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Genus. 2005 Jul-Dec; 61(3-4):185-192.I was asked by the organizers of this international conference to discuss, in my presentation, the effects of ageing on competitiveness. I will start by arguing that the key economic issue involved by ageing is growth rather than competitiveness per se, as ageing may reduce the growth potential of nations. I will however point out that there is nothing unavoidable about this effect of ageing on growth. Reforming pensions and labour market institutions in order to better exploit returns from experience, it is possible to counteract the effects of a declining workforce on growth and sustain a relatively high rate of capital accumulation even under older societies. But there are strong political obstacles to these reforms. These political obstacles should be fully understood, it is still a matter of positive economics, and possibly counteracted (the domain of normative economics). (excerpt)
UN Chronicle. 1998 Winter; 35(4): p..According to the 1998 revised estimates and projections of the United Nations, the world population currently stands at 5.9 billion persons and is growing at 1.33 per cent per year, an annual net addition of about 78 million people. World population in the mid-twenty-first century is expected to be in the range of 7.3 to 10.7 billion, with a figure of 8.9 billion by the year 2050 considered to be most likely. Global population growth is slowing, thanks to successful family planning programmes. But because of past high fertility, the world population will continue to grow by over 80 million a year for at least the next decade. In mid-1999, the total will pass 6 billion-twice what it was in 1960. More young people than ever are entering their childbearing years. At the same time, the number and proportion of people over 65 are increasing at an unprecedented rate. The rapid growth of these young and old new generations is challenging societies' ability to provide education and health care for the young, and social, medical and financial support for the elderly. (excerpt)
Pretoria, South Africa, Dept. of National Health and Population Development, Council for Population Development, 1991 Jun. 21 p.This booklet presents 1987 data on global population growth estimates and reiterates some of the main points of the Amsterdam Declaration adopted at the International Forum on Population in the 21st Century. These resolutions recognized mankind's responsibility to the future; acknowledged the link between population, resources, and the environment; expressed concern about rapid growth, especially in the developing world; recognized the central role of women in the development process; and defined the goal of development as improvement in the quality of life. The specter of unrelenting population growth is then considered from the point of view of South Africa, which has an annual growth rate of 2% and a population doubling time of 32 years. The booklet then describes South Africa's Population Development Programme, which was instituted in 1984 to maintain a balance between growth and subsistence resources. Each aspect of the program (education, primary health care, job creation, manpower development, the role of women, rural development, and housing) is then discussed in detail with important concepts defined and the ways in which organizations and individuals can contribute to the realization of the goals delineated.
National report on population and development of Malaysia. International Conference on Population and Development, September, 1994, Cairo.
[Kuala Lumpur], Malaysia, National Population and Family Development Board, Technical Working Group for ICPD, 1993. , 64 p.Malaysia considers its population policy an integral part of its overall social and economic policy planning. In order to achieve its goal of becoming an industrialized nation by the year 2020, Malaysia considers it imperative to create a quality population based around a strong family unit and a caring society. This report on population and development in Malaysia begins with a description of the demographic context in terms of past and current trends in population size, growth, and structure; fertility, mortality, and migration as well as the outlook for the future. The implementation of the population policy, planning, and program is described in the context of the following issues: longterm population growth, fertility interventions, women's labor force participation, aging, the family, internal and international migration, urbanization, and the environment. The evolution of the population policy is included as is its relationship with such other population-related policies as health, education, human resource development, regional development, and the eradication of poverty. Information is provided on the current status of the population policy and on the role of population issues in development planning. A profile of the national population program includes a discussion of maternal-child health services; family planning services and family development; information, education, and communication; data collection and analysis, the relationship of women to population and development; mortality; migration; the environment; human resources development, poverty alleviation; aging; and HIV/AIDS. The national action plan for the future is presented through a discussion of the emerging and priority concerns of population and family development and an outline of the policy framework. The summary reiterates Malaysia's efforts to integrate population factors into development planning and its commitment to promoting environmentally-sound and sustainable development. Appendices present data in tabular form on population and development indicators, population policies, incentives, and programs; program results; and the phase and area of implementation of the national population and family development programs.
[Unpublished] 1992. Presented at the International Conference on Population and Development [ICPD], 1994, Expert Group Meeting on Population and Women, Gaborone, Botswana, June 22-26, 1992. 17 p. (ESD/P/ICPD.1994/EG.III/15)Commentary on development policy and the interactions between women's work and fertility decline was directed to Item 8(a) of the provision agenda of the International Conference on Population and Development. The literature provided insight into the relationship between women's participation in the labor force and fertility since the 1960s. Current literature should focus on contextual understanding and the precise circumstances in which the relationship is strong. Women's work can occur under two opposing conditions: pressure to work to support a large family and pressure to limit children in order to work and eliminate the potential for role conflicts. Kasarda (1986) found that working women had smaller completed family sizes. But Standing (1978) reviewed the developing country literature and found a variety of relationships between work and fertility: positive, negative, or no relationship. Recent studies have advanced theories and methods of analysis to incorporate the use of the household unit, the concept of the status of women, and event history analysis. The choice of measures of labor force participation and fertility were found to affect results. Work history and not current work status was found to be strongly related to demographic behavior. The ideal method of analysis is event history. Kasarda also identified other important data that are not usually collected on commitment to work, motivation, involvement and sex role orientation. Fertility was frequently measured by fertility at the time of the survey instead of completed fertility, with potential spurious findings. Again event history analysis provided the means to examine right-censored events. Although research will bring to light a more complete understanding of the relationships between employment and fertility, the policy implications continue to have global, sectoral, and programmatic impacts. Global policy must improve gender inequalities through improving women's access to and control over social resources. 1) Institutional discrimination against women's right to own property and land must be eliminated. 2) Equality of opportunity in access to high-status jobs and equal pay for equal work must be ensured. 3) All women's work and activities must be valued, and women must receive the benefits of social policy actions. 4) Women must hold representation in power and decision making positions. Development planners must be sensitized to women's issues.
New Delhi, India, Department of Family Welfare, 1994. , 61 p.The country report prepared by India for the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development opens by noting that India's population has increased from 361.1 million in 1951 to 846.3 million in 1991. In describing the demographic context of this, the largest democracy in the world, information is given on the growth rate, the sex ratio, the age structure, marital status, demographic transition, internal migration, urbanization, the economically active population and the industrial structure, literacy and education, data collection and analysis, and the outlook for the future. The second section of the report discusses India's population policy, planning, and programmatic framework. Topics covered include the national perception of population issues, the evolution of the population policy, the national family welfare program (infrastructure and services; maternal and child health; information, education, and communication; and achievements), the relationship of women to population and development, the relationship of population issues and sectoral activities, the environment, adolescents and youth, and AIDS. The third section presents operational aspects of family welfare program implementation and covers political and national support, the implementation strategy, the new action plan, program achievements and constraints, monitoring and evaluation, and financial aspects. The national action plan for the future is the topic of the fourth chapter and is discussed in terms of emerging and priority concerns, the role and relevance of the World Population Plan of Action and other international instruments, international migration, science and technology, and economic stabilization, structural reforms, and international financial support. After a 24-point summary, demographic information is appended in 17 tables and charts.
In: Population, resources, environment and development. Proceedings of the Expert Group on Population, Resources, Environment and Development, Geneva, 25-29 April 1983, [compiled by] United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. New York, New York, United Nations, 1984. 383-402. (Population Studies No. 90; ST/ESA/SER.A/90; International Conference on Population, 1984)Following an exploration of the interrelationships between population, development, and international economic relations, this paper discusses the trade requirements of a growing population under the International Development Strategy. The discussion concludes with some reflections concerning the nature of the structural adjustments in the world economy necessary to create an international environment supportive of the development needs of the developing countries and conducive to a sustained growth of the world economy. Because of the close link between production and international economic relations, any change in the rate of growth of population has implications for trading patterns and the flow of capital. Population also directly affects the level of consumption and hence, import demand for consumer goods and for raw materials and the capital equipment necessary to produce goods for final consumption. Evidence exists in support of the view that the savings rate could be influenced by demographic trends. Also the role of changing age structure of the population should not be discounted. The experience of the fastest growing developing countries reflects the strong links between development, industrialization, and international trade. Their liberal trading policies and outward orientations have contributed significantly to their success. Given the projected population growth for developing countries of 2.6% in the 1980s and 2.3% in the 1990s, the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita growth target would be 4.4% in the 1980s and 4.7% in the 1990s. Achievement of the ambitious growth targets set by the International Development Strategy would only make a modest beginning towards narrowing the relative income gap between the developed and developing countries by 2000. Accelerating the growth of developing countries would require a faster accumulation of capital or an increase in the investment to GDP ratio from 26.7% in 1980 to 28.8% in 1990 and 27.6% in 2000. A table shows that the resulting external balance in the year 2000 would be 4.8% of the GDP of developing countries as a whole. The developed market economies will need to improve substantially their savings performance in order to make available financial resources needed by developing economies.
Fertility and the family: highlights of the issues in the context of the World Population Plan of Action.
In: United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division. Fertility and family. New York, New York, United Nations, 1984. 45-73. (International Conference on Popualtion, 1984; Statements)This paper uses as its organizing principle 5 major themes which run through the sections of the 1974 World Population Plan of Action (WPPA) devoted to fertility and the family. The purpose of this paper it to assure that their discussion is comprehensive and that it reviews all the major research and policy concerns with respect to fertility and the family that have played an important role in the general debate about these issues since 1974. Summerized here are the contributions included in this volumen, as each deals with at least 1 of these issues. The 1st major theme focuses on fertility response to modernization as a facet of the interrelationship between population and development. Discussed are aspects of modernization leading to fertility increases, in particular the reduced incidence and shorter duration of breastfeeding, and those leading to fertility decline, namely the decline in the value of children as a source of labor and old-age support. Freedom of choice, information and education are the principal approaches within which childbearing decision making is discussed. Women's reproductive and economic activity during their life cycle, and the relationship of family types and functions to fertility levels and change are equally addressed. Finally, demographic goals and policy alternatives with respect to fertility change are discussed in terms of a number of policy options: family planning programs, economic incentives and disincentives and more global socioeconomic measures. Although primary attention is given to the problems and policies of developing countries, the special problems of certrain developed countries which view their fertility as too low are also considered. The issues raised in this paper are put forward as an aid to assist in the identification of emderging areas of policy concern and of fruitful new research directions.
[National Conference on Population, Resources, Environment, and Development] Reunion Nacional sobre Poblacion, Recursos, Medio Ambiente y Desarrollo
Mexico City, Mexico, Mexico. Consejo Nacional de Poblacion [CONAPO], 1984. 120 p.Opening remarks, presentations, comments, and conclusions are presented from the Mexican National Conference on Population, Resources, Environment, and Development, the last of a series of conferences held in preparation for the 1984 World Population Conference. The 3 papers, each with a commentary, concerned questions regarding the balance between population, resources, the environment, and development to be addressed by the World Population Conference; population, resources, and environment; and population and development. A list of comments of participants and the closing remarks are also included. Several concluding statements summarized the main points of the debate: 1) Relationships between demographic variables and economic and social processes are highly complex and the World Population Conference should take such complexities into account. 2) Reproductive and migratory behavior of the population is just 1 element influencing and being influenced by social and economic development. The decreasing rate of population growth alone cannot lead to development. 3) The quest for a better balance between resource utilization and environmental conservation, with the resulting improvement in living standards, requires immediate and realistic measures on the part of the State and the participation of the people not merely as objects but also as active subjects through their community organizations. 4) The regional dimension must be included in the analysis of disequilibrium between population and development, at both national and international levels, in order to provide a better comprehension of phenomena such as migration, urbanization, production and distribution of food, environmental deterioration, ant the qualitative development of the population. 5) Better conceptual, analytical, informative, and planning instruments must be developed regarding the themes of population and development. In particular, instruments for the medium- and longterm should be developed, since the time frame of population processes exceeds the usual programming limits. 6) Questions suitable for a forum such as the World Population Conference must be distinguished from those relating to national population policy. Nevertheless, common principles exist, such as full respect for human rights, national sovereignty, and the fundamental objectives of population policy, which should be to contribute to elevating the level and quality of life of human beings.
Confronting the population problem, statement made at 1983 Editors' Seminar at the United Nations, sponsored by the United Nations Association of the United States of America, United Nations, New York, 19 September, 1983.
New York, N.Y., UNFPA, . 8 p. (Speech Series No. 98)Growth and distribution of population carry important implications for resources and the environment, as well as for development generally. A shortage of food supply, increased labor force, urbanization and migration all pose staggering problems for the world. Other issues to be considered are energy, housing needs, as well as the vast array of raw materials which modern civilizations require. The demands on natural resources and the environment made by industrial development, combined with changes in population size and distribution create an issue of vital importance to developed and developing countries alike. With the aim of recognizing and working towards solutions to these and other problems, an International Conference on Population has been called in Mexico City in 1984. The Conference is expected to result in proposals for action in the national and international communities to produce the conditions necessary for continued decline in population growth and management of the problems which gorwth has brought about. The specific issues to be discussed at the Conference are briefly outlined.