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POPULI. 1987; 14(1):39-47.This reevaluation of the demographic transition theory of Notestein (1945) presents a view of developing countries trapped in the 2nd stage and unable to achieve the economic and social gains counted upon to reduce births. Among the half of the world's countries that have not yet reached the demographic transition, 5 regions have growth rates of 2.2% or more yearly, or 20-fold per century, a are unable to prevent declining living standards and deteriorating ecological life-support systems. These are Southeast Asia (except Japan, China, and possibly Thailand and Indonesia), Latin America, the Indian subcontinent, the Middle East and Africa. In these countries, death rates will begin to rise, reversing the process of demographic transition. Examples of this phenomenon include 7 countries in West Africa with deteriorating agricultural and fuelwood yields, such that a World Bank study concluded that desertification is inevitable without a technological breakthrough. The elements of the life-support system, food, water, fuelwood and forests, are interrelated, and their failure will create "ecological refugees." When economic resources of jobs and income are added to biological resources, conflict and social instability will further hamper implementation of sound population policies. For the 1st time, governments are faced with the task of reducing birth rates as living conditions deteriorate, a challenge requiring new approaches. There are examples, such as China, where broad-based, inexpensive health care systems and well-designed family planning programs have encouraged small families without widespread economic gains. The most needed ingredient is leadership.
Comparative Study on Migration, Urbanization and Development in the ESCAP Region (RAS/P13/79). Rev. version.
Population Research Leads. 1982 Jan; (6):1-36.Development of a study project by the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) on migration, urbanization, and development in the following countries is described: Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Sri Lanka, and Thailand. The project's immediate goal is to assist decision makers in formulating population redistribution policies. It was recommended that ESCAP develop and test a migration questionnaire to assist member countries in undertaking surveys to study the interrelationships of migration and development. Upon completion of survey manuals to assist in the survey implementation, it was suggested that ESCAP run a series of in-country workshops to discuss the applications of survey results for policy formulation. A national migration survey will be taken in each country in the early 1980s in order to discern pattern and type of population mobility, factors that cause people to move or not to move, and the consequences of migration on places of origin and destination. A sample of 14,000 households in each country will be selected and 1 person of age 15-64 will be chosen as the respondent for each household. the following are some items which will be studied: 1) volume of migration streams within and between metropolitan areas and urban-rural areas; 2) decision making factors; 3) interactions between population movement and family structure, chages in fertility levels, employment, and education; 4) impact of agricultural systems on seasonal movements; 5) contributions of migrants to the cities; and 6) implications of international migration to and from the country. Leading family planning agencies will use these results to develop policy relating to population distribution, industry location, migration laws, regional economic planning, modern technology, and rural education. The management framework of the project is presented. After these results are published, government agencies can utilize them by incorporating direct questions on population movement into the national census, conducting demonstration projects to assess the impact of population movement programs, and training personnel.