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New York, New York, United Nations, 1992. viii, 400 p. (ST/ESA/SER.A/128)Available child mortality data are provided since the 1960s for 82 developing countries, arranged alphabetically, with a population of >1 million. The scope and methodology of the data, the main findings, a guide to the notation and layout of the database, and country specific profiles are included. Available data are included from many different sources without adjustment; graphs are provided. There is a brief discussion of the nature of child mortality and the methods used to measure it such as the crude death rate, age specific death rates, the infant mortality rate, <5 mortality, mortality 1-5 years, and model life tables for age specific child mortality. There is also discussion of the various data sources and estimation methods: vital registration data, prospective surveys, household surveys, prospective sample surveys, surveillance systems, retrospective questions in censuses and surveys, questions on recent household deaths by age, Brass method questions to whom on aggregate number of children born or dead, questions on women's most recent birth and survival, and maternity histories. Commentary is provided on the common index approach and the intersurvey change approach to evaluation of child mortality estimates. There is not 1 best method for measuring mortality. Countries with the most complete reporting of vital registration data are Hong Kong, Israel, Mauritius, Puerto Rico, and Singapore. Countries with incomplete data which does not provide a good measure of child mortality are Egypt, El Salvador, Guatemala, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago. Brass estimates which agree with vital registration data include the following countries: Costa Rica, Cuba, Kuwait, and Peninsular Malaysia. Indirect estimates which confirm vital registration data pertain to Chile and Uruguay. Brass questions provide satisfactory results in Costa Rica, Cuba, Egypt, El Salvador, Guatemala, Jamaica, Sri Lanka, and Trinidad and Tobago. Underestimates are expected for Argentina and Egypt. Indirect methods applied to census data provide good estimates for 23 countries, indirect methods applied to survey data yields good estimates for 21 countries, and direct calculations from maternity histories provide good estimates for 20 countries. 17 countries have poor results from maternity histories alone. Child mortality may have fallen by >50% in developing countries between 1960-85.
In: International Population Conference / Congres International de la Population, Montreal 1993, 24 August - 1st September. Volume 3, [compiled by] International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP]. Liege, Belgium, IUSSP, 1993. 269-78.Modeling life table functions by statistical methods, begun at the Population Branch of the UN in the early 1950s, resulted in the publication of a set of model life tables. From 158 life tables for various countries and periods, the UN analysts noted that the probability of dying in a certain age interval provides excellent approximation when the parameters defining the polynomial are obtained by the method of least squares. Factor analysis of probabilities of dying from a set of 154 abridged life tables was found to produce 5 factors in an earlier study by Ledermann and Breas. In this study of 120 life tables each for males and females, a principal component analysis produced only 2 factors with eigenvalues greater than 1. Together these 2 factors explained 97 and 98%, respectively, of the male and the female variance. The 1st factor loadings were found to be inversely related to age, while the opposite was the case with the 2nd set. They could reproduce life expectancy with a high degree of accuracy, the squared multiple correlations being .98 for male and .97 for female life tables. In conjunction with suitable pairs of factor scores, model life tables can be constructed. The method is also suitable for the determination of factor scores of any life table which are indicators of the states of mortality at younger and older ages. Combinations of these factor scores can also generate sets of life tables with identical life expectancies. In replicating the analysis of Ledermann and Breas with these data, 4 factors with a 5th bordering on significance together explained only 91% of the variance compared with the 97% and 98% found by the current study. The 2 dimensions of life tables represented by the 2 factors provide an interesting comparison with their counterparts, namely region and life expectancy. A comparison of this model with the Brass relational logit model revealed it was similar to a special case of this model derived by retaining only the 1st factor. The 2-factor model should produce better results.
New York, New York, United Nations, 1990. xiii, 420 p. (ST/ESA/SER.R/98)2 groups expressed a need for this 2nd edition volume of stable population age distributions. Easily accessible information on the effect of demographic changes upon age distributions and dependency burdens is needed by planners of developing countries, while demographers are interested in construction demographic parameters under conditions of deficient data. A set of model stable age distributions, a series of intrinsic growth rates from 0-4%, intrinsic birth and death rates, percentages of populations in the 15-59 age groups, and child, elderly, and total dependency rates are therefore presented in this volume for the Latin American, Chilean, South Asian, Far East Asian, and General patterns of mortality. The Latin American pattern exhibits high mortality in the infant, childhood, and young adult years, with lower levels in the older ages. The Chilean pattern is one of extremely high infant mortality relative to general childhood mortality, while the South Asian pattern shows extremely high mortality under age 15 and over age 55. Low mortality is evidenced in the prime ages. The Far Eastern pattern exhibits relatively low mortality at younger ages, with high death rates at older ages. The General pattern is an average of these 4. Rates are defined, then calculated in an improved manner. UN model life table characteristics are also discussed and presented in an easier-to-read format. 420 pages of tables constitute the bulk of the volume.
[Some problems in the use of the new U.N. model life tables] Quelques problemes d'utilisation des nouvelles tables-types de mortalite des Nations-Unies.
GENUS. 1989 Jul-Dec; 45(3-4):125-41.After a brief introduction to new United Nations model life tables for developing countries, we have proceeded to point out some blanks contained in them....[A theoretical] approach has allowed us to demonstrate the inadequacy of some fundamental assumptions on which the methods used are based. [An empirical approach] has enabled us to point out some of the problems that may be encountered when using the tables. (SUMMARY IN ENG AND ITA) (EXCERPT)
POPULATION STUDIES. 1989 Jul; 43(2):211-41.The authors study three main areas in recent mortality trends in the USSR using demographic data recently published in the Soviet Union. "The first is infant mortality, a subject of considerable controversy among Western scholars. The new data make it possible to undertake a synthesis of this debate and understand the phenomenon more clearly. Secondly, long and short-term trends in mortality can be illuminated as a result of the publication of a series of life expectancies at birth that cover almost the whole of the post-war period and of two complete life tables. Finally, a table of causes of death conforming to the recommendations by WHO has been published. This table which contains most interesting results is studied in detail and the figures are compared with those for other European countries." (EXCERPT)
MortPak--the United Nations software package for mortality measurement: batch-oriented software for the mainframe computer.
New York, New York, United Nations Department of International Economic and Social Affairs, 1988. vii, 264 p. (ST/ESA/SER.R/78)This volume presents a set of 16 computer programs and the working manual for MORTPAK, a software package designed for demographic measurement in developing countries. MORTPAK includes 16 applications in the areas of life-table and stable-population construction, graduation of mortality data, indirect mortality estimation, indirect fertility estimation, and other indirect procedures for evaluating age distribution and the completeness of censuses. The package incorporates developed techniques that take advantage of the UN model life tables and generalized stable-population equations. This document is 1 of 2 produced by the UN providing such software. The package as presented here as been constructed for batch-type input data. This input approach is usual for mainframe computer work environments. Nevertheless, these programs are easily downloaded onto microcomputers and will generally run without problems.
RENKOU YANJIU. 1985 Mar 29; (2):31-5.A comparative study and detailed analysis of various standard model life tables are presented. After examining the development of various methods by which demographic factors and weighting techniques are applied, the reasons for the existence of vast discrepancies among the model life tables for various world regions are discussed. It is argued that the 1955 UN model life tables and others developed in Europe and in the United States theoretically apply to Western populations, thus the so-called Chilean, Far East, Southern Asia, and Latin American models, all of which are extensions of Western models, are not totally applicable. Nonetheless, it is concluded that the UN's model population tables 90, 95, and 100 (published in 1955) closely approximate China's 1982 census statistics for life expectancy.
In: United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population projections: methodology of the United Nations. New York, N.Y., United Nations, 1984. 60-6. (Population Studies, No. 83; ST/ESA/SER.A/83)This paper offers suggestions for guiding the next projection's exercise at the United Nations in light of third world life tables which, although severely limited, are believed to be relatively reliable. Of prime importance is the suggestion that expectation of life at birth in a number of less developed areas has begun to overtake and surpass the lower levels of such measures among the populations of developed countries. Although this is the 1st such occurrence on record, it is not likely to be reversed. A major implication of these patterns is that the causal linkages which have historically connected levels and patterns of socioeconomic development with those of mortality have become greatly attenuated. It is safe to say that major new causal mechanisms for reducing mortality have come into play which demographers have yet to comprehend adequately for purposes of projection. Another suggestion is to increase attention to the specific status and performance of national public-sector health programs (including water supply and sanitation) key factors affecting the onset and scale of mortality downtrends during the postwar decades. In addition, increasingly close attention needs to be paid to political disturbances, affecting health-care programs financing and associated delivery systems. With few exceptions, differences between female and male life expectancies at birth have been rising in the sample areas under review, implying that the gains over time for females have been higher than those for males. This directional pattern at both ages is remarkably similar to what has been found to hold with notable consistency among developed countries since 1920. Its prevalence suggests a bench-mark for checing the projected longevity differentials between males and females in the next UN exercise; at a minimum, these should be compared with past directions and magnitudes of change. Added or new attention should be given to comparisons between developed country and less developed country mortality measures; to how such measures vary by age at given points of time and shift by age over time; to sex differentials of both mortality levels and changes; and to the rapidly growing stocks of information becoming available on leading correlates of deaths, survival and morbidity rates. Such attention will enhance the quality, relevance and reliability of the future work of the UN on population projections.
Population Bulletin of the United Nations. 1982; (14):54-65.Previous systems of model life tables were based on empirical data from the now developed countries (the Coale and Demeny models) or, when patterns from less developed countries were included (the original UN set and the Lederman set), included data of poor or unknown quality. However, with the advent of new demographic techniques of data evaluation and of improved survey, census, and vital registration systems, it has become possible to construct a new model life table system based on reliable data from less developed countries and hence more applicable to demographic analysis within that milieu. The new UN model life tables are based on carefully evaluated age-sex specific mortality data found in developing countries. Analysis of these data indicated 4 major age patterns of mortality. These patterns have been labelled the Latin American pattern, the Chilean pattern, the South Asian pattern, and the Far Eastern pattern, according to the geographical region predominant in each pattern. An overall average pattern, labelled the general pattern, has also been constructed. Along with the model life tables themselves, the UN is also producing models of sex differences in life expectancy, single-year mortality, and stable populations. A manual of computer programs to facilitate use of these models is also being prepared. (author's)