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Population Studies. 1958 Nov; 12(2):164-169.To meet the need for estimates of mortality in countries with inadequate statistics, the Population Branch of the United Nations Department of Social Affairs has proposed a scheme for estimating model life tables. For each of 40 different levels of infant mortality, the U.N scheme provides estimates of mortality rates at all other ages, as well as of the corresponding expectation of life at birth. For other levels of infant mortality interpolation between the two adjacent given estimates may be used. These model life tables were obtained in terms of mortality rates for both sexes combined, and additional methods are suggested for obtaining the rates for each sex separately. The present paper deals only with the scheme for both sexes combined. The U.N. scheme was based on an analysis of 158 life tables for various countries and periods (some of the tables were incomplete so our final analyses include only 150 observations). The data used were: infant mortality rates--(-1)q(-0), mortality rates for ages one to four--(-4)q(-1) and quinquennial mortality rates—(-5)q(-x)(5)--for all other ages up to 85, as well as the expectation of life at birth--(0)e(-0). (excerpt)
Washington, D.C., World Bank, Population and Human Resources Dept., Population, Health, and Nutrition Division, 1989 Dec. , 30 p. (Policy, Planning and Research Working Papers, WPS 337)On the basis of an assumption of the persistence of current demographic trends, a model is presented for the projection of short-term (1-2 decades) and long-term (1-2 centuries) mortality rates. Essentially, the model refines calculations of male and female life expectancy and takes infant mortality into account in the selection of the appropriate life tables. The analysis of data from developed and developing countries suggests a short-term life expectancy of 82.5 years and a long-term life expectancy of 90 years for women; male life expectancy is 6.7 years lower. For short-term predictions, the rate of change in the preceding 5 years and the proportion of females enrolled in secondary school are most significant. In terms of infant mortality, the rate is expected to decline to 6/1000 in the short-term and 3/1000 in the long- term. A split life table approach is then used, in which the infant mortality rate determines the level to select for mortality at the younger ages and life expectancy is the basis for level selection at the older ages. Application of this projection approach to 8 countries-- Zaire, Bolivia, Ghana, Pakistan, Thailand, Poland, Costa Rica, and Norway--produced mortality estimates that were within 2 percentage points of existing estimates. Infant mortality projections show a greater deviation, with faster falls than suggested by current World Bank estimates. A rapid mortality decline assumption allows life expectancy to be up to 6% higher in 1985-2100, the crude death rate up to 30% lower, and the infant mortality rate up to 50% lower, resulting overall in a population 8% above that expected under conditions of a medium decline. A slow decline pattern allows life expectancy to be 10% lower, the crude death rate up to 50% higher, and the infant mortality rate up to 170% higher than under conditions of medium mortality declines and produces a 13% population decline.
RENKOU YANJIU. 1985 Mar 29; (2):31-5.A comparative study and detailed analysis of various standard model life tables are presented. After examining the development of various methods by which demographic factors and weighting techniques are applied, the reasons for the existence of vast discrepancies among the model life tables for various world regions are discussed. It is argued that the 1955 UN model life tables and others developed in Europe and in the United States theoretically apply to Western populations, thus the so-called Chilean, Far East, Southern Asia, and Latin American models, all of which are extensions of Western models, are not totally applicable. Nonetheless, it is concluded that the UN's model population tables 90, 95, and 100 (published in 1955) closely approximate China's 1982 census statistics for life expectancy.
Studies in Family Planning. 1986 May-Jun; 17(3):153-60.Data from a prospective child health study conducted in Gaza by the WHO was used to examine the relationship between infant feeding and subsequent fertility. The study group consisted of 769 women living in 2 refugee camps in Gaza who gave birth in a 2-month period in 1978, and their index children, followed up for 23 months with monthly visits. Women who became pregnant within the 23 months were followed up until the end of their pregnancy. Women who practiced contraception after the birth of the index child were excluded. Life table analyses demonstrate a strong relationship between breastfeeding and 2 components of birth intervals, the postpartum anovulatory period and the waiting time from the end of the anovulatory period to conception. Duration of breastfeeding in this population averaged 12 months. Once menses have resumed, main factors related to waiting time to conception are age, husbands education, and measures of breastfeeding intensity and duration. Women who are breastfeeding when menstruation resumes and continue to do so are less likely to conceive than other women.
[Unpublished] 1981. Paper presented at International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, Committee on Factors Affecting Mortality and the Length of Life, Seminar on Methodology and Data Collection in Mortality Studies, Dakar, Senegal, July 1981. Published in: Methodologies for the Collection and Analysis of Mortality Data. Proceedings of a Seminar in Dakar, Senegal, July 7-10, 1981, [edited by] Jacques Vallin, John H. Pollard and Larry Heligman. Liege, Belgium, Ordina, 1984. p. 179-201. 25 p. (UNFPA Project No. INT/76/P14; Entry No. 0451; INT76P140451)An explanation of a theoretical actuarial/demographic basis for the statistical model of the new UN model life tables introduces this paper. The new tables are based on observed age patterns of mortality for developing countries. Age-specific death rates were calculated and evaluated on a country by country basis, and 36 male life tables and 36 female life tables that were shown to be of high quality were chosen as the basis for construction of model life tables. The methodology of model life table construction followed by Coale and Demeny, the regression approach followed by Ledermann, and the principal components analysis approach are described, as is the variant of classical principal components analysis used to construct the tables. 4 major age patterns of mortality were found, which have been labelled the Latin American pattern, the Chilean pattern, the South Asian pattern, and the Far Eastern pattern. The 5th pattern, the general pattern, is constructed as an average of all the life tables in the refined data set, without considerations of cluster. The 1st principal component vector models the age patterns of mortality change, the 2nd models characteristic differences in mortality under age 5, and the 3rd affects mortality during the childbearing ages for females and at various ages for males. Other products of the UN model life table project are described.
In: United Nations. Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs. Proceedings of the World Population Conference, Belgrade, 30 August-10 September 1965. Vol. 3. Selected papers and summaries: projections, measurement of population trends. New York, UN, 1967. 263. (E/CONF.41/4)Notestein and others in "The future population of Europe and the Soviet Union" made the 1st systematic study of mortality data and presented models which would enable the projection of observed regularities. The UN demographers later prepared model life tables by considering all the mortality tables available. The reliability of the UN model life tables was critically appraised by Gabriel and Ronen. R.S. Kurup in his doctoral dissertation to the University of Chicago presented revised model life tables in 1964. In the revision of the model life tables, the various countries have been stratified according to socioeconomic and health conditions and the mortality trends have been analyzed. In the analysis, only the recent data have been considered. Model life tables have been constructed from whatever technically correct life tables that are available by linking 2 consecutive mortality rates with the previous rate and constructing the life table on the basis of the relations obtained. This has been done separately for males and females and for various strata. This revision has eliminated the defects of the UN system of model life tables. (Author's modified)