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    UNAIDS report sketches scenarios for Africa.

    Galloway MR

    AIDS Bulletin. 2005 Jun; 14(2):3-4.

    What we do now and how we choose to do it will affect Africa’s future and future generations. It seems a clear and obvious truism – yet not always one easy to live by in a world of instant need and gratification. UNAIDS has recently released a new report entitled AIDS in Africa: Three scenarios to 2025 which sketches three very different scenarios for AIDS in Africa and points out that our actions today determine our future tomorrow in terms of this epidemic and our continent. UNAIDS is quick to point out that the scenarios are not predictions rather they are stories about our possible futures and how the epidemic may develop. The aim is to highlight the various choices that will face African governments and societies in the coming decades, and to unpack the many broader factors that fuel the epidemic and examine how these interact. What is very stark is that depending on our actions today up to 43 million infections could be averted over the next 20 years – roughly equal to the population of South Africa. The report faces up the reality that the death toll will rise no matter what, but it is still possible to influence how much it rises. The scenarios, presented as stories, were developed by a team of people over a two-year period and involved collaboration with the African Union, the African Development Bank, the UN Economic Commission for Africa, the United Nations Development Programme, the World Bank and Royal Dutch Shell. They look at the possible course of the epidemic by 2025 when “no one under the age of 50 will remember a time without AIDS”. The stories are intended to be provocative and to stimulate debate and thus more informed decision making. (excerpt)
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