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Report on evaluation of the role of population factors in the planning process through the application of development models.
Bangkok, Thailand, UN, 1978. (Asian Population Studies Series No. 37; ST/ESCAP/64) 50 pThe basic objectives of the study are: 1) to encourage and motivate country planners to improve their development plans by integrating population factors into development planning and policies; 2) to provide planners with appropriate procedures to consider the short-term and long-term implications of population growth for fixing priorities and setting targets in various development sectors; 3) to provide guidelines for considering the implications of various socioeconomic programs and policies for fertility, mortality, and migration; and 4) to serve as a guideline for training and educational purposes. The major models which have been developed by research teams to portray the interaction between demographic, economic, and social variables are analyzed and evaluated with regard to their potential usefulness in development planning. The study deals with the following prototypes and their country-specific applications: 1) TEMPO 1 and TEMPO 2; 2) the Long Range Planning Model series of models; 3) the FAC/UNFPA MODEL; 4) the model developed by the Population Dynamics Group of the University of Illinois; and 5) the BACHUE model. Concerning choice of model structure and application to planning, 3 methodological questions are considered: the choice of a central core for the model; the trade-off between simplicity and complexity; and the choice of a supply or demand orientation. It is concluded that the construction of a model is as important as its application to the policy making and planning processes of countries. In general this would be facilitated if the model were designed and developed in the country in which it was to be used. Such models would be more closely attuned to country-specific problems and the creation of the model would create a cadre of people within the country capable of operating and adapting the model.