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Washington, D.C., World Bank, Human Development Network, 2007 Apr.  p. (HNP Discussion Paper)The objective of this paper is to discuss some obstacles and opportunities presented by population processes in order to prioritize areas for investment and analytical work as background information for the 2007 HNP Sector Strategy. Within HNP, two areas fall within population: (1) reproductive, maternal, and sexual health issues, and the health services that address them; and (2) levels and trends in births, deaths, and migration that determine population growth and age structure. Many of the aspects of delivery of sexual and reproductive health services are addressed in the overall sector strategy. This paper, therefore, focuses on the determinants and consequences of demographic change, and on policies and interventions that pertain to fertility and family planning. Fertility has declined in most of the low- and middle-income countries, with TFRs converging toward replacement level, except in 35 countries, mainly in Sub-Saharan Africa, where a broad-based decline in fertility has not occurred. As the priorities of donors and development agencies have shifted toward other issues, and global funds and initiatives have largely bypassed funding of family planning, less attention is being focused on the consequences of high fertility. Reproductive health is conspicuously absent from the MDGs, and assistance to countries to meet the demand for family planning and related services is insufficient. The need for Bank engagement in population issues pertains to economic growth and poverty reduction, as well as inequities in terms of the impact of high fertility on the poor and other vulnerable groups. Evidence indicates that large family size reduces household spending per child, possibly with adverse effects on girls, and the health of mothers and children are affected by parity and birth intervals. Equity considerations remain central to the Bank's work as poor people are less likely to have access to family planning and other reproductive health services. Other vulnerable groups that are less likely to be served by reproductive health services include adolescents and rural populations. Additionally, improved education for girls, equal opportunities for women in society, and a reduction of the proportion of households living below the poverty line are necessary elements of a strategy to achieve sustainable reductions in fertility. The Bank has a comparative advantage to address these issues at the highest levels of country policy setting, and its involvement in many sectors can produce synergies that will allow faster progress than a more narrow focus on family planning services. (author's)
Washington, D.C., World Bank, 1986 Aug. x, 102 p.This report provides a comprehensive assessment of the magnitude and underlying causes of Africa's rapid population growth and suggests a framework to help African leaders design policies to address this problem. The report has 3 themes. The 1st theme is that rapid population growth in Africa is slowing economic development and reducing the possibility of raising living standards. Africa's population growth rate, the highest in the world, has accelerated from an average of 2.8%/year in 1970-82 to 3.1%/year in 1985. Population growth is expected to continue to rise for at least another 5-10 years. In addition to undermining economic growth and per capita income growth, the population explosion implies higher child and maternal morbidity and mortality, further degradation of the natural environment, constraints on expanding education and health care services, and falling wages. A comprehensive population policy in African countries must include efforts both to slow this growth and to cope with its consequences. A 2nd theme is one of cautious hope arising from recent indications of a change in ideas and behavior regarding fertility. More and more African governments are expressing alarm about population growth and are supporting family planning measures. Improvements in women's status, especially in female education, are occurring and can be expected to have a fertility reducing effect. Increased availability and accessibility of family planning services could raise Africa's contraceptive prevalence rate from its current level of 3-4% to 25% in the next decade. The 3rd theme is that strategic reorientation of the direction and nature of government involvement in the area of population policy is required. Although governments should not seek to be the only provider of family planning services, they must take the lead in generating a climate of legitimacy for family planning. An increase in external assistance will be necessary if family planning is to become a realistic option for Africans.
In: Aspects of population change and development in some African and Asian countries. Cairo, Egypt, Cairo Demographic Centre, 1984. 43-56. (CDC Research Monograph Series no. 9)This paper examines the relationship between economic development and demographic change in the 13 states of the Economic Commission for West Asia (ECWA) region. Demographic variables considered include per capita income, proportion urban, proportion in urban areas with over 100,000 inhabitants, literacy among those over 15 years, and literacy among women. Unweighted rankings on these variables were added to produce a development ranking or general development index. Then this index was used to investigate the relationship between development and individual scores and rankings for various demographic indices. The development index exhibited a rough fit with the mortality indices, especially life expectancy at birth. Mortality decline appears to be most closely related to rise in income. At the same income level, countries that have experienced substantial social change tend to exhibit the lowest mortality, presumably because of a loosening in family role patterns. In contrast, the relationship between development and fertility measures seemed to be almost random. A far closer correlation was noted between the former and the general development index. It is concluded that economic development alone will not reduce fertility. Needed are 2 changes: 1) profound social change in the family and in women's status, achievable through increases in female education, and 2) government family planning programs to ensure access to contraception.
In: Demographic trends in the European region: health and social implications, edited by Alan D. Lopez and Robert L. Cliquet. Copenhagen, World Health Organization, Regional Office for Europe, 1984. 5-67. (WHO Regional Publications, European Series No. 17; Project RMI/79/P05)This chapter presents an overview of recent demographic trends in Europe and discusses the implications of these trends for health and social services. The discussion is based on reports received from 15 of the 33 Member States of the European Region of the World Health Organization. The components of demographic change analyzed included population growth and structure, family formation, fertility, mortality, and population movement. Increases in the number and proportion of the elderly were noted and the traditional excess of births over deaths is expected to change in future years. Population aging is expected to continue to be a principal concern for the social services sector. The increasing emphasis on caring for rather than attempting to cure chronic illnesses among the aged suggests a need for more nursing homes and home-help services. Anticipation of future morbidity and mortality patterns implies a need to focus on specific risk groups, e.g. migrants, adult males, and those from lower socioeconomic groupings. With regard to fertility, adolescent sexual activity and the low use levels of contraception among teenagers comprise areas where greater service provision is necessary. In addition, there is a need for more vocational training for women, improved child care facilities, and full-time employment opportunities better suited to the needs of workers with dependent children. As a result of smaller families, increased divorce rates, the discrepancy between male and female survival, and greater regional mobility, markedly higher numbers of single individuals can be expected. Rapidly evolving changes in family formation, social norms, and underlying demographic trends will continue to alter European societies in the years ahead. The interrelationships between health and demographic phenomenon must continue to be probed to form a basis for future health and social planning.
Population and Development Review. 1984 Mar; 10(1):103-26.This paper presents some of the results of projections prepared by the World Bank in 1983 for all the world's countries. The projections (presented against a background of recent demographic trends as estimated by the United Nations) trace the approach of each individual country to a stationary state. Implications of the underlying fertility and mortality assumptions are shown mainly in terms of time trends of total population to the year 2100, annual rates of growth, and absolute annual increments. These indices are shown for the largest individual countries, for world regions, and for country groupings according to economic criteria. The detailed predictive performance of such projections is likely to be poor but the projections indicate orders of magnitude characterizing certain aggregate demographic phenomena whose occurrence is highly probable and set clearly interpretable reference points useful in discussing contemporary issues of policy. (author's)
New York, Pergamon, 1984. 240 p.This book, a sequel to "International Population Assistance: The First Decade," characterizes the work of the UN Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA) with the developing countries up to 1984, relating these experiences to the issues before the 1984 International Conference on Population. The 1st chapter provides an overview of the significant developments in population up to the 1984 International Conference on Population. The next 7 chapters discuss the following main issues before the Conference and generally reflect the arrangement of the document to be brought before the Conference concerning recommendations for further implementation of the World Population Plan of Action: fertility, status of women and the family; morbidity and mortality; population distribution, internal and international migration; population growth and structure; promotion of knowledge and implementation of policies and programs; international cooperation and the role of UNFPA; and the year 2000 and beyond. Within each of these chapters, excerpts have been arranged in an analytic order, with the aim of facilitating the flow of arguments presented. Appendices contain the 5 "State of World Population Reports" issued from 1980-84 and 7 Rafael M. Salas statements which, primarily due to their focus on the population issues of particular importance to the major regions of the globe, are reproduced in their entirety. This volume reflects the process of population policymaking of the UNFPA with the developing countries in support of their population programs in the past 15 years. These policies were sanctioned and validated, both nationally by the countries themselves and globally by UN deliberative bodies and conferences. The experience of UNFPA in policy formulation indicates that an effective population policy must have its proper time perspective and must be scientifically determined in its component elements, normative and applicable at different levels, multisectoral in its emphasis, and measurable in its impact and consequenes.
Draper Fund Report. 1984 Jun; (13):1-3.The UN International Conference on Population to be held in Mexico City in August 1984, responding to an unprecedented upsurge of interest in population over the last decade, offers developed and developing countries the opportunity to assess current and likely future population trends, to comment on programs and progress during the past 10 years, and to determine desirable future directions. More developing countries are reporting diminished declining fertility and family size in countries of widely varying ethnic, social, and economic makeup. Although it is likely that the future will bring a steadily declining rate of world population growth, culminating in stability, present trends indicate that it will take more than a century for world population to stabilize. Meanwhile growth continues. The developing world's annual average birthrate from1975-80 was twice as high as the developed world's. Also there are large areas, much of Latin America and most of Africa, where growth rates continue very high. Other areas, such as parts of Asia, do not follow the general declining trend despite trend despite, in some instances, a long history of population programs. Interest in population programs and demand for resources to support them are growing, but the population dimension is sometimes unrecognized in development planning. The experience of the last decade illustrates that population assistance can make a uniquely valuable contribution to national development when it is given in accord with national policies, is appropriate to local conditions and needs, and is delivered where it can make the most impact. Substantial evidence exists that women in the developing world undertand the risks of repeated pregrancy and would like to take steps to reduce them. It is evident that providers of family planning services are not yet sufficiently responsive to women's own perceptions of their needs and that the social and economic conditions which make family planning a reasonable option do not yet exist. Influxes of immigrants, short and long term, legal and illegal, create particular problems for receiving countries. It is important for sending countries to know what effect the absence of their nationals is having on the domestic economy and essential for receiving countries to consider the protection of the human rights of international migrants, including settlers, workers, undocumented migrants, and refugees. It is a particular responsibility of the industrialized nations to make careful use of limited resources and to ensure that their comsumption contributes to the overall balance of the environment. In most developing countries infectious and parasitic disease remains the primary cause of death, particularly among the young. Much of this toll is preventable. The International Conference on Population provides an opportunity to establish in broad terms the conditions and directions of future cooperation.
[Unpublished] 1983 Dec 9. 410 p. (IESA/P/WP.82)This report is the 4th in a series prepared pursuant to a recommendation of the World Population Plan of Action that the monitoring of population trends and policies should be undertaken continuously as a specialized activity of the UN and reviewed biennially. Part 1 of the report covers world and regional population growth, fertility, nuptiality, mortality, age structure, international migration, and urbanization. Also included is an overview of the most significant demographic events occurring since 1974. Although the world population is projected to increase from the 1980 level of 4.5 billion to 6.1 billion in 2000 and 8.2 billion in 2025, the growth rate is expected to continue to decline from 1.7% in 1980 to 1.4% in 2000 and 0.9% in 2025. The rate of growth is 2.1% in the developing regions compared with 0.6% in developed regions; however, this gap is expected to be narrowed in the future. The share of the world's population represented by developing countries is projected to increase from the current level of 75% to 79% in 2000 and 85% in 2025. Fertility declined 22% between 1970-75 and 1980-85 worldwide and 26% in the developing regions alone, due mainly to the drastic reduction of fertility in China (54%). 26 other countries with population exceeding 1 billion achieved fertility declines over 20%, but no significant decline has taken place in Africa or certain subregions of Latin America and Southern Asia. In the developed countries, fertility stabilized at very low levels in the 1970s and in some cases a slight recovery was noted in the 1980s. There is a considerable gap in life expectancy between developed countries (73 years) and developing countries (57 years), but by 2000, this statistic is expected to stand at 75.4 years and 63.5 years, respectively. As a consequence of the rapid decline in fertility, the age structure of the world population has been modified, with a decrease in those aged 15 years and under and an increase in those aged 65 years and over. There is an increasing trend of concentration of the population of developing countries in the large metropolitan areas, while a pattern of deconcentration out of the large metropolitan centers is emerging in developed countries.