Croatia had taken part in the Conference as an independent, sovereign, and democratic country. The primary obstacle to development and improving the well-being of people worldwide and in Croatia is war (which is currently raging in approximately 70 regions of the world). Fundamental principles adopted by the international community are being violated with nothing done to enforce them. Croatia is committed to strengthening and consistently implementing the international mechanisms for world peace. War has resulted in approximately 20 million refugees and displaced persons, and Croatia, with less than a tenth of a percent of the world's population, is absorbing 3% of the refugees. It is not enough to supply international aid to alleviate the burden, the causes of the crisis have to be dealt with. The war in Bosnia-Herzegovina and the occupied area of Croatia has led to a decline in the population of Croatia. The depopulation of Croatia has been exacerbated by a below-replacement level fertility rate, a negative longterm migration balance, and by the numbers of people killed in the war. It will take the support of the international community to help countries which are undergoing radical changes in their political and economic systems to successfully embrace democracy and a market economy. The UN must play a prominent role in exercising the political will to preserve peace in the world as a prerequisite for development.
[WHO Special Programme of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction (HRP). A summary] WHO Special Programme of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction (HRP). Eine zusammenfassende Darstellung.
GEBURTSHILFE UND FRAUENHEILKUNDE. 1991 Jan; 51(1):9-14.The WHO's Special Program of Research, Development, and Research Training in Human Reproduction (HRP) has been involved in a global research and development program since 1972 in the are of human reproduction with special regard to the needs of developing countries. HRP set up a worldwide network of cooperating institutes and organized task forces for carrying out priority research objectives/assignments. The goals of HRP include reducing population growth in developing countries by improving health care and by increasing the availability of contraceptives. HRP training and research activities have encompassed workshops, seminars, and training courses. Research and development have been concerned with contraceptive prevalence and use; risks of contraceptives (carcinogenicity, cardiovascular effects, and subdermal implants' side effects); the development of new and safe methods (1-2 month depot preparations; and the levonorgestrel-releasing vaginal ring); and efficacy of contraceptive methods (lactation for birth spacing and natural family planning). A multicentric study in 25 countries has examined infertility caused by infections and sexually transmitted diseases. The extension of research capacity in developing countries was enabled by long-term institutional development grants, capital grants, labor cost financing, training of scientists, and improvement of management. The social and individual determinants of family planning aims at increasing contraceptive prevalence from 11% in Africa, 24% in Southeast Asia, and 43% in Latin America to the level of industrial countries 68%. The structure and management, goal setting and priorities, international cooperation, and finances of HRP are further detailed.
In: World population policies. Volume II. Gabon to Norway, [compiled by] United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division. New York, New York, United Nations, 1989. 54-7. (Population Studies No. 102/Add.1; ST/ESA/SER.A/102/Add.1)Hungary's 1985 population of 10,697,000 is projected to shrink to 10,598,000 by the year 2025. In 1985, 21.6% of the population was aged 0-14 years, while 18.2% were over the age of 60. 71.8% and 24.2% are projected to be in these respective age groups by the year 2025. The rate of natural increase will have declined from-0.3 to -0.6 over the period. Life expectancy should increase from 70.3 to 76.4 years, the crude death rate will decrease from 13.1 to 12.9, while infant mortality will decline from 20.1 to 7.0. The fertility rate will rise over the period from 1.9 to 2.0, with a corresponding drop in the crude birth rate from 12.9 to 12.3. The 1986 contraceptive prevalence rate was 73.0, while the 1980 female mean age at 1st marriage was 21.0 years. Urban population will increase from 56.2% in 1985 to 67.5% overall by the year 2025. Immigration, emigration, and spatial distribution are considered to be acceptable by the government, while population growth, morbidity, mortality, and fertility are not. Hungary has an explicit population policy. It hopes to increase population growth by increasing fertility and improving living conditions. Additionally, changes are sought in population age structure, mortality, and overall health status of the population. Population policy as it relates to development objectives is discussed, followed by consideration of specific policies adopted and measures taken to address above-mentioned problematic demographic indicators. The status of women and population data systems are also explored.
In: World population policies. Volume I. Afghanistan to France, [compiled by] United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division. New York, New York, United Nations, 1987. 174-7. (Population Studies No. 102; ST/ESA/SER.A/102)Denmark's 1985 population of 5,122,000 is projected to shrink to 4,690,000 by the year 2025. In 1985, 18.7% of the population was aged 0-14 years, while 20.1% were over the age of 60. 14.1% and 29.7% are projected to be in these respective age groups by the year 2025. The rate of natural increase will have declined from -0.6 to -5.3 over the period. Life expectancy should increase from 74.5 to 77.5 years, the crude death rate will increase from 11.3 to 14.4, while infant mortality will decline from 8.0 to 5.0. The fertility rate will rise of the period from 1.5 to 1.6, with a corresponding drop in the crude birth rate from 10.7 to 9.1. The 1975 contraceptive prevalence rate was 63.0, while the 1982 female mean age at 1st marriage was 26.1 years. Urban population will increase form 85.9% in 1985 to 91.8% overall by the year 2025. All of these trends and indicators are considered to be acceptable by the government. Denmark does not have an explicit population policy. The government aims to affect neither birth rate nor population growth. Health policy is in place to improve the quality of life, while other measures are being adopted to develop rural areas. Population policy as it relates to development objectives is discussed, followed by consideration of specific policies adopted and measures taken to address above-mentioned problematic demographic indicators. The status of women and population data systems are also explored.
Studies in Family Planning. 1984 Nov-Dec; 15(6/1):296-302.The international Conference on Population, held in Mexico City in August 1984, met to review past developments and to make recommendations for future implementation of the World Population Plan of Action. Despite the several ifferences of opinion, the degree of controversy was minor for an intergovernmental meeting of this size. The 147 government delegations at the Conference reached overall agreement on recommendations for future international commitment to expanding population efforts in the future. This review examines the recommendations of the Mexico Conference with regard to health, family planning, women in development, research, and realted issues. The total 88 recommendations wre intended to reaffirm and refine the World Population Plan of Action adopted in Bucharest in 1974, and to strengthen the Plan for the next decade. Substantial improvement in development was noted including fertility and mortality declines, improvements in school enrollement and literacy rates, as well as access to health services. Economic trends, however, were much less encouraging. While the global rate of population growth has declined slightly since 1974, world population has increased by 770 million during the decade, with 90% of that increase in the developing countries. Part of the controversy at the Conference focused on the remarkable change of position by the US delegation, which largely reversed the policies expressed at Bucharest. The US delegation stated that population was a neutral issue in development, that development is the primary requirement in achieving fertility decline. Several recommendations emphasized the need to integrate population and development planning, and called for increased national and international efforts toward the eradication of mass hunger, illiteracy, and unemployment; achievement of adaquate health and nutrition levels; and improvement in women's status. The need for futher development of management, training, information, education and communication was recognized. A clear call to strenghten global efforts in population policies and programs emerged.
Population and Development Review. 1984; 10(2):353-9.Thise comments and remarks were fomulated in 1974 during a panel discussion which was part of the program for the Population Tribune, a nongovernmental meeting, organized in parallel with the 1st UN World Population Conference at Bucharest. The panelists discussed the ways in which they expected the deliberations of a similarly conceived international conference, taking place 10 years after Bucharest, would differ from those of the 1974 meeting. The author prefaces his comments by clarifying his own position: population change is nnot the determinant of economic and social development. 5 major differences between the future policy debates and those at Bucharest are identified, explored and critically judged. The next Conference's deliberations will be characterised by a greatly increased understanding and appreciation of what its topic is supposed to be, of what the population problem really is and of what population policy is about. The author argues that the present conference did not deal with these issues in a satisfactory fashion. He maintains that there has been a failure to identify the structure of the population problem: an inconsistency between collective and individual interest. The principle to be adopted by governments is to analyze their own situation, identify their problems and act according to their best interest. The principles are the same whether a country is developed or developing. A 2nd major difference will be an increased understanding and appreciation that population policies should be guided by a search for improvement and optimization. A 3rd important difference will be increased demographic sophistication of the participants, to overcome the mechanistic and naive interpretation of the development-fertility link. A 4th difference is the expectation that, by 1984, the economic sophistication in discussing problems of development will have been greatly increased, which will facilitate constructive discussions of economic-demographic interrelations. A final change expected for 1984 would manifest itself in a calmer yet more helpful stance of the developed countries with respect to the developing world in demographic matters. Ultimately, the solutions must be local, rather than global.
In: United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population projections: methodology of the United Nations. New York, N.Y., United Nations, 1984. 25-32. (Population Studies, No. 83; ST/ESA/SER.A/83)The United Nations population projection assumptions are statements of expected trends in fertility, mortality and migration in the world. In every assessment, each of the 3 demographic components is unambiguously specified at the national level for each of the 5-year periods during the population interval (1950-2025). The approach used by the UN in preparing its projections is briefly summarized. At the general level, the analyst relies on available information of past events and current demographic levels and differentials, the demographic trends and experiences of similar countries in the region and his or her informed interpretations of what is likely to occur in the future. One common feature of the UN population projections that guides the analyst in preparing the assumptions is the general conceptual scheme of the demographic transition, or the socio-economic threshold hypothesis of fertility decline. As can be observed from the projected demographic trends reported in this paper, population stabilization at low levels of fertility, mortality and migration is the expected future for each country, with the only important differences being the timing of the stabilization. Irrespective of whether the country is developed, with very low fertility (for example, the Federal Republic of Germany or Japan), or developing with high fertility (such as, Bangladesh or the Syrian Arab Republic), it is assumed that fertility will arrive at replacement levels in the not too distant future. Serious alternative theories or hypotheses of population change, such as declining population size, are not only very few in number, but they tend to be somewhat more unacceptable and inconvenient to the demographic analyst as well as being considerably less palatable to goverments.
Intercom. 1981 Jun; 9(6):8-9.A modest decline in the growth rates of developing countries has occurred in recent years. The principal reason for this has been a decline in fertility. Recently, reported changes in mortality trends have been noted, particularly mortality declines in many parts of the 3rd world. As indicated in a United Nations table of projected and reported crude birth, crude death, and population growth rates in the less developed countries (1960-1965 and 1970-1975), the United Nations foresaw a decline from 42.0/1000 to 39.0/1000--a decline of 3.0 points--between the 1960-1965 and 1970-1975 crude birth rates. However, by 1978 the reported 1960-1965 birth rate was actually 40/100 rather than 42.0/1000 and the 1960-1965 to 1970-1975 decline was 4.5 rather than 3.0 points. The United Nations projected the crude death rate to be around 18.8/1000 for 1960-1965. The expectation was that it would decline by 4.5 points to 14.3/1000 for 1970-1975. Instead, by 1978 the death rate decline had been only 3.6 points, from 16.8/1000 as then observed for 1960-1965 to 13.2/1000 in 1970-1975. This was 0.9 points less of a decrease than projected in 1968. As a result of these 2 influences working together, the 3rd world's population growth rate fell by 0.9 points between 1960-1965 and 1970-1975 instead of rising by the 1.5 points earlier foreseen. 37.5% of the divergence between the projected and realized population growth rates was attributable to the fact that the crude death rate declined less rapidly than anticipated. It is of considerable interest that the figures from the most widely used set of population estimates point to mortality in addition to fertility as a significant cause of the unexpected slow rate of population growth between the early 1960s and the early 1970s. Had it not been for the shower than expected mortality decline, there would have been no reduction in developing country population growth between 1960-1965 and 1970-1975.
Studies in Family Planning. 1978 May; 9(5):89-147.A macroanalysis of the correlates of fertility decline in developing countries for the period 1965-75. The analysis focuses on how much of the fertility decline is associated with socioeconomic variables such as health, education, economic status, and urbanization, or with "modernization" as a whole, and how much with population policies and programs designed to reduce rates of growth. The data are examined in a variety of ways: 1) simple correlations among the variables; 2) multiple regression analysis using both 1970 values of socioeconomic variables and, for the alternative lag theory, 1960 values; 3) change in the socioeconomic variables over time; 4) a special form of regression analysis called path analysis; 5) a relatively new type of analysis called exploratory data analysis; 6) relation of socioeconomic level and program efforts to both absolute and percentage declines in fertility; 7) crosstabulations of program effort with an index of socioeconomic variables. Such data and analyses show that the level of "modernization" as reflected by 7 socioeconomic factors has a substantial relationship to fertility decline, but also that family planning programs have a significant, independent effect over and above the effect of socioeconomic factors. The key finding probably is that 2 (social setting and program effort) go together most effectively. Countries that rank well on socioeconomic variables and also make substantial program effort have had on average much more fertility decline than have countries with one or the other, and far more than those with neither. Finally, the relationship between predicted and observed crude birth rate decline for the 94 developing countries over this period is illustrated for different combinations of actors, and an attempt is made to estimate the quantitative impact of the major conditions upon the intermediate variables traditionally assumed to account for crude birth rate change.(AUTHOR ABSTRACT)
Seminar Paper, Bombay, India, International Institute for Population Studies, June 1978. 9 pIn the 1971 census in India, data on current fertility were collected for the 1st time. Various factors affecting fertility (fertility differentials) were revealed after studying the data: 1) Rural and urban residence data show higher fertility in rural areas, with total marital fertility rate estimated to be 4.56 and 4.09 in rural and urban populations, respectively. The difference was mainly due to lower fertility among the currently married women of urban areas in the age group of 18 years and above. 2) Educational attainment of women data indicate that fertility among the illiterate group was lower as compared to those women who have read up to the graduate level in rural areas, whereas urban fertility was lower in all categories except graduate level or above. 3) Age at marriage data indicate that in Karnataka the total marital fertility rates declined sharply as age at marriage increased in both urban and rural areas. 4) Religion data show that total marital fertility by religion and place of residence was lowest among Hindu women. Christians exhibited highest fertility in rural areas, and Muslims had the highest urban fertility. 5) Differentials in scheduled caste, tribe, and nonscheduled population show lower fertility rates among nonscheduled as compared to scheduled population. Among the scheduled castes and tribes, the latter show higher fertility.
Forum 1(2):23-24. October 1978.Early results of the World Fertility Survey indicate trends toward slower worldwide population growth and reduced fertility. Since 1960, birth rates have decreased about 15% in the majority of countries in the developing world. Although the population should increase by 1.8 billion by the year 2000, fertility is declining in small, highly populated areas as well as larger countries. Even though population growth appears to be slowing, certain cities such as Mexico City, Lagos, Cairo, and Tokyo-Yokohoma are projected to grow to extraordinary size. Population policies to deter growth in these areas should be a basic factor in formulating plans for national development. The continued and rapid increase in fertility which peaked in the seventies appears, based on statistics from 70 nations, to be levelling off and should result in a zero population growth rate around 2075.