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Habitat Debate. 2001 Jun; 7(2): p..It is projected that the world population will rise from 5.7 billion in 1995 to 8.9 billion in 2050, growing at the rate of 1.3 per cent per annum in the period 1995- 2000 to 0.3 per cent per annum in the period 2045-2050. The assumption is that there will be a massive fertility decline in the majority of countries, a scenario expected to produce ageing populations, i.e. populations in which the proportion of children is declining and that of older persons is increasing. Voluntary and Forced Migration The world is polarized between the net-immigration in more developed countries and the net-emigration in the developing world. The developed world receives immigrants mainly from Asia and Latin America, and to a certain extent, Africa. Immigration patterns suggest that countries in Europe and North America are becoming less homogenous in terms of race and culture. (excerpt)
International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD), Cairo, Egypt, 5-13th September 1994. National position paper.
Lusaka, Zambia, National Commission for Development Planning, 1993 Dec. viii, 39 p.Zambia's country report for the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development opens with a review of the country's unfavorable economic and demographic situation. Population growth has been increasing (by 2.6% for 1963-69 and 3.2% for 1980-90) because of a high birth rate and a death rate which is declining despite an increase in infant and child mortality. The population is extremely mobile and youthful (49.6% under age 15 years in 1990). Formulation of a population policy began in 1984, and an implementation program was announced in 1989. International guidance has played a major role in the development of the policy and implementation plans but an inadequacy of resources has hindered implementation. New concerns (the status of women; HIV/AIDS; the environment; homeless children and families; increasing poverty; and the increase in infant, child, and maternal mortality) have been added to the formerly recognized urgent problems caused by the high cost of living, youth, urbanization, and rural underdevelopment. To date, population activities have been donor-driven; therefore, more government and individual support will be sought and efforts will be made to ensure that donor support focuses on the local institutionalization of programs. The country report presents the demographic context in terms of population size and growth, fertility, mortality, migration, urbanization, spatial distribution, population structure, and the implications of this demographic situation. The population policy, planning, and program framework is described through information on national perceptions of population issues, the role of population in development planning, the evolution and current status of the population policy, and a profile of the national population program (research methodology; integrated planning; information, education, and communication; health, fertility, and mortality regulatory initiatives; HIV/AIDS; migration; the environment; adolescents; women; and demography training). A description of the operational aspects of population and family planning (FP) program implementation covers political and national support, the national implementation strategy, program coordination, service delivery and quality of care, HIV/AIDS, personnel recruitment and training, evaluation, and financial resources. The discussion of the national plan for the future involves priority concerns, the policy framework, programmatic activities, and resource mobilization.
National population report prepared in the context of the International Conference on Population and Development, ICPD, 1994, Cairo, Egypt.
Port Louis, Mauritius, National Task Force on Population, 1993 , 64,  p.Mauritius has one of the highest population densities in the world, and it can boast of one of the highest literacy rates among developing countries. Each of the development plans of Mauritius has contained a chapter devoted to population policy. This country report prepared for the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development borrows heavily from those plans. The first development plan (1971-75) emphasized employment creation to achieve growth with equity. By 1982-84, the emphasis shifted to productive employment, and, by 1987 nearly full employment was reached. The goal now is to achieve sustainable development and to dovetail the demands of a rapidly industrializing economy with the social needs of a slowly aging population. The country report presents the demographic context in terms of past trends, the current situation, and the outlook for the future. Demographic transition was achieved in a relatively short time and resulted in changes in the age structure of the population from "young" to "active." The population policy (which aims to maintain the replacement level gross reproduction rate and reduce fertility rates), planning, and program framework is described through information on national perceptions of population issues, the evolution and current status of the population policy, the role of population in development planning, and a profile of the national population program (maternal-child health and family planning services; information, education, and communication; research methodology; the status of women; mortality; population distribution; migration; and multi-sectoral activities). The description of the operational aspects of population and family planning (FP) program implementation includes political and national support, the national implementation strategy, evaluation, finances and resources, and the role of the World Population Plan of Action. The discussion of the national plan for the future involves emerging and priority concerns (reducing unwanted pregnancies and abortions, particularly among adolescents and unmarried women, an increase in teenage fertility rates, reducing the fertility rate which rose to 2.3 from 1.9 in 1986, and reducing infant, child, and maternal mortality rates), the policy framework, programmatic activities, and resource mobilization.
National report on population. Prepared for the International Conference on Population and Development, September 1994.
[Tunis], Tunisia, Ministry of Planning and Regional Development, 1994 Aug. 57 p.Tunisia's country report for the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development opens with a brief discussion of the country's history and development achievements (the population growth rate has been reduced from 3.2% in the beginning of the 1960s to less than 2%, and Tunisia has achieved significant improvement over the past 2 decades in human development indices). Tunisia's population policy has gone through 3 stages: the establishment of an important legal framework during the 1950s and 60s, the creation of a National Family and Population Board and establishment of basic health care facilities during the 1970s, and an emphasis on environmentally-responsible development with an attempt to strengthen the integration of population policies into development strategies beginning in the 1980s. The report continues with an overview of the demographic context (historical trends and future prospects). The chapter on population policies and programs covers the evolution and status of the policies; sectoral strategies; development and research; a profile of the family health, family planning (FP), IEC (information, education, and communication), and data collection and analysis programs. This chapter also provides details on policies and programs which link women and families to population and development and on those which concern mortality, population distribution, and migration. The third major section of the report presents operational features of the implementation of population and FP programs, in particular, political support, program formulation and execution, supervision and evaluation, financing, and the importance and relevance of the world plan of action for population. Tunisia's national action plan for the future is discussed next in terms of new problems and priorities and a mobilization of resources. This section also includes a table which sets out the components, goals, strategies, and programs of action of the population policy. In conclusion, it is stated that Tunisia's population policy fits well with the world program of action because it promotes human resources and sustainable development and respects international recommendations about human rights in general and the rights of women in particular.
Country report: Bangladesh. International Conference on Population and Development, Cairo, 5-13 September 1994.
[Unpublished] 1994. iv, 45 p.The country report prepared by Bangladesh for the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development begins by highlighting the achievements of the family planning (FP)/maternal-child health (MCH) program. Political commitment, international support, the involvement of women, and integrated efforts have led to a decline in the population growth rate from 3 to 2.07% (1971-91), a decline in total fertility rate from 7.5 to 4.0% (1974-91), a reduction in desired family size from 4.1 to 2.9 (1975-89), a decline in infant mortality from 150 to 88/1000 (1975-92), and a decline in the under age 5 years mortality from 24 to 19/1000 (1982-90). In addition, the contraceptive prevalence rate has increased from 7 to 40% (1974-91). The government is now addressing the following concerns: 1) the dependence of the FP and health programs on external resources; 2) improving access to and quality of FP and health services; 3) promoting a demand for FP and involving men in FP and MCH; and 4) achieving social and economic development through economic overhaul and by improving education and the status of women and children. The country report presents the demographic context by giving a profile of the population and by discussing mortality, migration, and future growth and population size. The population policy, planning, and program framework is described through information on national perceptions of population issues, the evolution and current status of the population policy (which is presented), the role of population in development planning, and a profile of the national population program (reproductive health issues; MCH and FP services; information, education, and communication; research methodology; the environment, aging, adolescents and youth, multi-sectoral activities, women's status; the health of women and girls; women's education and role in industry and agriculture, and public interventions for women). The description of the operational aspects of population and family planning (FP) program implementation includes political and national support, the national implementation strategy, evaluation, finances and resources, and the role of the World Population Plan of Action. The discussion of the national plan for the future involves emerging and priority concerns, the policy framework, programmatic activities, resource mobilization, and regional and global cooperation.
The Philippines: country report on population. International Conference on Population and Development, 5-13 September 1994, Cairo, Egypt.
[Manila], Philippines, Commission on Population, 1994. , 40 p.The country report on population prepared by the Philippines for the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development opens with a discussion of the 3 interdependent strategies which will be used to achieve development: total human resource development, international competitiveness, and sustainable development. Since the Philippines envisions development proceeding primarily from the initiatives of individuals, families, nongovernment organizations (NGOs), cooperatives, etc., empowerment of the people is a major objective of the government. To this end, the family is seen as the focal point for analysis of needs and resource use and for mobilization. The problems which beset the Philippines today and which are exacerbated by rapid population growth are pervasive poverty, a heavy debt burden, high unemployment and underemployment, a decrease in productive land, environmental degradation, and a poor economic performance. The country report considers the relationship between population, economic growth, and sustainable development in terms of the demographic situation and the economic situation. The report provides a history of the development of population policy and population programs in the country. The concerns of the population program are the environment and development, transitional population growth, the population structure, urbanization, migration, the status of women, maternal and child health and family planning (FP), and data collection and analysis. Various components of the implementation of the population program are described including political and national support, the national implementation strategy, the integration of population and development and assessment of integration efforts, responsible parenthood/FP, and the assessment of FP service delivery. Mechanisms for program monitoring and evaluation are presented along with an assessment of program efficiency, and the financial aspects of the program are discussed. After touching on the relevance of the World Population Plan of Action, the report puts forth the national 9-point action plan for the future which has the following goals: 1) to integrate population and development planning; 2) to strengthen the responsible parenthood/FP program; 3) to strengthen population education and the adolescent fertility program; 4) to increase the participation of women; 5) to build capabilities and develop institutions; 6) to decentralize administration; 7) to develop a sustainable financial plan; 8) to increase NGO and people's organization participation; and 9) to develop a reliable data base. The appendices present the demographic, health, and economic indicators for 1960-90 in tabular form and provide an outline of population policies, legislation, and incentives.
POPULATION TODAY. 1989 Jan; 17(1):6-8.The quality of data collected by the U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS) is assessed, with a focus on differences between U.S. and U.N. definitions of immigrants, emigrants, and refugees. The author suggests that "gaps in migration data collected for the U.S. limit their usefulness for studying international migration and estimating national population change. For example, no information is collected on emigration of legal permanent residents or U.S. citizens, nor is there any direct information on the immigration of U.S. citizens. Data collected on legal immigrants are based on a legal and administrative definition that often conflicts with the demographic definition of an immigrant." (EXCERPT)
International Migration/Migrations Internationales/Migraciones Internacionales. 1986 Mar; 24(1):77-93.Return migration and its consequences has attracted increasing attention since Western European countries adopted policies in the mid 1970s to stop the inflow of foreign workers and to promote reintegration of emigrants. This paper explores the definition of return migration, discusses the different contexts in which return migration arises, and points out the many gaps that exist in understanding return migration and its consequences. The report concludes that there is no consensus on the definition of return migration; future advances in its analysis and measurement depend on the availability of specific criteria to distinguish return movements from other migration taking place in the world today. Also, relatively little attention has been devoted to return flows of migrants in developing countries due to paucity of information and fluidity of some of the movements involved. Yet another area for concern is the lack of information pertaining to female emigrants. Some recommendations that may lead to the eventual satisfaction of these needs include: 1) defining returnees as persons who, having the nationality of the country that they are entering, have spent at least one year abroad and have returned with the intention of staying at least one year in the country of their nationality; 2) having coontries with important emigration flows monitor return migration by gathering and publishing information on returning migrants; 3) giving particular attention to the problems faced by female returnees and adopting measures to ensure equal aid to males and females; 4) studying and monitoring the consequences of return migration on whole families instead of on only certain members of the family; 5) monitoring the consequences of sizeable repatriation flows, giving particular attention to the success of reintegration programs; 6) developing novel methods to monitor and study the impact of return flows of emigrants whose situation in the receiving state was irregular.
UNESCO/IPDC Regional Seminar on the Media and the African Family, Livingstone, Zambia, 6-10 January 1986. Report.
[Unpublished] 1986 Jan. v, 63 p.A seminar was planned and conducted by UNESCO's Population Division during January 1986 to promote increased media attention to issues which affect family stability and welfare. Especially important are the social, economic, and health problems created by high rates of population growth, urbanization, and migration. The seminar intended to give participants an opportunity to: examine the changing characteristics and emergin problems of the African family; review and appraise both past and current efforts on the part of the media to promote understanding of the interrelationships between socioeconomic conditions and family welfare, composition, stability, and size; and develop plans to increase the involvement and effectiveness of the media in promoting understanding of these interrelationships and in enabling families to make decisions and take action to enhance their welfare and stability. This report of the seminar is presented in 2 sections. The 1st section presents the participants' review of the changing nature of the African family over recent decades and the socioeconomic and sociocultural problems which have emerged as a consequence of these changes. Additionally, the 1st section reviews the extent to which communication systems in the region have tried to deal with the population related issues which affect family welfare. A "Communication Plan of Action" is proposed by the participants as a logical outcome of their 2 analyses and as a synthesis of their recommendations for the manner in which communication systems in the region must develop in order to meet ongoing and future population-family life changes. The Plan of Action identifies the following strategies as necessary to realize the increased involvement of the media in family issues and problems: institutionalizing population family life content within the curricula of media training institutions within the region; intensifying preservice and inservice training of media personnel to enable them to deal effectively with the demographic, social, and economic issues which impinge upon family welfare; highlighting population family life communication matters; ensuring that research on population family life issues be widely disseminated to media personnel and media based organizations; sensitizing political and administrative decisionmakers to population family life issues so that media communication can be supported and opportunities for media coverage can be extended; emphasizing in national development plans the importance of the media in generating public awareness of and response to the constraints placed upon national development and improved family welfare by rapid population growth and large-scale urban migration; and encouraging the involvement of community organizations in media programs. The 2nd section of the report includes the participants examination of the communication planning process.
In: Population structures and models: developments in spatial demography, edited by Robert Woods and Philip Rees. Boston, Massachusetts/London, England, George Allen and Unwin, 1986. 367-89.The fundamental question addressed in this chapter is the reasonableness of available projections of urbanization, such as those recently published by the United Nations....Drawing on simple models of urban and rural population dynamics, we propose two alternative methods for assessing projected urbanization paths in terms of their underlying assumptions. One focuses on the implied rural-urban migration flows, whereas the other emphasizes the association between urbanization and economic development. The case of the Asian Pacific region is given as an example. (EXCERPT)
Report on the Inter-Agency Consultation Meeting on UNFPA Regional Programme for the Middle East and Mediterranean Region.
[Unpublished] 1979. 47 p.This report by the United Nations Fund for Population Activities covers its needs, accomplishments, and prospective programs for the years 1979-1983 for the MidEast and Mediterranean region. Interagency coordination and cooperation between UN organizations and member countries is stressed. There is a need for rural development and upgrading of employment situations. Research on population policy and population dynamics is necessary; this will entail gathering of data and its regionwide dissemination, much more so in Arabic than before. Family planning programs and general health education need to be developed and upgraded. More knowledge of migration patterns is necessary, and greater involvement of women in the UNFPA and related activities is stressed.
The degree of success achieved in the population projections for Latin America made since 1950: sources of error: data and studies needed in order to improve the basis for calculating projections.
In: United Nations. Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs. Proceedings of the World Population Conference, Belgrade, 30 August-10 September 1965. Vol. 3. Selected papers and summaries: projections, measurement of population trends. New York, UN, 1967. 27-33. (E/CONF.41/4)High, medium, and low population size and age-sex structure projections, prepared by the United Nations in 1954-1955 for 15 Latin American countries, were compared to recent census data in an effort to evaluate the success of the projections, to identify sources of error, and to suggest ways to improve projections in the future. For the countries as a whole, the high projections underestimated the actual population by 3.35%, the medium projections underestimated the population by 4.5%, and the low projections underestimated the population by 7%. Deviation for individual projections ranged from a 14.03% overestimation of the Peruvian population to a 15.05% underestimation of the Costa Rican population. In general, projections were considered unsuccessful except for those made for Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama, and Argentina. The projections for each country were examined and the sources of error were identified. In some cases, even though the projections were not grossly deviant from the actual population, the results were due to a series of errors which happened to cancel each other out. Errors were due either to the inappropriate use of methodological procedures or to the failure to adequately anticipate fertility, mortality, and migration trends. Errors can be minimized in the future by improving the population base data on which the projections are made. Although progress was made in improving census-taking in Latin America during the 1950s, censuses taken since 1960 have once again declined in quality. Furthermore, many countries still lack adequate vital records systems. Until the quality of the vital records and census systems is improved, sample surveys should be used to develop population base data for making projections. There is also a need to improve data gathering in reference to international migration patterns and trends.
[Unpublished] 1977 Jun. 169 p.Population and development policy decisions must be based on accurate demographic data in order to correctly formulate priorities in budgets and expenditures. Family planning as a public policy cannot be imposed upon private citizens; it must be freely chosen. The question remains: what determines fertility in the private sector and what can government do to align policy with performance? Research and analysis is needed to develop policy in keeping with local customs, standards, and individual sensibilities. Should more money be spent on education, health care, or development? Research from poor countries is spotty and disorganized. More money is spent on reduction of infant mortality than on family planning. Fertility control is still a controversial subject. Funds supplied for population and health are barely matched by many developing countries whose priorities lean toward agriculture and nutrition. In Haiti the 5-year development plan ignores the interactions between population growth and economic development. If the current level of fertility continues, it will act as a deterrent to development. A population impact analysis of El Salvador examines the effect AID policies and programs have on fertility control. Implementation of a policy in its first stages is described for Guatemala. Family models and global models show touchpoints where public policy might interface with private practice. Rural development implies increased production, equal opportunities, and a low fertility rate. All 3 are interrelated and affected by demographic events. Rising incomes, below a threshold level, has increased the fertility rate among the very poor.
Population Bulletin of the United Nations. 1982; (14):17-30.UN medium range projections prepared in the 1980 assessment projected the population of individual countries up to the year 2025. The long range projections discussed here were prepared by projecting the population of 8 major world regions from 2025-2100. The purpose of the projection was to observe the implications of the changes from the 1978 assessment made in the 1980 medium range projections on the long range projections of the world's populations. As in previous projections, high, medium, and low variants were prepared in which fertility is assumed to be constant at the replacement level but at different times in the future. In addition, these projections contain 2 variants not previously prepared--namely, the growth and decline variants, in which the ultimate net reproduction rate is 1.05 and 0.95, respectively. In all the variants, expectation of life at birth is assumed to reach 75 years for males and 80 for females. According to the current medium variant projection, the earth's population will become stationary after 2095 at 10.2 billion persons, compared with a total of 10.5 billion projected in the 1978 assessment. The lower projection is largely attributable to a recent decline in the growth rate of several countries in South Asia which was greater than previously assumed. When the world population becomes stationary, both crude birth and death rates would be about 13/1000. In the decline variant, total population would peak at 7.7 billion in 2055, then decline gradually to 7.2 billion in 2100. The total population as projected by the growth variant would equal 14.9 billion in 2100 and would still be growing slowly. Between 1980 and 2050, 95% of the world's growth will occur in the currently less developed regions. Their share of total population will increase from 75-85% during that period. The age structure in all regions is expected to converge to 1 in which the median age is 39 years, the proportion both below age 15 and above age 64 is about 19% each, and the dependency ratio is about 60. A precise degree of accuracy cannot be specified, but the argument is made that the actual future population of the world is very likely to fall within the range of the projection variants and probably not far from the medium variant. (author's)