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  1. 1

    World population prospects as assessed in 1973.

    United Nations

    New York, UN, 1977. 183 p. (Population Studies No. 60)

    The projections in this report cover the years 1970-2000. Quinquennial projections were prepared by sex and 5-year groups for each of 155 countries, 8 major areas, and 24 regions. Projections by sex and single years of age for population between ages 5-24 are provided for every region and country. Other demographic indicators were calculated for each region including population totals for males and females, sex ratio, percentage distribution by age category, dependency ratio, median age, crude birth and death rates, general and total fertility rate, life expectancy, and gross and net reproduction rate. In 1975 the world population was estimated at 4 billion; the medium variant projection for the year 2000 is 6.25 billion. The rate of growth is estimated at 1.9% for 1970. A downward trend is expected for 1985 when growth will slow to 1.6%. There will continue to be wide disparities in the rates of growth of developed and less developed nations. In the less developed regions the annual rate of growth is expected to maintain its current 2.3-2.4% for about 15 years, 1970-85, reaching 1.9%, after a downward trend, by 2000. The more developed regions should decline from .9% to .6%. The highest average annual rate of growth is in Latin America, 2.7%, (1970-5). In 1975 Africa had the highest annual rate of growth, expected to exceed 2.9% from 1985-2000. Only Eastern Africa and Middle America are expected to exceed 3% up to 1990-95.
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  2. 2

    Agrarian structures, class formation and development strategies in the Sahel.

    Derman W

    [Unpublished] 1977. 32 p.

    The Sahel refers geographically to a region south of the Sahara in East Africa, encompassing parts of 6 countries. This region recently suffered a devastating drought and famine. A class analysis of the origins of both the drought and the famine is presented. Many myths regarding the Sahel emphasize overpopulation, environmnetal deterioration, and poverty. These are myths, however. The environment does not determine the cultures of the region and poverty was not always a condition of the region. French colonialism in the area dislocated traditional agriculture, caused a transfer of the land to private ownership, and encouraged migration to France, all of which created classes in a previously classless society and undermined the subsistence base of the peasantry by emphasizing cash crops. The drought merely exacerbated a pre-existing situation and led to famine. A well-funded international development effort was the response to the drought/famine conditions in the Sahel. However, national and international forces combined in the development programs (exemplified by the Bakel region) to prevent local initiative and to prescribe what crops were to be produced and how. Production and productivity will only increase if peasant and herder participation are encouraged.
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  3. 3

    Population and development policy.


    [Unpublished] 1977 Jun. 169 p.

    Population and development policy decisions must be based on accurate demographic data in order to correctly formulate priorities in budgets and expenditures. Family planning as a public policy cannot be imposed upon private citizens; it must be freely chosen. The question remains: what determines fertility in the private sector and what can government do to align policy with performance? Research and analysis is needed to develop policy in keeping with local customs, standards, and individual sensibilities. Should more money be spent on education, health care, or development? Research from poor countries is spotty and disorganized. More money is spent on reduction of infant mortality than on family planning. Fertility control is still a controversial subject. Funds supplied for population and health are barely matched by many developing countries whose priorities lean toward agriculture and nutrition. In Haiti the 5-year development plan ignores the interactions between population growth and economic development. If the current level of fertility continues, it will act as a deterrent to development. A population impact analysis of El Salvador examines the effect AID policies and programs have on fertility control. Implementation of a policy in its first stages is described for Guatemala. Family models and global models show touchpoints where public policy might interface with private practice. Rural development implies increased production, equal opportunities, and a low fertility rate. All 3 are interrelated and affected by demographic events. Rising incomes, below a threshold level, has increased the fertility rate among the very poor.
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  4. 4

    A sense of urgency.


    Populi. 1977; 4(1):44-50.

    A link between population factors and development planning has been established since the World Population Conference at Bucharest in 1974. 48 out of 114 developing countries desire a lower growth rate, and most are taking active measures toward that end. The main responsibility for national population policies and programs lies with national authorities, but international cooperation should play an important role. 18 of the 48 countries that desire a lower growth rate are in Asia. Quantitative and qualitative changes may be brought about in people's lives by an approach that includes nutrition, health, housing, education, and employment. 40 developing countries have fertility limitation policies, 71 directly support programs to give an access to birth control, 16 support such programs indirectly, and 28 have a nonintervention attitude. Only 15 countries limit access to contraceptive measures. There is evidence that population growth rates have begun to decline. All governments aim at lowering the death rate, and those of the developing countries are trying to reduce infant mortality and raise health levels. 75 of the 114 developing countries have policies to slow down migration from rural to urban areas.
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