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Washington, D.C., Population Reference Bureau [PRB], 2002 May-Jun.  p.A March meeting of demographers at the United Nations captured headlines proclaiming "Population Decline in Sight," "Shrinking World," and "Population Boom a Bust." Although more attention to population trends is welcome news, the media's focus on a single aspect of the UN's deliberations produced stories at odds with what many participants took away from the meeting. What happened at the Expert Group Meeting on Completing the Fertility Transition, the third in a series on future fertility trends, was that population experts endorsed a proposal by the UN Population Division to accommodate fertility levels below the two-child- per-couple replacement level in the division's 2002 revision of its world population estimates and projections. Endorsement came after examination of the fertility prospects for a large group of less developed countries, those with a total fertility rate less than 5 children per woman, but more than 2.1, or the "intermediate-fertility" countries. This group includes Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, and Vietnam. This step means the UN will consider fine-tuning its assumptions. It is also considering projecting to 2075. (excerpt)
[National Conference on Fertility and Family, Oaxaca de Juarez, Oaxaca, April 13, 1984] Reunion Nacional sobre Fecundidad y Familia, Oaxaca de Juarez, Oax., a 13 de abril de 1984.
Mexico City, Mexico, CONAPO, 1984. 228 p.Proceedings of a national conferences on the family and fertility held in April 1984 as part of Mexico's preparation for the August 1984 World Population Conference are presented. 2 opening addresses outline the background and objectives of the conference, while the 1st paper details recommendations of a 1983 meeting on fertility and the family held in New Delhi. The main body of the report presents 2 conference papers and commentary. The 1st paper, on fertility, contraception, and family planning, discusses fertility policies; levels and trends of fertility in Mexico from 1900 to 1970 and since 1970; socioeconomic and geographic fertility differentials; the relationship of mortality and fertility; contraception and the role of intermediate variables; the history and achievements of family planning activities of the private and public sectors in Mexico; and the relationship between contraception, fertility, and family planning. The 2nd paper, on the family as a sociodemographic unit and subject of population policies, discusses the World Population Plan of Action and current sociodemographic policies in Mexico; the family as a sociodemographic unit, including the implications of formal demography for the study of family phenomena, the dynamic sociodemographic composition of the family unit, and the family as a mediating unit for internal and external social actions; and steps in development of a possible population policy in which families would be considered an active part, including ideologic views of the family as a passive object of policy and possible mobilization strategies for families in population policies. The conference as a whole concluded by reaffirming the guiding principles of Mexico's population policy, including the right of couples to decide the number and spacing of their children, the fundamental objective of the population policy of elevating the socioeconomic and cultural level of the population, the view of population policy as an essential element of development policy, and the right of women to full participation. Greater efforts were believed to be necessary in such priority areas as integration of family planning programs with development planning and population policy, creation of methodologies for the analysis of families in their social contexts, development and application of contraceptive methodologies, promotion of male participation in family planning, coordination of federal and state family planning programs, and creation of sociodemographic information systems to ensure availability of more complete date on families in specific population sectors. The principles of the World Population Plan of Action were also reaffirmed.
In: United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division. Fertility and familiy. New York, New York, United Nations, 1984. 321-51. (International Conference on Population, 1984; Statements)This paper presents a conceptual model indicating some of the established and hypothesized links between a number of labor laws and policies, in particular International Labor Organization (ILO) conventions, divisions of labor and resources by sex and age, familial roles and fertility. Brielfy outlined are the content and goals of some of the ILO conventions and programms that have a bearing on the conditions widely thought to be related to fertility decline. These include improved status of relatively deprive groups, such as women and children, and individual access to training, employment and incomes. These changes are viewed in terms of their potential impact on family relations, including changing parental roles and costs of bearing and raising children in view of the impact of diminishing child labor, and the increasing availability of social security benefits. Another aspect is sexual equality, in particular the impact of equality in the occupational sphere on equality in the domestic sphere and the consequent effects on reproduction. In addition, the impacts of social and spatial mobility are indicated and the potential effects on role conflicts, individualism and lower fertility. A thrust of the paper is to emphasize the critical intervening nature of changing familial roles, which have been neglected, both in labor reports and related activities as well as in the documentation and policy-making related to fertility. Micro-evidence from a variety of cultural contexts shows how changes and differences in allocations of tasks and resources and status benefits between kin, parents and offspring, wives and husbands are associated with changes and differences in fertility-related aspirations and patterns of regulation. Finally, the discussion serves to underline the pervasive and profound nature of the potential impacts of divisions of labor and employment policies on fertility levels, demonstrating that changes in familial roles and relations are central to this process of linkage. Thus, the need is made apparent for more knowledge and understanding of the dynamics of change in this area at the micro-level and in a variety of cultural areas, if government policies and programms are to achieve their specific goals with respect both to employment and demographic policies.
Fertility and the family: highlights of the issues in the context of the World Population Plan of Action.
In: United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division. Fertility and family. New York, New York, United Nations, 1984. 45-73. (International Conference on Popualtion, 1984; Statements)This paper uses as its organizing principle 5 major themes which run through the sections of the 1974 World Population Plan of Action (WPPA) devoted to fertility and the family. The purpose of this paper it to assure that their discussion is comprehensive and that it reviews all the major research and policy concerns with respect to fertility and the family that have played an important role in the general debate about these issues since 1974. Summerized here are the contributions included in this volumen, as each deals with at least 1 of these issues. The 1st major theme focuses on fertility response to modernization as a facet of the interrelationship between population and development. Discussed are aspects of modernization leading to fertility increases, in particular the reduced incidence and shorter duration of breastfeeding, and those leading to fertility decline, namely the decline in the value of children as a source of labor and old-age support. Freedom of choice, information and education are the principal approaches within which childbearing decision making is discussed. Women's reproductive and economic activity during their life cycle, and the relationship of family types and functions to fertility levels and change are equally addressed. Finally, demographic goals and policy alternatives with respect to fertility change are discussed in terms of a number of policy options: family planning programs, economic incentives and disincentives and more global socioeconomic measures. Although primary attention is given to the problems and policies of developing countries, the special problems of certrain developed countries which view their fertility as too low are also considered. The issues raised in this paper are put forward as an aid to assist in the identification of emderging areas of policy concern and of fruitful new research directions.
In: United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division. Fertility and family. New York, New York, United Nations, 1984. 1-44. (International Conference on Population, 1984; Statements)This volume is comprised of the reports of the 1st of 4 Expert Group Meetings, scheduled in preparation for the 1984 International Conference on Population. Individuals and organizations attending this meeting are listed. The central task of the meeting was to examine critical, high-priority issues relevant to fertility and family and, on that basis, to make recommendations for action that would enhance the effectiveness of and compliance with the World Population Plan of Action, adopted in 1974 at Bucharest. The 1st item on the agenda dealt with ways in which modernization elements in the socio-cultural and economic patterns and institutions of societies alter reproduction. The 2nd topic of discussion was the relationship between family structure and fertility. The view adopted was that family structure could be influenced by a variety of factors that would have implications for fertility (e.g., delayed at marriage, improvements in education). The deliberations on factors influencing choice with respect to childbearing focused upon the complexity of decision making in matters of reproduction. In question, too, was a possible conflict between the acknowledged rights to freedom of choice in respect to childbearing and to the rights and goals of society, as well the acceptability of incentives and disincentives as measures introduced by governments to achieve social goals. The 4th item, reproductive and economic activity of women, was discussed from several perspectives: the amount of reproductive lifetime available to women for productive pursuits other than childbearing; the introduction of social support programs and income-generating opportunities. In the discussion of demographic goals and policy alternatives, the 5th item on the agenda, the policy options considered were family planning programs, incentives and desincentives, social and economic development, and marriage and divorce laws. Particular attention was given to the importance of local institutional settings for the achievement of government policy goals. The Expert Group's recommendations on population policy, family planning, the conditions of women, adolescent fertility, IEC, management and training, international cooperation and areas of research (demographic data, determinants of fertility, operational research and bio-medical) are included in this introduction. Finally, presented in the form of annexes are the agenda for the meeting, the list of documents and the texts of the opening statements.
New York, Pergamon, 1984. 240 p.This book, a sequel to "International Population Assistance: The First Decade," characterizes the work of the UN Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA) with the developing countries up to 1984, relating these experiences to the issues before the 1984 International Conference on Population. The 1st chapter provides an overview of the significant developments in population up to the 1984 International Conference on Population. The next 7 chapters discuss the following main issues before the Conference and generally reflect the arrangement of the document to be brought before the Conference concerning recommendations for further implementation of the World Population Plan of Action: fertility, status of women and the family; morbidity and mortality; population distribution, internal and international migration; population growth and structure; promotion of knowledge and implementation of policies and programs; international cooperation and the role of UNFPA; and the year 2000 and beyond. Within each of these chapters, excerpts have been arranged in an analytic order, with the aim of facilitating the flow of arguments presented. Appendices contain the 5 "State of World Population Reports" issued from 1980-84 and 7 Rafael M. Salas statements which, primarily due to their focus on the population issues of particular importance to the major regions of the globe, are reproduced in their entirety. This volume reflects the process of population policymaking of the UNFPA with the developing countries in support of their population programs in the past 15 years. These policies were sanctioned and validated, both nationally by the countries themselves and globally by UN deliberative bodies and conferences. The experience of UNFPA in policy formulation indicates that an effective population policy must have its proper time perspective and must be scientifically determined in its component elements, normative and applicable at different levels, multisectoral in its emphasis, and measurable in its impact and consequenes.
In: United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division. Fertility and family. New York, New York, United Nations, 1984. 107-23. (International Conference on Population, 1984; Statements)The Expert Group Meeting on Fertility and Family was assinged the identification of those areas in current scientific knowledge and concerns regarding fertility and family that were of greatest salience for policy formulation and implementation. Particular attention was to be paid to shifts that had occurred since the 1974 World Population Conference in Bucharest. This article is mainly an overview of the work of the Group and is organized around 3 main themes: 1) advances in knowledge of fertility levels and trends; 2) advances in understanding the relations between development, fertility and the family; 3)theoretical advances and practical experience with regard to policy formulation and implementation. 1) Knowledge of existing patterns of fertility and their composition has increased markedly over the last decade as a result of more data, better estimation techniques for measuring fertility levels and of new approaches to studying the reporductive process and family formation (e.g., the development of analytical models that allow quantification of the role of the various proximate determinants of fertility). A far-reaching realization is that proximate determinants of fertility may respond to the same set of factors but their responses may exhibit different elasticities. 2) In the understanding the relations between development, fertility and family, 2 main areas of concern can be identified. He level and type of analyses to date, especially the empirical ones, have been carried out at the micro-level, focusing on the individual decision maker. Although such models are advances over earlier ones developed largely from classical demographic transition theory, yet, their use has not been entirely satisfying because of the common failure to adequately specify the concepts involved and/or to substitute for them broad socioeconomic indicators in empirical work. In addition, institutional supports for and interrelations with particular patterns of fertility and family have been neglected, resulting, theoretical and practical impoverishment. The 2nd area of concern is the identification of those dimensions of family structure and function that are most intimately interlocked with modernization and fertility change. The discussion focuses on the interplay between modernization, the relationship between the generations, and between the sexes. Finally, there is an increasing awareness that a number of aspirations regarding fertility and family may be contradictory with respect to general advances in policcy formulation and implementation. 4 important trends can be discerned: 1) assessment of the potential utility and effectiveness of policy and programmatic efforts; 2) trends in the definition of desirable goals; 3) new directions in terms of the institutiona means for achieving these goals; and 4) shifts in the perception of the individual's freedom of choice.
New York, New York, United Nations, 1984. ix, 476 p. (International Conference on Population, 1984; Statements)The Expert Group on Fertility and Family was one of 4 expert groups assigned the task of examining critical, high priority population issues and, on that basis, making recommendations for action that would enhance the effectiveness of and compliance with the World Population Plan of Action. The report of the Expert Group consisted of 6 topics: 1) fertility response to modernization; 2) family structure and fertility; 3) choice with respect to childbearing, 4) reproductive and economic activity of women, 5) goals, policies and technical cooperation, and 6) recommendations. Contained in this report are also selected background papers with discuss in detail fertility determinants such as modernization, fertility decision processes, socioeconomic determinants, infant and child mortality as a ddeterminant of achieved fertility in some developed countries, the World Fertility Survey's contribution to understanding of fertility levels and trends, fertility in relation to family structure, measurement of the impact of population policies and programs on fertility, and techinical cooperation in the field of fertility and the family.
Draper Fund Report. 1984 Jun; (13):1-3.The UN International Conference on Population to be held in Mexico City in August 1984, responding to an unprecedented upsurge of interest in population over the last decade, offers developed and developing countries the opportunity to assess current and likely future population trends, to comment on programs and progress during the past 10 years, and to determine desirable future directions. More developing countries are reporting diminished declining fertility and family size in countries of widely varying ethnic, social, and economic makeup. Although it is likely that the future will bring a steadily declining rate of world population growth, culminating in stability, present trends indicate that it will take more than a century for world population to stabilize. Meanwhile growth continues. The developing world's annual average birthrate from1975-80 was twice as high as the developed world's. Also there are large areas, much of Latin America and most of Africa, where growth rates continue very high. Other areas, such as parts of Asia, do not follow the general declining trend despite trend despite, in some instances, a long history of population programs. Interest in population programs and demand for resources to support them are growing, but the population dimension is sometimes unrecognized in development planning. The experience of the last decade illustrates that population assistance can make a uniquely valuable contribution to national development when it is given in accord with national policies, is appropriate to local conditions and needs, and is delivered where it can make the most impact. Substantial evidence exists that women in the developing world undertand the risks of repeated pregrancy and would like to take steps to reduce them. It is evident that providers of family planning services are not yet sufficiently responsive to women's own perceptions of their needs and that the social and economic conditions which make family planning a reasonable option do not yet exist. Influxes of immigrants, short and long term, legal and illegal, create particular problems for receiving countries. It is important for sending countries to know what effect the absence of their nationals is having on the domestic economy and essential for receiving countries to consider the protection of the human rights of international migrants, including settlers, workers, undocumented migrants, and refugees. It is a particular responsibility of the industrialized nations to make careful use of limited resources and to ensure that their comsumption contributes to the overall balance of the environment. In most developing countries infectious and parasitic disease remains the primary cause of death, particularly among the young. Much of this toll is preventable. The International Conference on Population provides an opportunity to establish in broad terms the conditions and directions of future cooperation.
Population and the role of the family, statement made at the Scientific Conference on Family and Population, sponsored by the International Union of Family Organizations, Hanasaari, Espoo, Finland, 26 May, 1984.
New York, N.Y., UNFPA, . 5 p. (Speech Series No. 112)The family is the fundamental guarantor of the past, present and future of society. The social norms and values of a culture are transmitted from generation to generation through the family. Through the family, fresh influences are modulated and filtered and eventually harmonized with accepted norms. It is a highly influential instrument of social change. The family is also the guardian of social stability. In many developing countries the major social change affecting the family has been the fall in fertility which has been going on since the mid-1960s and has become a definite trend. The implication of lower fertility is that the nuclear family will become more socially significant than the extended family. This raises questions such as the role and care of the elderly, and women's role as workers outside the home. 2 main considerations are imbedded in the recommendations to the International Conference on Population in 1984: 1) that free choice in the size and spacing of the family is a basic human righ and that access to informatin and the means of family planning is a part of that right; 2) that it is the right and responsibility of governments to develop and implement population policies in the context of national development goals. These twin principles of respect for the rights of individuals and respect for national sovereignty are fundamental to all international agreements and action in population.
The World Fertility Survey: a basis for population and development planning, statement made at the World Fertility Survey Conference, London, England, 7 July 1980.
New York, N.Y., UNFPA, . 5 p. (Speech Series No. 54)The World Fertility Survey (WFS) is the largest social science research survey undertaken to date. From its inception in 1972 the WFS has received the full support of the UN and the UNFPA. This program has not only enhanced considerably our knowledge of fertility levels and fertility regulation practices in developing as well as developed countries but has also provided the UN system with internationally comparable data on human fertility on a large scale for the 1st time. The methodology developed by the WFS has made it possible to collect data on the individual and the household as well as the community. Information has become available not only on fertility levels, trends and patterns but also on fertility preferences and nuptiality as well as knowledge and use of family planning methods. Initial findings document the rather dramatic fertility decline taking place in many developing countries under various socioeconomic and cultural conditions. They also show the magnitude of existing unmet needs for family planning in the developing world which must be continuously brought to the attention of the governments of all countries. A most encouraging effect of the program, however, has been the fact that 21 industrialized countries have carried out, entirely with their own resources, fertility surveys within the WFS framework and in accordance with its recommendations, making it truly an internationally collaborative effort.
Population--common problems, common interests, statement made at Regional Meeting on Population of the Economic Commission for Europe, Sofia, Bulgaria, 6 October, 1983.
New York, N.Y., UNFPA, . 8 p. (Speech Series No. 100)This statement outlines in brief present trends in world population growth. Although population growth is declining, it will nevertheless take more than a century for population to stabilize and this poses major problems which will all be discussed at the International Conference on Population in 1984. Discussions at the Conference will center on 4 topics: 1) fertility and the family--this includes among other issues, the issue of the elderly, and family size; 2) distribution and migration; 3) resources and the environment; and, 4) health and mortality.