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Habitat Debate. 2001 Jun; 7(2): p..It is projected that the world population will rise from 5.7 billion in 1995 to 8.9 billion in 2050, growing at the rate of 1.3 per cent per annum in the period 1995- 2000 to 0.3 per cent per annum in the period 2045-2050. The assumption is that there will be a massive fertility decline in the majority of countries, a scenario expected to produce ageing populations, i.e. populations in which the proportion of children is declining and that of older persons is increasing. Voluntary and Forced Migration The world is polarized between the net-immigration in more developed countries and the net-emigration in the developing world. The developed world receives immigrants mainly from Asia and Latin America, and to a certain extent, Africa. Immigration patterns suggest that countries in Europe and North America are becoming less homogenous in terms of race and culture. (excerpt)
POPULATION BULLETIN OF THE UNITED NATIONS. 1993; (34-35):120-53.As part of the preparation for the up-coming International Conference on Population and Development, an expert group meeting on population distribution and migration was held in Santa Cruz, Bolivia, in January 1993. Participants considered the scope of migration which included a net internal migration of between 75 million and 1 billion people during 1975-85 and international migration which census data put at 77 million in the 1970s and early 1980s. World economic trends during the 1980s were reviewed, as were changes in the nature and configuration of various countries. The following topics were explored: patterns of population distribution and development, policies affecting internal migration and population distribution, internal migration and its implications for development, economic aspects of international migration, international migration in a changing world, international migration between developing countries, and refugees and asylum-seekers. 37 recommendations were prepared for governments, social institutions, and the international community. The first 10 urge that population distribution be an integral part of development policies, that government policies and expenditures be evaluated for their contribution to social and economic goals, that the capacity and competence of municipal authorities to manage urban development be increased, that government funding be decentralized, that economic and institutional links be developed between urban centers and surrounding rural areas, that alternatives to out-migration from rural areas be created, that the income-earning capacities of migrants be improved, that group mobilization by and for people affected by migration be encouraged, that adequate access to health services and family planning be assured, and that the underlying causes of environmental degradation, natural disasters, and war be addressed with mechanisms developed to protect victims. 13 recommendations deal with international migration and call for appropriate policies, cooperation, protection of human rights, an end to discrimination toward women, the normalization of family life among documented migrants, the promotion of good community relations between migrants and the rest of society, the guarantee of equal economic and social rights to longterm foreign residents and facilitation of their naturalization, the provision of legal information to potential migrants, the provision of equal educational and training opportunities to the children of migrants, and the institution of sanctions against the organizers of illegal migration. The next 7 recommendations urge that the causes of forced migration be addressed, that refugees receive assistance and protection, that the responsibility for refugees be shared equitably, that the right to asylum be protected, that appropriate repatriation programs be supported, that long-standing refugee populations be helped to achieve self-sufficiency, and that the specific needs of refugee women be addressed. The final 7 recommendations cover data and research needs regarding population distribution and migration and urge support for research on population distribution, the collection of national statistics, a review of existing standard definitions and classifications of rural and urban populations and of international migration, cooperation in the registration and monitoring of refugee populations, and the promotion of an exchange of information on trends and policies of international migration.
In: Population perspectives. Statements by world leaders. Second edition, [compiled by] United Nations Fund for Population Activities [UNFPA]. New York, New York, UNFPA, 1985. 152.Despite Syria's high rate of population increase, the implementation of certain socioeconomic policies will lead to a reduction of the rate of growth. During 1960-70, the growth rate stood at 32.8/1000, increasing to 33.5/1000 during 1970-81, a product of the country's young age structure and stable -- but high -- fertility rate. The country has also experienced a drop in the mortality rate, from 15/1000 during the 1960s to 8.2/1000 during the 1970s. Should these figures remain unchanged, Syria's population will double by the beginning of the next century. Nonetheless, the high population growth rate and rural-urban migration has stimulated socioeconomic improvements within an already existing development framework designed to meet the needs of population increase, to improve income levels and income distribution. These improvements can be seen in Syria's per capita GNP growth, which more than doubled between 1970-1982. The government has also adopted measures to improve health, education, cultural, and housing conditions, and has sought to create a more balanced economy. These socioeconomic policies and others -- including women's education -- will ultimately reduce population growth.
UNESCO/IPDC Regional Seminar on the Media and the African Family, Livingstone, Zambia, 6-10 January 1986. Report.
[Unpublished] 1986 Jan. v, 63 p.A seminar was planned and conducted by UNESCO's Population Division during January 1986 to promote increased media attention to issues which affect family stability and welfare. Especially important are the social, economic, and health problems created by high rates of population growth, urbanization, and migration. The seminar intended to give participants an opportunity to: examine the changing characteristics and emergin problems of the African family; review and appraise both past and current efforts on the part of the media to promote understanding of the interrelationships between socioeconomic conditions and family welfare, composition, stability, and size; and develop plans to increase the involvement and effectiveness of the media in promoting understanding of these interrelationships and in enabling families to make decisions and take action to enhance their welfare and stability. This report of the seminar is presented in 2 sections. The 1st section presents the participants' review of the changing nature of the African family over recent decades and the socioeconomic and sociocultural problems which have emerged as a consequence of these changes. Additionally, the 1st section reviews the extent to which communication systems in the region have tried to deal with the population related issues which affect family welfare. A "Communication Plan of Action" is proposed by the participants as a logical outcome of their 2 analyses and as a synthesis of their recommendations for the manner in which communication systems in the region must develop in order to meet ongoing and future population-family life changes. The Plan of Action identifies the following strategies as necessary to realize the increased involvement of the media in family issues and problems: institutionalizing population family life content within the curricula of media training institutions within the region; intensifying preservice and inservice training of media personnel to enable them to deal effectively with the demographic, social, and economic issues which impinge upon family welfare; highlighting population family life communication matters; ensuring that research on population family life issues be widely disseminated to media personnel and media based organizations; sensitizing political and administrative decisionmakers to population family life issues so that media communication can be supported and opportunities for media coverage can be extended; emphasizing in national development plans the importance of the media in generating public awareness of and response to the constraints placed upon national development and improved family welfare by rapid population growth and large-scale urban migration; and encouraging the involvement of community organizations in media programs. The 2nd section of the report includes the participants examination of the communication planning process.
In: Population structures and models: developments in spatial demography, edited by Robert Woods and Philip Rees. Boston, Massachusetts/London, England, George Allen and Unwin, 1986. 367-89.The fundamental question addressed in this chapter is the reasonableness of available projections of urbanization, such as those recently published by the United Nations....Drawing on simple models of urban and rural population dynamics, we propose two alternative methods for assessing projected urbanization paths in terms of their underlying assumptions. One focuses on the implied rural-urban migration flows, whereas the other emphasizes the association between urbanization and economic development. The case of the Asian Pacific region is given as an example. (EXCERPT)
POPULATION BULLETIN OF THE UNITED NATIONS. 1987; (19-20):70-81.This is a survey of the U.N. Population Division's contributions to the study of urbanization and internal migration, related research, and publications. In order to review these contributions, the relevant U.N. publications are classified under five broad topics: "estimates and projections of urban, rural and city populations, including problems of data comparability and methods to measure internal migration; monitoring of trends in urbanization; estimates and analyses of migration as a component of urban and metropolitan growth; studies of demographic and socio-economic aspects of urbanization, and studies of demographic and socio-economic aspects of internal migration." (EXCERPT)
POPULI. 1986; 13(1):5-14.Within the next 50 years, the predominantly rural character of developing countries will shift as a result of rapid world urbanization. In 1970 the total urban population of the more developed world regions was almost 30 million more than in the less developed regions; however, by the year 2000 the urban population of developing countries will be close to double that in developed countries. A growing proportion of the urban population will be concentrated in the biggest cities. At the same time, the rural population in developing countries is expected to increase as well, making it difficult to reduce the flow of migrants to urban centers. Although urban fertility in developing countries tends to be lower than rural fertility, it is still at least twice as high as in developed countries. The benefits of urbanization tend to be distributed unevenly on the basis of social class, resulting in a pattern of skewed income and standard of living. Social conditions in squatter settlments and urban slums are a threat to physical and mental health, and the educational system has not been able to keep up with the growth of the school-aged population in urban areas. The problems posed by urbanization should be viewed as challenges to social structures and scientific technologies to adapt with concern for human values. It is suggested than 4 premises about the urbanization process should guide urban planners: 1) urban life is essential to the social nature of the modern world; 2) urban and rural populations should not be conceptualized in terms of diametrically opposed interest groups; 3) national policies will have an impact on urban areas, just as developments in the cities will impact on national development; and 4) the great cities of the world interact with each other, exchanging both trade and populations. The United Nations Family Planning Association stresses the need for 3 fundamental objectives: economic efficiency, social equity, and population balance.
Interurban Man: the dynamics of population in urban and rural life, statement made at the United Nations Conference on Human Settlements, Vancouver, Canada, 2 June 1976.
New York, N.Y., UNFPA, . 6 p.Human history up to this point has been one of movement. Gradually, the nature of this movement has changed. Population flow across countries has concentrated on the great cities. As man has become more mobile, his settlements have become more concentrated. By the end of this century, man will be predominantly urban. He might be called "Interurban Man." There is still a tendency to think of the city dweller as an aberration. People will not return to the land in any significant numbers unless taken by force; and the tendency to congregate will probably continue. A new perception of cities and towns requires a complementary change in our view of rural areas. Rural people are not "hopelessly backward peasants," nor are they all that is valuable in our life. The land on which they live and work is the essence of human survival. The shift in perception that is taking place now implies 1st that in the future urban life will be the norm, and 2nd that the "life-force" of a country or a region is less likely to be a single great city than a series of urban centers. The shift is marked by a change in approach to the problems of urbanization and industrialization. There is an increasing emphasis on rural development. Population programs have proved most effective when coupled with community involvement. How does international assistance fit in? UNFPA is already active in many aspects of human settlements and is extending its means of cooperation with local and international developmental agencies. So many aspects of development involve population considerations that it has become a major concern of the Fund to establish priorities for the use of our limited resources. A core program has been determined. The Fund supports collection and analysis of basic data on population growth and movement, and programs developed on the basis of this data.
Comparative study on migration, urbanization and development in the ESCAP region. Country reports. 3. Migration, urbanization and development in Indonesia.
New York, UN, 1981. 202 p. (ST/ESCAP/169)The UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific undertook a comparative study of migration, urbanization, and development in the region. Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, the Republic of Korea, Sri Lanka, and Thailand participated in the project and other countries are expected to be added in the 1980s. This monograph outlined the major features of internal migration in Indonesia as revealed by data collected prior to the census and national surveys carried out or planned for the 1980s. Chapter 1 aimed to set the scene for the migration analysis which follows by examining similarities and differences in the economic, social, and demographic variables in the urban and rural sectors of Indonesia. Chapter 2 looks at the patterns of change in population distribution in Indonesia over the past 50 years. There is an examination of the changing patterns of urban growth and urbanization over the last 1/2 century in chapter 3. Chapter 4 focuses on the role of migration in the urbanization process. The next chapter examines some of the major sociodemographic and economic characteristics of migrants. Chapters 4 and 5 rely heavily on data which came from the 1971 census. The last chapter reviews the major problems relating to migration and urbanization in Indonesia and the policies which have followed which attempt to deal with those problems. The 1971 census was the main source of data used; however, migration data from the census suffer from shortcomings in detecting the level and nature of population mobility in Indonesia. Other limitations exist as well and these are all outlined in detail.
In: International Union for the Scientific Study of Population. Economic and demographic change: issues for the 1980's. Proceedings of the Conference, Helsinki, 1978. Vol. 2. Liege, Belgium, IUSSP, 1979. 279-91.A set of rural-urban migration national indicators for developing countries has been developed by the U.N. Population Division for Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Asian countries have a rural out-migration rate that is higher, by 2-3/1000, than the rate for Latin American countries. Latin American countries have higher crude rates of out-migration than Asian, but the differences are explicable by other variables. Net rural out-migration is faster the higher the initial economic levels. Rural-urban migration is accelerated by high rates of economic growth, of agricultural productivity growth, and rural natural increase. In combination, these variables account for about 60% of the variance in levels of rural-urban migration in a sample of 29 developing countries with a population of 1.3 billion. When these factors are controlled, initially large regional differences are reduced to insignificance. Urbanization is closely associated with economic structural factors. Although the high rates of urbanization may cause alarm, antimigration policies should be made with the understanding that migration is an integrated role of locational changes in the modernization process. Rising levels of personal income, demand for agricultural products, and greater efficiency of production will continue to contribute to rural-urban migration. (Summary in FRE)
Technical co-operation in population programmes in Africa since the 1974 World Population Conference.
[Unpublished] 1983 Sep. 16. 5 p. (E/ECA/POP/7 International Conference on Population, 1984; Papers)This paper reviews the technical assistance provided to African countries since the 1974 World Population Conference in Bucharest, Romania by the United Nations Department of Technical Cooperation for Development (DTCD) in the fields of demographic training, data evaluation and analysis, and incorporation of population factors in development planning. The paper focuses on the substantive aspects of the technical cooperation provided to African countries in these areas from 1974 to 1983. The cooperation was provided essentially in response to the expressed needs and requests of member states for developing their national capabilities to undertake data analysis and evaluation and to use the results to formulate appropriate population policies and implement them as part of national development programs. The ultimate goal is to improve national capacities in these fields so that countries may achieve self reliance in handling their population programs. Almost without exception, the United Nations Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA) has been the source of funding for DTCD executed population projects. In the area of demographic training, the training needs, especially from the priority countries in Africa, have yet to be fully met and in all countries there still remains the need for short term training in special demographic expertise and an exchange of interregional experiences. In the area of demographic evaluation and analysis, greater support is required for evaluation and analysis of relevant demographic phenomena, e.g. internal and international migration and the utilization of demographic software packages. Technical cooperation is needed in the areas of population and development so that emerging phenomena (e.g. population growth, especially in urban areas) can be dealt with by evolving suitable population policies and implanting these within overall national development plans. The world financial crisis has hindered the increasing trend in technical cooperation in demographic training, analysis and overall population policies and it is hoped that this situation will improve.