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In: The population debate: dimensions and perspectives. Papers of the World Population Conference, Bucharest, 1974. Volume I. New York, New York, United Nations, 1975. 124-54. (Population Studies, No. 57; ST/ESA/SER.A/57)The UN Secretary-General's state of the population and family message is an expansive discussion of many issues. There are some historical perspectives and definitions of family type, socioeconomic change, and demographic changes affecting the family. Population trends are given for family size, more and less developed regions, the family life cycle, and family structures. Policies in industrialized countries are examined with a focus on the nuclear family, new marriage patterns and the sociological implications, and political responses to population growth. Family policy is also viewed from within transitional societies: demographic characteristics; specific populations such as those in Latin America, India and Indonesia; economic and social change; nuclear and extended families; international migration and urban-rural differences; marriage age changes; educational impacts from population growth; health programs; and family planning. Some basic principles for population policies are outlined. Parents must have the right to determine freely and responsibly the number and spacing of their children. Children have a right to education, and parents to literacy. Women have an equal right to employment. Women have a right to choose their own marriage partners. Social policy in order to ensure the welfare of the family relies on social and economic services, including care for the aged. Market expansion and economic policy also impacts on the family through increasing participation of marginal workers especially women and should be sensitive to the well-being of the family. Population pressure will affect housing shortages and inefficiencies in social welfare, for example. Traditional societies are defined as those not affected yet by modernization. Regional illustrations are given for tropical Africa, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. The threshold hypothesis is advanced that even in traditional societies substantial mortality decline has occurred; the stages of demographic transition for specific countries has been shortened and inadequacy of data prevents a detailed estimation. Raising national and income/capita is seen as a goal of notional government. National governments have a responsibility to develop family and population policies. Human rights must be protected. The implications of growth patterns, the objectives of national policies, priorities, and universal criteria for a family policy are all discussed.
Fertility trends and prospects in East and South-East Asian countries and implications for policies and programmes.
POPULATION RESEARCH LEADS. 1991; (39):1-17.Fertility trends and prospects for east and southeast Asian countries including cities in China, Taiwan, the Republic of Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Myanmar, and Viet Nam are described. Additional discussion focuses on family planning methods, marriage patterns, fertility prospects, theories of fertility change, and policy implications for the labor supply, labor migrants, increased female participation in the labor force (LFP), human resource development, and social policy measures. Figures provide graphic descriptions of total fertility rates (TFRS) for 12 countries/areas for selected years between 1960-90, TFR for selected Chinese cities between 1955-90, the % of currently married women 15-44 years using contraception by main method for selected years and for 10 countries, actual and projected TFR and annual growth rates between 1990-2020 for Korea and Indonesia. It is noted that the 1st southeast Asian country to experience a revolution in reproductive behavior was Japan with below replacement level fertility by 1960. This was accomplished by massive postponement in age at marriage and rapid reduction in marital fertility. Fertility was controlled primarily through abortion. Thereafter every southeast Asian country experienced fertility declines. Hong Kong, Penang, Shanghai, Singapore, and Taipei and declining fertility before the major thrust of family planning (FP). Chinese fertility declines were reflected in the 1970s to the early 1980s and paralleled the longer, later, fewer campaign and policy which set ambitious targets which were strictly enforced at all levels of administration. Korea and Taiwan's declines were a result of individual decision making to restrict fertility which was encouraged by private and government programs to provide FP information and subsidized services. The context was social and economic change. Indonesia's almost replacement level fertility was achieved dramatically through the 1970s and 1980s by institutional change in ideas about families and schooling and material welfare, changes in the structure of governance, and changes in state ideology. Thailand's decline began in the 1960s and is attributed to social change, change in cultural setting, demand, and FP efforts. Modest declines characterize Malaysia and the Philippines, which have been surpassed by Myanmar and Viet Nam. The policy implications are that there are shortages in labor supply which can be remedied with labor migration, pronatalist policy, more capital intensive industries, and preparation for a changing economy.
UNESCO/IPDC Regional Seminar on the Media and the African Family, Livingstone, Zambia, 6-10 January 1986. Report.
[Unpublished] 1986 Jan. v, 63 p.A seminar was planned and conducted by UNESCO's Population Division during January 1986 to promote increased media attention to issues which affect family stability and welfare. Especially important are the social, economic, and health problems created by high rates of population growth, urbanization, and migration. The seminar intended to give participants an opportunity to: examine the changing characteristics and emergin problems of the African family; review and appraise both past and current efforts on the part of the media to promote understanding of the interrelationships between socioeconomic conditions and family welfare, composition, stability, and size; and develop plans to increase the involvement and effectiveness of the media in promoting understanding of these interrelationships and in enabling families to make decisions and take action to enhance their welfare and stability. This report of the seminar is presented in 2 sections. The 1st section presents the participants' review of the changing nature of the African family over recent decades and the socioeconomic and sociocultural problems which have emerged as a consequence of these changes. Additionally, the 1st section reviews the extent to which communication systems in the region have tried to deal with the population related issues which affect family welfare. A "Communication Plan of Action" is proposed by the participants as a logical outcome of their 2 analyses and as a synthesis of their recommendations for the manner in which communication systems in the region must develop in order to meet ongoing and future population-family life changes. The Plan of Action identifies the following strategies as necessary to realize the increased involvement of the media in family issues and problems: institutionalizing population family life content within the curricula of media training institutions within the region; intensifying preservice and inservice training of media personnel to enable them to deal effectively with the demographic, social, and economic issues which impinge upon family welfare; highlighting population family life communication matters; ensuring that research on population family life issues be widely disseminated to media personnel and media based organizations; sensitizing political and administrative decisionmakers to population family life issues so that media communication can be supported and opportunities for media coverage can be extended; emphasizing in national development plans the importance of the media in generating public awareness of and response to the constraints placed upon national development and improved family welfare by rapid population growth and large-scale urban migration; and encouraging the involvement of community organizations in media programs. The 2nd section of the report includes the participants examination of the communication planning process.
In: Third Asian and Pacific Population Conference (Colombo, September 1982). Selected papers. Bangkok, Thailand, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, 1984. 9-40. (Asian Population Studies Series No. 58)This report summarizes the recent demographic situation and considers prospective trends and their development implications among the 39 members and associate members of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP). It presents data on the following: size, growth, and distribution of the population; age and sex structure; fertility and marriage; mortality; international migration; growth and poverty; food and nutrition; households and housing; primary health care; education; the working-age population; family planning; the elderly; and population distribution. Despite improvements in the frequency and quality of demographic data collected in recent years, big gaps continue to exist in knowledge of the demographic situation in the ESCAP region. Available evidence suggests that the population growth rate of the ESCAP region declined between 1970 and 1980, as compared with the preceding decade, but that its rate of decline was slow. Within this overall picture, there is wide variation, with the most developed countries having annual growth rates around 1% and some of the least developed countries having a figure near 3%. The main factors associated with the high growth rates are the past high levels of fertility resulting in young age structures and continuing high fertility in some countries, notably in middle south Asia. The population of countries in the ESCAP region is expected to grow from 2.5 billion in 1980, to 2.9 billion in 1990, and to 3.4 billion persons by the year 2000. This massive growth in numbers, which will be most pronounced in Middle South Asia, will occur despite projected continuing moderation in annual population growth rates. Fertility is expected to continue its downward trend, assuming a more widespread and equitable distribution of health, education, and family planning services. Mortality is expected to decline further from its current levels, where life expectancy is often at or around 50 years. In several countries, more than 10 in every 100 babies born die before their 1st birthday. The extension of primary health care services is seen as the key to reducing this figure. Rapid population growth and poverty tend to reinforce each other. Low income, lack of education, and high infant and child mortality contribute to high fertility, which in turn is associated with high rates of natural increase. High rates of natural increase feed back to depress socioeconomic development. High population growth rates and their correlates of young age structures and heavy concentrations of persons in the nonproductive ages tend to depress production and burden government expenditure with high costs for social overhead needs. Rapid population growth emerges as an important factor in the persistence of chronic undernutrition and malnutrition. It increases the magnitude of the task of improving the educational system and exacerbates the problem of substandard housing that is widely prevalent throughout Asia.
New York, United Nations, 1984. 108 p. (Population Studies, No. 85; ST/ESA/SER.A/85)The 3 parts of this report on world, regional, and international developments in the field of population, present a summary of levels, trends, and prospects in mortality, fertility, nuptiality, international migration, population growth, age structure, and urbanization; consider some important issues in the interrelationships between economic, social, and demographic variables, with special emphasis on the problems of food supply and employment; and deal with the policies and perceptions of governments on population matters. The 1st part of the report is based primarily on data compiled by the UN Population Division. The 2nd part is based on information provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO) and the International Labor Organization (ILO), as well as that compiled by the Population Division. The final part is based on information in the policy data bank maintained by the Population Division, including responses to the UN Fourth Population Inquiry among Governments. In 1975-80 the expectation of life at birth for the world was estimated at 57.2 years for both sexes combined. The corresponding figure for the developed and developing regions was 71.9 and 54.7 years, respectively. In 1975-80 the birthrate of the world was estimated at 28.9/1000 population and the gross reproduction rate was 1.91. These figures reflect considerable decline from the levels attained 25 years earlier: a crude birthrate of 38/1000 population and a gross reproduction rate of 2.44. World population grew from 2504 million in 1950 to 4453 million in 1983. Of the additional 1949 million people, 1645 million, or 84%, accrued to the less developed countries. The impact of population growth on economic development and social progress is not well understood. The governments of some developing countries still officially welcome a rapid rate of population growth. Many other governments see cause for concern in the need for the large increases in social expenditure, particularly for health and education, that accompany a young and growing population. Planners are concerned that the rapidly growing supply of labor, compounded by a trend toward rapid urbanization, may exceed that which the job market is likely to absorb. In the developed regions the prospect of a declining, or an aging, population is also cause for apprehension. There is a dearth of knowledge as to the impact of policies for altering the consequences of these trends. Many policies have been tried, in both developed and developing countries, to influence population growth and distribution, but the consequences of such policies have been difficult to assess. Frequently this problem arises because their primary objectives are not demographic in character.
[Unpublished] 1983 Dec 9. 410 p. (IESA/P/WP.82)This report is the 4th in a series prepared pursuant to a recommendation of the World Population Plan of Action that the monitoring of population trends and policies should be undertaken continuously as a specialized activity of the UN and reviewed biennially. Part 1 of the report covers world and regional population growth, fertility, nuptiality, mortality, age structure, international migration, and urbanization. Also included is an overview of the most significant demographic events occurring since 1974. Although the world population is projected to increase from the 1980 level of 4.5 billion to 6.1 billion in 2000 and 8.2 billion in 2025, the growth rate is expected to continue to decline from 1.7% in 1980 to 1.4% in 2000 and 0.9% in 2025. The rate of growth is 2.1% in the developing regions compared with 0.6% in developed regions; however, this gap is expected to be narrowed in the future. The share of the world's population represented by developing countries is projected to increase from the current level of 75% to 79% in 2000 and 85% in 2025. Fertility declined 22% between 1970-75 and 1980-85 worldwide and 26% in the developing regions alone, due mainly to the drastic reduction of fertility in China (54%). 26 other countries with population exceeding 1 billion achieved fertility declines over 20%, but no significant decline has taken place in Africa or certain subregions of Latin America and Southern Asia. In the developed countries, fertility stabilized at very low levels in the 1970s and in some cases a slight recovery was noted in the 1980s. There is a considerable gap in life expectancy between developed countries (73 years) and developing countries (57 years), but by 2000, this statistic is expected to stand at 75.4 years and 63.5 years, respectively. As a consequence of the rapid decline in fertility, the age structure of the world population has been modified, with a decrease in those aged 15 years and under and an increase in those aged 65 years and over. There is an increasing trend of concentration of the population of developing countries in the large metropolitan areas, while a pattern of deconcentration out of the large metropolitan centers is emerging in developed countries.