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New York, New York, UNFPA, . v, 36 p. (Report)The former government of Romania sought to maintain existing population and accelerate population growth by restricting migration, increasing fertility, and reducing mortality. The provision and use of family planning (FP) were subject to restrictions and penalties beginning in 1986, the legal marriage age for females was lowered to 15 years, and incentives were provided to bolster fertility. These and other government policies have contributed to existing environmental pollution, poor housing, insufficient food, and major health problems in the country. To progress against population-related problems, Romania most urgently needs to gather reliable population and socioeconomic data for planning purposes, establish the ability to formulate population policy and undertake related activities, rehabilitate the health system and introduce modern FP methods, education health personnel and the public about FP methods, promote awareness of the need for population education, and establish that women's interests are served in government policy and action. These topics, recommendations, and the role of foreign assistance are discussed in turn.
STUDIES IN COMPARATIVE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT. 1988 Winter; 13(4):3-14.Data were taken from "A Compilation of Age Specific Fertility Rates for Developing Countries" (US Bureau of Census, 1979) to compile a detailed profile of teenage fertility in developing countries as a basis for designing policies at an international level. Of the 127 countries for which data were available, 65 countries which had data for circa 1965 and 1970 were considered for this analysis. In 1960, the average number of births/1000 women aged 15-19 years was 116; in 1965 the average was 106. There was considerable variation in teenage fertility rates among countries in the developing world. The coefficients of variation of the number of births/1000 women aged 15-19 years were 47% in 1960 and approximately 44% in 1965. Both the Asian and African regions contained countries with very low teenage fertility rates, 31/1000 women aged 15-19 years in 1960. The lowest 1960 rate for Latin American countries was 50/1000. The largest proportion of all births in 1960 occurred in Latin America, 38%. The countries of Oceania contributed the smallest, 7.2% of the total teen births in 1960. Teenage fertility rates declined in all regions during 1960-65. The analysis of teen fertility rates of developing countries reveals several problematical aspects which have implications for policy formulation, including: the teen fertility rates of developing countries are very high relative to developed nations; and despite the fact that Africa and Latin America have higher teen fertility levels compared to the rest of the developing world, few international agencies have targeted Africa and Latin America as priorities for birth control activities.
Bangkok, Thailand, United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP], 1988 Aug. iii, 41,  p. (Asian Population Studies Series No. 62-K)The goal of this Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) project was to help family planning administrators and other development planners to pinpoint areas of high and low fertility through reference to a series of maps. Maps have the advantage of being able to summarize an enormous number of items of information in an easily comprehendable manner, including not only the levels and trends of fertility of each area, but also the contrasts between areas and groups of areas at 1 time and over time. The project began when data from the 1980 censuses became available and focused on 10 countries: Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, the Philippines, Republic of Korea, Sri Lanka, and Thailand. The maps show in detail, in some cases at the level of very small administrative areas, levels and trends of fertility during the 1970s and where possible the 1960s. The 10 countries participating in this study had to develop new methodological techniques to estimate the fertility of small areas from census data. In most cases, fertility was estimated from the age-sex distribution and children ever born classified by age of mother. Central to the analysis was the concept of reverse survival, which assumes that the number of births can be estimated from the census counts of children and an estimate of the number of children who would have been enumerated in the census if they had not died. The major lesson of this study was that maps of fertility can be drawn with sufficient accuracy to show patterns that cannot be identified easily through any other approach.
Population and Development Review. 1984 Mar; 10(1):103-26.This paper presents some of the results of projections prepared by the World Bank in 1983 for all the world's countries. The projections (presented against a background of recent demographic trends as estimated by the United Nations) trace the approach of each individual country to a stationary state. Implications of the underlying fertility and mortality assumptions are shown mainly in terms of time trends of total population to the year 2100, annual rates of growth, and absolute annual increments. These indices are shown for the largest individual countries, for world regions, and for country groupings according to economic criteria. The detailed predictive performance of such projections is likely to be poor but the projections indicate orders of magnitude characterizing certain aggregate demographic phenomena whose occurrence is highly probable and set clearly interpretable reference points useful in discussing contemporary issues of policy. (author's)