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Fertility trends and prospects in East and South-East Asian countries and implications for policies and programmes.
POPULATION RESEARCH LEADS. 1991; (39):1-17.Fertility trends and prospects for east and southeast Asian countries including cities in China, Taiwan, the Republic of Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Myanmar, and Viet Nam are described. Additional discussion focuses on family planning methods, marriage patterns, fertility prospects, theories of fertility change, and policy implications for the labor supply, labor migrants, increased female participation in the labor force (LFP), human resource development, and social policy measures. Figures provide graphic descriptions of total fertility rates (TFRS) for 12 countries/areas for selected years between 1960-90, TFR for selected Chinese cities between 1955-90, the % of currently married women 15-44 years using contraception by main method for selected years and for 10 countries, actual and projected TFR and annual growth rates between 1990-2020 for Korea and Indonesia. It is noted that the 1st southeast Asian country to experience a revolution in reproductive behavior was Japan with below replacement level fertility by 1960. This was accomplished by massive postponement in age at marriage and rapid reduction in marital fertility. Fertility was controlled primarily through abortion. Thereafter every southeast Asian country experienced fertility declines. Hong Kong, Penang, Shanghai, Singapore, and Taipei and declining fertility before the major thrust of family planning (FP). Chinese fertility declines were reflected in the 1970s to the early 1980s and paralleled the longer, later, fewer campaign and policy which set ambitious targets which were strictly enforced at all levels of administration. Korea and Taiwan's declines were a result of individual decision making to restrict fertility which was encouraged by private and government programs to provide FP information and subsidized services. The context was social and economic change. Indonesia's almost replacement level fertility was achieved dramatically through the 1970s and 1980s by institutional change in ideas about families and schooling and material welfare, changes in the structure of governance, and changes in state ideology. Thailand's decline began in the 1960s and is attributed to social change, change in cultural setting, demand, and FP efforts. Modest declines characterize Malaysia and the Philippines, which have been surpassed by Myanmar and Viet Nam. The policy implications are that there are shortages in labor supply which can be remedied with labor migration, pronatalist policy, more capital intensive industries, and preparation for a changing economy.
[Unpublished] 1983 Dec 9. 410 p. (IESA/P/WP.82)This report is the 4th in a series prepared pursuant to a recommendation of the World Population Plan of Action that the monitoring of population trends and policies should be undertaken continuously as a specialized activity of the UN and reviewed biennially. Part 1 of the report covers world and regional population growth, fertility, nuptiality, mortality, age structure, international migration, and urbanization. Also included is an overview of the most significant demographic events occurring since 1974. Although the world population is projected to increase from the 1980 level of 4.5 billion to 6.1 billion in 2000 and 8.2 billion in 2025, the growth rate is expected to continue to decline from 1.7% in 1980 to 1.4% in 2000 and 0.9% in 2025. The rate of growth is 2.1% in the developing regions compared with 0.6% in developed regions; however, this gap is expected to be narrowed in the future. The share of the world's population represented by developing countries is projected to increase from the current level of 75% to 79% in 2000 and 85% in 2025. Fertility declined 22% between 1970-75 and 1980-85 worldwide and 26% in the developing regions alone, due mainly to the drastic reduction of fertility in China (54%). 26 other countries with population exceeding 1 billion achieved fertility declines over 20%, but no significant decline has taken place in Africa or certain subregions of Latin America and Southern Asia. In the developed countries, fertility stabilized at very low levels in the 1970s and in some cases a slight recovery was noted in the 1980s. There is a considerable gap in life expectancy between developed countries (73 years) and developing countries (57 years), but by 2000, this statistic is expected to stand at 75.4 years and 63.5 years, respectively. As a consequence of the rapid decline in fertility, the age structure of the world population has been modified, with a decrease in those aged 15 years and under and an increase in those aged 65 years and over. There is an increasing trend of concentration of the population of developing countries in the large metropolitan areas, while a pattern of deconcentration out of the large metropolitan centers is emerging in developed countries.