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In: Women and civil war. Impact, organizations, and action, edited by Krishna Kumar. Boulder, Colorado, Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2001. 57-67.After World War II, Joseph Broz (Tito) became the head of the new Federal Socialist Republic of Yugoslavia, which incorporated the six republics of Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bill). Bosnia was the third largest of the six republics in terms of both land mass and population. According to the 1991 census, Bosnia's population was 4.3 million, of whom 41 percent were identified as Muslim, 31.4 percent as Serb, 17.3 percent as Croat, and 7.6 percent as other. Despite ethnic identification in the census, all three populations mixed and mingled in urban and rural societies. Since World War II, 30 to 40 percent of marriages in urban areas were mixed. The shared history and culture of all three groups formed the basis of a distinct and unifying identity that "straddled ethnoreligious communities, but did not subsume these differences." When Tito died in 1980, the national unity he had struggled to create began to crumble. In March 1992, Bosnia held an independence referendum that was approved by a two-thirds majority. The Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina was recognized by the European Union on 6 April. On the same date, Bosnian Serb nationalists began the siege of Sarajevo, and the Bosnian war began. Bosnian Muslim and Croat forces originally fought a united defense against Bosnian Serb advances. However, relations broke down in 1993, engendering a "war within a war." The Bosnian Muslim/Croat conflict was eventually resolved in 1994 through international mediation, which resulted in the creation of the Bosniac-Croat Federation. The reunification of the forces enabled a stronger resistance. In 1995, the combined forces launched a dramatic offensive, forcing the Bosnian Serbs into a negotiating position. In November 1995, the factions met and reached agreement, and a month later, on 14 December 1995, they signed the General Framework Agreement, also referred to as the Dayton Accords, which brought a halt to the hostilities. The effect of the General Framework Agreement was to create one state, Bosnia and Herzegovina, consisting of two entities. The Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina consists of 51 percent of the territory and has a Bosniac and Croat majority among the population. The Republika Srpska (RS) has the remaining 49 percent of the territory, with a Bosnian Serb majority. (excerpt)
Washington, D.C., World Bank, 2001. vii, 32 p. (World Bank Policy Research Report)This conclusion presents an important challenge to us in the development community. What types of policies and strategies promote gender equality and foster more effective development? This report examines extensive evidence on the effects of institutional reforms, economic policies, and active policy measures to promote greater equality between women and men. The evidence sends a second important message: policymakers have a number of policy instruments to promote gender equality and development effectiveness. (excerpt)
[Crisis, economic policy reforms and employment in Yaounde] Crise, reformes des politiques economiques et emploi a Yaounde.
Paris, France, Centre Francais sur la Population et le Developpement [CEPED], 2001 Sep. 35 p. (Dossiers du CEPED No. 64)Cameroon has experienced economic recession since 1987, from which it is now only barely emerging. This paper examines the impact of the economic crisis and economic reforms implemented to improve the situation upon employment in Yaounde. Results are based upon the analysis of data drawn from a literature review of research upon the problem, conducted in Yaounde during November-December 1996, by CEPED and IFORD. The study explored labor market access, job losses, and unemployment. The economic crisis and subsequent corrective measures were found to have a disastrous impact upon employment in the city, restricting young people’s access to jobs, particularly in the public sector, and provoking numerous layoffs especially in the modern employment sector. The number of job layoffs increased throughout the implementation of stabilization and internal adjustment measures recommended by the World Bank and International Monetary Fund. These job losses and limited access to job markets increased unemployment levels among the city’s youth. Neither stabilization and adjustment measures, nor currency devaluation stimulated employment in Yaounde, a city in which available human resources are currently underutilized.
New York, New York, United Nations, 1995. xii, 243 p. (Asian Population Studies Series No. 138; ST/ESCAP/1572)This UN study presents a detailed analysis of rural-urban migration, based on results from the 1990-91 round of population censuses for Nepal, India, and Thailand. The Asia and Pacific region is urbanizing at a rapid pace. Urban growth in Nepal, India, and Thailand increased during the 1970s-1980s and declined during the 1980s-1990s. Rural-urban migration was lower during the 1980s in India and Thailand compared to the 1970s, but in Nepal the level of migration increased. There was no consistent pattern of urban concentration or deconcentration in India and Thailand, but Nepal's capital, Kathmandu, grew at a faster rate than the urban average. Some cities in India grew more rapidly during the 1980s, such as Greater Bombay, Hyderabad, Pune, Lucknow, Surat, Jaipur, and Kochi, with rates above 3.9%. Although Bangkok Metropolis declined from 61% to 58% in urban population, the five provinces bordering Bangkok grew by at least 4%. During the 1980s, Kathmandu and Pokara grew at a rate of 7.1% compared to the national average of 4.4%. Of the 7.3% of Indian total population who were migrants during 1976-81, 20% (50 million) were rural-urban migrants. Of the 8.0% (4.0 million) of Thai total population who were migrants in 1985-90, about 20% were rural-urban migrants. During 1990-91 there were 97,109 migrants among Nepal's total population (0.5%), of which 24% were rural-urban migrants. Each country prepared population projections to 2011. The proportion of female migrants increased in India. In all three countries, female migrants outnumbered male migrants for the most part. A wide variety of policy recommendations were suggested in each report. The main issue is whether decentralized industrial policies can reduce rural-urban migration. All studies needed improved data and research.
In: Labour force participation and development. 2nd ed., [by] Guy Standing. Geneva, Switzerland, International Labour Office, 1981. 165-206.The constraining influence of fertility and the associated demand for childcare time have often been considered to be the principal determinants of female labor force participation. International organizations, academics, and planners in low-income countries have therefore tended to enthusiastically support policies designed to accelerate the growth of female labor force in hopes of slowing the rate of population growth. While much research has been conducted on the topic, recent research casts doubts on the inverse relationship between female labor force participation and fertility. Some hold that the relationship, if it exists, depends upon the type of employment. This paper explores whether fertility constrains female labor force participation and if so, when and to what extent; whether female participation depresses fertility and if so, what type of participation is most likely to do so; and what is the nature of the relationship, if any. Sections consider the theoretical framework of fertility, participation, and the opportunity costs of time; evidence on empirical relationships in industrialized economies; the effect of empirical relationships on the influence of female participation on fertility in low-income countries; and evidence from low-income countries on fertility as a constraint on female labor force participation. Analysis uncovered mixed evidence from empirical analyzes which are often methodologically questionable and based on inadequate data. It was nonetheless concluded that the general demand for childcare time is less constraining on female participation in rural areas and where domestic employment predominates; and an inverse relationship is more likely in urban-industrial areas although it remains unclear whether or not the effect is greater for women with relatively low opportunity wages.
[Unpublished] 1991. Presented at the Demographic and Health Surveys World Conference, Washington, D.C., August 5-7, 1991. 22 p.A supply-demand approach is used to estimate total and unmet demand for family planning in Indonesia over the last decade. The 1976 Indonesia Fertility Survey, the 1983 Contraceptive Prevalence Survey, and the 1987 National Contraceptive Prevalence Survey form the database used in the study. Women under consideration have been married once, are aged 35-44, have husbands who are still alive, have had at least 2 live births, and had no births before marrying. High demand was found for family planning services, with the proportion of current users and women with unmet demand accounting for over 85% of the population. Marked improvement in contraceptive practice may be achieved by targeting programs to these 2 groups. Attention to unmotivated women is not of immediate concern. Women in need of these services are largely rural and uneducated. Programs will, therefore, require subsidization. The government should gradually and selectively further introduce self-sufficient family planning programs. User fees and private employer service provision to employees are program options to consider. Reducing the contraceptive use drop-out rate from its level of 47% is yet another approach to increase contraceptive prevalence in Indonesia. 33% drop out due to pregnancy, 26% from health problems, 10% because of method failure, 10% from inconveniences and access, and 21% from other causes. Improving service quality could dramatically reduce the degree of drop-outs.
International Family Planning Perspectives. 1991 Sep; 17(3):108-13.South Asia consisting of Bangladesh, India, Nepal Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, claims 1/5 to total world population with expected population growth of at least 200 million by the year 2000. Taking issue with assumptions behind World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN) population projections for the region, the authors make less optimistic assumptions of country fertility and mortality trends when running population projections for the region. Following discussion of methodological issues for and analysis of population projections, the paper's alternate assumptions and projection results are presented and discussed. Projections were made for each country of the region over the period 1985-2010, based on assumptions that only very modest fertility declines and improvements in life expectancy would develop over most of the 1990s. South Asian population would therefore grow from over 1 billion in 1985, to 1.4 billion by 2000, and almost 1.8 billion by 2010. Overall slower fertility decline than assumed for the UN and WB projections point to larger population growth with momentum for continued, larger growth through the 21st century. Rapid, substantial population growth as envisioned by these projections will impede movement toward an urban-industrial economy, with a burgeoning labor force exceeding the absorptive capacity of the modern sector. Job seekers will pile up in agriculture and the informal sector. Demands upon the government to deliver education and health services will also be extraordinarily high. High-tech niches will, however, continue expanding in India and Pakistan with overall negative social effects. Their low demand for labor will exacerbate income disparities, fuel interpersonal, interclass, and interregional tensions, and only contribute to eventual ethnic, communal, and political conflict. Immediate, coordinated policy is urged to achieve balanced low mortality and low fertility over the next few decades.
New York, New York, United Nations, 1991. x, 58 p. (ST/ESA/SER.R/113)With approximately 12% of its 1980 population over age 60, Argentina's elderly constitute a higher-than-average proportion of the total population when compared to other developing countries. Governments are increasingly assuming greater responsibility for the care and support of the elderly. Accordingly, this paper describes the social and economic aspects of population ageing in Argentina, with the aim of providing planners with a better understanding of the social and economic implications of these demographic changes. Better understanding should result in the development of appropriate plans and policies targeted to the elderly. While the ageing process in Argentina is comparatively advanced when compared to other developing countries, ageing presently proceeds at a slower pace when compared to past trends. Slow ageing is also projected into the future. The elderly, themselves, have been ageing, and tend to live to a greater extent in urban areas. Elderly women when compared to men are more likely to live alone and in urban settings. Despite a stagnating economy, social gains and improvements in living conditions for the elderly have been largely sustained. The working-age population grew more slowly, however, over recent decades than the total population. The number of retirement system beneficiaries also grew over the period, with retirement benefits reported as the leading sources of income among the elderly. The health care system remains strained by the country's present economic situation, with care failing to reach all of the elderly. Wide societal agreement exists that the family should be a major care provider. With more than 1/2 of all persons aged 65 and over living in extended or mixed households, the family plans an important care and support function.
In: Aspects of population change and development in some African and Asian countries. Cairo, Egypt, Cairo Demographic Centre, 1984. 43-56. (CDC Research Monograph Series no. 9)This paper examines the relationship between economic development and demographic change in the 13 states of the Economic Commission for West Asia (ECWA) region. Demographic variables considered include per capita income, proportion urban, proportion in urban areas with over 100,000 inhabitants, literacy among those over 15 years, and literacy among women. Unweighted rankings on these variables were added to produce a development ranking or general development index. Then this index was used to investigate the relationship between development and individual scores and rankings for various demographic indices. The development index exhibited a rough fit with the mortality indices, especially life expectancy at birth. Mortality decline appears to be most closely related to rise in income. At the same income level, countries that have experienced substantial social change tend to exhibit the lowest mortality, presumably because of a loosening in family role patterns. In contrast, the relationship between development and fertility measures seemed to be almost random. A far closer correlation was noted between the former and the general development index. It is concluded that economic development alone will not reduce fertility. Needed are 2 changes: 1) profound social change in the family and in women's status, achievable through increases in female education, and 2) government family planning programs to ensure access to contraception.