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  1. 1

    Economic analysis of HIV / AIDS. Background paper.

    Bonnel R

    Washington, D.C., World Bank, AIDS Campaign Team for Africa, 2000 Sep. 16 p.

    HIV/AIDS is a major development crisis. Not since the Black Death devastated medieval Europe has humankind observed infectious disease deaths on such a scale. Life expectancies, which rose steadily before the onset of the HIV epidemic, are decreasing in nearly all the 25 countries where the adult prevalence rate exceeds 5 percent. In the countries most heavily affected by HIV/AIDS, life expectancy is projected to fall to about 30 years by 2010– a level not seen since the beginning of the 20th century. Various factors related to poverty, inequality, gender inequality, sexually transmitted infections, social norms, political and social changes, including labor migration, conflicts and ethnic factions have facilitated the rapid spread of HIV. But what has enabled HIV/AIDS to undermine economic and social development is its unprecedented erosion of some of the main determinants of economic growth such as social capital, domestic savings and human capital. For these reasons, the HIV epidemic has been transformed from a health issue into a much wider issue impairing economic and social development. Because it prevents an increasing share of the population from participating in economic growth, the HIV/AIDS epidemic increases poverty. The result is a vicious circle whereby HIV/AIDS reduces economic growth and increases poverty, which in turn accelerates the spread of HIV. Preventing further spread of HIV/AIDS, in addition to providing care and support programs to those both affected and infected by this epidemic, requires early intervention and the mobilization of external resources. The purpose of this paper is to discuss and quantify the economic rationale that underlies such an effort. (excerpt)
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  2. 2

    [Population and development in the Republic of Zaire: policies and programs] Population et developpement en Republique du Zaire: politiques et programmes.

    Zaire. Departement du Plan. Direction des Etudes Macroeconomiques

    [Unpublished] 1986. Presented at the All-Africa Parliamentary Conference on Population and Development, Harare, Zimbabwe, May 12-16, 1986. 9 p.

    The 1st census of Zaire, in July 1984, indicated that the population of 30 million was growing at a rate of at least 2.3%/year. The crude birth rate was estimated at 46/1000 and was believed to be higher in urban areas than in rural because of better health and educational conditions. The crude death rate was estimated at 16/1000 and the infant mortality rate at 106/1000. 46.5% of the population is under 15. The population is projected to reach 34.5 million in 1990, with urban areas growing more rapidly than rural. Zaire is at the stage of demographic transition where the gap between fertility and mortality is very wide. The consequences for national development include massive migration and rural exodus, unemployment and underemployment, illness, low educational levels, rapid urbanization, and increasing poverty. In the past decade, Zaire has undertaken a number of activities intended to improve living conditions, but as yet there is no explicit official policy integrating population and development objectives. In 1983, the Executive Council of Zaire organized a mission to identify basic needs of the population, with the assistance of the UN Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA). In 1985, the UNFPA developed a 5-year development plan. The UNFPA activities include demographic data collection, demographic policy and research, maternal-child health and family planning, population education, and women and development. In the area of data collection, the 1st census undertaken with UNFPA help has increased the availability of timely and reliable demographic data. The vital registration system is to be improved and a permanent population register to be developed to provide data on population movement. A National Population Committee is soon to be established to assist the Executive Council in defining a coherent population policy in harmony with the economic, social, and cultural conditions of Zaire. Demographic research will be conducted by the Demographic Department of the University of Kinshasa and the National Institute of Statistics. A primary health care policy has been defined to increase health coverage to 60% from the current level of 20%. Zaire has favored family planning services integrated with the primary health care system since 1979. At present 2 components of the Desirable Births" program are underway, the Desirable Births Service Project undertaken in 1983 and the Rural Health Project undertaken in 1982, both executed by the Department of Public Health with financing provided by US Agency for International Development. The RAPID (Resources for the Analysis of the Impact of Population on Development) program has been used since 1985 to inform politicians, technicians, and planners. Efforts have been underway since 1965 to include women in the development process, and a new family code is being studied which would give better protection to some rights of women and children.
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  3. 3

    Health and health services in Judaea, Samaria and Gaza 1983-1984: a report by the Ministry of Health of Israel to the Thirty-Seventh world Health Assembly, Geneva, May 1984.

    Israel. Ministry of Health

    Jerusalem, Israel, Ministry of Health, 1984 Mar. 195 p.

    Health conditions and health services in Judea, Samaria, and Gaza during the 1967-83 period are discussed. Health-related activities and changes in the social and economic environment are assessed and their impact on health is evaluated. Specific activities performed during the current year are outlined. The following are specific facets of the health care system that are the focus of many current projects in these districts; the development of a comprehensive network of primary care programs and centers for preventive and curative services has been given high priority and is continuing; renovation and expansion of hospital facilities, along with improved staffing, equipment, and supplies for basic and specialty health services increase local capabilities for increasingly sophisticated health care, and consequently there is a decreasing need to send patients requiring specialized care to supraregional referral hospitals, except for highly specialized services; inadequacies in the preexisting reporting system have necessitated a continuting process of development for the gathering and publication of general and specific statistical and demographic data; stress has been placed on provision of safe drinking water, development of sewage and solid waste collection and disposal systems, as well as food control and other environmental sanitation activities; major progress has been made in the establishment of a funding system that elicits the participation and financial support of the health care consumer through volunary health insurance, covering large proportions of the population in the few years since its inception; the continuing building room in residential housing along with the continuous development of essential community sanitation infrastructure services are important factors in improved living and health conditions for the people; and the health system's growth must continue to be accompanied by planning, evaluation, and research atall levels. Specific topics covered include: demography and vital statistics; socioeconomic conditions; morbidity and mortality; hospital services; maternal and child health; nutrition; health education; expanded program immunization; environmental health; mental health; problems of special groups; health insurance; community and voluntary agency participation; international agencies; manpower and training; and planning and evaluation. Over the past 17 years, Judea, Samaria, and Gaza have been areas of rapid population growth and atthe same time of rapid socioeconomic development. In addition there have been basic changes in the social and health environment. As measured by socioeconomic indicators, much progress has been achieved for and by the people. As measured by health status evaluation indicators, the people benefit from an incresing quantity and quality of primary care and specialty services. The expansion of the public health infrastructure, combined with growing access to and utilization of personal preventive services, has been a key contributor to this process.
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  4. 4

    Interview: Mr. George Walmsley: UNFPA Country Director for the Philippines.

    ASIA-PACIFIC POPIN BULLETIN. 1991 Jun; 3(2):7-11.

    George Walmsley, UNFPA country director for the Philippines, discusses demographic and economic conditions in the Philippines, and present plans to revitalize the national population program after 20 years of only modest achievements. The Philippines is a rapidly growing country with much poverty, unemployment and underemployment, uneven population distribution, and a large, highly dependent segment of children and youths under age 15. Initial thrusts of the population program were in favor of fertility reduction, ultimately changing to adopt a perspective more attuned to promoting overall family welfare. Concurrent with this change also came a shift from a clinic-based to community-based approach. Fertility declines have nonetheless grown weaker over the past 8-10 years. A large gap exists between family planning knowledge and practice, with contraceptive prevalence rates declining from 45% in 1986 to 36% in 1988. Behind this lackluster performance are a lack of consistent political support, discontinuities in program implementation, a lack of coordination among participating agencies, and obstacles to program implementation at the field level. The present government considers the revitalization of this program a priority concern. Mr. Walmsley discusses UNFPA's definition of a priority country, and what that means for the Philippines in terms of resources nd future activities. He further responds to questions about the expected effect of the Catholic church upon program implementation and success, non-governmental organization involvement, the role of information and information systems in the program, the relationship between population, environment and sustainable development, and the status of women and its effect on population.
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  5. 5

    Population and development in the Sahel: the challenges of rapid population growth.

    Institut du Sahel. Centre d'Etudes et de Recherche sur la Population pour le Developpement [CERPOD]

    Bamako, Mali, CERPOD, 1989. 20 p.

    The 9 countries in the Sahel that are members of the Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS) are Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Chad, Gambia, Guinea Bissau, Mali, Mauritania, Niger and Senegal. This booklet describes the historical and socio economic background of the CILSS countries and discusses the actual demographic situation, the dismal development problems that the region faces partly due to colonial policies and more recently to the World Bank's structural adjustment policies. A major constraint is that the economy has not developed fast enough to keep up with the rapidly growing population, especially since 46% of all Sahelians are under age 15. The population for the Sahel is estimated at 40 million making-up 7% of Africa's total population; the total fertility rate is 6.5; the growth rate is 3% and doubling the 23 years; the crude birth rate is 47.3/1000; life expectancy is 48.5 and the crude death rate is 17.4/1000; life expectancy is 49, 3 years the average in Africa of 52; infant mortality in 1988 was 143/1000 compared to the world-wide average of 75/1000; child mortality exceeds the infant mortality rate. The population of the Sahel is mostly rural with only Senegal having 40% of its population living in major cities. The least urban countries are Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger where the urban populations represent less that 1.4 of the total. However, if the present trends continue the capitals of the Sahelian countries will continue to grow and expand because of migration from the rural areas. In 1989 the Council of Ministers of CILSS adopted "the N'Djamena Plan of Action on Population and Development in the Sahel" recommending that countries adopt population policies that integrate development issues. In 1988 Senegal was the 1st and only country to adopt an explicit population policy.
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  6. 6

    A demographic perspective on developing Asia and its relevance to the Bank.

    Pernia EM

    Manila, Philippines, Asian Development Bank, Economics Office, 1987 May. 28 p. (Economics Office Report Series No. 40)

    Even though population growth rates continue to decline in developing member countries (DMCs) of the Asian Development Bank, they will experience absolute population increases larger than those in the past. More importantly, the labor force continues to grow and absolute increases will be greater than any other time in history. Family planning education and access to contraceptives have contributed to the decline in population growth rates, but nothing can presently be done to decrease the rates of increase of the labor force because the people have already been born. Since most of the DMSs' populations are growing at 2% or more/year, much needed economic growth is delayed. For example, for any country with a growing population to maintain the amount of capital/person, it must spread capital. Yet the faster the population grows the lesser the chances for increasing that amount. The Bank's short to medium term development policy should include loans for projects that will generate employment using capital widening and deepening and that develop rural areas, such as employment in small industries, to prevent urban migration. Other projects that engulf this policy are those concerning primary, secondary and adult education; health; food supply; and housing and infrastructure. The long term development policy must bolster population programs in DMCs so as to reduce the growth of the economically active segment of the population in the 21st century. In addition, the Bank should address fertility issues as more and more women join the work force. The Bank can play a major role in Asian development by considering the indirect demographic and human resource impacts of each project.
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  7. 7

    Assessing the demographic consequences of major development projects. Proceedings of a United Nations Workshop, New York, 1-4 December 1986.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs

    New York, New York, United Nations, 1988. vi, 183 p. (ST/ESA/SER.R/81)

    Although considerable awareness of the behavioral relationships and interactions between demographic and socioeconomic processes has been established, analysis of the specific demographic impact of development projects has lagged behind. To remedy this situation, the United Nations has undertaken a project aimed at developing a practical, cost-effective methodology for assessing the demographic impact of development projects in a variety of settings and countries. The approach developed is based on available sources of data such as censuses and vital registration systems. The methodology was applied in particular to electrification and irrigation projects in selected developing countries and a workshop was convened in 1986 to review the approach developed. Background papers presented at the workshop (included in this volume) focused on both the experiences of other institutions with population impact analysis and on methodological and measurement issues. Workshop participants identified 2 types of problems in measuring the strength of the relationship between a development project input and its demographic effect: those encountered in measuring the observed relationship for a given development project, and those encountered in assessing the relative effects of different projects. It was recommended that changes at both the macro and micro levels should be compared, with an emphasis on how such factors affect demographic behavior. Ecological analysis can then be used to identify the factors that explained demographic differences between communities. There was also consensus that the ideal methodological approach should involve an experimental/control design and a longitudinal time frame. For planners, the utility of such impact studies lies no only in investment allocation or priority ranking of development projects, but in the improvement of project design as well.
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  8. 8

    The state of the world's children 1988.

    Grant JP

    Oxford, England, Oxford University Press, 1988. [9], 86 p.

    The 1988 UNICEF report on the world's children contains chapters describing the multi-sectorial alliance to support child health, the current emphasis on ORT and immunization, the effect of recession on vulnerable children, family rights to knowledge of basic health facts, and support for women in the developing world. Each chapter is illustrated by graphs. There are side panels on programs in specific countries, including Senegal, Syria, Colombia, Bangladesh, Turkey, India, Honduras, Japan and Southern Africa, and highlighted programs including immunization, AIDS, ORT, breast-feeding and tobacco as a test of health. The SAARC is a new regional organization of southern Asian countries committed to immunization and other health goals. Tables of health statistics of the world's nations, divided into 4 groups by "Under 5 Mortality Rate" present basic indicators, nutrition/malnutrition data, health information, education, literacy and media data, demographic indicators, economic indicators and data pertaining to women. The absolute numbers of child deaths had fallen to 16 million in 1980, from 25 million in 1950. Saving children's lives will not exacerbate the population problem because, realizing that their children will survive, families will have fewer children. Furthermore, the methods used to reduce mortality, such as breast feeding and empowerment of families to control their lives, are known to reduce fertility.
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  9. 9

    Basis for the definition of the organization's action policy with respect to population matters.

    Pan American Health Organization [PAHO]

    [Unpublished] 1984 May 8. 31 p. (CE 92/12)

    This report shows how demographic information can be analyzed and used to identify and characterize the groups assigned priority in the Regional Plan of Action and that it is necessary for the improvement of the planning and allocation of health resources so that national health plans can be adapted to encompass the entire population. In discussing the connections between health and population characteristics in the countries of the region, the report covers mortality, fertility and health, and fertility and population increase; spatial distribution and migration; and the structure of the population. Focus then moves on to health, development, and population policies and family planning. The final section of the report considers the response of the health sector to population trends and characteristics and to development-related factors. The operations of the health sector must be revised in keeping with the observed demographic situation and the projections thereof so that the goal of health for all by the year 2000 may be realized. In several countries of the region mortality remains high. In 1/3 of them, infant mortality during the period 1980-85 exceeds 60/1000 live births. If measures are not taken to reduce mortality 55% of the population of Latin America in the year 2000 will still be living in countries with life expectancies at birth of under 70 years. According to the projections, in the year 2000 the birthrate will stand at around 29/1000, with wide differences between the countries of the region, within each of them, and between socioeconomic strata. High fertility will remain a factor hostile to the health of women and children and a determinant of rapid population growth. Some governments view the present or predicted growth rates as excessive; others want to increase them; and some take no explicit position on the matter. The countries would be well advised to assign values to their birthrate, natural increase, and periods for doubling their populations in relation to their development plans and to the prospects for improving the standard of living and health of their populations. An important factor in urban growth is internal migration. These migrants, like some of those who move to other countries, may have health problems requiring special care. Regardless of a country's demographic situation, the health sector has certain responsibilities, including: the need to promote the framing and adoption of population and development policies, in whose implementation the importance of health measures is not open to question; and the need to favor the intersector coordination and articulation required to ensure that population aspects are considered in national development planning.
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  10. 10

    [Rural-rural migration: the case of the colonies] Migracion rural-rural el caso de las colonias.

    Blanes J; Calderon F; Dandler J; Prudencio J; Lanza L

    In: Tras nuevas raices: migraciones internas y colonizacion en Bolivia [by] Carlos Garcia-Tornell, Maria Elena Querejazu, Jose Blanes, Fernando Calderon, Jorge Dandler, Julio Prudencio, Luis Lanza, Giovanni Carnibella, Gloria Ardaya, Gonzalo Flores [and] Alberto Rivera. La Paz, Bolivia, Ministerio de Planeamiento y Coordinacion, Direccion de Planeamiento Social, Proyecto de Politicas de Poblacion, 1984 Apr. 51-251.

    A study of colonization programs in Bolivia was conducted as part of a larger evaluation of population policy. The 1st of 8 chapters examines the history of colonization programs in Bolivia and the role of state and international development agencies. It sketches the disintegration of the peasant economy, and presents 5 variables that appear to be central to colonization processes: the directedness or spontaneity of the colonization, the distance to urban centers and markets, the diversification of production, the length of time settled, and the origin of the migrants. The 2nd chapter describes the study methodology. The major objective was to evaluate government policies and plans in terms of the realistic possibilities of settlement in colonies for peasants expelled from areas of traditional agriculture. Interviews and the existing literature were the major sources used to identify the basic features and problems of colonization programs. 140 structured interviews were held with colonists in the Chapare zone, 43 in Yapacari, and 51 in San Julian. The 3 zones were selected because of their diversity, but the sample was not statistically representative and the findings were essentially qualitative. The 3rd chapter examines the relationships between the place of origin and the stages of settlement. The chapter emphasizes the influence of place of origin and other factors on the processes of differentiation, proletarianization, and pauperization. The 4th chapter examines the productive process, profitability of farming, the market, and reproductive diversification. The next chapter analyzes the technology and the market system of the colonists, the dynamics of the unequal exchange system in which they operate, and aspects related to ecological equilibrium and environmental conservation. The 6th chapter concentrates on family relationships and the role played by the family in colonization. Some features of the population structure of the colonies are described. The 7th chapter assesses forms of organization, mechanisms of social legitimation, and the important role of peasant syndicates. The final chapter summarizes the principal trends encountered in each of the themes analyzed and makes some recommendations concerning the colonization program, especially in reference to the family economy and labor organizations.
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  11. 11

    Global population policy database, 1987.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    New York, New York, United Nations, 1987. vi, 201 p. (Population Policy Paper No. 9; ST/ESA/SER.R/71)

    The purpose of the Global Review and Inventory of Population Policy, 1987 data base, which is described in this document, is to provide current data on the population policies of 170 countries drawn from the Population Policy Data Bank of the Population Division of the UN. The policy topics covered include: population growth; mortality; fertility; internal migration, immigration; emigration; and the integration of population variables into the development planning process. The diskette contains information on selected demographic indicators, including current and projected population size, current levels of fertility and mortality, current population growth rates, and proportions foreign born, as well as data on population policy. The 1st chapter provides a profile of the population policy perceptions of 170 countries in February 1987, as coded by the UN Population Division. The 2nd chapter contains 22 tables showing the frequencies of particular codes on various population policy variables. Annex 1 contains a summary description of the variables included on the diskette. Annex II gives a more detailed description of each variable and the meaning of the codes. Annex III provides diskette order forms which may be used for requesting copies of the database.
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  12. 12

    A world divided.

    Brown LR; Jacobson JL

    POPULI. 1987; 14(1):39-47.

    This reevaluation of the demographic transition theory of Notestein (1945) presents a view of developing countries trapped in the 2nd stage and unable to achieve the economic and social gains counted upon to reduce births. Among the half of the world's countries that have not yet reached the demographic transition, 5 regions have growth rates of 2.2% or more yearly, or 20-fold per century, a are unable to prevent declining living standards and deteriorating ecological life-support systems. These are Southeast Asia (except Japan, China, and possibly Thailand and Indonesia), Latin America, the Indian subcontinent, the Middle East and Africa. In these countries, death rates will begin to rise, reversing the process of demographic transition. Examples of this phenomenon include 7 countries in West Africa with deteriorating agricultural and fuelwood yields, such that a World Bank study concluded that desertification is inevitable without a technological breakthrough. The elements of the life-support system, food, water, fuelwood and forests, are interrelated, and their failure will create "ecological refugees." When economic resources of jobs and income are added to biological resources, conflict and social instability will further hamper implementation of sound population policies. For the 1st time, governments are faced with the task of reducing birth rates as living conditions deteriorate, a challenge requiring new approaches. There are examples, such as China, where broad-based, inexpensive health care systems and well-designed family planning programs have encouraged small families without widespread economic gains. The most needed ingredient is leadership.
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  13. 13

    [Democracy, migration and return: Argentinians, Chileans and Uruguayans in Venezuela] Democracia, migracion y retorno: los Argentinos, Chilenos y Uruguayos en Venezuela.

    Bidegain G

    Caracas, Venezuela, Universidad Catolica Andres Bello, Instituto de Investigaciones Economicas y Sociales, 1986 Jul. 36 p. (Documento de Trabajo No. 29)

    Data from national censuses, migration registers, and the migration survey of 1981 were used to estimate the volume of migration from Chile, Argentina, and Uruguay to Venezuela in the past 35 years as well as the number returning to their countries of origin through programs established by international agencies. Immigrants from the 3 countries to Venezuela have in the past been a tiny minority. In 1950, they numbered just 1277 persons and represented .59% of persons born abroad. They were enumerated at 5531 in the 1961 census, at 8086 in the 1971 census, and at 43,748 in the 1981 census. In 1981, they accounted for 4.1% of the foreign born population. Between 1971-84, 13,074 Argentinians, 23,907 Chileans, and 6947 Uruguayans entered Venezuela. From 1971-79, 45,848 immigrants from the 3 countries entered Venezuela, with 13,000 more entering than exiting in 1978 alone. 1973-78 were years of economic prosperity and progress in Venezuela. From 1980-84, as economic conditions deteriorated, almost a quarter of a million persons left Venezuela, including 129,834 foreigners and 107,321 Venezuelans. About 2000 persons from Chile, Argentina, and Uruguay left Venezuela in the 5-year period. To determine whether the reemergence of democracy in Argentina and Uruguay in the 1980s had prompted the return of migrants from these countries, the subpopulation returning with the aid of 2 international organizations was studied. The records were examined of all individuals returning to the 3 countries between January 1983-June 1986 with the assistance of the Intergovernmental Committee for Migration or the UN High Commission for Refugees. 462 women and 395 men were repatriated during the study period. 46.4% of those repatriated were 20-49 years old and 39.7% were under 20. About 60% of the Uruguayans but only about 25% of the Argentinians and Chileans were assisted by the UN High Commission for Refugees. The crude activity rate was 52.2% for repatriated men and 34.2% for repatriated women. Activity rates were 58.4% for Uruguayans, 48.7% for Argentinians, and 48.0% for Chileans. The repatriation was highly selective; 79.5% of Chileans, 74.3% of Argentinians, and 67.4% of Uruguayans declared themselves to be professionals, technicians, or related workers. Of the 857 persons repatriated from Venezuela, 550 went to Argentina, 196 to Uruguay, and 107 to Chile. An additional 4 Chileans went to Sweden. The Argentinian colony in Venezuela has shrunk and will probably continue to do so, the Chilean colony has not declined and may actually grow because of economic and political conditions in Chile, and the Uruguayan colony has hardly declined, suggesting that immigration is continuing.
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  14. 14

    Ageing populations. The social policy implications.

    Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development [OECD]

    Paris, France, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development [OECD], 1988. 90 p. (Demographic Change and Public Policy)

    This is the first in a planned series of volumes published by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) concerning the economic and social consequences of demographic aging in OECD member countries. "This detailed statistical analysis of demographic trends in the 24 OECD countries examines the implications for public expenditure on education, health care, pensions and other social areas, and discusses the policy choices facing governments." Data are from official sources. (EXCERPT)
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  15. 15

    World population policies, volume 1: Afghanistan to France.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs

    New York, New York, United Nations, 1987. vi, 247 p. (Population Studies, No. 102; ST/ESA/SER.A/102)

    WORLD POPULATION POLICIES presents, in 3 volumes, current information on the population policies of the 170 members states of the UN and non-member states. This set of reports in based on the continuous monitoring of population policies by the Population Division of the Department of International Economic and Social Affairs of the UN Secretariat. It replaces POPULATION POLICY BRIEFS: CURRENT SITUATION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, POPULATION POLICY BRIEFS: CURRENT SITUATION IN DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, and POPULATION POLICY COMPENDIUM. Except where noted, the demographic estimates and projections cited in this report are based on the 10th round of global demographic assessments undertaken by the Population Division. Country reports are grouped alphabetically; Volume I contains Afghanistan to France. Each country's entry includes demographic indicators detailing population size, a structure, and growth; mortality and morbidity; fertility, nuptiality, and family; international migration; and spatial distribution and urbanization. Current perceptions of these demographic indicators are included, along with the country's general policy framework, institutional framework, and policies and measures. A brief glossary of terms and list of countries replying to the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th inquiries are appended.
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  16. 16

    Inventory of population projects in developing countries around the world, 1985/86.

    United Nations Fund for Population Activities [UNFPA]

    New York, New York, United Nations Fund for Population Activities, 1987. xi, 826 p. (Population Programmes and Projects, Volume 2.)

    This inventory of population projects in developing countries shows, at a glance, by country, internationally assisted projects funded, inaugurated, or being carried out by multilateral, bilateral, and other agencies and organizations during the reporting period (January 1985 to June 1986). Demographic estimates such as population by sex and by age group, age indicators, urban-rural population, and population density refer to the year end 1985; other estimates such as average annual change, rate of annual change, fertility, and mortality are 5-year averages for 1985-1990. The dollar value of projects or total country programs is given where figures are available. Chapter I provides information on country programs, and Chapter II deals with regional, interregional, and global programs. Chapter III lists sources, including published sources of information and and addresses for additional information and for keeping up-to-date on population activities. Each country profile includes a statement by Head of State of Government on their government's views regarding population, and views of the government on other population matters.
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  17. 17

    [Recommendations of the Population World Plan of Action and of the United Nations Expert Group on Population Distribution, Migration and Development] Recomendaciones del Plan de Accion Mundial sobre Poblacion y del Grupo de Expertos de la Organizacion de las Naciones Unidas sobre Distribucion de la Poblacion, Migracion y Desarrollo.

    De Oliveira O

    In: Reunion Nacional sobre Distribucion de la Poblacion, Migracion y Desarrollo, Guadalajara, Jalisco, 11 de mayo de 1984, [compiled by] Mexico. Consejo Nacional de Poblacion [CONAPO]. Mexico City, Mexico, CONAPO, 1984. 21-31.

    Highlights are presented of the expert meeting on population distribution, migration, and development held in Hammamet, Tunisia, in March 1983 to prepare for the 1984 World Population Conference. Rafael Salas, Secretary General of the World Population Conference, indicated in the inaugural address of the meeting that changes in the past 10 years including the increasing importance of short-term movements, illegal migrations, and refugees would require international agreements for their resolution. In the area of internal migrations, Salas suggested that in addition to migration to metropolitan areas which continues to predominate, short-term movements of various kinds need to be considered in policy. Improvement in the quality of life of the urban poor is an urgent need. Leon Tabah, Adjunct Secretary General of the World Population Conference, pointed out that population distribution and migration had received insufficient attention in the 1975 World Population Conference, and that the World Population Plan of Action should be modified accordingly. Among the most important findings of the meeting were: 1) The Plan of Action overstressed the negative effects of urbanization and rural migration. Available evidence suggests that migration and urbanization are effects rather than causes of a larger process of unequal regional and sectorial development 2) The historical context of each country should be considered in research and planning regarding population movements. 3) Analyses of the determinants and consequences of migration were reexamined in light of their relationship to the processes of employment, capital accumulation, land tenure, technological change, ethnic and educational aspects, and family dynamics. 4) The need to consider interrelationships between urban rural areas in formulation of policy affecting population distribution was emphasized. 5) National development strategies and macroeconomic and sectoral policies usually have stronger spatial effects than measures specifically designed to influence population distribution, and should be examined to ensure compatability of goals. 6) Population distribution policies should not be viewed as ends in themselves but as measures to achieve larger goals such as reducing socioeconomic inequalities. 7) Multiple levels of analysis should be utilized for understanding the causes and consequences of population movements. 8) Programs of assistance should be organized for migrants and their families. 9) The human and labor rights of migrants and nonmigrants should be considered in policy formulation. 10) Policies designed to improve living and working conditions of women are urgently needed.
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  18. 18


    Sadik N

    [Unpublished] 1986. Presented at the All-Africa Parliamentary Conference on Population and Development, Harare, Zimbabwe, May 12-16, 1986. 7 p.

    The Second African Conference on Population and Development, held early in 1984, marked a decisive stage in African thinking about population. During the 12 years between the 1972 and 1984 conferences, African nations learned in detail about their demographic situation and confronted the ever-increasing costs of development and their lack of physical and administrative infrastructure. In the midst of these and other concerns came the drought, which for over a decade in some parts of the continent has reduced rainfall, dried up rivers, lakes, and wells, and forced millions into flight. It is in this context that population became an African issue. African countries on the whole are not densely populated nor do they yet have very large concentrations in cities. Yet, population emerges as more than a matter of numbers, and there are features which give governments cause for concern. First, the population of most African countries, and of the continent as a whole, is growing rapidly and could double itself in under 25 years. Second, mortality among mothers and children is very high. Third, life expectancy generally is lower in African than in other developing countries. Fourth, urbanization is sufficiently rapid to put more than half of Africa in cities by 2020 and 1/3 of the urban population in giant cities of over 4 million people. The 1984 conference recognized these and other uncomfortable facts and their implications for the future, and agreed that attention to population was an essential part of African development strategy. Strategy is considered in terms of the 4 issues mentioned. First, high rates of growth are not in themselves a problem, but they mean a very high proportion of dependent children in the population. About 45% of Africa's population is under age 14 and will remain at this level until the early years of the 21st century. Meeting the needs of so many children and young adults taxes the ability of every African nation, regardless of how rapidly its economy may expand. Understanding this, a growing number of African leaders call for slower growth in order to achieve a balance in the future between population and the resources available for development. Reducing mortality requires innovation. Among the new approaches to health care are the use of traditional medicine and practitioners in conjunction with modern science and the mobilization of community groups for preventive care and self-help. Health care and better nutrition also are keys to improvement in life expectancy and call for ingenuity and innovation on the part of African governments and communities. Part of the solution to the impending urban crisis must be attention to the viability of the rural sector. The role of the UN Fund for Population Activities in addressing the identified issues is reviewed.
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  19. 19

    China: long-term development issues and options. The report of a mission sent to China by the World Bank.

    Lim E; Wood A; Porter I; Taylor RP; Byrd W; Tidrick G; King T; Tims W; Pohl G

    Baltimore, Maryland, Johns Hopkins University Press, 1985. xiii, 183 p. (World Bank Country Economic Report)

    This report summarizes the conclusions of a World Bank study undertaken in 1984 to identify the key development issues China is expected to face in the next 20 years. Among the areas addressed by chapters in this monograph are agricultural prospects, energy development, spatial issues, international economic strategy, managing industrial technology, human development, mobilizing financial resources, and development management. China's economic prospects are viewed as dependinding upon success in mobilizing and effectively using all available resources, especially people. This in turn will depend on sucess in reforming the system of economic management, including progress in 3 areas: 1) greater use of market regulation to stimulate innovation and efficiency; 2) stronger planning, combining indirect with direct economic control; and 3) modification and extension of social institutions and policies to maintain the fairness in distribution that is basic to socialism in the face of the greater inequality and instability that may result from market regulation and indirect controls. Over the next 2 decades, China can be expected to become a middle-income country. The government has set the goal of quadrupling the gross value of industrial and agricultural output between 1980 and 2000 and increasing per capita income from US$300 to $800. China's size and past emphasis on local self-sufficiency offer opportunities for enormous economic gains through increased specialization and trade among localities. Increased rural-urban migration seems probable and desirable, although an increase in urban services and infrastructure will be required. The expected slow rate of population increase is an important foundation for China's favorable economic growth prospects. On the other hand, it may not be desirable to hold fertility below the replacement level for very long, given the effects this would have on the population's age structure. The increase in the proportion of elderly people will be a serious social issue in the next century, and reforms of the social security system need to be considered.
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  20. 20

    The state of world population 1986.

    Salas RM

    POPULI. 1986; 13(1):5-14.

    Within the next 50 years, the predominantly rural character of developing countries will shift as a result of rapid world urbanization. In 1970 the total urban population of the more developed world regions was almost 30 million more than in the less developed regions; however, by the year 2000 the urban population of developing countries will be close to double that in developed countries. A growing proportion of the urban population will be concentrated in the biggest cities. At the same time, the rural population in developing countries is expected to increase as well, making it difficult to reduce the flow of migrants to urban centers. Although urban fertility in developing countries tends to be lower than rural fertility, it is still at least twice as high as in developed countries. The benefits of urbanization tend to be distributed unevenly on the basis of social class, resulting in a pattern of skewed income and standard of living. Social conditions in squatter settlments and urban slums are a threat to physical and mental health, and the educational system has not been able to keep up with the growth of the school-aged population in urban areas. The problems posed by urbanization should be viewed as challenges to social structures and scientific technologies to adapt with concern for human values. It is suggested than 4 premises about the urbanization process should guide urban planners: 1) urban life is essential to the social nature of the modern world; 2) urban and rural populations should not be conceptualized in terms of diametrically opposed interest groups; 3) national policies will have an impact on urban areas, just as developments in the cities will impact on national development; and 4) the great cities of the world interact with each other, exchanging both trade and populations. The United Nations Family Planning Association stresses the need for 3 fundamental objectives: economic efficiency, social equity, and population balance.
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  21. 21

    [National Conference on Population Distribution, Migration and Development, Guadalajara, Jalisco, May 11, 1984] Reunion Nacional sobre Distribucion de la Poblacion, Migracion y Desarrollo, Guadalajara, Jalisco, 11 de mayo de 1984.

    Mexico. Consejo Nacional de Poblacion [CONAPO]

    Mexico City, Mexico, CONAPO, 1984. 107 p.

    Proceedings of a national conference on population distribution, migration, and development held in Guadalajara, Mexico, in May 1984 in preparation for the 1984 World Population Conference are presented. 2 opening addresses explain the objectives and relevance of the national conference, while the 1st conference paper outlines the recommendations of the World Population Plan of Action and of an expert meeting sponsored by the UN in Tunisia in 1983 on the topic of population distribution, migration, and development. The main conference papers discuss recent evolution of population distribution in Mexico; migration, labor markets, and development, including migratory flows and the economic structure of Mexico, recommendations of the World Population Conference of 1974, the migration policy of the Mexican National Development Plan, and the National Employment Service as an instrument of migration policy; and reflections on the World Population Conference, the Mexican government, and the design of an international migration policy, including commentarty on the recommendations of the expert committee on international migration convened in preparation for the World Population Conference, and comments on problems in design of migration policy. The main recommendations of the conference were 1) the principles of the World Population Plan of Action, particularly in regard to respect for fundamental human rights, be reaffirmed; 2) policies designed to influence population movement directly be supplemented by and coordinated with other social and economic policies likely to produce the same effect; 3) coordination among all sectors be improved to ensure effective implementation of policy goals; 4) efforts be undertaken to provide more detailed information on internal migratory movements; 5) laws governing migration and population distribution in Mexico be carefully analyzed and possibly modified; and 6) a clear and realistic international migration policy be formulated which would take into account the need for more detailed data on international migration, a clear definition of policy objectives in international migration, respect of basic human rights, and coherence between external and internal international migration policies.
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  22. 22

    Population growth and policies in sub-Saharan Africa.

    World Bank

    Washington, D.C., World Bank, 1986 Aug. x, 102 p.

    This report provides a comprehensive assessment of the magnitude and underlying causes of Africa's rapid population growth and suggests a framework to help African leaders design policies to address this problem. The report has 3 themes. The 1st theme is that rapid population growth in Africa is slowing economic development and reducing the possibility of raising living standards. Africa's population growth rate, the highest in the world, has accelerated from an average of 2.8%/year in 1970-82 to 3.1%/year in 1985. Population growth is expected to continue to rise for at least another 5-10 years. In addition to undermining economic growth and per capita income growth, the population explosion implies higher child and maternal morbidity and mortality, further degradation of the natural environment, constraints on expanding education and health care services, and falling wages. A comprehensive population policy in African countries must include efforts both to slow this growth and to cope with its consequences. A 2nd theme is one of cautious hope arising from recent indications of a change in ideas and behavior regarding fertility. More and more African governments are expressing alarm about population growth and are supporting family planning measures. Improvements in women's status, especially in female education, are occurring and can be expected to have a fertility reducing effect. Increased availability and accessibility of family planning services could raise Africa's contraceptive prevalence rate from its current level of 3-4% to 25% in the next decade. The 3rd theme is that strategic reorientation of the direction and nature of government involvement in the area of population policy is required. Although governments should not seek to be the only provider of family planning services, they must take the lead in generating a climate of legitimacy for family planning. An increase in external assistance will be necessary if family planning is to become a realistic option for Africans.
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  23. 23

    What role for the UN in population?

    Macura M

    European Journal of Population. 1986 May; 2(1):1-4.

    This article discusses likely population processes in the decades ahead and the role that the United Nations (UN) can play in the field of population. By the year 2000, the demographic situation in the world will be even more complex and diverse. Absolute increases in world population will be significantly larger in the 1985-2000 period than in 1950-85 and serious economic, ecologic, and social problems arising from massive population growth will make development more difficult to plan. Prospects for social and economic development are poor in developing countries as a result of a failure to make broad institutional reforms. Without such development, spontaneous change in birth, death, and migration trends is unlikely. Unemployment and deteriorating standards of living, starvation, ignorance, and moral confusion do not provide a backdrop conducive to sound demographic behavior. Societal intervention at subnational, national, and international levels is needed to reduce diversity and equalize conditions for demographic change. The UN can play a crucial role in this process for 4 reasons: 1) its vision of independent nations, universal human rights, tolerance and peace, and economic and social advancement for all peoples; 2) its emphasis on peaceful coexistence, equal rights of nations, and constructive collaboration; 3) its promotion of a variety of strategies of economic, social, and humanitarian nature; and 4) its grounding in the decisions made by Member States themselves. In the decades ahead, it is crucial that this potential be used to conduct systematic research on the determinants and implications of population change, to refine population policies, to train professional staff, and to promote action aimed at conditioning behavior toward well-defined goals.
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  24. 24

    Inventory of population projects in developing countries around the world, 1984/85.

    United Nations Fund for Population Activities [UNFPA]

    New York, New York, United Nations Fund for Population Activities, 1986. x, 787 p. (Population Programmes and Projects, Volume 1.)

    This inventory of population projects in developing countries shows, at a glance, by country, internationally assisted projects funded, inaugurated, or being carried out by multilateral, bilateral, and other agencies and organizations during the reporting period (January 1984 to June 1985). Demographic estimates such as population by sex and by age group, age indicators, urban-rural population, and population density refer to 1985; other estimates such as average annual change, rate of annual change, fertility, and mortality are 5-year averages for 1980-1985. The dollar value of projects or total country programs is given where figures are available. Chapter I provides information on country programs, and Chapter II deals with regional, interregional and global programs. Chapter III lists sources, including published sources of information and addresses for additional information and for keeping up-to-date on population activities. Each country profile includes a statement by Head of State or Head of Government on thier government's views regarding population, and views of the government on other population matters.
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  25. 25

    [Papers presented at the First Study Director's Meeting on Comparative Study on Demographic-Economic Interrelationship for Selected ESCAP Countries, 29 October-2 November 1984, Bangkok, Thailand]

    United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP]

    [Unpublished, 1984]. [82] p.

    This study group report 1) investigates quantitatively the process of population change and socioeconomic development to identify policy recommendations for Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand and 2) examines the application of the "systems approach" and econometric technics for population and development planning. These country-specific studies will help to clarify the interrelationships between demographic and socioeconomic factors in the development process of each participating country and the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) region in general. The meeting 1) reviewed major demographic and economic issues in each participating country, 2) reviewed extant work on model building in each country, and 3) outlined a preliminary system design. Several economic-demographic models are discussed. The participants recommended that 1) the models focus of similar issues such as migration and income distribution and 2) countries should adopt, whenever possible, a similar modeling methodology. Participants agreed that models should be based, where possible, on a base-year Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). This poses no problems in Thailand or Malaysia as SAMs are already available for these countries. However, no SAM is currently available for the Philippines. Participants further recommended that the 3 models could be improved by greater collaboration among study directors during model formulation and estimation. Participants also expressed concern about the size of the computing budget and thought that models could be improved by an increased budget for computer time.
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