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    275242

    Fertility down, but population decline still not in sight.

    Haub C

    Washington, D.C., Population Reference Bureau [PRB], 2002 May-Jun. [3] p.

    A March meeting of demographers at the United Nations captured headlines proclaiming "Population Decline in Sight," "Shrinking World," and "Population Boom a Bust." Although more attention to population trends is welcome news, the media's focus on a single aspect of the UN's deliberations produced stories at odds with what many participants took away from the meeting. What happened at the Expert Group Meeting on Completing the Fertility Transition, the third in a series on future fertility trends, was that population experts endorsed a proposal by the UN Population Division to accommodate fertility levels below the two-child- per-couple replacement level in the division's 2002 revision of its world population estimates and projections. Endorsement came after examination of the fertility prospects for a large group of less developed countries, those with a total fertility rate less than 5 children per woman, but more than 2.1, or the "intermediate-fertility" countries. This group includes Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, and Vietnam. This step means the UN will consider fine-tuning its assumptions. It is also considering projecting to 2075. (excerpt)
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