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In: Key Issues in Population Policy: Problems, Options, and Recommendations for Action. E. Glassheim, C. Cargille and C. Hoffman, eds. Wash., D.C., University Press of America, 1978, pp. 39-47This speech was a response to Dr. Charles Cargille of the Population/Food Fund who argues that the World Population Plan which emerged from the Bucharest Conference, lacks specific objectives and, therefore, is not a plan and is deceiving the international community into thinking that a world population strategy does exist. The speaker agreed that the Plan is general, being the outcome of compromise in a sensitive political area. Furthermore, the diversity of population problems and of cultural values make policy-formulation on an international scale extremely difficult. The very fact that the Plan was developed is a departure from the past, when the United Nations concentrated assiduously on collecting demographic data rather than on taking a stand on population policy issues. The Plan has established that population problems do exist and that planning should take into account demographic trends. The Plan attributes population problems chiefly to underdevelopment and blurs population issues with general social and economic problems, but it recommends both development and family planning as solutions. Thus, the Plan reduces the emphasis on demography but it also goes far in emphasizing fertility control. While the Plan lacks quantitative targets except for mortality reduction, it makes several specific recommendations and contains provisions for its own self-renovation through continuous monitoring of population trends and a review every 5 years of progress made toward the goals of the Plan. In the ensuing discussion, Dr. Cargille and others replied.
Report on evaluation of the role of population factors in the planning process through the application of development models.
Bangkok, Thailand, UN, 1978. (Asian Population Studies Series No. 37; ST/ESCAP/64) 50 pThe basic objectives of the study are: 1) to encourage and motivate country planners to improve their development plans by integrating population factors into development planning and policies; 2) to provide planners with appropriate procedures to consider the short-term and long-term implications of population growth for fixing priorities and setting targets in various development sectors; 3) to provide guidelines for considering the implications of various socioeconomic programs and policies for fertility, mortality, and migration; and 4) to serve as a guideline for training and educational purposes. The major models which have been developed by research teams to portray the interaction between demographic, economic, and social variables are analyzed and evaluated with regard to their potential usefulness in development planning. The study deals with the following prototypes and their country-specific applications: 1) TEMPO 1 and TEMPO 2; 2) the Long Range Planning Model series of models; 3) the FAC/UNFPA MODEL; 4) the model developed by the Population Dynamics Group of the University of Illinois; and 5) the BACHUE model. Concerning choice of model structure and application to planning, 3 methodological questions are considered: the choice of a central core for the model; the trade-off between simplicity and complexity; and the choice of a supply or demand orientation. It is concluded that the construction of a model is as important as its application to the policy making and planning processes of countries. In general this would be facilitated if the model were designed and developed in the country in which it was to be used. Such models would be more closely attuned to country-specific problems and the creation of the model would create a cadre of people within the country capable of operating and adapting the model.