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[Unpublished] . 10,  p.Based upon United Nations medium population projections, the population of developing countries will grow from 4,086 million in 1990, to 5,000 million by the year 2000. To meet this medium-level projection, 186 million contraceptive users must be added for a total 567 million in addition to increased contraceptive prevalence of 59% from 51%. This study estimates the number of contraceptive users, acceptors, and cost of contraceptive commodities needed to limit growth to this medium projection. Needs are estimated by country and method for 1990, 1995 and 2000, for medium, high, and low population projections. The number of contraceptive users required to reach replacement fertility is also calculated. Results are based upon the number of women aged 15-49, percent married, number married ages 15-49, and the proportion of couples using contraception. Estimation methodology is discussed in detail. Estimated users of respective methods in millions are 150 sterilizations, 333 IUD insertions, 663 injections, 7,589 cycles of pills, and 30,000 condoms. Estimated commodity costs will grow from $399 million in 1990 to $627 million in 2000, for a total $5.1 billion over the period. Pills will be the most expensive at $1.9 billion, followed by sterilizations at $1.4 billion, condoms $888 million, injectables $594 million, and IUDs $278 million. Estimated costs for commodities purchased in the U.S. show IUDs and condoms to be significantly more expensive, but pills as cheaper. With donors paying for approximately 25% of public sector commodity costs, developing country governments will need to pay $4.2 billion of total costs in the absence of increased commercial/private sector and donor support.
[Unpublished] 1987. 7 p.During the July 21-24 trip to Burundi, discussions were held about possible Association for Voluntary Surgical Contraception (AVSC) assistance in creating a training center at the University Hospital which could serve as a site for training medical personnel from Burundi and other French-speaking African nations. Practical training is urgently needed at this time to allow health personnel to feel comfortable about dispensing a wide range of contraceptive methods/information. A great need exists for the training of nurses in IUD insertion and for copper-T commodities. Family planning method acceptance is growing steadily: the number is said to double every 6 months. As yet, voluntary surgical contraception plays a minor role and is available only at a limited number of centers. As previously reported, several donors, including the UN Fund for Population Assistance, World Bank, and the African Development Bank, are involved in activities/proposals related to maternal/child health and family planning. The major objective of AVSC assistance to the Ministry of Public Health is to increase access to VSC by integrating quality services into ongoing maternal/child health/family planning activities in 4 regional referral hospitals. The project is expected to last for 4 years with a total budget of slightly over $200,000. During this visit, the basics were worked out for a program in which AVSC would provide assistance for training 10 physicians/year in minilap (both postpartum and interval) using local anesthesia. Trainees would be residents and interns and, if possible, physicians from government facilities. It is hoped that a training program document can be developed for presentation at the December 1987 meeting of AVSC's International Committee. The site visit was useful to the effort of moving the pending project with the Ministry of Public Health along and for discussing possible cooperation with the University Hospital. Program success is likely for several reasons: the Ministry of Public Health generally is favorable and supportive; chances for "institutionalization" are good; the basic hospital infrastructure is sound; and the rising demand for VSC is recognized by health officials and service providers.