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[Population and development in the Republic of Zaire: policies and programs] Population et developpement en Republique du Zaire: politiques et programmes.
[Unpublished] 1986. Presented at the All-Africa Parliamentary Conference on Population and Development, Harare, Zimbabwe, May 12-16, 1986. 9 p.The 1st census of Zaire, in July 1984, indicated that the population of 30 million was growing at a rate of at least 2.3%/year. The crude birth rate was estimated at 46/1000 and was believed to be higher in urban areas than in rural because of better health and educational conditions. The crude death rate was estimated at 16/1000 and the infant mortality rate at 106/1000. 46.5% of the population is under 15. The population is projected to reach 34.5 million in 1990, with urban areas growing more rapidly than rural. Zaire is at the stage of demographic transition where the gap between fertility and mortality is very wide. The consequences for national development include massive migration and rural exodus, unemployment and underemployment, illness, low educational levels, rapid urbanization, and increasing poverty. In the past decade, Zaire has undertaken a number of activities intended to improve living conditions, but as yet there is no explicit official policy integrating population and development objectives. In 1983, the Executive Council of Zaire organized a mission to identify basic needs of the population, with the assistance of the UN Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA). In 1985, the UNFPA developed a 5-year development plan. The UNFPA activities include demographic data collection, demographic policy and research, maternal-child health and family planning, population education, and women and development. In the area of data collection, the 1st census undertaken with UNFPA help has increased the availability of timely and reliable demographic data. The vital registration system is to be improved and a permanent population register to be developed to provide data on population movement. A National Population Committee is soon to be established to assist the Executive Council in defining a coherent population policy in harmony with the economic, social, and cultural conditions of Zaire. Demographic research will be conducted by the Demographic Department of the University of Kinshasa and the National Institute of Statistics. A primary health care policy has been defined to increase health coverage to 60% from the current level of 20%. Zaire has favored family planning services integrated with the primary health care system since 1979. At present 2 components of the Desirable Births" program are underway, the Desirable Births Service Project undertaken in 1983 and the Rural Health Project undertaken in 1982, both executed by the Department of Public Health with financing provided by US Agency for International Development. The RAPID (Resources for the Analysis of the Impact of Population on Development) program has been used since 1985 to inform politicians, technicians, and planners. Efforts have been underway since 1965 to include women in the development process, and a new family code is being studied which would give better protection to some rights of women and children.
In: The 1984 International Conference on Population: the Liberian experience, [compiled by] Liberia. Ministry of Planning and Economic Affairs. Monrovia, Liberia, Ministry of Planning and Economic Affairs, . 9-17.The purpose of the National Seminar on Population is to disseminate in Liberia the results of the World Population Conference held in Mexico City in August 1984. Due to the complex interrelationships between population and development, one must conclude that rapid population growth has an adverse effect on development. Liberia has a high level of fertility (48-51 lives births per 1000 population) and a high mortality (18 per 1000 population). One result of these population trends is that the population is youthful, about 50% of the people being under 18. This high growth potential means that in future the resources necessary to support the population will be scarcer. Secondly, increasing rural to urban migration means that the cities will have more people than they have jobs, housing, education, or health facilities to support them and that the rural areas will be depopulated with attendant lowered agricultural production and rural poverty. Education is at least partly responsible for the rural-urban migration because it alerts young people to the increasing opportunities in the towns. The current trend of increasing fertility and declining mortality means decreased economic growth and a lower standard of living. To reduce this trend people must be made aware of the necessity to lower the birth rate as well as of the means to do it. People regard a large family as a status symbol and children as a source of labor and support in old age. These attitudes will not change until people trust that the Government is committed to the socioeconomic changes that will make practicable the shift from large households with low productivity to small families with high productivity. As part of this effort, the National Committee on Population is being expanded into a National Population Commission, responsible for coordinating population programs and drafting a national population policy.
[Unpublished] 1984 May 8. 31 p. (CE 92/12)This report shows how demographic information can be analyzed and used to identify and characterize the groups assigned priority in the Regional Plan of Action and that it is necessary for the improvement of the planning and allocation of health resources so that national health plans can be adapted to encompass the entire population. In discussing the connections between health and population characteristics in the countries of the region, the report covers mortality, fertility and health, and fertility and population increase; spatial distribution and migration; and the structure of the population. Focus then moves on to health, development, and population policies and family planning. The final section of the report considers the response of the health sector to population trends and characteristics and to development-related factors. The operations of the health sector must be revised in keeping with the observed demographic situation and the projections thereof so that the goal of health for all by the year 2000 may be realized. In several countries of the region mortality remains high. In 1/3 of them, infant mortality during the period 1980-85 exceeds 60/1000 live births. If measures are not taken to reduce mortality 55% of the population of Latin America in the year 2000 will still be living in countries with life expectancies at birth of under 70 years. According to the projections, in the year 2000 the birthrate will stand at around 29/1000, with wide differences between the countries of the region, within each of them, and between socioeconomic strata. High fertility will remain a factor hostile to the health of women and children and a determinant of rapid population growth. Some governments view the present or predicted growth rates as excessive; others want to increase them; and some take no explicit position on the matter. The countries would be well advised to assign values to their birthrate, natural increase, and periods for doubling their populations in relation to their development plans and to the prospects for improving the standard of living and health of their populations. An important factor in urban growth is internal migration. These migrants, like some of those who move to other countries, may have health problems requiring special care. Regardless of a country's demographic situation, the health sector has certain responsibilities, including: the need to promote the framing and adoption of population and development policies, in whose implementation the importance of health measures is not open to question; and the need to favor the intersector coordination and articulation required to ensure that population aspects are considered in national development planning.
In: Third Asian and Pacific Population Conference (Colombo, September 1982). Selected papers. Bangkok, Thailand, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, 1984. 9-40. (Asian Population Studies Series No. 58)This report summarizes the recent demographic situation and considers prospective trends and their development implications among the 39 members and associate members of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP). It presents data on the following: size, growth, and distribution of the population; age and sex structure; fertility and marriage; mortality; international migration; growth and poverty; food and nutrition; households and housing; primary health care; education; the working-age population; family planning; the elderly; and population distribution. Despite improvements in the frequency and quality of demographic data collected in recent years, big gaps continue to exist in knowledge of the demographic situation in the ESCAP region. Available evidence suggests that the population growth rate of the ESCAP region declined between 1970 and 1980, as compared with the preceding decade, but that its rate of decline was slow. Within this overall picture, there is wide variation, with the most developed countries having annual growth rates around 1% and some of the least developed countries having a figure near 3%. The main factors associated with the high growth rates are the past high levels of fertility resulting in young age structures and continuing high fertility in some countries, notably in middle south Asia. The population of countries in the ESCAP region is expected to grow from 2.5 billion in 1980, to 2.9 billion in 1990, and to 3.4 billion persons by the year 2000. This massive growth in numbers, which will be most pronounced in Middle South Asia, will occur despite projected continuing moderation in annual population growth rates. Fertility is expected to continue its downward trend, assuming a more widespread and equitable distribution of health, education, and family planning services. Mortality is expected to decline further from its current levels, where life expectancy is often at or around 50 years. In several countries, more than 10 in every 100 babies born die before their 1st birthday. The extension of primary health care services is seen as the key to reducing this figure. Rapid population growth and poverty tend to reinforce each other. Low income, lack of education, and high infant and child mortality contribute to high fertility, which in turn is associated with high rates of natural increase. High rates of natural increase feed back to depress socioeconomic development. High population growth rates and their correlates of young age structures and heavy concentrations of persons in the nonproductive ages tend to depress production and burden government expenditure with high costs for social overhead needs. Rapid population growth emerges as an important factor in the persistence of chronic undernutrition and malnutrition. It increases the magnitude of the task of improving the educational system and exacerbates the problem of substandard housing that is widely prevalent throughout Asia.
[Statement by Rene Fernandez-Araoz, Vice-Minister of coordination of the Ministry of Planning, Bolivia] Discurso pronunciado por S.E. el Lic. Rene Fernandez-Araoz, Vice-Ministro de Planeamiento de la Republica de Bolivia, en la Conferencia Internacional de Poblacion..
[Unpublished] 1984. Presented at the International Conference on Population held in Mexico City, August 6-13, 1984. 7 p.Latin America faces a series of problems and hurdles which condition the way in which the issue of population/development is approached. The most obvious problems are the required changes in the socioeconomic and political structures; the state of the social sciences in the population field; the fragmentation of efforts among scientists, academicians, technicians and politicians dealing with this area; and the lack of legitimacy accorded to this topic. The chief hurdle facing most countries in the region and Bolivia in particular, is that of wide social differences. This disparity will worsen unless profound social changes are carried out. Bolivia has spent 3 yeras developing a consistent population policy within a development framework. This country offers a peculiar demographic situation: while the average fertility rate is 6.5 children/woman, this is offset by a high infant mortality rate (213/1000 children between the ages of 0 and 2), and a net population loss from out-migration. Bolivia is therefore underpopulated at the same time that the poorest women have a high fertility rate. The country's population policy thus seeks to act not only on the key demographic variables, but also on those social and economic variables which determine its poverty and underdevelopment. To this end, a National Population Council is being established with the assistance of the UN Fund for Population Activities and other entities. The speaker regrets the imposition of conditions on the funds granted by the UNFPA. These restrictions fall primarily on the poor and less-developed countries.
Population dynamics of rural Cameroon and its public health repercussions. A socio-demographic investigation of infertility in Mbandjock and Jakiri districts.
Yaounde, Cameroon, Public Health Unit, Univ. Centre for Health Sciences, Univ. of Yaounde, 1979 Oct. 314 p.The preliminary findings of the Vital Statistics Survey Project, conducted under the auspices of the University of Yaounde in 2 rural districts of Cameroon in 1975-78, are reported. Vital statistics surveys were conducted in 20 villages in the Jakiri district and 3 villages in the Mbandjock district in 1976. Longitudinal surveys were conducted in 1976-77 and again in 1977-78 in Jakiri and in 1976-77 in Mbandjock. Jakiri's population is characterized by high fertility and high mortality. In contrast, Mbandjock shows low fertility and a stagnant or decreasing population trend. Data on factors related to fertility were collected from 3592 women in Jakiri and 251 women in Mbandjock. The crude birth rate in Jakiri was 37.5 livebirths/1000 population in 1976-77 and 27.5/1000 in 1977-78. In Mbandjock, the 1976-77 rates were 20.1, 31, and 12/1000 in the 3 villages surveyed. The average number of living children per woman was 2.67 in Jakiri and 1.55 in Mbandjock. 68.9% of Jakiro women and 79% of Mbandjock women ages 15-50 were currently married; however, the latter district is characterized by widespread marital instability. The average number of pregnancies per women was 3.1 in Jakiri and 2.67 in Mbandjock, with average child wastage ratios of 0.43 and 1.12, respectively. The infant mortality rate in Jakiri was 147/1000 livebirths in 1976-77 and 137/1000 in 1977-78. The rate in Mbandjock declined from 417/1000 livebirths in 1976 to 0 in 1977, a decrease attributed both to an effective measles campaign and the small sample size. The average desired family size was 9 in Jakiri and 6 in Mbandjock. Jakiri demonstrated a total infertility rate of 17%. The corresponding rates in the 3 Mbandjock villages were 48, 46, and 52%. The proportion of infertile women ages 20-29 was 18% in Jakiri and 22, 16, and 24% in the Mbandjock villages. According to the World Health Organization, a 15% infertility rate in this age group is the limit for declaring a serious public health problem. However, since Careroon authorities seem satisfied with the fertility situation in Jakiri, it is suggested that the limit be raised to 18%. Mbandjock, on the other hand, is considered to have a serious infertility problem. 4 recommendations are made to improve the health profile for this part of rural Cameroon: 1) family planning programs should be introduced in areas of population explosion; 2) health education campaigns should be directed against the high rates of communicable diseases and childhood immunization campaigns should be introduced; 3) nutrition education should be integrated into community development programs; and 4) vital statistics collection should be centrally supervised.
[Washington, D.C., International Bank for Reconstruction and Development], 1981 Jul. 375 p.Population projections -- 1980-2000 and long-term (stationary population) are presented in tables for Africa, the United States and Canada, Latin America, Asia, Europe, and Oceania. The base year for the projection of base total population and age/sex composition is 1980. The total population in 1980 was taken from a variety of sources, but the principal source was the United Nations Population Division -- "World Population Trends and Prospects by Country, 1950-2025: Summary Report of the 1980 Assessment, 1980", a computer printout. The base year mortality levels used in the projection of mortality level and trend are in general the same as those used in the recent United Nations projections. The principal source of the base fertility rates was also the revised United Nations population projections. Throughout the projections it was assumed that international migration would have no appreciable impact. Population projection was prepared separately for every country in the world. Since many countries reached stability only after 175 years of projection, the results of the projection are presented at 5-year intervals for the 1980-2000 period and at 25 year intervals thereafter. For each of the 165 separate units, the following information is presented in the accompanying tables: population by sex and 5-year age groups; birth rate, death rate, and rate of natural increase; gross reproduction rate, total fertility rate; expectation of life at birth and infant mortality rates for males and females separately; and net reproduction rates. According to this projection the total world population would increase from 4.416 billion in 1980 to 6.114 billion in the year 2000. The average growth rate during 1980-2000 would be about 1.63% per year decreasing from 1.71% in 1980 to 1.42% in the year 2000. The birth rate would decline by 5 points and the death rate by 2 points. The share of the population in less developed regions would be 1.94% per year compared to 0.59% per year for more developed regions. The estimated hypothetical stationary population of the world according to the present projection is 10.1 billion.
[Unpublished] 1977 Jun. 169 p.Population and development policy decisions must be based on accurate demographic data in order to correctly formulate priorities in budgets and expenditures. Family planning as a public policy cannot be imposed upon private citizens; it must be freely chosen. The question remains: what determines fertility in the private sector and what can government do to align policy with performance? Research and analysis is needed to develop policy in keeping with local customs, standards, and individual sensibilities. Should more money be spent on education, health care, or development? Research from poor countries is spotty and disorganized. More money is spent on reduction of infant mortality than on family planning. Fertility control is still a controversial subject. Funds supplied for population and health are barely matched by many developing countries whose priorities lean toward agriculture and nutrition. In Haiti the 5-year development plan ignores the interactions between population growth and economic development. If the current level of fertility continues, it will act as a deterrent to development. A population impact analysis of El Salvador examines the effect AID policies and programs have on fertility control. Implementation of a policy in its first stages is described for Guatemala. Family models and global models show touchpoints where public policy might interface with private practice. Rural development implies increased production, equal opportunities, and a low fertility rate. All 3 are interrelated and affected by demographic events. Rising incomes, below a threshold level, has increased the fertility rate among the very poor.
New York, New York: United Nations fund for population activities, 1978. 8 pIn the 4 years following the World Population Conference at Bucharest, almost all U.N. member countries participate in the U.N. Fund for Population Activities as donors and/or recipients. This momentum must be maintained and the implications of demographic trends must be assessed. The lowest forecast for world population in the Year 2000 is 1.8 billion more than in 1975. This "giantism" should not be regarded as a spectre but as a probable reality which needs to be faced boldly in order to take into account increased demands on Earth's resources in making government policy and planning programs for development and deployment of those resources. There are clear signs that fertility will fall as much as 30% during the next 20 years. This, however encouraging it seems, should not obscure the reality that it is occurring at a very high level of actual numbers of people whose lives must be sustained. In the developing world life expectancy has risen from 42 to 54 years; in the developed world from 65 to 71. In the Third World, infant mortality continues to be the most important determinant of general mortality levels even though there are encouraging indications of a steep fall in this area. A resurgence of malaria is bound to have a serious effect on mortality as it is being found mainly in already malnourished areas. At current rates all cities are expected to grow in the next 20 years. Programs and national policy must be established to manage the problems accompanying these crowded cities. Migration is high because economic growth rates cannot sustain the growing populations of developing countries. The magnitude of this movement is causing problems for most countries in the developed world, with one suggested solution being to close the doors to all immigration. The developed and developing worlds share two population problems: 1) the number of youth is growing resulting in a potential for massive increases in fertility; and 2) the decline of fertility rates and increased life expectancy resulting in marked changes in the age structure. The most significant principle emerging from this paper is that changes taking place in demographic processes should be recognized as powerful determinants of relevance in the formulation of social and economic policy and plans in every major area of national concern.