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Chapel Hill, North Carolina, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Carolina Population Center, MEASURE Evaluation, 2015 Apr.  p. (FS-15-136; USAID Cooperative Agreement No. AID-OAA-L-14-00004)This executive summary introduces the full report (See POPLINE record 337627) examining the 50-year period starting in the mid-1960s that witnessed a dramatic decline in fertility and steady increase in contraceptive use in the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region.
Chapel Hill, North Carolina, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Carolina Population Center, MEASURE Evaluation, 2015 Apr.  p. (SR-15-118C; USAID Cooperative Agreement No. AID-OAA-L-14-00004)This publication is one of eight case studies that were developed as part of a broader review entitled Family Planning in Latin America and the Caribbean: The Achievements of 50 Years. As its title implies, the larger review documents and analyzes the accomplishments in the entire region since the initiation of U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) funding in the early 1960s. El Salvador has made enormous progress in terms of family planning over the past five decades. It has reduced fertility rates; it has developed a robust legal and regulatory framework for FP; it has allocated resources for procuring contraceptives for its population; it now offers information and contraceptive services to the entire population of the country with the active participation of civil society organizations, especially women’s organizations.
Chapel Hill, North Carolina, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Carolina Population Center, MEASURE Evaluation, 2015 Apr.  p. (SR-15-118F; USAID Cooperative Agreement No. AID-OAA-L-14-00004)This publication is one of eight case studies that were developed as part of a broader review entitled Family Planning in Latin America and the Caribbean: The Achievements of 50 Years. As its title implies, the larger review documents and analyzes the accomplishments in the entire region since the initiation of U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) funding in the early 1960s. Nicaragua has made significant progress in improving its macro-level primary health care indicators, reducing maternal mortality and increasing contraceptive prevalence. There has also been increased participation by the Instituto Nicaragense de Seguridad Social (INSS) in providing family planning services and commodities, thus reducing the burden on health ministry facilities. The government has shown its strong commitment to comprehensive services to improve the health of the population.
Chapel Hill, North Carolina, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Carolina Population Center, MEASURE Evaluation, 2015 Apr.  p. (SR-15-118A; USAID Cooperative Agreement No. AID-OAA-L-14-00004)This publication is one of eight case studies that were developed as part of a broader review entitled Family Planning in Latin America and the Caribbean: The Achievements of 50 Years. As its title implies, the larger review documents and analyzes the accomplishments in the entire region since the initiation of U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) funding in the early 1960s. Family planning has become so deeply entrenched as a social norm in Colombia that it no longer constitutes the special area of interest that it did in the 1960s and 1970s. Nonetheless, challenges remain.
Chapel Hill, North Carolina, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Carolina Population Center, MEASURE Evaluation, 2015 Apr.  p. (TR-15-101; USAID Cooperative Agreement No. AID-OAA-L-14-00004)This report examines the 50-year period starting in the mid-1960s that witnessed a dramatic decline in fertility and steady increase in contraceptive use in the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region. The current contraceptive prevalence rate (all methods) of 74 percent is among the highest of any region in the developing world. Many factors have contributed to the dramatic decline in fertility in the LAC region over the past 50 years: increased educational levels, improved economic conditions, decreased infant and child mortality, rapid urbanization, political stability, and changing cultural norms, among others. While recognizing the influence of these factors on fertility, what role did use of family planning play in fertility decline in the region? What lessons can be drawn for other developing countries committed to a development path that strengthens family planning services and improves health and living standards for their people? This report examines the specific role of family planning in accelerating fertility decline in the LAC region.
[Unpublished] 2005. Presented at the 2005 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, March 31 - April 2, 2005. 22 p.The aim of this paper is to identify the lessons of the earlier population movement for AIDS control. We begin at the international level, where problems and solutions were defined, funding raised, interventions conceived. Although the problems and solutions were perceived as global, the multilateral and bilateral agencies that directed the interventions necessarily had to work through the governments of sovereign states, or at the least with their permission. We then examine the local responses that, in the case of the population movement, led to fertility decline and, we predict, will lead to a downturn in the spread of HIV. In our conclusions, we attempt to distill the key points of these sagas: what have we learned about the process of delinking sex from birth that is relevant for current humanitarian efforts to sever the connection between sex and death? (excerpt)
Genus. 2005 Jul-Dec; 61(3-4):27-48.The International Conference Trends and Problems of the World Population in the 21st Century. 50 years since Rome 1954, was held in Rome, under the High Patronage of the President of the Italian Republic, at the "Accademia dei Lincei" on the 26th and 27th of May 2005 and at University of Rome "La Sapienza" on the 28th of May 2005. Organized by the Accademia dei Lincei, the University of Rome "La Sapienza" and its Department of Demograpy, the Conference was financially supported by the Banca d' Italia and the Compagnia di San Paolo. After the five fundamental United Nations Conferences on Population - held in Rome in 1954 and in Belgrade in 1965, and the following, intergovernmental, held in Bucarest in 1974, Mexico City in 1984 and in Cairo in 1994 - this Conference has been a new, important occasion for the analysis and the debate on population problems bringing them back to Rome after the first pionieristic, merely academic, Conference organized by the United Nations in Rome in September 1954. At that time in Rome the debate highlighted trends and problems that would have characterized the world population during the second half of the 20th century and that have contributed in defining the population policy carried out by the UN and by the single countries. This time, once again in Rome, the aim has been to identify trends and problems that are likely to affect the world population in the first half of the 21st century and to provide cues able to define and build population policies. In one word to revitalize the debate on population issues which have been, for some time, languishing both in the UN and in many countries. (excerpt)
Will the circle be unbroken? - includes related article on population assistance to developing countries - child survival programs and fertility decline.
UN Chronicle. 1998 Winter; 35(4): p..The demographic transition which has been under way in the developing countries since the middle of the twentieth century has shown much difference, both in its course and in the factors behind it, from the transition which started two centuries ago in countries that are now developed. In the developed countries, the gradual improvement in living conditions accompanying industrialization and urbanization, coupled with broadening education and sanitation and a growing understanding of the principle of hygiene and nutrition, resulted in progressive gains in child survival and declines in mortality at all ages. These same forces of development were progressively changing attitudes towards reproduction, reducing the demand for children and lowering marital fertility. In the developing countries, there have been unprecedented declines in mortality over a few decades since midcentury. Only sub-Saharan Africa as a whole Ires not yet entered into this phase of demographic transition to a significant extent. A distinguishing feature of this transition has been that declines in mortality and fertility were not accompanying major gains in economic development. (excerpt)
Population 2005. 2003 Jun; 5(2):1-4.The 2002 Revision of the official United Nations population estimates and projections, which has been issued recently, projects a world population of 8.9 billion in 2050 rather than 9.3 billion projected in the 2000 revision. About half of the 0.4 billion difference in these projected populations results from an increase in the number of projected deaths, the majority stemming from higher projected levels of HIV prevalence. The other half of the difference reflects a reduction in the projected number of births, primarily as a result of lower expected future fertility levels. Despite the lower fertility levels projected and the increased mortality risks to which some populations will be subject, the population of the world is expected to increase by 2.6 billion during the next 47 years, from 6.3 billion today to 8.9 billion in 2050. However, the realization of these projections is contingent on ensuring that couples have access to family planning and that efforts to arrest the current spread of the HIV/AIDS epidemic are successful in reducing its growth momentum. The potential for considerable population increase remains high. (excerpt)
The role of international funding in future fertility declines among intermediate-fertility countries.
In: Expert Group Meeting on Completing the Fertility Transition, New York, 11-14 March 2002, [compiled by] United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division. New York, New York, United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2004. 86-90.The intent of this paper is to speculate on the course of future fertility in “intermediate fertility countries” on the basis of an examination of the role that external funding has played in fertility declines in the recent past. My hope was to be able to show that the level of external funding has played some part in determining the pace of fertility decline in many countries to date and to be able to argue, therefore, that the pace and extent of future declines may be affected by prospective external funding. “Intermediate fertility countries” are defined by the United Nations Population Division, the organizers of the conference for which this paper was prepared, as having total fertility rates (TFRs) above replacement level (2.1) and below 5.0. There are around 74 such countries in the world today, nearly all of them in the developing world regions of Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America. (excerpt)
Washington, D.C., Population Reference Bureau [PRB], 2002 May-Jun.  p.A March meeting of demographers at the United Nations captured headlines proclaiming "Population Decline in Sight," "Shrinking World," and "Population Boom a Bust." Although more attention to population trends is welcome news, the media's focus on a single aspect of the UN's deliberations produced stories at odds with what many participants took away from the meeting. What happened at the Expert Group Meeting on Completing the Fertility Transition, the third in a series on future fertility trends, was that population experts endorsed a proposal by the UN Population Division to accommodate fertility levels below the two-child- per-couple replacement level in the division's 2002 revision of its world population estimates and projections. Endorsement came after examination of the fertility prospects for a large group of less developed countries, those with a total fertility rate less than 5 children per woman, but more than 2.1, or the "intermediate-fertility" countries. This group includes Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, and Vietnam. This step means the UN will consider fine-tuning its assumptions. It is also considering projecting to 2075. (excerpt)
New York, New York, United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2002 Mar 11.  p.This paper reviews the status of the fertility transition and the processes that have led to the nearly universal reductions of fertility achieved so far. The state of current knowledge, buttressed by the actual experience of a growing number of countries, suggests that lengthy periods of below-replacement fertility are likely to be common in the future. Revised guidelines for the United Nations 2002 Revision for the projection of fertility in today’s intermediate-fertility countries are proposed based on the recognition that replacement-level fertility is not necessarily hard-wired in the evolution of populations. The proposed guidelines imply that, under the medium variant, approximately 80 per cent of the world population will be projected to have below-replacement fertility before mid-century. (author's)
In: An agenda for people: the UNFPA through three decades, edited by Nafis Sadik. New York, New York, New York University Press, 2002. 137-150.This volume chronicles the remarkable success -- indeed, the reproductive revolution -- that has taken place over the last thirty years, in which the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) has played such a major role. Our purpose in this chapter is to contrast the situation at the century's end with the one that existed at the time of UNFPA's creation thirty years ago, and to project from the current situation to the new challenges that lie ahead. In many respects, the successful completion of the fertility transition that is now so far advanced will bring an entirely new set of challenges, and these will require a fundamental rethinking about the future mandate, structure, staffing and programme of UNFPA in the twenty-first century. Our purpose here is to identify those challenges and speculate about their implications. (author's)
In: An agenda for people: the UNFPA through three decades, edited by Nafis Sadik. New York, New York, New York University Press, 2002. 2-23.In demographic terms, the last thirty years have been quite distinct from the period that preceded it, or, indeed, from any other period in history. The global fertility level had been almost stable for at least twenty years prior to 1965-1969, with a total fertility rate just under 5 children per woman, and this stability did not hide countervailing forces in different parts of the world. The developed countries, whether they had participated or not in the post-World War II “baby boom,” showed no strong trends in fertility, with a total fertility rate remaining around 2.7. The same lack of change characterized the developing countries, but there the total fertility rate was well over 6, as it may well have been for millennia. (excerpt)
2003 world population data sheet of the Population Reference Bureau. Demographic data and estimates for the countries and regions of the world.
Washington, D.C., PRB, 2003. 13 p.With every passing year, prospects for population growth in the more developed and less developed countries grow more dissimilar. On this year’s Data Sheet, the total fertility rate (TFR) for the more developed countries is a mere 1.5, compared with 3.1 in the less developed countries—3.5 if outlier China’s large statistical effect is removed. But the passage of time, as well as the difference in fertility rates, is ensuring that the two types of countries can expect to continue to have different population sizes in the future. The decline in Europe’s fertility rates is not a recent phenomenon; those rates have been low for quite some time. As a result, there have been long-term changes to age distributions in Europe, and this “youth dearth” is now taking on a more significant role in the near certainty of population decline. (excerpt)
Medical Hypotheses. 2003 Jul; 61(1):21-22.According to the United Nations, global fertility has declined in the last century as reflected by a decline in birth rates. The earth’s surface air temperature has increased considerably and is referred to as global warming. Since changes in temperature are well known to influence fertility we sought to determine if a statistical relationship exists between long-term changes in global air temperatures and birth rates. The most complete and reliable birth rate data in the 20th century was available in 19 industrialized countries. Using bivariate and multiple regression analysis, we compared yearly birth rates from these countries to global air temperatures from 1900 to 1994. A common pattern of change in birth rates was noted for the 19 industrialized countries studied. In general, birth rates declined markedly throughout the century except during the baby boom period of approximately 1940 to 1964. An inverse relationship was found between changes in global temperatures and birth rates in all 19 countries. Controlling for the linear yearly decline in birth rates over time, this relationship remained statistically significant for all the 19 countries in aggregate and in seven countries individually (p <0:05). Conclusions. The results of our analyses are consistent with the underlying premise that temperature change affects fertility and suggests that human fertility may have been influenced by change in environmental temperatures. (author's)
Spotlight. 2003 May 30-Jun 5; 22(46): p..J. Bill Musoke, Country Representatives of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), has been in Nepal for more than couple of years. Musoke, who has been involved in the implementation and execution of the UNFPA's major programs, spoke to Keshab Poudel on various population-related issues. (excerpt)
In: European Population Conference / Conference Europeenne sur la Population. Proceedings / Actes. Volume 2. 23-26 March 1993, Geneva, Switzerland / 23-26 mars 1993, Geneve, Suisse, [compiled by] United Nations. Economic Commission for Europe, Council of Europe, United Nations Population Fund [UNFPA]. Strasbourg, France, Council of Europe, 1994. 235-9.Population is expected to increase at a rate of 0.5% annually in Malta. Population aging will continue as a result of increased life expectancy and declining fertility. In 1989, the birth rate was 15.1/1000. Excess population in Malta has found release through migration, and only 22% returned during the period 1946-74. Migration and emigration were balanced between 1974 and 1987. Since then, an increase in emigration has added to population aging. In 1990, the population pyramid indicated an unstable population. 24.3% are aged 30-44 years, 30.7% aged under 20 years, and 14.7% aged over 60 years. People aged 20-60 years comprised the largest population group (54.6%). By 2020, the elderly will comprise 23.3% of total population. Expenditures on services and social security for the elderly have increased since 1987 in accordance with government policy on increased social spending. The second phase of the demographic transition began after 1942 with a decline in infant mortality. The third phase began in the mid-1950s with a stabilization of the crude mortality rate and a decline in the birth rate. Responsible parenthood was encouraged in 1956 and thereafter, because of government concerns about future economic and social conditions and population density. The largest drop in the crude birth rate (33-16.3) occurred between 1950 and 1970. The final transition occurred after 1970 and was characterized by low birth and death rates.
The impact of changes on Latin American and Caribbean women: education, knowledge and demographic trends. Discussion note.
[Unpublished] 1992. Presented at the International Conference on Population and Development [ICPD], 1994, Expert Group Meeting on Population and Women, Gaborone, Botswana, June 22-26, 1992. 9 p. (ESD/P/ICPD.1994/EG.III/DN.10)Current theoretical and conceptual frameworks have included broader notions of social welfare and the quality of life within development discussions. Gender issues have been more easily integrated into development models. Modernization, as advances in economic conditions and the growth of technology, has rapidly changed societies. Although democracy has been included as a given for human development, a wider gap has appeared between the rich and poor. In Latin America expectations were set up for the social mobility of women and young people, when the debt crisis hit. Future models of women in development must eliminate the gender dichotomies and offer perspectives that explain the contradictions. A proposal was offered for achieving international competitiveness by changing production patterns, using innovation to achieve efficiency and equity, and creating possibilities for international cooperation. Gender equity means redistribution within socioeconomic groups and involvement of women in development. In Latin America, importance was placed on how women were integrated into development. Flexibility and innovation will be the goals of education, which should be compatible with the past traditional role women have carried. Specific measures will need to be introduced for maternal and child care, prenatal care, and flexible working hours. Child care must be part of a coordinated effort among public, private, business, and community sectors. The domestic burden of women will need to be lightened. Reproduction rights in Latin America and the Caribbean must be secured not only for women but also for men. Advances in medicine have reduced risk in childbirth, raised life expectancies, and provided options for women to control unwanted fertility. Excess female mortality due to preventable causes was highest among poor women. Access to education has increased but without a companion increase in labor market opportunity or income levels. In 1977, ECLAC adopted a Regional Plan of Action for the Integration of Women into Latin American and Caribbean Development which recognized women's vulnerability and the need for comprehensive, periodic assessments.
In: Population policies and programmes. Proceedings of the United Nations Expert Group Meeting on Population Policies and Programmes, Cairo, Egypt, 12-16 April 1992. New York, New York, United Nations, 1993. 27-41. (ST/ESA/SER.R/128)The world population reached 5.4 billion in mid-1991, and it is growing by 1.7% per annum. The medium-variant United Nations population projection for the year 2025 is now 8.5 billion, 260 million more than the United Nations projection in 1982. This implies reducing the total fertility rate in the developing countries from 3.8 to 3.3 by the year 2000 and increasing contraceptive prevalence from 51 to 59%. This will involve extending family planning services to 2 billion people. For the first time, fertility is declining worldwide, as governments have adopted fertility reduction measures through primary health care education, employment, housing, and the enhanced status of women. Since the 1960s, contraceptive prevalence in developing countries has grown from less than 10% to slightly over 50%. However, 300 million men and women worldwide who desire to plan their families lack contraceptives. Life expectancy has been increasing: for the world, it is 65.5 years for 1990-1995. Infant mortality rates have been halved. Child mortality has plummeted, but in more than one-third of the developing countries it still exceeds 100 deaths/1000 live births. Globally, child immunization coverage increased from only 5% in 1974 to 80% in 1990. At the beginning of the 1980s, only about 100,000 persons worldwide were infected with HIV. During the 1980s, 5-10 million people became infected. WHO projects that the cumulative global total of HIV infections will be between 30 and 40 million by 2000. The European governments are concerned with growing international migration. Currently, 34.5% of governments have adopted policies to lower immigration. In the early 1970s, the number of refugees worldwide was about 3.5 million; by the late 1980s, they had increased to nearly 17 million. A Program of Action for the Least Developed Countries for the 1990s was adopted in September 1990 to strengthen the partnership with the international donor community.
New York, New York, United Nations, 1992. viii, 134 p. (ST/ESA/SER.A/131)The most recent UN analysis of fertility levels and trends over the period 1965-89 in selected countries which have achieved fertility transition from high to low fertility is presented. The study is both descriptive and analytical. All low fertility countries analyzed, with the exceptions of Romania, Ireland, and the former USSR, had total fertility of 2.1 or less in 1988-89 and include the following: Japan, Hong Kong, Republic of Korea, Singapore, most European countries, Canada, the US, Australia, and New Zealand. Low fertility countries from other geographical regions were omitted due to the lack of countries with similar sociocultural contexts available for comparison purposes. Low-fertility countries with population under 300,000 were also not considered. Data coverage, quality, and availability; the measurement of fertility; and comparability problems both across countries and through time are discussed in the first chapter. Patterns of fertility decline are then presented with consideration given to period, cohort, overall, and adolescent fertility; population reproduction; age at child-bearing; number of births; birth order, and births by legitimacy status. A scenario of societal process is then hypothesized which may have favored or conditioned changes in reproductive values and modified the proximate determinants of fertility. Specifically, attention is given to demographic conditions, technological progress and economic development, the role and status of women, effects on couples and families, changing reproductive norms, marriage, divorce, contraception, abortion, diversity of conditions, and fertility policies. Analysis reveals a sharp fertility decline from 1965 to the mid-1980s followed by a stabilization of period fertility in some countries and upward fluctuations in several. This decline has affected in all groups, with greatest reductions at age 35 and over, and has been led by the greater practice of contraception and changing societal attitudes on marriage and reproduction. UN medium-variant projections foresee the population of more developed regions increasing by 12% over 1990-2025 versus 75% in less developed regions. Population aging should also be expected. Social and immigration policy are finally discussed in the context of these population trends.
New York Times on the Web. 2002 Mar 12;  p..According to a UN study, women around the world are choosing to have fewer children, confounding long-held predictions of a global population of 10 billion by the end of the century. In the past few decades, however, massive amounts of declines in birth rates were observed in the large, developing nations that were driving the growth. Countries belonging to the intermediate level fertility group, where women have between 2.1 and 5 children each, accounts for about 43% of the world's population. Nevertheless, it is suggested that those countries are heading toward a fertility rate of 1.85 children for each woman by 2050, a significant decrease that in India alone would represent 85 million fewer people. If that is the case, the world population would ultimately begin to shrink, though not in this century.
[Population and development: the principal stakes five years after the Cairo Conference] Population et developpement: les principaux enjeux cinq ans apres la Conference du Caire.
Paris, France, Centre Francais sur la Population et Developpement [CEPED], Laboratoire Population-Environnement, 2001 Jun. , 220 p. (Documents et Manuels du CEPED No. 12)The UN General Assembly has evaluated the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development’s program of action adopted in Cairo. This document pulls together some of the papers drafted during that evaluation conducted during June 30-July 2, 1999. It is comprised of the following 16 chapters: population, environment, and development; rural settlement, agricultural change, and property administration; urban growth and city management; international migration; fertility decline, human development, and population policies; young child mortality; reproductive health and AIDS; the spread of AIDS and its impact upon population growth; education policies in developing countries; recent employment trends and perspectives; the current context and policies to reduce poverty and inequity; gender, population, and development; the French perspective upon the environment; the stakes and politics of demographic aging in France; international migration dynamics in France; and poverty and exclusion in modern society. A different author wrote each chapter.
The pace of fertility transition: national patterns in the second half of the twentieth century. [El ritmo de la transición de la fertilidad: patrones nacionales en la segunda mitad del siglo veinte]
Population and Development Review. 2001; 27 Suppl:17-52.This chapter examines the pace of fertility decline in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. It is noted that the size and structure of these countries' populations in the 21st century will be determined by the pace of fertility decline and by the level of post-decline fertility. An examination of empirical data on fertility transitions is discussed, documenting the variation in pace of decline at the national level. A shift to a conceptual framework is also made in order to understand the variation in the pace of fertility transitions. Moreover, rapid decline is cited as evidence against theories of fertility transition that revolve around reduction in the demand for children. Aside from reducing birth control costs significantly, improvements in access to birth control services lead to acceleration of fertility decline. Finally, the key determinants of the pace of fertility decline are emphasized in detail. These include: 1) the pace of social and economic change; 2) the pace of change in economic aspirations and expectations; 3) the pace of improvement in the provision of birth control services; 4) and the pace of reduction in the moral and social costs of birth control.
Jakarta, Indonesia, National Family Planning Coordinating Board [BKKBN], 2000. 13 p. (Technical Report Series Monograph No. 98)This paper quantifies the effects of certain demographic factors in fertility decline in Indonesia during the periods of 1971-80, 1980-90, and 1990-97. Using the UN standardization approach, the role of the three main demographic components such as the age structure; marital status; and marital fertility is assessed in the decline of the crude birth rate and general fertility rate. Specific age groups are also identified that are responsible for individual contributions of each of the above factors to the decline in fertility. Overall, the findings revealed that among the three components considered, marital fertility seemed to play the most important role in fertility decline during that period. The marital status component contributed less than marital fertility, while age structure had an offsetting effect on the decline in fertility, except for the period 1990-97, in which the age structure was the second biggest contributor. The biggest contribution of marital fertility came from the age groups 20-24 and 25-29, which may reflect the postponement of age at first marriage.