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In: Population strategy in Asia. The Second Asian Population Conference, Tokyo, November 1972. Report, declaration and selected papers, [compiled by] United Nations Economic Commission for Asia and the Far East [ECAFE]. Bangkok, Thailand, ECAFE, 1974 Jun. 69-130. (Asian Population Study Series No. 28; E/C.N.11/1152)The Economic Commission for Asia and the Far East (ECAFE) region currently includes 31 countries and territories. Since the first Asian Population Conference in 1963, there has been greater recognition of the adverse effects of rapid population growth on national development and on the standard of living of individual family units. By the year 2000, the population of the ECAFE region is expected to almost equal the total for the world in 1970, despite significantly slowed population growth in the East Asia subregion. During the periods 1900-1950 and 1950-2000, the average annual rates of growth for the population of the ECAFE region are estimated at 0.7% and 2.0%, respectively. The 4 largest countries in the region--China, India, Indonesia, and Japan--together hold 78% of the region's total population. Even in the countries where there has been a decline in fertility, it has not been sufficient to offset the effects of corresponding declines in mortality. The 1950 population of each country, except for China and Japan, will at least double itself by the year 2000. The number of preschool-aged children is expected to reach 356 million by 1980 and there will be 609 million school-aged children. Children ages 0-14 years currently comprise about 40% of the total population of the ECAFE region, producing a high dependency burden. The female population in the reproductive age group will grow from 474 million in 1970 to 593 million in 1980, implying that the fertility potential of the region will be accelerated. In addition, the population of persons aged 60 years and over will increase from 117 million in 1970 to 158 million in 1980, requiring significant investments in health facilities and social security. The urban population in the region is expected to increase from 25% in 1970 to 45% by 2000. Despite widespread awareness of the interrelation of population and development, no common approach among demographers, family plannes, and economic plannes has emerged.
In: Aspects of population change and development in some African and Asian countries. Cairo, Egypt, Cairo Demographic Centre, 1984. 43-56. (CDC Research Monograph Series no. 9)This paper examines the relationship between economic development and demographic change in the 13 states of the Economic Commission for West Asia (ECWA) region. Demographic variables considered include per capita income, proportion urban, proportion in urban areas with over 100,000 inhabitants, literacy among those over 15 years, and literacy among women. Unweighted rankings on these variables were added to produce a development ranking or general development index. Then this index was used to investigate the relationship between development and individual scores and rankings for various demographic indices. The development index exhibited a rough fit with the mortality indices, especially life expectancy at birth. Mortality decline appears to be most closely related to rise in income. At the same income level, countries that have experienced substantial social change tend to exhibit the lowest mortality, presumably because of a loosening in family role patterns. In contrast, the relationship between development and fertility measures seemed to be almost random. A far closer correlation was noted between the former and the general development index. It is concluded that economic development alone will not reduce fertility. Needed are 2 changes: 1) profound social change in the family and in women's status, achievable through increases in female education, and 2) government family planning programs to ensure access to contraception.
In: Demographic trends in the European region: health and social implications, edited by Alan D. Lopez and Robert L. Cliquet. Copenhagen, World Health Organization, Regional Office for Europe, 1984. 5-67. (WHO Regional Publications, European Series No. 17; Project RMI/79/P05)This chapter presents an overview of recent demographic trends in Europe and discusses the implications of these trends for health and social services. The discussion is based on reports received from 15 of the 33 Member States of the European Region of the World Health Organization. The components of demographic change analyzed included population growth and structure, family formation, fertility, mortality, and population movement. Increases in the number and proportion of the elderly were noted and the traditional excess of births over deaths is expected to change in future years. Population aging is expected to continue to be a principal concern for the social services sector. The increasing emphasis on caring for rather than attempting to cure chronic illnesses among the aged suggests a need for more nursing homes and home-help services. Anticipation of future morbidity and mortality patterns implies a need to focus on specific risk groups, e.g. migrants, adult males, and those from lower socioeconomic groupings. With regard to fertility, adolescent sexual activity and the low use levels of contraception among teenagers comprise areas where greater service provision is necessary. In addition, there is a need for more vocational training for women, improved child care facilities, and full-time employment opportunities better suited to the needs of workers with dependent children. As a result of smaller families, increased divorce rates, the discrepancy between male and female survival, and greater regional mobility, markedly higher numbers of single individuals can be expected. Rapidly evolving changes in family formation, social norms, and underlying demographic trends will continue to alter European societies in the years ahead. The interrelationships between health and demographic phenomenon must continue to be probed to form a basis for future health and social planning.
Population and Development Review. 1984 Mar; 10(1):103-26.This paper presents some of the results of projections prepared by the World Bank in 1983 for all the world's countries. The projections (presented against a background of recent demographic trends as estimated by the United Nations) trace the approach of each individual country to a stationary state. Implications of the underlying fertility and mortality assumptions are shown mainly in terms of time trends of total population to the year 2100, annual rates of growth, and absolute annual increments. These indices are shown for the largest individual countries, for world regions, and for country groupings according to economic criteria. The detailed predictive performance of such projections is likely to be poor but the projections indicate orders of magnitude characterizing certain aggregate demographic phenomena whose occurrence is highly probable and set clearly interpretable reference points useful in discussing contemporary issues of policy. (author's)
[Unpublished] 1983 Dec 9. 410 p. (IESA/P/WP.82)This report is the 4th in a series prepared pursuant to a recommendation of the World Population Plan of Action that the monitoring of population trends and policies should be undertaken continuously as a specialized activity of the UN and reviewed biennially. Part 1 of the report covers world and regional population growth, fertility, nuptiality, mortality, age structure, international migration, and urbanization. Also included is an overview of the most significant demographic events occurring since 1974. Although the world population is projected to increase from the 1980 level of 4.5 billion to 6.1 billion in 2000 and 8.2 billion in 2025, the growth rate is expected to continue to decline from 1.7% in 1980 to 1.4% in 2000 and 0.9% in 2025. The rate of growth is 2.1% in the developing regions compared with 0.6% in developed regions; however, this gap is expected to be narrowed in the future. The share of the world's population represented by developing countries is projected to increase from the current level of 75% to 79% in 2000 and 85% in 2025. Fertility declined 22% between 1970-75 and 1980-85 worldwide and 26% in the developing regions alone, due mainly to the drastic reduction of fertility in China (54%). 26 other countries with population exceeding 1 billion achieved fertility declines over 20%, but no significant decline has taken place in Africa or certain subregions of Latin America and Southern Asia. In the developed countries, fertility stabilized at very low levels in the 1970s and in some cases a slight recovery was noted in the 1980s. There is a considerable gap in life expectancy between developed countries (73 years) and developing countries (57 years), but by 2000, this statistic is expected to stand at 75.4 years and 63.5 years, respectively. As a consequence of the rapid decline in fertility, the age structure of the world population has been modified, with a decrease in those aged 15 years and under and an increase in those aged 65 years and over. There is an increasing trend of concentration of the population of developing countries in the large metropolitan areas, while a pattern of deconcentration out of the large metropolitan centers is emerging in developed countries.