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Potential impact of multiple interventions on HIV incidence in a hyperendemic region in Western Kenya: a modelling study.
BMC Infectious Diseases. 2016 Apr 29; 16:189.BACKGROUND: Multiple prevention interventions, including early antiretroviral therapy initiation, may reduce HIV incidence in hyperendemic settings. Our aim was to predict the short-term impact of various single and combined interventions on HIV spreading in the adult population of Ndhiwa subcounty (Nyanza Province, Kenya). METHODS: A mathematical model was used with data on adults (15-59 years) from the Ndhiwa HIV Impact in Population Survey to compare the impacts on HIV prevalence, HIV incidence rate, and population viral load suppression of various interventions. These interventions included: improving the cascade of care (use of three guidelines), increasing voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC), and implementing pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) use among HIV-uninfected women. RESULTS: After four years, improving separately the cascade of care under the WHO 2013 guidelines and under the treat-all strategy would reduce the overall HIV incidence rate by 46 and 58 %, respectively, vs. the baseline rate, and by 35 and 49 %, respectively, vs. the implementation of the current Kenyan guidelines. With conservative and optimistic scenarios, VMMC and PrEP would reduce the HIV incidence rate by 15-25 % and 22-28 % vs. the baseline, respectively. Combining the WHO 2013 guidelines with VMMC would reduce the HIV incidence rate by 35-56 % and combining the treat-all strategy with VMMC would reduce it by 49-65 %. Combining the WHO 2013 guidelines, VMMC, and PrEP would reduce the HIV incidence rate by 46-67 %. CONCLUSIONS: The impacts of the WHO 2013 guidelines and the treat-all strategy were relatively close; their implementation is desirable to reduce HIV spread. Combining several strategies is promising in adult populations of hyperendemic areas but requires regular, reliable, and costly monitoring.
Progress and challenges in modelling country-level HIV/AIDS epidemics: the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package 2007.
Sexually Transmitted Infections. 2008; 84(Suppl 1):i5-i10.The UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) was developed to aid in country-level estimation and shortterm projection of HIV/AIDS epidemics. This paper describes advances reflected in the most recent update of this tool (EPP 2007), and identifies key issues that remain to be addressed in future versions. The major change to EPP 2007 is the addition of uncertainty estimation for generalised epidemics using the technique of Bayesian melding, but many additional changes have been made to improve the user interface and efficiency of the package. This paper describes the interface for uncertainty analysis, changes to the user interface for calibration procedures and other user interface changes to improve EPP's utility in different settings. While formal uncertainty assessment remains an unresolved challenge in low-level and concentrated epidemics, the Bayesian melding approach has been applied to provide analysts in these settings with a visual depiction of the range of models that may be consistent with their data. In fitting the model to countries with longer-running epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa, a number of limitations have been identified in the current model with respect to accommodating behaviour change and accurately replicating certain observed epidemic patterns. This paper discusses these issues along with their implications for future changes to EPP and to the underlying UNAIDS Reference Group model.
[Unpublished] 2007. Presented at the 2007 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, New York, New York, March 29-31, 2007. 18 p.The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) has developed the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) for making national estimates and short term projections of HIV prevalence based on observed prevalence trends in antenatal clinics. Understanding uncertainty in its projections and related quantities is important for more informed policy decision making. We propose using Bayesian melding to assess the uncertainty around the EPP predictions. Prevalence data as well as information on the input parameters of the EPP model are used to derive probabilistic HIV prevalence projections - a probability distribution on a set of future prevalence trajectories. We relate antenatal clinic prevalence to population prevalence and account for variability between clinics using a random effects model. Predictive intervals for clinic prevalence are derived for checking the model. We discuss predictions given by the EPP model and the results of the Bayesian melding procedure for Uganda where prevalence peaked at around 28% in 1990; the 95% prediction interval for 2010 ranges from 1% to 7%. (author's)
Orphans and vulnerable children affected by HIV / AIDS in Brazil: where do we stand and where are we heading?
Revista de Saude Publica / Journal of Public Health. 2006 Apr; 40 Suppl:23-30.This study aimed at identifying human rights' status and situation, as expressed in the United Nations General Assembly Special Session on HIV/AIDS, of children and adolescents living with HIV/AIDS, non-orphans and orphans affected by AIDS, based on local and international literature review. The main study findings did not allow to accurately estimating those children and adolescents living with HIV and non-orphans affected by HIV/AIDS but data was available on those living with AIDS and orphans. The limitations and possibilities of these estimates obtained from surveillance systems, mathematical models and surveys are discussed. Though studies in literature are still quite scarce, there is indication of compromise of several rights such as health, education, housing, nutrition, nondiscrimination, and physical and mental integrity. Brazil still needs to advance to meet further needs of those orphaned and vulnerable children. Its response so far has been limited to providing health care to those children and adolescents living with HIV/AIDS, preventing mother-to-child HIV transmission and financing the implementation and maintenance of support homes (shelters according to Child and Adolescent Bill of Rights) for those infected and affected by HIV/AIDS, either orphans or not. These actions are not enough to ensure a supportive environment for children and adolescents orphaned, infected or affected by HIV/AIDS. It is proposed ways for Brazil to develop and improve databases to respond to these challenges. (author's)
Potential impact of antiretroviral therapy on HIV-1 transmission and AIDS mortality in resource-limited settings.
Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes. 2006 Apr 15; 41(5):632-641.The objective was to estimate the potential impact of antiretroviral therapy on the heterosexual spread of HIV-1 infection and AIDS mortality in resource-limited settings. A mathematic model of HIV-1 disease progression and transmission was used to assess epidemiologic outcomes under different scenarios of antiretroviral therapy, including implementation of World Health Organization guidelines. Implementing antiretroviral therapy at 5% HIV-1 prevalence and administering it to 100% of AIDS cases are predicted to decrease new HIV-1 infections and cumulative deaths from AIDS after 10 years by 11.2% (inter-quartile range [IQR]: 1.8%-21.4%) and 33.4% (IQR: 26%-42.8%), respectively. Later implementation of therapy at endemic equilibrium (40% prevalence) is predicted to be less effective, decreasing new HIV-1 infections and cumulative deaths from AIDS by 10.5% (IQR: 2.6%-19.3%) and 27.6% (IQR: 20.8%-36.8%), respectively. Therapy is predicted to benefit the infected individual and the uninfected community by decreasing transmission and AIDS deaths. The community benefit is greater than the individual benefit after 25 years of treatment and increases with the proportion of AIDS cases treated. Antiretroviral therapy is predicted to have individual and public health benefits that increase with time and the proportion of infected persons treated. The impact of therapy is greater when introduced earlier in an epidemic, but the benefit can be lost by residual infectivity or disease progression on treatment and by sexual disinhibition of the general population. (author's)