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MECHANISMS OF AGEING AND DEVELOPMENT. 1991 Jan; 57(1):25-48.Demographic data published by the UN in 1987 are analyzed in terms of the Gompertz function. Projections for maximum lifespans are obtained, with the data broadly divisible into 3 clusters. These are attributable not only to the influence of high infant mortality, but suggest constitutional and/or environmental variations among members of the clusters. The difference between lifespan and life expectancy is estimated analytically. A comparison with earlier analysis supports the view that there are important differences between the life expectancies of the sexes.
WORLD HEALTH FORUM. 1989; 10(3-4):417-9.Health is determined by a complex of factors. Health status depends on development. Prevention of disease is as important as cure. There are difficulties with integration of health care and development, but no all are scientific and technical. Integrated health action is often done in the form of pilot studies, but they are likely to fail. To air for health through development is an ethical and political necessity as well as an economic one. Health expenditure cannot be increased without limit. Health status is not determined solely by the development of public health services. Public health leaders should help with development planning activities. Priority should be given to preventive medicine, and rural populations. Multidisciplinary health workers should be trained. Research should be applied to the specific problems of African health. The concept of health care integrated with development is being promoted by the UN development Program (UNDP) associated with the World Health Organization (WHO). UNDP hopes to strengthen the links between its Regional Office for Africa and the WHO Regional Office for Africa. A WHO Liaison Officer at the local office of UNDP in Brazzaville has been established. The development of a broader strategy on the general health and development theme would involve health workers in programs. The health sector can no longer maintain its earlier performance, or even sustain past achievements. Primary health care programs should be adequately financed.
Assessing the impact of new contraceptive technologies on user satisfaction, use-dynamics, and service systems.
PROGRESS. 1989; (11):2-3.A summary of the recommendations stemming from conference on the Demographic and Programmatic Consequences of Contraceptive Innovations, sponsored by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences in 1988, is provided by the WHO. While typical research on introduction of new contraceptive methods concerns cohort studies of users' problems and perspectives, a larger view of use-dynamics, choice behavior and client satisfaction with overall care is lacking. It is popular to hypothesize that user satisfaction improves with numbers of contraceptive options, but the literature does not provide clear evidence on this point, and none at all on introduction of new methods. Three main issues should be addressed: what is the impact of a new method on client perception of overall care, on contraceptive behavior, and on operation of the family planning program. To get this information usually requires prohibitively costly, time-consuming research. Low cost approaches are available, however, taken from the type of large-scale, community-based repeat observation studies now used to monitor trials of pharmaceuticals for tropical diseases, and treatments of rare conditions, such as vitamin A. Statistical techniques have been developed to adjust for censoring bias. Another type of field research that can be adapted to this research is the epidemiological field research of the type used in the Matlab, Bangladesh cholera vaccine study, later utilized to study acceptance of family planning services. Without such studies, the social and programmatic rationale for introduction of new contraceptives will be open to debate.
New York, New York, United Nations 1984. 45 p. (Official Records, 1984, Supplement No. 2 E/1984/12 E./CN. 9/1984/9)The report of the 22nd session of the United Nations Population Commission includes the opening statements by the Under Secretary General for International Economic and Social Affairs, the Under Secretary General for Technical Cooperation for Development, the Director of the Population Division, and the Assistant Executive Director of the United Nations Fund for Population Activities. These are followed by a description of the actions taken by the United Nations to implement the recommendations of the World Population Conference, 1974. A report on the progress of ongoing work in the field of population summarized for the following categories: 1) world demographic analysis; 2) demographic projections; 3) population policies; 4) population and development; 5) monitoring of population trends and policies; 6) factors affecting patterns of reproduction; 7) dissemination of population information; 8) technical cooperation; and 9) demograpahic statistics. Programs of work in the field of population for the biennium 1984-1985 and medium-term plan for the period 1984-1989 are provided for each of the 9 preceding categories as well as a consideration of draft proposals and a report on the continuity of work. The report concludes with the organization, attendance, and agenda of the session.
In: Quantitative approaches to analyzing socioeconomic determinants of Third World fertility trends: reviews of the literature. Project final report: overview, by Indiana University Fertility Determinants Group, George J. Stolnitz, director. [Unpublished] 1984. 79-91.Simple no-work/work distinctions are an unreliable basis for estimating causal linkages connecting female employment/work-status patterns to fertility. World Fertility Survey (WFS) data show about 3/4, 1/2, and 1/4 child differentials for over 20, 10-19, and under 10 years marital duration grouss respectively, for women employed since marriage. Effects on marriage seem strongest in Latin America and weakest in Asia. Controlling for age, marital duration, urban-rural residence, education, and husband's work status. But from the results of a number of WFS and other studies, it seems relationships of work status and fertility are difficult to confirm beyond directional indications, even in Latin America. A UN study using proximate determinants such as contraception and work status including a housework category indicated differentials in contraceptive practice were not significant net of control for education. Philippine data indicates low-income employment might increase fertility by decreasing breastfeeding, while WFS data from 5 Asian countries indicated pre-marital work encourages increased marriage age, without being specific about effects. Also, female employment must affect a large population to have a real impact on aggregate fertility, since female labor force activity is likely to change slowly if at all. Data presently available do not cover micro-level factors that may be important, such as effects of work on breastfeeding, nor do they lend themselves to examination by multi-equation analysis. More work is needed to isolate effects of work-status attributes like male employment, and to analyze intra-cohort mid-course fertility objective changes, as well as new theoretical process models such as competing time use and maternal role incompatibility.
In: United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division. Fertility and family. New York, New York, United Nations, 1984. 107-23. (International Conference on Population, 1984; Statements)The Expert Group Meeting on Fertility and Family was assinged the identification of those areas in current scientific knowledge and concerns regarding fertility and family that were of greatest salience for policy formulation and implementation. Particular attention was to be paid to shifts that had occurred since the 1974 World Population Conference in Bucharest. This article is mainly an overview of the work of the Group and is organized around 3 main themes: 1) advances in knowledge of fertility levels and trends; 2) advances in understanding the relations between development, fertility and the family; 3)theoretical advances and practical experience with regard to policy formulation and implementation. 1) Knowledge of existing patterns of fertility and their composition has increased markedly over the last decade as a result of more data, better estimation techniques for measuring fertility levels and of new approaches to studying the reporductive process and family formation (e.g., the development of analytical models that allow quantification of the role of the various proximate determinants of fertility). A far-reaching realization is that proximate determinants of fertility may respond to the same set of factors but their responses may exhibit different elasticities. 2) In the understanding the relations between development, fertility and family, 2 main areas of concern can be identified. He level and type of analyses to date, especially the empirical ones, have been carried out at the micro-level, focusing on the individual decision maker. Although such models are advances over earlier ones developed largely from classical demographic transition theory, yet, their use has not been entirely satisfying because of the common failure to adequately specify the concepts involved and/or to substitute for them broad socioeconomic indicators in empirical work. In addition, institutional supports for and interrelations with particular patterns of fertility and family have been neglected, resulting, theoretical and practical impoverishment. The 2nd area of concern is the identification of those dimensions of family structure and function that are most intimately interlocked with modernization and fertility change. The discussion focuses on the interplay between modernization, the relationship between the generations, and between the sexes. Finally, there is an increasing awareness that a number of aspirations regarding fertility and family may be contradictory with respect to general advances in policcy formulation and implementation. 4 important trends can be discerned: 1) assessment of the potential utility and effectiveness of policy and programmatic efforts; 2) trends in the definition of desirable goals; 3) new directions in terms of the institutiona means for achieving these goals; and 4) shifts in the perception of the individual's freedom of choice.
New York, N.Y., United Nations, 1984. 85 p. (Population Studies, No. 83; ST/ESA/SER.A/83)Upon a recommendation of the Population Commission, at its 20th session in January 1979, the Secretary General of the United Nations convened an Ad Hoc Group of Experts on Demographic Projections from 16 to 19 November 1981 at the UN Headquarters to discuss the methodology used for demographic projections and to consider the relationship of demographic projections to development change and population policies. The expert Group was also requested to provide guidelines and make recommendations to the Secretary-General on how to incorporate demographic changes into the methodology to be used for the next round of world population projections to be prepared by the UN Population Division in collaboration with the regional commissions. The papers prepared by members of the Expert Group as well as those prepared by the Population Division are reproduced in this publication. The recommendations of the Expert Group and a summary of the papers and discussion are also included. The topics addressed in this publication are: 1) problems in making population projections; 2) integration of socioeconomic factors in population projections; 3) population projections as an aid to the formulation and implementation of population policies; 4) current projection assumptions for the United Nations demographic projections; 5) expectations and progressive analysis in fertility prediction; 6) use of the intermediate factors in fertility projections; 7) family planning and population projections; 8) progress of work on a fertility simulation model for population projections at the UN Secretariat; 9) mortality trends and prospects in developing countries: some "best data" indications; 10) the urban and city population projections of the UN: data, definitions and methods; 11) a critical assessment of urban-rural projections with special reference to UN methods; and 12) projections in Europe: some problems.
Washington, D.C., World Bank, Population, Health and Nutrition Dept., 1982 Oct. 46 p. (PHN Technical Notes RES 3)This paper uses data from the World Bank and UNFPA sponsored survey on the determinants of fertility decline in Sri Lanka. The multivariate analysis shows that whereas the traditionally strong influences on fertility, and hence contraceptive use, such as education, age, and labor force participation still exist among the older women, changes in the nature of delivery of family planning services are making these socioeconomic factors less salient among younger women, as well as among subgroups of older women. (author's)