Your search found 29 Results

  1. 1

    Adolescent fertility since the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) in Cairo.

    United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    New York, New York, United Nations, 2013. [65] p. (ST/ESA/SER.A/337)

    This report presents new estimates of the levels and trends in adolescent fertility worldwide from 1990-1995 to 2005-2010. It highlights key social and demographic factors underlying adolescent fertility, including early marriage, first sex, contraceptive use and education. This period coincides with assessments of progress in implementing the Programme of Action of the ICPD and the Millennium Development Goals, which include a focus on reducing early childbearing, expanding access to reproductive health and investing in the human capital of youth, especially girls.
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  2. 2

    Population issues in the 21st century: The role of the World Bank.

    Lakshminarayanan R; May JF; Bos E; Hasan R; Suzuki E

    Washington, D.C., World Bank, Human Development Network, 2007 Apr. [78] p. (HNP Discussion Paper)

    The objective of this paper is to discuss some obstacles and opportunities presented by population processes in order to prioritize areas for investment and analytical work as background information for the 2007 HNP Sector Strategy. Within HNP, two areas fall within population: (1) reproductive, maternal, and sexual health issues, and the health services that address them; and (2) levels and trends in births, deaths, and migration that determine population growth and age structure. Many of the aspects of delivery of sexual and reproductive health services are addressed in the overall sector strategy. This paper, therefore, focuses on the determinants and consequences of demographic change, and on policies and interventions that pertain to fertility and family planning. Fertility has declined in most of the low- and middle-income countries, with TFRs converging toward replacement level, except in 35 countries, mainly in Sub-Saharan Africa, where a broad-based decline in fertility has not occurred. As the priorities of donors and development agencies have shifted toward other issues, and global funds and initiatives have largely bypassed funding of family planning, less attention is being focused on the consequences of high fertility. Reproductive health is conspicuously absent from the MDGs, and assistance to countries to meet the demand for family planning and related services is insufficient. The need for Bank engagement in population issues pertains to economic growth and poverty reduction, as well as inequities in terms of the impact of high fertility on the poor and other vulnerable groups. Evidence indicates that large family size reduces household spending per child, possibly with adverse effects on girls, and the health of mothers and children are affected by parity and birth intervals. Equity considerations remain central to the Bank's work as poor people are less likely to have access to family planning and other reproductive health services. Other vulnerable groups that are less likely to be served by reproductive health services include adolescents and rural populations. Additionally, improved education for girls, equal opportunities for women in society, and a reduction of the proportion of households living below the poverty line are necessary elements of a strategy to achieve sustainable reductions in fertility. The Bank has a comparative advantage to address these issues at the highest levels of country policy setting, and its involvement in many sectors can produce synergies that will allow faster progress than a more narrow focus on family planning services. (author's)
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  3. 3

    Population 2050: 9.4 billion.

    UN Chronicle. 1997 Fall; 34(3):[2] p..

    In the middle of 1996, world population stood at 5.77 trillion persons. Between 1990 and 1995, it grew at the rate of 1.48 per cent per annum, with an average of 81 million persons added each year. This is below the 1.72 per cent per annum at which population had keen growing between 1975 and 1990, and much below the 87 million added each year between 1985 and 1990, which now stands as the peak period in the history of world population growth. These figures are from the recently released 1996 Revision of the official United Nations population estimates and projections, prepared by the Population Division of the Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis. The report indicates that currently 4.59 billion persons--80 per cent of the world's population--live in the less developed regions and 1.18 billion live in the more developed regions. The average annual growth rate is about 1.8 per cent in the less developed and 0.4 per cent in other regions. (excerpt)
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  4. 4

    U.N. advisor Sachs says population explosion poses challenge to Millennium goals.

    Population 2005. 2003 Jun; 5(2):7.

    Secretary-General Kofi Annan's Special Advisor on the United Nations Millennium Development Goals, Jeffrey Sachs, said the current unprecedented population explosion is one of the greatest challenges the world faces in achieving sustainable development. “Success in population policy will translate into success in many other areas we care about,” Mr. Sachs said in the Rafael Salas Memorial Lecture at U.N. Headquarters in New York. The lecture series was initiated in 1989 in tribute to Mr. Salas, who headed the U.N. Population Fund (UNFPA) from its creation until his death in 1987. According to Mr. Sachs, countries with high fertility and mortality are often stuck in extreme poverty. Speeding transition in those countries to low mortality and fertility rates should be a central pillar of their development strategies if they are to meet the Millennium Development Goals - a set of time-bound and measurable goals endorsed by all U.N. member states in September 2000. (excerpt)
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  5. 5
    Peer Reviewed

    Population futures for the next three hundred years: Soft landing or surprises to come?

    Demeny P

    Population and Development Review. 2004 Sep; 30(3):507-517.

    World Population in 2300 (United Nations 2003b), reporting on the proceedings of a December 2003 expert group meeting on long-range population projections and presenting the results of a new set of United Nations population projections, bears out Hajnal's argument. Among his three propositions, the validity of the second is the most obvious. There has been a veritable outpouring of demographic projections during the last 50 years, prepared by various international organizations and national agencies, as well as by independent analysts. Among these, the United Nations Population Division's now biennially revised projections are by far the most detailed, best known, and most widely used. This well-deserved prominence reflects the Division's unparalleled access to national data, its in-house analytic experience and resources, and its willingness to draw on outside expertise whenever that might usefully complement its own. The most recent of the biennial projections, the 2002 Revision (United Nations 2003a), is the immediate predecessor of World Population in 2300, and indeed the former provides the year 2000 to 2050 component for the new set of long-term projections covering the next 300 years. This new set is not just one among the many. It is distinguished from the routine by an exceptionally brave ambition: to draw a picture of plausible demographic futures up to the year 2300 and to do so in extraordinary detail: country-by-country according to the political map of the early twenty-first century. (excerpt)
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  6. 6

    Examining changes in the status of women and gender as predictors of fertility change issues in intermediate-fertility countries.

    Cosio-Zavala ME

    In: Expert Group Meeting on Completing the Fertility Transition, New York, 11-14 March 2002, [compiled by] United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division. New York, New York, United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2004. 91-103.

    The 1994 Cairo Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) focused attention on the role of women’s empowerment in influencing reproductive behavior. However, there is no complete agreement on how this concept should be defined and measured. Because women’s authority can be measured in different ways as well as reproductive attitudes or practices, results of empirical studies are different depending on the indicators used. This has been pointed by the discussion by Kritz and Makinwa-Adebusoye of a Mason and Smith’s article. This debate must be linked to the general debate over the causes and trends of fertility decline in developing countries. In this paper, we propose the introduction of a gender perspective in explaining fertility transitions, as a theoretical point of view that has been missing in the debate. Gender relations have an important role in explaining fertility behavior, a critical and neglected process in explaining fertility transitions. We also present some empirical findings in large intermediate fertility countries as Nigeria, Mexico and India. (excerpt)
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  7. 7

    The impact of education on fertility patterns: an analytical survey of research findings.

    Allman J

    Paris, France, UNESCO, 1973 Jul 9. [123] p. (SHC/WS/297)

    The paper entitled "The Impact of Education on Fertility Patterns: An Analytical Survey of Research Findings" reviews findings on the relationship between education and fertility in developed and developing countries. It presents age-education-specific fertility data for selected countries and discusses problems in data collection and analysis. The use of models an statistical techniques in the analysis of the relationship between education and fertility is considered in the final section. (excerpt)
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  8. 8

    Educational attainment and fertility rates.

    Vavra Z

    Paris, France, UNESCO, 1972 Dec 4. [41] p. (SHC/WS/276)

    This present study attempts to review the state of knowledge today on the relationship between educational attainment and fertility, and to list some of the major institutions conducting research in the area of human fertility, which takes into account the effect of education on fertility. Finally, a bibliography of recent literature (in English) dealing with education and fertility, is given here. (excerpt)
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  9. 9

    Population dynamics and educational planning; a discussion of educational incentive programmes for reduced fertility.

    Finnigan OD 3d

    Paris, France, UNESCO, 1974 May. 41 p.

    As a result the author was asked to enumerate in more detail his suggestions for educational incentives which were spelled out in background paper. BK/73/D/254-120 entitled "Educational Incentive Approaches in Population Planning". This paper is an imperfect attempt to add more clarity to an admittedly sketchy and unclear proposition. It is hoped that others will react to this paper and offer their points of view. It is also hoped that as a result of this effort and the efforts of others, one or more field experiments with educational incentive programmes for reduced fertility will be initiated. It is only after some hard data have been collected that conclusions can be drawn regarding the acceptability and applicability of such a programme on a large scale. (excerpt)
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  10. 10

    Culture and human fertility. A study of the relation of cultural conditions to fertility in non-industrial and transitional societies.

    Lorimer F

    Paris, France, UNESCO, 1954 Oct. 510 p. (Population and Culture)

    The study attempts to develop coherent interpretations of a large mass of diverse demographic, anthropological and other scientific evidence. The committee believes these formulations have value, especially as presenting hypotheses for research and revealing points at which more precise information is needed. Professor Firth, as an anthropologist, and I, as a demographer, have reservations with respect to some of the interpretations. Other scholars who have seen the manuscript support interpretations with which we would disagree. Professor Lorimer himself has indicated that his inferences at many points are tentative formulations. The committee, like the author, presents the study to the public, not as a definitive formulation of the many complex aspects of this subject, but as a significant and valuable, though necessarily subjective, interpretation. The committee shares the author's hope that the publication of this work will lead to more intensive scientific investigations and more definitive knowledge in the future. We believe that Professor Lorimer's work, because it is his own untrammeled product, will accomplish more, both constructively and provocatively, than could be expected at this stage from a study that achieved unanimous agreement by an emasculating compromise. Finally, we wish to express our deep gratitude to Professor Lorimer for the energy, imagination and scholarly dedication with which he has approached his arduous task. (excerpt)
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  11. 11

    Statement to the Thirty-Second Session of the Commission on Population and Development. Agenda item 4: World Population Situation.

    Zlotnik H

    [Unpublished] 1999. Presented at the United Nations Commission on Population and Development, Thirty-second session, New York, New York, March 22-31, 1999 [3] p.

    This paper summarizes the results of the 1998 Revision of World Demographic Prospects. It presents three projection variants known as the "high fertility," "medium fertility," and "low fertility" variants. The medium variant assumes that high fertility countries today will reach replacement level by 2050, while countries with fertility under replacement level today will remain under replacement level. The high variant assumes that the fertility of all countries will be at above replacement level by 2050, and the low variant assumes that the fertility of all countries will be below replacement level by 2050. Significantly, different age distributions result from the different growth dynamics implied by the three variants. Differences in population dynamics between developed and less developed regions are expected to persist during the next century. According to the low and high variants, the population of more developed regions is expected to total 1 and 1.4 billion persons, respectively, in 2050, and according to both medium and low variants, population growth in those regions will be declining by then. Net migration from less developed to more developed regions is expected to make a major contribution to the population growth--or reduced decline in population--of more developed regions in all variants. Projection variants estimate that there will be a continuous reduction of mortality in a majority of countries in the 21st century. The exceptions are the 32 countries with high adult prevalence of HIV/AIDS in 1997, including Brazil and India. By 2050, the impact of HIV/AIDS in the 34 most affected countries is expected to reduce the world's population by 186 million.
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  12. 12

    Post-Cairo population policy: does promoting girls' schooling miss the mark?

    Knodel J; Jones GW

    POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW. 1996 Dec; 22(4):683-702, 814, 816.

    One emphasis of the new population paradigm that emerged at the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development in Cairo concerns gender inequality in education and the need to promote girls' schooling at the secondary level, both as a goal of human development and as a means to encourage lower fertility in developing countries. A critical weakness of this that it fails to address the socioeconomic inequality that deprives both boys and girls of adequate schooling. Such unbalanced attention to one dimension of inequality detracts from the attention accorded to other dimensions. Moreover, while female disadvantage remains an important feature of educational access in some regions, there are numerous countries, even within the developing world, where the gender gap in education is absent or modest, and in almost all countries it has been diminishing substantially over the last few decades. By contrast, the authors contend, inequality in education based on socioeconomic background is nearly universal and, in most cases, more pronounced than gender inequality. Data from various developing countries, especially Thailand and Vietnam, document this situation. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA) (EXCERPT)
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  13. 13

    The course and causes of fertility decline.

    Caldwell J

    Liege, Belgium, International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP], 1994. 17 p. (Distinguished Lecture Series on Population and Development)

    This lecture on updated trends in the world fertility transition was presented in preparation for the Cairo Conference in 1994. Modernization upsets the biological balance of natural fertility and mortality. There is little evidence of significant levels of deliberate birth control in traditional societies. Pre-modern Europe used delayed marriage, no marriage, and discouragement of widow remarriage as constraints on fertility, which were driven by the concept of the proper time to marry and not conscious population planning. Fertility was not consciously controlled, because mortality slowed or stopped population growth, and children were valued as an economic asset. The first major fertility decline began in France and appeared in Europe during the late eighteenth century. Decline occurred without the approval of governments. Diffusion theory, regardless of the debate about what was diffused, has received support. During this period, social changes were occurring. First, the risk of childhood mortality in these countries was declining and had been declining for centuries. Second, knowledge about fertility control was gleaned over long periods of time, sometimes up to 100 years. By the 1950s almost every Western European country had a fertility rate lower than 3, and some countries were at replacement level. Third World countries in the beginning of the 1900s experienced changes in public health measures, which were influential in bringing down death rates. The effect of mortality changes on rapid fertility growth became evident during the 1950s. Fertility patterns did not change markedly until 1965-75 among some countries in Latin America and Asia and in some Pacific Island countries. The declines during the 1960s and 1970s increased and were initiated by technological breakthroughs in fertility control methods. The determinants of this period of fertility decline varied. The impact of socioeconomic change and availability of family planning varied by country. Social changes were reflective of global changes. Fertility declined due to the shift away from an agrarian-based, subsistence society and toward a global society that restricted family size. The shift involved deliberate organization and expenditure and social changes.
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  14. 14

    The socioeconomic determinants of fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa. A summary of the findings of a World Bank research project.

    Ainsworth M

    [Washington, D.C.], World Bank, 1994 Aug 1. iii, 28 p.

    This paper describes and summarizes the key findings of a World Bank research project on the economic and policy determinants of fertility in sub-Saharan Africa. The study focuses upon the effect of individual background characteristics, environmental factors, and public policies on cumulative fertility, contraceptive use, and child mortality. Findings are based upon background papers conducting microeconomic analyses of existing household data sets from the Demographic and Health Surveys and the Living Standards Measurement Study in 15 sub-Saharan countries, ongoing qualitative data collection sponsored by the African Population Advisory Committee, and a review of the population policy environment in twelve of the countries. The relation between women's schooling and fertility was examined in all of the countries and data sets. Women's schooling was found to be the most consistently significant determinant of fertility and contraceptive use. Levels of female schooling are very low across the continent, with only a few exceptions. In most cases, men's schooling is also relatively low. Most governments must therefore work to raise the levels of schooling for both men and women. Reducing the levels of child mortality will also help to lower fertility. In some countries, easing constraints to providing and receiving family planning services would result in higher contraceptive use. For example, lack of physical access to services limits contraceptive use in Nigeria, rural Ghana, and Zimbabwe. The author notes that Botswana, Kenya, and Zimbabwe are the three countries with declining fertility. These countries also have the highest levels of female schooling, the lowest levels of child mortality, and the widest availability of family planning. Prohibitively greater resources may not be needed to effect positive change in countries in need. Instead, reallocating current expenditures could go a long way to reducing fertility, increasing levels of contraceptive use, and increasing levels of male and female schooling.
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  15. 15

    Women's education, fertility and the proximate determinants of fertility.

    Jejeebhoy S

    [Unpublished] 1992. Presented at the International Conference on Population and Development [ICPD], 1994, Expert Group Meeting on Population and Women, Gaborone, Botswana, June 22-26, 1992. 38 p. (ESD/P/ICPD.1994/EG.III/13)

    The role of women's education in fertility and its proximate determinants was approached by first discussing the trends in literacy and school enrollment by gender. The subsequent discussion revealed the trends in direct relationships between education and fertility and education's influence on women's situation. The intervening mechanisms of supply of children, demand for children, unmet need for contraception, and fertility regulation were each discussed. Developing countries have a diversity of cultures, development, and fertility levels, but consistently strong patriarchal systems. Women have the least control over their lives in South Asia and among Muslims. Female literacy and school enrollment also show wide variation worldwide. Analysis of over 100 developing countries found strong inverse correlations between education and fertility, in general, but some variation in specific settings. The dynamic followed an initial fertility increase with increased education (curvilinear relationship), and then, at higher national development levels, an inverse relationship. Threshold levels were needed before fertility declined. Differences narrowed as development level increased. Female education had a stronger impact on fertility than male education or other household socioeconomic characteristics. Education affects women's situation through 1) decision making autonomy, 2) control over resources, 3) knowledge and exposure to the modern world, and 4) husband-wife closeness. Education indirectly affected fertility by delaying entry into marriage, by reducing breast feeding duration and intensity, by lack of observance of traditional postpartum taboos, and by lower infant and child mortality. Better educated women had later marriage, shorter periods of postpartum abstinence, shorter breast feeding periods, and greater use of health care. Societies which maintained female seclusion and strong son preference had reduced returns from improved female education. Education affected deliberate changes in behavior and adoption of smaller family size preferences. Son preference was only weakly eroded by increased education. Better educated women were not as reliant on children for labor or support in old age, although better educated women continued to desire old age economic security. Usually unmet need for contraception was inversely related to maternal education.
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  16. 16

    Inventory of population projects in developing countries around the world, 1993.

    United Nations Population Fund [UNFPA]

    New York, New York, UNFPA, 1994. xiii, 730 p. (Population Programmes and Projects Vol. 2)

    This inventory contains information about externally-assisted population projects and programs in developing countries which were funded, initiated, or implemented by international organizations in 1993. The description of individual country programs begins with demographic facts, which were gleaned, in general, from the UN Population Division's "World Population Prospects: The 1992 Revisions. For the most part, the demographic data apply to 1990. In addition to Population Division data, facts are provided for each country on agricultural population density (per hectare of arable land) and the gross national product per capita. Country descriptions continue with a table of population policy indicators (population growth, fertility level, contraceptive usage, mortality, spatial distribution, internal migration, immigration, and emigration). Projects are then listed for each country according to the source of assistance: multilateral, from the UN system; bilateral, which involves direct assistance from individual governments or their agencies; regional, which includes all organizations located and operational only within a specific geographic area; and nongovernmental or other, such as universities, research or training institutes, and corporations. Assistance is defined to include grants, loans, technical and operational support, training, and provision of equipment and supplies. Listings of research projects are based on an assessment of the value of the information for the donor community and the governments of developing countries. Dollar values are indicated, when possible. Information for regional (involving assistance to several countries within a given region under one program), interregional (activities in specific countries located in more than one geographical region), and global (not limited to specific countries, groups of countries, or regions) programs is organized similarly, but no population policy indicators are given. The inventory ends with a list of addresses and an index.
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  17. 17

    Population and development. Background paper for the International Conference on Population and Development, Cairo 5-13 September 1994.

    Blegved L; Pedersen VS; Rasmussen N; Silberschmidt M; Vilby K

    Copenhagen, Denmark, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Danida, 1994. [4], 63 p.

    This report identifies and discusses the central issues, problems, and contradictions in the population debate in order to provide background information for the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development and a basis for the development of Denmark's population policy. The introduction describes the 2 basic contradicting indicators of the unprecedented global annual growth rate of 93 million people and the equally unprecedented rapid decline in the total fertility rate in developing countries (from 6 in 1950 to 3.6 today). The next section deals with the links between population and development, including the risk of demographic traps and production and consumption traps. 6 major trends in population and sustainability are explored in terms of regional and national differences. Contradictions and myths in the population/development debate are then discussed. The third section of the report presents the demographic context including a short overview of population theories, the most recent global demographic projections, and the most important fertility determinants (infant and child mortality, the status of women, and the quality of services). Section 4 provides a discussion of the different approaches and rationales for the establishment of global and various national population policies and family planning (FP) programs. The final section is concerned with the transition from FP to sexual and reproductive health and rights. This discussion covers the role of vertical FP programs, integrated maternal-child health and FP services, and the transition to more comprehensive reproductive health services. Sexual and reproductive health is then considered within the gender framework and from a human rights perspective. Charts with data on population projections, the prevalence of contraceptive use in developing countries, and the total fertility rate since 1960 are appended.
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  18. 18

    Levels, age patterns and trends of sterility in selected countries South of the Sahara.

    Larsen U

    In: International Population Conference / Congres International de la Population, Montreal 1993, 24 August - 1st September. Volume 1, [compiled by] International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP]. Liege, Belgium, IUSSP, 1993. 593-603.

    Using data collected in cooperation with the World Fertility Surveys (WFS) and the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) the aim was to determine the levels, age patterns, and trends of sterility in benin, Burundi, Cameroon, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Mali, Mauritania, Nigeria, Senegal, Sudan, Togo, and Uganda. In sub-Saharan Africa, 10 countries completed a WFS survey from 1977 to 1982. From 1986 to 1991 a DHS survey was carried out in 13 countries. In Sudan, Lesotho and Mauritania only ever married women were eligible for interview. All women (generally age 15-49) were eligible in the rest of the sub-Saharan countries. The selected samples included women who had been sexually active at least 5 years. Subsequently the levels and range patterns of sterility were estimated for each country and by produce within each country. The inhibiting effect of sterility on fertility was also assessed. Age-specific rates of sterility were estimated by the subsequently infertile estimator. At age 34, the proportions sterile reached .41 in Cameroon, .11 in Burundi, and intermediate levels in the rest of the countries. Burundi had the lowest prevalence of sterility at all ages, Cameroon had the highest up to about age 42, and at older ages Sudan and Lesotho ranked highest. In general, sterility rose moderately up to age 35 and then more rapidly after age 40. Sterility was particularly prevalent along major rivers, lakes, and coastal areas. Sterility was relatively high around Lake Victoria as well as in the Coast region of Kenya in 1977-78. Primary sterility was less than 3% in Burundi, Ghana, Kenya, Togo, and in Ondo state, Nigeria; 3-5% in Lesotho, Liberia, Mali, and Nigeria (1990), Senegal, Sudan (1989-90) and Uganda; and 5% or more in Cameroon, Nigeria (1981-82), and Sudan (1978-79). Differential disease patterns caused the most variation in age-specific rates of sterility. Under the hypothesis of Burundi levels of age specific sterility and unchanged fertility, and African woman in the age range from 20 to 44 would have an additional .5 to 2 children.
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  19. 19

    Women, population and the environment.

    United Nations Population Fund [UNFPA]

    New York, New York, UNFPA, 1992. [4], 19 p.

    The United Nations Population Fund has been in the forefront in its recognition of the reciprocal interaction between women's status, on the one hand, and economic development, environmental protection, and population, on the other hand. Women's educational, employment, and health status exert a significant influence on their fertility levels, their capacity to manage the environment, and their contribution to social and economic development. Thus, it is essential that all development initiatives respond to women's needs and acknowledge their reproductive, economic, and community roles. Moreover, women must be decision makers in as well as beneficiaries of, development. The Fund has identified 3 priorities for program and project support: 1) focusing the attention of policy makers on women's potential to serve as agents of change in the interrelated areas of economic development, population, and natural resource management; 2) increasing women's access to family planning and other health services as well as their opportunities for employment in the modern sector; and 3) utilizing the experience and resources of a range of institutions to forge a multidisciplinary, strategic approach to incorporating women into development activities. Research areas in need of priority include analyses of the ways in which women's socioeconomic situation affects their capacity to manage and use natural resources in a sustainable manner, data on the relationship between women's health status and demands on their time, and strategies for incorporating women--the primary users of common property forest resources--into plans for ecologic balance. Finally, attention must be given to the following areas: providing women with access to agricultural extension services and credit schemes, the training of women in resource management and conservation, attention to women's traditional knowledge of natural resource management, and utilization of women's groups in all aspects of the development process.
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  20. 20


    Phillips JF; Ross JA

    In: Family planning programmes and fertility, edited by J.F. Phillips, J.A. Ross. Oxford, England, Clarendon Press, 1992. 3-9.

    There is increasing evidence that family planning (FP) programs shape demographic trends as substantiated by pronounced variations in fertility trends between countries and regions after a uniformly high level in the 1960s. The issues addressed include the debate on the role of FP programs as fertility determinants, methods for evaluating fertility outcomes, techniques for fertility assessment as codified in the 1970s by a committee of the UN Population Division, and the application of methods in research, training, and policy formulation. The recognition for theories to guide research on the demographic role of programs was summarized by a subcommittee on population of the US National Academy of Sciences stressing that theory was obliged to generate testable processes about the contraceptive service supply system. Community level factors affect FP services by putting constraints on parental demand for birth. Reductions in costs of family regulation can affect the demand for children. The Easterlin Synthesis Framework is used for examining the demand-supply paradigm. Programs as fertility determinants are examined in relation to social, familial, and programmatic influences on reproductive behavior. The demand for contraception is examined based on data collected by the Demographic and Health Surveys Project: demand reached 76% in 8 of 11 countries studied suggesting that fertility could be substantially lowered by meeting this unmet need. Adjustment and promotion affect the demand for contraception. The impact of effective, low-cost contraceptives on contraceptive behavior is analyzed along with how program intensity, convenience, and proximity increase contraceptive prevalence. Social and institutional factors also govern reproductive behavior as the limitations and successes of the 1-child policy of China illustrates.
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  21. 21

    A strategy for reducing numbers? Response.

    Jolly R

    HEALTH FOR THE MILLIONS. 1991 Dec; 17(5):28.

    UNICEF advocates the reduction of infant/child mortality because it feels that such an action will reduce both fertility and human suffering. It was feared in the beginning, and today as well, that increasing the survival rate for children would cause rapid population growth. However, there is a large body of evidence to the contrary. When such measures are combined with measures to promote and support family planning there are even greater reductions in fertility levels. This is why such organizations as UNFPA, WHO, and UNICEF have advocated this course of action. This strategy is also present in the Declaration of the World Summit for Children. Anyone advocating the reduction in support for programs designed to enhance child survival as a method of population control is confusing the issues, misdirecting environmental attention, and stirring up the debate about international mortality. The evidence clearly shows that family planning without family health, including child health, is much less successful. Further, child mortality, even at high levels does little to slow population growth while such death and suffering greatly burden women and families. While rapid population growth and high population densities in developing countries present serious problems, both are much less important than the high levels of consumption in developed nations. Each child in the industrialized world will, at present levels of consumption, be expected to consume 30 to 100 times more than a child born in the poorest nations. Such suggestions in a time of instant global communication only attempt to set back international morality and tempt those in the international intellectual community to embrace ideas similar to the eugenic principles that led to the holocaust.
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  22. 22

    Educating girls.

    Bellew R; Raney L; Subbarao K

    FINANCE AND DEVELOPMENT. 1992 Mar; 54-6.

    20 years of research has established that the economic and social benefits of women's primary and secondary schooling are far reaching. The more educated a population's women are, the fewer children they have, and the ones they do have are healthier. However, social tradition and other economic considerations often force families to exclude young girls from education in favor of boys. The safety of young girls is one consideration as well as their value as household labor. There is also a false impression that the good of the community is served if boys are educated, but not so the same for girls. Evidence has been complied to show that in populations where women are more educated, the level of poverty is lower. Because society gains by educating its girls, how can governments change the traditions that have educating its girls, how can governments change the traditions that have previously kept girls under educated? The government of Bangladesh and Guatemala have been very successful with scholarship programs at the primary and secondary level. In Bangladesh the enrollment of females in secondary school almost doubled. The program is also credited with increasing attendance of primary schools, increasing labor force participation, postponing the age of marriage and reducing fertility. Between 1972-80 there were 105 Bank assisted primary and secondary school programs. Of these 20% identified the presence of genderissues, but only 10% included significant actions to improve females enrollment. Between 1981-1991 about half of the Bank assisted programs identified the presence of gender issues, and a quarter included significant actions to improve female enrollment.
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  23. 23

    Background and aims of the ESCAP impact and efficiency study.

    United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP]. Secretariat

    In: Population policies and programmes: current status and future directions, [compiled by] United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP]. New York, New York, United Nations, 1987. 165-75. (Asian Population Studies Series No. 84; ST/ESCAP/563)

    The ESCAP impact and efficiency study of family planning programs focuses on their cost and their influence on fertility. The study was carried out in 3 phases: (1) measurement of influence of family planning on fertility decline versus socioeconomic inputs, (2) performance evaluation within programs and rating by efficiency, (3) repeat 1 using inputs from 2. The purpose of the study is the improved management of programs and better population policies due to better understanding of social, economic and environmental conditions. The study includes 5 countries: Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia, Korea, and Thailand, where there are well established family planning programs. The methodology used in these studies was developed by Hermalin in 1978 in his work on areal analysis. The methodology of phase 2 is an in- depth analysis of efficient and inefficient programs and finding the differences. Socioeconomic development influences the motive for birth control, and family planning offers the means to obtain desired family size. Also in low income areas incentive payments can have a large impact on fertility control. Statistical problems can be attributed to small sample size and multicollinearity of predictor variables. The most common data problems involve the measurement of program input from private, commercial and public sector programs. The most serious problem is collecting enough reliable data. Since family planning projects are closely tied to development projects, new evaluation techniques must be devised to measure their influence and productivity. This requires ways to explain behavioral changes as related to program costs, inputs, demands, and outputs.
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  24. 24

    Fourteenth annual report.

    World Health Organization [WHO]. Special Programme of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction

    Geneva, Switzerland, WHO, 1985 Dec. ix, 219 p.

    In response to mandates of the 1984 International Conference on Population, WHO's Special Program of Research, Development, and Research Training in Human Reproduction has established new Task Forces, strengthened the research capabilities of institutions in developing countries, intensified research on steroidal contraception, expanded attention to the social determinants and consequences of fertility, and increased collaboration with other major international programs engaged in research in human reproduction. The bulk of this annual report includes a technical review of the activities and plans of the Program's 9 Task Forces: Tasks Force on Long-Acting Systemic Agents; Task Force on Postovulatory Methods; Task Force on Vaccines; Task Force on Plants; Task Force on Male Methods; Task Force on Infertility; Task Force on Safety and Efficacy; Task Force on Behavioral and Social Determinants of Fertility; and work in the strengthening of research resources. Each Task Force report is presented in 4 major sections: the field of interest, comprising a brief review of the relevant technical subjects; the strategic plan, explaining how work is structured and scheduled; collaboration with other programs; and activities of the Task Force through the end of 1985. Also included in this report are sections on resources for research and management and financial matters. A Committee on Resources for Research has just been formed to review strategies for strengthening research resources in developing countries.
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  25. 25

    Female employment and fertility in developing countries

    Brazzell JF

    In: Quantitative approaches to analyzing socioeconomic determinants of Third World fertility trends: reviews of the literature. Project final report: overview, by Indiana University Fertility Determinants Group, George J. Stolnitz, director. [Unpublished] 1984. 79-91.

    Simple no-work/work distinctions are an unreliable basis for estimating causal linkages connecting female employment/work-status patterns to fertility. World Fertility Survey (WFS) data show about 3/4, 1/2, and 1/4 child differentials for over 20, 10-19, and under 10 years marital duration grouss respectively, for women employed since marriage. Effects on marriage seem strongest in Latin America and weakest in Asia. Controlling for age, marital duration, urban-rural residence, education, and husband's work status. But from the results of a number of WFS and other studies, it seems relationships of work status and fertility are difficult to confirm beyond directional indications, even in Latin America. A UN study using proximate determinants such as contraception and work status including a housework category indicated differentials in contraceptive practice were not significant net of control for education. Philippine data indicates low-income employment might increase fertility by decreasing breastfeeding, while WFS data from 5 Asian countries indicated pre-marital work encourages increased marriage age, without being specific about effects. Also, female employment must affect a large population to have a real impact on aggregate fertility, since female labor force activity is likely to change slowly if at all. Data presently available do not cover micro-level factors that may be important, such as effects of work on breastfeeding, nor do they lend themselves to examination by multi-equation analysis. More work is needed to isolate effects of work-status attributes like male employment, and to analyze intra-cohort mid-course fertility objective changes, as well as new theoretical process models such as competing time use and maternal role incompatibility.
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