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  1. 1
    054750

    The geography of fertility in the ESCAP region.

    United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP]

    Bangkok, Thailand, United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP], 1988 Aug. iii, 41, [31] p. (Asian Population Studies Series No. 62-K)

    The goal of this Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) project was to help family planning administrators and other development planners to pinpoint areas of high and low fertility through reference to a series of maps. Maps have the advantage of being able to summarize an enormous number of items of information in an easily comprehendable manner, including not only the levels and trends of fertility of each area, but also the contrasts between areas and groups of areas at 1 time and over time. The project began when data from the 1980 censuses became available and focused on 10 countries: Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, the Philippines, Republic of Korea, Sri Lanka, and Thailand. The maps show in detail, in some cases at the level of very small administrative areas, levels and trends of fertility during the 1970s and where possible the 1960s. The 10 countries participating in this study had to develop new methodological techniques to estimate the fertility of small areas from census data. In most cases, fertility was estimated from the age-sex distribution and children ever born classified by age of mother. Central to the analysis was the concept of reverse survival, which assumes that the number of births can be estimated from the census counts of children and an estimate of the number of children who would have been enumerated in the census if they had not died. The major lesson of this study was that maps of fertility can be drawn with sufficient accuracy to show patterns that cannot be identified easily through any other approach.
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  2. 2
    038633

    Population growth and policies in sub-Saharan Africa.

    World Bank

    Washington, D.C., World Bank, 1986 Aug. x, 102 p.

    This report provides a comprehensive assessment of the magnitude and underlying causes of Africa's rapid population growth and suggests a framework to help African leaders design policies to address this problem. The report has 3 themes. The 1st theme is that rapid population growth in Africa is slowing economic development and reducing the possibility of raising living standards. Africa's population growth rate, the highest in the world, has accelerated from an average of 2.8%/year in 1970-82 to 3.1%/year in 1985. Population growth is expected to continue to rise for at least another 5-10 years. In addition to undermining economic growth and per capita income growth, the population explosion implies higher child and maternal morbidity and mortality, further degradation of the natural environment, constraints on expanding education and health care services, and falling wages. A comprehensive population policy in African countries must include efforts both to slow this growth and to cope with its consequences. A 2nd theme is one of cautious hope arising from recent indications of a change in ideas and behavior regarding fertility. More and more African governments are expressing alarm about population growth and are supporting family planning measures. Improvements in women's status, especially in female education, are occurring and can be expected to have a fertility reducing effect. Increased availability and accessibility of family planning services could raise Africa's contraceptive prevalence rate from its current level of 3-4% to 25% in the next decade. The 3rd theme is that strategic reorientation of the direction and nature of government involvement in the area of population policy is required. Although governments should not seek to be the only provider of family planning services, they must take the lead in generating a climate of legitimacy for family planning. An increase in external assistance will be necessary if family planning is to become a realistic option for Africans.
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  3. 3
    026165

    Reflections on population.

    Salas RM

    New York, Pergamon, 1984. 240 p.

    This book, a sequel to "International Population Assistance: The First Decade," characterizes the work of the UN Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA) with the developing countries up to 1984, relating these experiences to the issues before the 1984 International Conference on Population. The 1st chapter provides an overview of the significant developments in population up to the 1984 International Conference on Population. The next 7 chapters discuss the following main issues before the Conference and generally reflect the arrangement of the document to be brought before the Conference concerning recommendations for further implementation of the World Population Plan of Action: fertility, status of women and the family; morbidity and mortality; population distribution, internal and international migration; population growth and structure; promotion of knowledge and implementation of policies and programs; international cooperation and the role of UNFPA; and the year 2000 and beyond. Within each of these chapters, excerpts have been arranged in an analytic order, with the aim of facilitating the flow of arguments presented. Appendices contain the 5 "State of World Population Reports" issued from 1980-84 and 7 Rafael M. Salas statements which, primarily due to their focus on the population issues of particular importance to the major regions of the globe, are reproduced in their entirety. This volume reflects the process of population policymaking of the UNFPA with the developing countries in support of their population programs in the past 15 years. These policies were sanctioned and validated, both nationally by the countries themselves and globally by UN deliberative bodies and conferences. The experience of UNFPA in policy formulation indicates that an effective population policy must have its proper time perspective and must be scientifically determined in its component elements, normative and applicable at different levels, multisectoral in its emphasis, and measurable in its impact and consequenes.
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  4. 4
    025567

    The United Nations Conference on Population.

    Salas RM

    Draper Fund Report. 1984 Jun; (13):1-3.

    The UN International Conference on Population to be held in Mexico City in August 1984, responding to an unprecedented upsurge of interest in population over the last decade, offers developed and developing countries the opportunity to assess current and likely future population trends, to comment on programs and progress during the past 10 years, and to determine desirable future directions. More developing countries are reporting diminished declining fertility and family size in countries of widely varying ethnic, social, and economic makeup. Although it is likely that the future will bring a steadily declining rate of world population growth, culminating in stability, present trends indicate that it will take more than a century for world population to stabilize. Meanwhile growth continues. The developing world's annual average birthrate from1975-80 was twice as high as the developed world's. Also there are large areas, much of Latin America and most of Africa, where growth rates continue very high. Other areas, such as parts of Asia, do not follow the general declining trend despite trend despite, in some instances, a long history of population programs. Interest in population programs and demand for resources to support them are growing, but the population dimension is sometimes unrecognized in development planning. The experience of the last decade illustrates that population assistance can make a uniquely valuable contribution to national development when it is given in accord with national policies, is appropriate to local conditions and needs, and is delivered where it can make the most impact. Substantial evidence exists that women in the developing world undertand the risks of repeated pregrancy and would like to take steps to reduce them. It is evident that providers of family planning services are not yet sufficiently responsive to women's own perceptions of their needs and that the social and economic conditions which make family planning a reasonable option do not yet exist. Influxes of immigrants, short and long term, legal and illegal, create particular problems for receiving countries. It is important for sending countries to know what effect the absence of their nationals is having on the domestic economy and essential for receiving countries to consider the protection of the human rights of international migrants, including settlers, workers, undocumented migrants, and refugees. It is a particular responsibility of the industrialized nations to make careful use of limited resources and to ensure that their comsumption contributes to the overall balance of the environment. In most developing countries infectious and parasitic disease remains the primary cause of death, particularly among the young. Much of this toll is preventable. The International Conference on Population provides an opportunity to establish in broad terms the conditions and directions of future cooperation.
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  5. 5
    023757

    Levels, trends and prospects of fertility in developing countries.

    Mauldin WP

    [Unpublished] 1983. Presented at the 1983 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, Pittsburgh, April 14-16. 35 p.

    In 1950 fertility levels in the developing countries were high. The crude birthrates (CBRs) were about 47 in Africa, 42 in the Americas, and 41 in Asia and the Pacific. In Asia and the Pacific, several countries are thought to have had fertility rates between 35-40/1000. In Latin America, Argentina, Cuba, and Uruguay the birthrates were less than 30/1000 and between 30-35/1000 in Chile and Jamaica. No country in Africa was reported to have had a rate below 40 with the sole exception of Gabon which is reported to have had a crude birthrate between 30-35/1000, not only in 1950 but this remained unchanged up to 1980. By 1965 there had been a little change in several countries but virtually no change at all in Africa. During the next 15 years the situation changed markedly in Asia and the Pacific with the crude birthrate decreasing by almost 1/4, from a little more than 39 to 30. There was a similar but slightly smaller decrease in Latin America, a decrease from 40-32, or about 20%. In Africa there was virtually no change. Many scholars and laypersons concerned about the rapid rate of population growth have expressed the view that population policies have been slow to develop. By 1980, 39 countries with a population of 2.6 billion or 78% of the population of all developing countries had adopted official policies to reduce the population growth rate. Many of these policies are without substance but a fairly large number of the countries have developed substantial population programs, as well as policies to reduce rates of population growth. There were an additional 33 countries with a total population of 554 million that had no demographic policy to reduce rates of population growth but nonetheless gave officcial support to family planning activities. Prior to 1960 only India had a population policy to reduce rates of population growth but during the 1960-64 period 4 additional countries in Asia and the Pacific adopted such policies, namely China, Korea, Pakistan, and Fiji. It was not until 1965 and after that African and Latin American countries adopted such policies. The annual number of family planning acceptors in large scale programs increased from a few tens of thousands around 1960 to about 2 1/2 million in 1965 and to approximately 25 million in 1980, excluding China, for which quantitative data are less readily available. In some countries contraceptive prevalence rates remain low after many years of a national family planning program, e.g., Ghana, Kenya, Morocco, and Bangladesh. Various macroeconomic studies, using countries as units, have found that both socioeconomic and population programs have important effects on fertility decline. UN projections (medium variant) to 2000-2005 assume a continuation of fertility decline in less developed countries (LDCs), including the start of decline in black Africa and Arab countries. Even if the UN projections are consistent with the realities of the years ahead, there is enormous population growth ahead.
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