Your search found 42 Results

  1. 1

    World fertility patterns 2007. [Wallchart].

    United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    New York, New York, United Nations, 2008 Jan. [2] p. (ST/ESA/SER.A/269)

    The last decades of the twentieth century witnessed a major transformation in world fertility: total fertility fell from an average of 4.5 children per woman in 1970-1975 to 2.6 children per woman in 2000-2005. This change was driven mostly by developing countries whose fertility dropped by nearly half (from 5.4 to 2.9 children per woman) with the decline being less marked among the least developed countries where fertility remains high (their average fertility declined from 6.6 children per woman in 1970-1975 to 5.0 in 2000-2005). This chart presents some of the data available to assess the change in fertility taking place in the countries of the world. For each of the 195 countries or areas with at least 100,000 inhabitants in 2007, it displays available unadjusted data on total fertility, age-specific fertility and the mean age at childbearing for two points in time: the first as close as possible to 1970 and the second as close as possible to 2005. Data on total fertility for the world as a whole, the development groups and major areas are estimates referring to 1970-1975 and 2000-2005 derived from the 2006 Revision of World Population Prospects. The chart thus presents regional estimates of fertility change and part of the basic data underlying those estimates. (excerpt)
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  2. 2

    Population issues in the 21st century: The role of the World Bank.

    Lakshminarayanan R; May JF; Bos E; Hasan R; Suzuki E

    Washington, D.C., World Bank, Human Development Network, 2007 Apr. [78] p. (HNP Discussion Paper)

    The objective of this paper is to discuss some obstacles and opportunities presented by population processes in order to prioritize areas for investment and analytical work as background information for the 2007 HNP Sector Strategy. Within HNP, two areas fall within population: (1) reproductive, maternal, and sexual health issues, and the health services that address them; and (2) levels and trends in births, deaths, and migration that determine population growth and age structure. Many of the aspects of delivery of sexual and reproductive health services are addressed in the overall sector strategy. This paper, therefore, focuses on the determinants and consequences of demographic change, and on policies and interventions that pertain to fertility and family planning. Fertility has declined in most of the low- and middle-income countries, with TFRs converging toward replacement level, except in 35 countries, mainly in Sub-Saharan Africa, where a broad-based decline in fertility has not occurred. As the priorities of donors and development agencies have shifted toward other issues, and global funds and initiatives have largely bypassed funding of family planning, less attention is being focused on the consequences of high fertility. Reproductive health is conspicuously absent from the MDGs, and assistance to countries to meet the demand for family planning and related services is insufficient. The need for Bank engagement in population issues pertains to economic growth and poverty reduction, as well as inequities in terms of the impact of high fertility on the poor and other vulnerable groups. Evidence indicates that large family size reduces household spending per child, possibly with adverse effects on girls, and the health of mothers and children are affected by parity and birth intervals. Equity considerations remain central to the Bank's work as poor people are less likely to have access to family planning and other reproductive health services. Other vulnerable groups that are less likely to be served by reproductive health services include adolescents and rural populations. Additionally, improved education for girls, equal opportunities for women in society, and a reduction of the proportion of households living below the poverty line are necessary elements of a strategy to achieve sustainable reductions in fertility. The Bank has a comparative advantage to address these issues at the highest levels of country policy setting, and its involvement in many sectors can produce synergies that will allow faster progress than a more narrow focus on family planning services. (author's)
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  3. 3

    The world population over the next three centuries: explosion, implosion or equilibrium?

    Heran F

    Population and Societies. 2005 Jan; (408):1-4.

    The United Nations has just published projections of the world population until 2300. The population is expected to increase for fifty years then stabilize… or explode or implode, depending on whether fertility remains durably above or below replacement level. But how much value should we place on projections so far into the future? François Héran explains that this exercise in demography-fiction is useful if it teaches us how to avoid the disaster scenarios of population explosion or implosion. (excerpt)
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  4. 4

    United Nations reviews implementation of ICPD Program of Action.

    Population 2005. 2004 Apr; 6(1):1-15.

    On the occasion of the 10th anniversary of the International Conference on Population and Development, the United Nations Population Division has produced a major report, which concludes that the decade since the adoption of the Program of Action has been one of substantial progress. The world is beginning to see the end of rapid population growth, couples are closer to achieving their desired family size and spacing of children, mortality is declining in most countries and there is evidence that many countries are taking the necessary steps to confront HIV/AIDS and other mortality crises, and Governments are initiating processes to address concerns related to international migration. While much progress has been made in the implementation of the Program of Action during the last 10 years, there have also been shortfalls and gaps. The progress has not been universal and, based on current trends, many countries may fall short of the agreed goals of the Program of Action. To achieve the goals and objectives of the Program of Action, continued efforts and commitment are needed to mobilize sufficient human and financial resources, to strengthen institutional capacities, and to nurture partnerships among Governments, the international community, non-governmental organizations and civil society. With such efforts and commitment, the next review and appraisal can be expected to show broader and deeper progress in achieving the goals and objectives of the Program of Action. (excerpt)
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  5. 5
    Peer Reviewed

    Population futures for the next three hundred years: Soft landing or surprises to come?

    Demeny P

    Population and Development Review. 2004 Sep; 30(3):507-517.

    World Population in 2300 (United Nations 2003b), reporting on the proceedings of a December 2003 expert group meeting on long-range population projections and presenting the results of a new set of United Nations population projections, bears out Hajnal's argument. Among his three propositions, the validity of the second is the most obvious. There has been a veritable outpouring of demographic projections during the last 50 years, prepared by various international organizations and national agencies, as well as by independent analysts. Among these, the United Nations Population Division's now biennially revised projections are by far the most detailed, best known, and most widely used. This well-deserved prominence reflects the Division's unparalleled access to national data, its in-house analytic experience and resources, and its willingness to draw on outside expertise whenever that might usefully complement its own. The most recent of the biennial projections, the 2002 Revision (United Nations 2003a), is the immediate predecessor of World Population in 2300, and indeed the former provides the year 2000 to 2050 component for the new set of long-term projections covering the next 300 years. This new set is not just one among the many. It is distinguished from the routine by an exceptionally brave ambition: to draw a picture of plausible demographic futures up to the year 2300 and to do so in extraordinary detail: country-by-country according to the political map of the early twenty-first century. (excerpt)
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  6. 6

    Fertility down, but population decline still not in sight.

    Haub C

    Washington, D.C., Population Reference Bureau [PRB], 2002 May-Jun. [3] p.

    A March meeting of demographers at the United Nations captured headlines proclaiming "Population Decline in Sight," "Shrinking World," and "Population Boom a Bust." Although more attention to population trends is welcome news, the media's focus on a single aspect of the UN's deliberations produced stories at odds with what many participants took away from the meeting. What happened at the Expert Group Meeting on Completing the Fertility Transition, the third in a series on future fertility trends, was that population experts endorsed a proposal by the UN Population Division to accommodate fertility levels below the two-child- per-couple replacement level in the division's 2002 revision of its world population estimates and projections. Endorsement came after examination of the fertility prospects for a large group of less developed countries, those with a total fertility rate less than 5 children per woman, but more than 2.1, or the "intermediate-fertility" countries. This group includes Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, and Vietnam. This step means the UN will consider fine-tuning its assumptions. It is also considering projecting to 2075. (excerpt)
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  7. 7

    Evaluating health projects: lessons from the literature.

    Stout S; Evans A; Nassim J; Raney L; Bulatao R; Gauri V; Johnston T

    Washington, D.C., World Bank, 1997. xi, 118 p. (World Bank Discussion Paper No. 356)

    In order to begin the process of assessing the effectiveness of the World Bank's work in the health, nutrition, and population sector (which has involved loans of nearly US$10 million in 89 countries since 1970), this report reviews this work and presents an assessment strategy. The introductory chapter is followed by a literature review on determinants of trends in fertility and mortality conducted to aid identification of evaluation benchmarks. Chapter 3 covers the tools and methods used to evaluate population and health policies, beginning with the methodology used to assess the effectiveness of family planning programs and moving on to broader considerations of health policy and program evaluation, cost benefit analyses, and service delivery evaluation. The fourth chapter sketches the World Bank's involvement in the health, nutrition, and population sector and summarizes the results of previous reviews of the World Bank's experience in this area. Chapter 5 presents an evaluation framework for assessing the World Bank's effectiveness in influencing the demand responsiveness of service delivery structures and institutional capacity in borrower settings as well as development effectiveness in terms of: 1) clinical/epidemiological effectiveness, 2) accessibility and equity, 3) quality and consumer satisfaction, and 4) economic efficiency. The proposed evaluation will provide a cross-country analysis of the World Bank's entire lending portfolio in this sector as well as country sector impact studies.
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  8. 8

    Concise report on the world population situation in 1993, with special emphasis on refugees.

    United Nations. Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis. Population Division

    New York, New York, United Nations, 1994. vii, 49 p. (ST/ESA/SER.A/138)

    The 137 paragraphs in this United Nations report detail trends, as of 1993, in the areas of refugees, population growth and distribution, fertility and mortality, international migration, and the environment. A stagnation in the decline of total fertility and changes in the age structure of the population have caused the world population growth rate to remain at about 1.7% per year since 1975. However, the gap between the growth rates of more and less developed countries increased from 0.7% in 1950-55 to 1.5% in 1985-90. 61% of developing countries consider their current population growth rates to be too high, and this is reflected in the growing number of countries that have population policies explicitly aimed at curbing overpopulation. At present, 36 of Africa's 53 countries have adopted fertility reduction policies. From 1985 to 1993, the world's refugee population increased from 8.5 to 19 million. Most of these refugees resettled in developing countries; also observed was a trend toward increased asylum applications in developed countries. Safeguarding the global environment (land, forests, and water) is emerging as a major rationale for reducing population growth rates.
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  9. 9


    United Nations Population Fund [UNFPA]

    New York, New York, UNFPA, [1991]. v, 36 p. (Report)

    The former government of Romania sought to maintain existing population and accelerate population growth by restricting migration, increasing fertility, and reducing mortality. The provision and use of family planning (FP) were subject to restrictions and penalties beginning in 1986, the legal marriage age for females was lowered to 15 years, and incentives were provided to bolster fertility. These and other government policies have contributed to existing environmental pollution, poor housing, insufficient food, and major health problems in the country. To progress against population-related problems, Romania most urgently needs to gather reliable population and socioeconomic data for planning purposes, establish the ability to formulate population policy and undertake related activities, rehabilitate the health system and introduce modern FP methods, education health personnel and the public about FP methods, promote awareness of the need for population education, and establish that women's interests are served in government policy and action. These topics, recommendations, and the role of foreign assistance are discussed in turn.
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  10. 10

    Fertility trends and prospects in East and South-East Asian countries and implications for policies and programmes.

    Leete R

    POPULATION RESEARCH LEADS. 1991; (39):1-17.

    Fertility trends and prospects for east and southeast Asian countries including cities in China, Taiwan, the Republic of Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Myanmar, and Viet Nam are described. Additional discussion focuses on family planning methods, marriage patterns, fertility prospects, theories of fertility change, and policy implications for the labor supply, labor migrants, increased female participation in the labor force (LFP), human resource development, and social policy measures. Figures provide graphic descriptions of total fertility rates (TFRS) for 12 countries/areas for selected years between 1960-90, TFR for selected Chinese cities between 1955-90, the % of currently married women 15-44 years using contraception by main method for selected years and for 10 countries, actual and projected TFR and annual growth rates between 1990-2020 for Korea and Indonesia. It is noted that the 1st southeast Asian country to experience a revolution in reproductive behavior was Japan with below replacement level fertility by 1960. This was accomplished by massive postponement in age at marriage and rapid reduction in marital fertility. Fertility was controlled primarily through abortion. Thereafter every southeast Asian country experienced fertility declines. Hong Kong, Penang, Shanghai, Singapore, and Taipei and declining fertility before the major thrust of family planning (FP). Chinese fertility declines were reflected in the 1970s to the early 1980s and paralleled the longer, later, fewer campaign and policy which set ambitious targets which were strictly enforced at all levels of administration. Korea and Taiwan's declines were a result of individual decision making to restrict fertility which was encouraged by private and government programs to provide FP information and subsidized services. The context was social and economic change. Indonesia's almost replacement level fertility was achieved dramatically through the 1970s and 1980s by institutional change in ideas about families and schooling and material welfare, changes in the structure of governance, and changes in state ideology. Thailand's decline began in the 1960s and is attributed to social change, change in cultural setting, demand, and FP efforts. Modest declines characterize Malaysia and the Philippines, which have been surpassed by Myanmar and Viet Nam. The policy implications are that there are shortages in labor supply which can be remedied with labor migration, pronatalist policy, more capital intensive industries, and preparation for a changing economy.
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  11. 11

    Socio-economic determinants of fertility: an assessment of recent findings and their implications.

    Cleland JG

    In: Population policies and programmes: current status and future directions, [compiled by] United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP]. New York, New York, United Nations, 1987. 43-58. (Asian Population Studies Series No. 84; ST/ESCAP/563)

    The influence of socioeconomic factors on marital fertility and its connection to population policies is the purpose of a recent UN study. It has been found that birth control can effect the rate of decline but not initiate reproductive change. Events over the last 30 years indicate that a decline in marital fertility once started in a population will continue much further. In Europe declines in fertility between late 1800's and early 1900's were significant with no association to the socioeconomic conditions. For example, England at the time was highly industrialized; Bulgaria on the other hand was mainly agricultural, clearly eliminating simple economic reasons. Life expectancy and education show a stronger relationship with fertility decline than economic factors, and are analyzed more. Declining child mortality can change population policies of governments and practices of parents where irreversible birth control dominate. There appear to be no definite socioeconomic barriers to fertility decline, since a decline has occurred in populations with poverty, illiteracy and subsistence agriculture conditions. The conclusion from previous evidence indicates fertility decline starts because of acceptance of major behavioral changes, i.e., birth control, which allow parents to prevent unwanted children. There seems to be little in the way that governments can influence levels of fertility by socioeconomic levels. Education, on the other hand, can effect fertility but has the drawback of a generational lag. In the immediate future, the promotion of birth control and the expansion of services for the less educated and rural people should offer the most progress.
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  12. 12

    Levels and trends of contraceptive use as assessed in 1988.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs

    New York, N.Y., United Nations, 1989. viii, 129 p. (Population Studies No. 110; ST/ESA/SER.A/110)

    This global review of contraceptive practice was conducted by the Population Division of the Department of International Economic and Social Affairs of the UN Secretariat as part of its regular program of studies of demographic trends. Increasing government interest in and support for family planning programs over the past several decades are reflected in the attention given to this topic in the World Population Plan of Action adopted in 1974 and the resolutions adopted at the International Conference on Population held in 1984. The report contains a comprehensive overview of survey-based data on the level of contraceptive use, types of methods employed, and recent trends in contraceptive practice. It discusses the availability of contraceptives to national populations, drawing on results of recent international studies. Updated global and regional estimates of average levels of contraceptive use and methods are included. 1 new feature is a discussion of the amount of growth in contraceptive use that will be needed if fertility is to decline in developing countries in accordance with UN population projections. A new reference table shows national survey measures of current contraceptive use, by method, for all available countries and dates. Data available through May 1988 are included in the review. Nationally representative sample survey data, which are considered to provide the most comprehensive available information about levels of contraceptive use and methods employed, were available for at least 1 date for 97 countries and areas containing over 80% of the world's population. The concentration of recent surveys in developing countries makes contraceptive practice 1 of the few demographic topics for which data are more timely and more comprehensive for developing regions as a whole than for the industrialized countries.
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  13. 13


    Seaga EP

    In: Population perspectives. Statements by world leaders. Second edition, [compiled by] United Nations Fund for Population Activities [UNFPA]. New York, New York, UNFPA, 1985. 89.

    Rapid population growth has impeded the efforts of the Government of Jamaica to provide adequate social services such as education and health care to all sectors of the population. Moreover, the population-related problems of high unemployment, widespread rural-urban migration, and an unequal distribution of income have hindered the country's development process. Jamaica's National Population Policy, adopted in 1983, seeks to establish a coherent set of goals in terms of achieving a population size that is consistent with sustained economic development. Targets of this policy include a population not exceeding 3 million by the year 2000; attainment of an average total fertility rate of 2 births/woman by the end of the 1980s; an increase in life expectancy from the current level of 70 years to 73 years by 2000; a reduction in the outmigration of skilled labor through increased employment opportunities; and improvements in the areas of housing, nutrition, education, and environmental conditions. Although fertility remains unacceptably high, the crude birth rate has declined in the post-Independence period, from 40/1000 in 1960 to 27/1000 in 1980. Crucial to the attainment of these goals is the involvement of all areas of government and the private sector.
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  14. 14


    Moi DT

    In: Population perspectives. Statements by world leaders. Second edition, [compiled by] United Nations Fund for Population Activities [UNFPA]. New York, New York, UNFPA, 1985. 92-3.

    In the 2 decades of independence, the Government of Kenya has used incomes generated for improvements in medical care, education, nutrition, and water sanitation facilities. The sum effect has been a general improvement in living standards and a significant reduction in mortality, especially infant mortality. However, a high rate of population growth and its structural and spatial implications have magnified problems in areas such as human resource development and expanded opportunities for income-generation. The current population, estimated at 19.4 million, is doubling every 18 years and expected to reach 35 million by the end of the century. Young people increasingly dominate the population's structure. Modern contraception has been adopted by only a minority of women and is applied to birth spacing rather than to limiting family size. In rural areas, Kenyan women continue to have high fertility aspirations. Even with declines in fertility, the decades ahead will see severe stresses on Kenya's health care, education, and employment sectors. The number of children served by the primary school system (ages 6-14 year olds) is expected to increase from 4 million in 1980 to 8.9 million by 2000, while the labor force (15-49 year olds) should rise from 6.8 million to 15.7 million in this period. It is only through the participation of rural and urban Kenyans in district development planning that Kenya's high fertility levels can be reduced and economic development sustained.
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  15. 15


    Doe SK

    In: Population perspectives. Statements by world leaders. Second edition, [compiled by] United Nations Fund for Population Activities [UNFPA]. New York, New York, UNFPA, 1985. 98-9.

    Liberia is characterized by a high fertility rate; its current total fertility rate of 6.7 children/woman is one of the highest in Africa. Also quite high is the country's 18/1000 mortality rate. Until the 1980s, Liberia was able to maintain a favorable balance between an increasing population and the gross domestic product. In more recent years, however, the economic growth rate has fallen behind the population growth rate, with a subsequent sharp decline in the standard of living. Economic recovery is currently the cornerstone of Liberia's development policy, and the protection and enhancement of the population's welfare by proper planning is a key goal. Population policies that will accelerate the pace of achieving national economic objectives are under consideration. Of particular concern is the massive migration of rural residents to urban areas. In response to this trend, development projects in rural areas are being expanded.
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  16. 16


    Jugnauth A

    In: Population perspectives. Statements by world leaders. Second edition, [compiled by] United Nations Fund for Population Activities [UNFPA]. New York, New York, UNFPA, 1985. 106-7.

    As a result of malaria eradication, general progress in medical science, and free government health services, Mauritius's population grew dramatically in the postwar decades. In addition to this alarming trend in population growth, Mauritius also faced a high population density ratio and a mono-culture economy based on sugar. Initial attempts to offer institutionalized family planning services met with opposition from some religious groups. By 1965, however, the climate was more favorable and the Government moved to provide subsidies to 2 private voluntary organizations that offered family planning services. In the 1965-72 period, the Government of Mauritius took a more aggressive role in population activities by significantly increasing the number of family planning service delivery points and expanding the infrastructure for population control. As a result of these measures, the total fertility rate dropped to 3.42 in 1972 compared with 5.86 in 1962. In the 1972-82 period, even further gains were made and the fertility rate fell to 2.39. Continuous declines have also been recorded in the infant mortality rate, which now (1983) stands at 26/1000 live births. Nonetheless, there is a need to continue to curb population growth to ensure the availability of natural resources. Through measures such as family planning, health, education, communication, and information programs, the Government population policy seeks to lower the gross reproduction rate from 1.18 in 1982 to 1.12 by 1987. Multisector, integrated development is being stressed given recognition that nondemographic factors such as education, better housing, welfare services, policies to modernize agriculture, and economic diversification are essential to improvements in the population's standard of living.
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  17. 17

    Teenage fertility in developing countries.

    Pillai VK


    Data were taken from "A Compilation of Age Specific Fertility Rates for Developing Countries" (US Bureau of Census, 1979) to compile a detailed profile of teenage fertility in developing countries as a basis for designing policies at an international level. Of the 127 countries for which data were available, 65 countries which had data for circa 1965 and 1970 were considered for this analysis. In 1960, the average number of births/1000 women aged 15-19 years was 116; in 1965 the average was 106. There was considerable variation in teenage fertility rates among countries in the developing world. The coefficients of variation of the number of births/1000 women aged 15-19 years were 47% in 1960 and approximately 44% in 1965. Both the Asian and African regions contained countries with very low teenage fertility rates, 31/1000 women aged 15-19 years in 1960. The lowest 1960 rate for Latin American countries was 50/1000. The largest proportion of all births in 1960 occurred in Latin America, 38%. The countries of Oceania contributed the smallest, 7.2% of the total teen births in 1960. Teenage fertility rates declined in all regions during 1960-65. The analysis of teen fertility rates of developing countries reveals several problematical aspects which have implications for policy formulation, including: the teen fertility rates of developing countries are very high relative to developed nations; and despite the fact that Africa and Latin America have higher teen fertility levels compared to the rest of the developing world, few international agencies have targeted Africa and Latin America as priorities for birth control activities.
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  18. 18

    The geography of fertility in the ESCAP region.

    United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP]

    Bangkok, Thailand, United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP], 1988 Aug. iii, 41, [31] p. (Asian Population Studies Series No. 62-K)

    The goal of this Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) project was to help family planning administrators and other development planners to pinpoint areas of high and low fertility through reference to a series of maps. Maps have the advantage of being able to summarize an enormous number of items of information in an easily comprehendable manner, including not only the levels and trends of fertility of each area, but also the contrasts between areas and groups of areas at 1 time and over time. The project began when data from the 1980 censuses became available and focused on 10 countries: Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, the Philippines, Republic of Korea, Sri Lanka, and Thailand. The maps show in detail, in some cases at the level of very small administrative areas, levels and trends of fertility during the 1970s and where possible the 1960s. The 10 countries participating in this study had to develop new methodological techniques to estimate the fertility of small areas from census data. In most cases, fertility was estimated from the age-sex distribution and children ever born classified by age of mother. Central to the analysis was the concept of reverse survival, which assumes that the number of births can be estimated from the census counts of children and an estimate of the number of children who would have been enumerated in the census if they had not died. The major lesson of this study was that maps of fertility can be drawn with sufficient accuracy to show patterns that cannot be identified easily through any other approach.
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  19. 19

    The demographic situation in the ECAFE region.

    United Nations. Economic Commission for Asia and the Far East [ECAFE]. Secretariat

    In: Population strategy in Asia. The Second Asian Population Conference, Tokyo, November 1972. Report, declaration and selected papers, [compiled by] United Nations Economic Commission for Asia and the Far East [ECAFE]. Bangkok, Thailand, ECAFE, 1974 Jun. 69-130. (Asian Population Study Series No. 28; E/C.N.11/1152)

    The Economic Commission for Asia and the Far East (ECAFE) region currently includes 31 countries and territories. Since the first Asian Population Conference in 1963, there has been greater recognition of the adverse effects of rapid population growth on national development and on the standard of living of individual family units. By the year 2000, the population of the ECAFE region is expected to almost equal the total for the world in 1970, despite significantly slowed population growth in the East Asia subregion. During the periods 1900-1950 and 1950-2000, the average annual rates of growth for the population of the ECAFE region are estimated at 0.7% and 2.0%, respectively. The 4 largest countries in the region--China, India, Indonesia, and Japan--together hold 78% of the region's total population. Even in the countries where there has been a decline in fertility, it has not been sufficient to offset the effects of corresponding declines in mortality. The 1950 population of each country, except for China and Japan, will at least double itself by the year 2000. The number of preschool-aged children is expected to reach 356 million by 1980 and there will be 609 million school-aged children. Children ages 0-14 years currently comprise about 40% of the total population of the ECAFE region, producing a high dependency burden. The female population in the reproductive age group will grow from 474 million in 1970 to 593 million in 1980, implying that the fertility potential of the region will be accelerated. In addition, the population of persons aged 60 years and over will increase from 117 million in 1970 to 158 million in 1980, requiring significant investments in health facilities and social security. The urban population in the region is expected to increase from 25% in 1970 to 45% by 2000. Despite widespread awareness of the interrelation of population and development, no common approach among demographers, family plannes, and economic plannes has emerged.
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  20. 20

    The prevalence method.

    Bongaarts J

    In: Addendum. Manual IX: The methodology of measuring the impact of family planning programmes on fertility, by the Population Division of the Department of International Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations. New York, New York, United Nations, 1986. 9-14. (Population Studies No. 66; ST/ESA/SER.A/66/Add.1)

    This chapter describes and applies a new methodology for estimating the fertility impact of contraception obtained through a family planning program. This approach is called the prevalence method because the principal data required for its application are estimates of the prevalence of contraceptive use at a given point in time. It is the objective of the prevalence method to estimate the number of births averted as well as the reduction in the crude birth rate that results form the use of program contraception. A single application of the procedure produces these estimates for 1 year, but repeated applications for different years can yield a time-series of births averted or other impact measures. The procedure for calculating births averted by program users consists of 6 parts to obtain, consecutively, estimates of: natural fertility, potential fertility, fertility impact of program use, births averted, birth rate impact, and method-specific results. Each of these steps is described in some detail. This new approach provides a simple and straightforward alternative to existing methods for estimating the gross fertility impact of program contraception. In contrast to several of the other procedures, the prevalence method does not require detailed input data on numbers of past acceptors and continuation rates. Instead, estimates of the prevalence of program and non-program contraception by age and method are required as principal input data. While such data were rarely available in the past, prevalence estimates are now routinely obtained from national surveys in many developing countries, thus making the application of the prevalence method possible.
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  21. 21

    [National Conference on Fertility and Family, Oaxaca de Juarez, Oaxaca, April 13, 1984] Reunion Nacional sobre Fecundidad y Familia, Oaxaca de Juarez, Oax., a 13 de abril de 1984.

    Mexico. Consejo Nacional de Poblacion [CONAPO]

    Mexico City, Mexico, CONAPO, 1984. 228 p.

    Proceedings of a national conferences on the family and fertility held in April 1984 as part of Mexico's preparation for the August 1984 World Population Conference are presented. 2 opening addresses outline the background and objectives of the conference, while the 1st paper details recommendations of a 1983 meeting on fertility and the family held in New Delhi. The main body of the report presents 2 conference papers and commentary. The 1st paper, on fertility, contraception, and family planning, discusses fertility policies; levels and trends of fertility in Mexico from 1900 to 1970 and since 1970; socioeconomic and geographic fertility differentials; the relationship of mortality and fertility; contraception and the role of intermediate variables; the history and achievements of family planning activities of the private and public sectors in Mexico; and the relationship between contraception, fertility, and family planning. The 2nd paper, on the family as a sociodemographic unit and subject of population policies, discusses the World Population Plan of Action and current sociodemographic policies in Mexico; the family as a sociodemographic unit, including the implications of formal demography for the study of family phenomena, the dynamic sociodemographic composition of the family unit, and the family as a mediating unit for internal and external social actions; and steps in development of a possible population policy in which families would be considered an active part, including ideologic views of the family as a passive object of policy and possible mobilization strategies for families in population policies. The conference as a whole concluded by reaffirming the guiding principles of Mexico's population policy, including the right of couples to decide the number and spacing of their children, the fundamental objective of the population policy of elevating the socioeconomic and cultural level of the population, the view of population policy as an essential element of development policy, and the right of women to full participation. Greater efforts were believed to be necessary in such priority areas as integration of family planning programs with development planning and population policy, creation of methodologies for the analysis of families in their social contexts, development and application of contraceptive methodologies, promotion of male participation in family planning, coordination of federal and state family planning programs, and creation of sociodemographic information systems to ensure availability of more complete date on families in specific population sectors. The principles of the World Population Plan of Action were also reaffirmed.
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  22. 22

    Population growth and policies in sub-Saharan Africa.

    World Bank

    Washington, D.C., World Bank, 1986 Aug. x, 102 p.

    This report provides a comprehensive assessment of the magnitude and underlying causes of Africa's rapid population growth and suggests a framework to help African leaders design policies to address this problem. The report has 3 themes. The 1st theme is that rapid population growth in Africa is slowing economic development and reducing the possibility of raising living standards. Africa's population growth rate, the highest in the world, has accelerated from an average of 2.8%/year in 1970-82 to 3.1%/year in 1985. Population growth is expected to continue to rise for at least another 5-10 years. In addition to undermining economic growth and per capita income growth, the population explosion implies higher child and maternal morbidity and mortality, further degradation of the natural environment, constraints on expanding education and health care services, and falling wages. A comprehensive population policy in African countries must include efforts both to slow this growth and to cope with its consequences. A 2nd theme is one of cautious hope arising from recent indications of a change in ideas and behavior regarding fertility. More and more African governments are expressing alarm about population growth and are supporting family planning measures. Improvements in women's status, especially in female education, are occurring and can be expected to have a fertility reducing effect. Increased availability and accessibility of family planning services could raise Africa's contraceptive prevalence rate from its current level of 3-4% to 25% in the next decade. The 3rd theme is that strategic reorientation of the direction and nature of government involvement in the area of population policy is required. Although governments should not seek to be the only provider of family planning services, they must take the lead in generating a climate of legitimacy for family planning. An increase in external assistance will be necessary if family planning is to become a realistic option for Africans.
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  23. 23

    A fresh look at the threshold hypothesis of fertility change in ESCAP region

    Pathak KB; Murthy PK

    Demography India. 1984 Jan-Dec; 13(1-2):153-67.

    The threshold hypothesis shares with transition theory the basic assumption that a decline in fertility is interrelated with a decline in mortality and change in the social, economic, and cultural conditions of the population. However, threshold theory fails to formulate a causal chain between fertility and the other variables and its application at the aggregate country level is limited by intracountry heterogeneity in cultural and social variables. Problematic is the fixing of the timing for a country of a decline in fertility to be inferred from the fact that some indicators of development have reached the threshold zone while others have not. This paper attempts to develope a combined index for socioeconomic development on the basis of data from 12 countries of the ESCAP region of South East Asia. Variables included were life expectancy at birth, infant mortality rate, adult female literacy, percentages of females economically active, GNP per capita, and percentage urban population. In 1970, 3 of the countries analyzed had a crude birth rate below 25, 6 countries had a rate between 25-40, and 3 had a rate above 40. The lowest value of the index recorded for countries of low fertility (crude birth rate below 25) and the highest value recorded for countries of high fertility (above 40) are taken as the threshold zones for the overall index. The number of countries in the threshold range increased from 5 in 1970 to 8 in 1975. With the increase in the index value, a reduction in the fertility level was noted. In contrast, where socioeconomic development was slow, fertility showed little change. Policy makers could use this system to assess which indicator could be pushed through to raise the overall index of development so as to effect a decline in fertility.
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  24. 24

    Population change and development in the ECWA region

    Caldwell P; Caldwell JC

    In: Aspects of population change and development in some African and Asian countries. Cairo, Egypt, Cairo Demographic Centre, 1984. 43-56. (CDC Research Monograph Series no. 9)

    This paper examines the relationship between economic development and demographic change in the 13 states of the Economic Commission for West Asia (ECWA) region. Demographic variables considered include per capita income, proportion urban, proportion in urban areas with over 100,000 inhabitants, literacy among those over 15 years, and literacy among women. Unweighted rankings on these variables were added to produce a development ranking or general development index. Then this index was used to investigate the relationship between development and individual scores and rankings for various demographic indices. The development index exhibited a rough fit with the mortality indices, especially life expectancy at birth. Mortality decline appears to be most closely related to rise in income. At the same income level, countries that have experienced substantial social change tend to exhibit the lowest mortality, presumably because of a loosening in family role patterns. In contrast, the relationship between development and fertility measures seemed to be almost random. A far closer correlation was noted between the former and the general development index. It is concluded that economic development alone will not reduce fertility. Needed are 2 changes: 1) profound social change in the family and in women's status, achievable through increases in female education, and 2) government family planning programs to ensure access to contraception.
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  25. 25

    Female employment and fertility in developing countries

    Brazzell JF

    In: Quantitative approaches to analyzing socioeconomic determinants of Third World fertility trends: reviews of the literature. Project final report: overview, by Indiana University Fertility Determinants Group, George J. Stolnitz, director. [Unpublished] 1984. 79-91.

    Simple no-work/work distinctions are an unreliable basis for estimating causal linkages connecting female employment/work-status patterns to fertility. World Fertility Survey (WFS) data show about 3/4, 1/2, and 1/4 child differentials for over 20, 10-19, and under 10 years marital duration grouss respectively, for women employed since marriage. Effects on marriage seem strongest in Latin America and weakest in Asia. Controlling for age, marital duration, urban-rural residence, education, and husband's work status. But from the results of a number of WFS and other studies, it seems relationships of work status and fertility are difficult to confirm beyond directional indications, even in Latin America. A UN study using proximate determinants such as contraception and work status including a housework category indicated differentials in contraceptive practice were not significant net of control for education. Philippine data indicates low-income employment might increase fertility by decreasing breastfeeding, while WFS data from 5 Asian countries indicated pre-marital work encourages increased marriage age, without being specific about effects. Also, female employment must affect a large population to have a real impact on aggregate fertility, since female labor force activity is likely to change slowly if at all. Data presently available do not cover micro-level factors that may be important, such as effects of work on breastfeeding, nor do they lend themselves to examination by multi-equation analysis. More work is needed to isolate effects of work-status attributes like male employment, and to analyze intra-cohort mid-course fertility objective changes, as well as new theoretical process models such as competing time use and maternal role incompatibility.
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