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  1. 1
    054750

    The geography of fertility in the ESCAP region.

    United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP]

    Bangkok, Thailand, United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP], 1988 Aug. iii, 41, [31] p. (Asian Population Studies Series No. 62-K)

    The goal of this Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) project was to help family planning administrators and other development planners to pinpoint areas of high and low fertility through reference to a series of maps. Maps have the advantage of being able to summarize an enormous number of items of information in an easily comprehendable manner, including not only the levels and trends of fertility of each area, but also the contrasts between areas and groups of areas at 1 time and over time. The project began when data from the 1980 censuses became available and focused on 10 countries: Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, the Philippines, Republic of Korea, Sri Lanka, and Thailand. The maps show in detail, in some cases at the level of very small administrative areas, levels and trends of fertility during the 1970s and where possible the 1960s. The 10 countries participating in this study had to develop new methodological techniques to estimate the fertility of small areas from census data. In most cases, fertility was estimated from the age-sex distribution and children ever born classified by age of mother. Central to the analysis was the concept of reverse survival, which assumes that the number of births can be estimated from the census counts of children and an estimate of the number of children who would have been enumerated in the census if they had not died. The major lesson of this study was that maps of fertility can be drawn with sufficient accuracy to show patterns that cannot be identified easily through any other approach.
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  2. 2
    021441
    Peer Reviewed

    A perspective on long-term population growth.

    Demeny PG

    Population and Development Review. 1984 Mar; 10(1):103-26.

    This paper presents some of the results of projections prepared by the World Bank in 1983 for all the world's countries. The projections (presented against a background of recent demographic trends as estimated by the United Nations) trace the approach of each individual country to a stationary state. Implications of the underlying fertility and mortality assumptions are shown mainly in terms of time trends of total population to the year 2100, annual rates of growth, and absolute annual increments. These indices are shown for the largest individual countries, for world regions, and for country groupings according to economic criteria. The detailed predictive performance of such projections is likely to be poor but the projections indicate orders of magnitude characterizing certain aggregate demographic phenomena whose occurrence is highly probable and set clearly interpretable reference points useful in discussing contemporary issues of policy. (author's)
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