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Bulletin of the World Health Organization. 2008 Jul; 86(7):568–576.The objective of this study was to estimate the financial resources required to achieve the 2015 targets for global tuberculosis (TB) control, which have been set within the framework of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The Global Plan to Stop TB, 2006-2015 was developed by the Stop TB Partnership. It sets out what needs to be done to achieve the 2015 targets for global TB control, based on WHO's Stop TB Strategy. Plan costs were estimated using spreadsheet models that included epidemiological, demographic, planning and unit cost data. A total of US$ 56 billion is required during the period 2006-2015 (93% for TB-endemic countries, 7% for international technical agencies), increasing from US$ 3.5 billion in 2006 to US$ 6.7 billion in 2015. The single biggest cost (US$ 3 billion per year) is for the treatment of drug-susceptible cases in DOTS programmes. Other major costs are treatment of patients with multi- and extensively drug-resistant TB (MDR-TB and XDR-TB), collaborative TB/HIV activities, and advocacy, communication and social mobilization. Low-income countries account for 41% of total funding needs and 65% of funding needs for TB/HIV. Middle-income countries account for 72% of the funding needed for treatment of MDR-TB and XDR-TB. African countries require the largest increases in funding. Achieving the 2015 global targets set for TB control requires a major increase in funding. To support resource mobilization, comprehensive and costed national plans that are in line with the Global Plan to Stop TB are needed, backed up by robust assessments of the funding that can be raised in each country from domestic sources and the balance that is needed from donors. (author's)
Washington, D.C., International Monetary Fund, 2005 Apr. 13 p. (Economic Issues No. 34)Twenty-eight heavily indebted poor countries (HIPCs) were receiving debt relief under the HIPC Initiative by mid-2004, eight years after the Initiative was launched by the IMF and the World Bank and endorsed by governments around the world, and about four years after it was enhanced to provide more substantial and faster debt relief. The HIPC Initiative, the first coordinated effort by the international financial community to reduce the foreign debt of the world's poorest countries, was based on the theory that economic growth in these countries was being stifled by heavy debt burdens, making it virtually impossible for them to escape poverty. However, most of the empirical research to date on the effects of debt on growth has lumped together a diverse group of countries, including both emerging market and low-income countries; the literature focusing on the impact of debt on low-income countries (those with 2001 per capita gross national income of less than US$865) is scant. The paper on which this pamphlet is based, "External Debt, Public Investment, and Growth in Low-Income Countries" (IMF Working Paper No. 03/249, December 2003), addresses this gap in the literature. The paper also appeared as a chapter in a book published by the IMF in 2004, Helping Countries Develop: The Role of Fiscal Policy, edited by Sanjeev Gupta, Benedict Clements, and Gabriela Inchauste. It assesses empirically the effects of external debt on growth in low-income countries and analyzes the channels through which these effects are transmitted, giving special attention to the indirect effects of external debt on growth through its impact on public investment. Readers seeking a more detailed description of our analysis and of the literature on debt and growth are directed to the original working paper, which is available free of charge at www.imf.org/pubs. Brenda Szittya prepared the text for this pamphlet. (excerpt)
New Haven, Connecticut, Yale University, Economic Growth Center, 1996 Sep. 28 p. (Center Discussion Paper No. 762)This paper reviews the development experience since the 1980's and finds room for guarded optimism about what we can learn from it. Firstly, a global consensus is emerging on the need for macro-economic stability through prudent fiscal, monetary and foreign exchange policies. However, at the micro or structural level, while governments need to decentralize their decision- making authority more fully than they have thus far, in reaction to the recent reappraisal of the East Asian model there is some danger that development policy will swing too far in rejecting liberalization and returning to government intervention. Secondly, the paper points out that, while there exists a well-recognized causal nexus between exports and growth, the reverse causation also holds, i.e. domestic growth patterns conditioned by education and R&D expenditures and policies determine whether or not a country can take full advantage of existing export opportunities. Finally, although fast-disbursing policy-based loans have not been as successful as they could be, largely because of the World Bank's chosen modus operandi, they represent potentially highly effective instruments that should not be abandoned. Rather, the Bank should help render such loans more fully "owned" by recipients, replace country-specific lending quotas by aid ballooning related to carefully worked out reform packages, and develop a better division of labor with other multilateral and bilateral donors. (author's)
Finance and Development. 2005 Jun; 42(2): p..But while the international community agrees that something needs to be done, how best to go about it remains the subject of vigorous debate. No one questions that human capital—in the form of better health status and higher levels of educational attainment—is a major building block for sustaining the productivity growth that would, in turn, spur broad-based economic growth in developing countries. But inefficiencies in the public provision of these services—due, for instance, to corruption or a lack of skilled workers—have led some to question whether just increasing public spending is the best route, especially given the role of other factors (such as income per capita) in determining social indicators. For that reason, we undertook a study to try to help policymakers evaluate the effects of different policies on social indicators and growth. This article examines our results, which show that while higher spending on health and education is worthwhile, poor governance and macroeconomic instability may offset the positive impact of social spending on growth and human development. But first it is helpful to review what past research has taught us. (excerpt)
New York, New York, United Nations Development Programme [UNDP], HIV and Development Programme, 1993 Nov. , 35 p.This UN Development Program paper identifies and analyzes the principle manners in which HIV impacts upon economic and social systems. A model is developed to show that the main effects will be on the level of net savings, with consequences for the rate of investment, the rate of economic growth, and the level of gross national product per capita; and on the size of the effective labor supply. This latter impact upon the absolute supply of labor will affect what can be produced and under which conditions of production. The author establishes the economic case for effective policies for HIV prevention and places his analysis within the framework of the socioeconomic impact of the epidemic. Moreover, he reviews a selection of methodologies and empirical evidence on the impact of HIV upon households, productive sectors, and government. The economic and social impacts of the HIV epidemic are shown to be pervasive, affecting all sectors of economic activity and all segments of society. A case is made for focusing policy interventions at the levels of the community and households, where the costs of HIV will be concentrated, and where policies for behavioral change need to be made effective.
In: To cure all hunger. Food policy and food security in Sudan, edited by Simon Maxwell. London, England, Intermediate Technology Publications, 1991. 114-47.The association of food security with income levels, and the relationship of food security to economic variables and policies, particularly those that affect income distribution and growth are examined. The results are based on a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier analysis. Food-security issues were explored by using the simplest demand-based multiplier analysis based on the only available but out-of-date SAM. The 1978-79 SAM data base for Sudan was modified to include a disaggregation of sorghum into modern and traditional dura for the source of the SAM. There was no easy way in which the urban and rural income groups shown in the SAM could be associated with food insecurity. It was estimated that 40% of the population in Sudan is poor and food-insecure. Food insecurity could be linked to income levels through the data provided by the Household Income and Expenditure Survey for the years 1978-80. Another result from the multiplier analysis was the impact of activity injections on household income. Equivalent injections into the economy through additional investment or additional net exports or other sources of exogenous final demand had much more powerful income multiplier effects in the traditional agricultural sectors, particularly livestock and forestry, than in the industrial and nontraded sectors. Additionally, the highest absolute values of the income multipliers for the traditional agricultural and the labor-intensive non traded activities were for rural households with less than S-9000/year income measured in 1986-87 prices, covering most of the food-insecure groups in the rural areas. The results provide an independent quantification of some of the major structural relationships affecting growth, income distribution, and food security in Sudan within the constraints of the data and the assumptions of the multiplier model.
African Alternative Framework to Structural Adjustment Programmes for Socio-Economic Recovery and Transformation (AAF-SAP).
Addis Adaba, Ethiopia, ECA, 1989. iii, 60 p. (E/ECA/CM.15/6/Rev. 3)The African Alternative Framework to Structural Adjustment Programs for Socioeconomic Recovery and Transformation (AAF-SAP) was adopted in Addis Ababa at an African Ministers Meeting on Economic Planning, Development and Finance held on April 10, 1989. This document evolved as a reaction to the failure of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund's structural adjustment programs (SAP) on Africa's social, economic and financial institutions. Given the reality of Africa's socioeconomic structures and the region's development objectives, the orthodox structural adjustment programs are invalid models for weak and disarticulate infrastructures as found in the majority of African countries. This paradigm emphasizes the use of competitive-domestic and external-market forces and the programs concentrate on achieving internal and external financial balances, totally at the expense of basic structural factors so badly needed for socioeconomic growth. These strategies to date have been unable to bring either economic recovery or socioeconomic transformation to the region. A new holistic framework for structural adjustment is proposed based on 3 macro- entities: 1) operative forces; 2) available resources; and 3) needs to be catered to. The African alternative includes a number of improvements in policy areas: 1) financial management and efficiency of public enterprises and tighter financial accountability; 2) agricultural incentives; 3) export diversification; and 4) external debt management. There are several areas in the proposed framework that still need a consensus; these include: the issue of complementarity in exchange rate and trade policies; the fallacy of composition with respect to competitive stimulation on traditional export crops in African countries and the sustainability of non-autonomous resources to support adjustment in all African countries. Not only must African countries adapt and use AAF-SAP in designing their adjustment programs, but donors must create the conditions for the successful implementation of such programs. (Author's modified).
Report of the Second Study Directors' Meeting on Comparative Study on Demographic-Economic Interrelationships for Selected ESCAP Countries, 5-10 March 1986, Bangkok, Thailand.
Bangkok, Thailand, U.N. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, 1986. 217, vii p.This volume reports on the 2nd Study Directors' Meeting on the project "Comparative Study on Demographic-Economic Interrelationships for Selected ESCAP Countries." National study teams were organized for Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand; study teams reviewed their respective countries' demographic and economic situations and existing work on demographic-economic modeling as well as specifying preliminary models to be developed. The 1st study directors' meeting held in 1984 reviewed and discussed demographic-economic models to be developed for the 3 countries with a view to identifying appropriate demographic-economic models for these countries. At the 2nd meeting held in 1986, participants presented country reports for Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand as well as reports comparing 1) the 3 country-specific demographic submodels, 2) economic submodels, and 3) sumulations with the demographic-economic submodels. Draft reports are presented in their original forms as submitted by study directors.
[Papers presented at the First Study Director's Meeting on Comparative Study on Demographic-Economic Interrelationship for Selected ESCAP Countries, 29 October-2 November 1984, Bangkok, Thailand]
[Unpublished, 1984].  p.This study group report 1) investigates quantitatively the process of population change and socioeconomic development to identify policy recommendations for Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand and 2) examines the application of the "systems approach" and econometric technics for population and development planning. These country-specific studies will help to clarify the interrelationships between demographic and socioeconomic factors in the development process of each participating country and the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) region in general. The meeting 1) reviewed major demographic and economic issues in each participating country, 2) reviewed extant work on model building in each country, and 3) outlined a preliminary system design. Several economic-demographic models are discussed. The participants recommended that 1) the models focus of similar issues such as migration and income distribution and 2) countries should adopt, whenever possible, a similar modeling methodology. Participants agreed that models should be based, where possible, on a base-year Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). This poses no problems in Thailand or Malaysia as SAMs are already available for these countries. However, no SAM is currently available for the Philippines. Participants further recommended that the 3 models could be improved by greater collaboration among study directors during model formulation and estimation. Participants also expressed concern about the size of the computing budget and thought that models could be improved by an increased budget for computer time.
Population Research Leads. 1985; (19):1-15.The Population Division's evaluation of the role of population factors in the planning process through the application of economic-demographic models shows that procedures for considering the short and long-term implications of population growth can be significantly improved. The Division's research projects demonstrate that models can help planners to achieve an efficient allocation of scarce resources, set clear-cut national objectives and provide a national sense of political and social purpose. There are many advantages in applying economic-demographic models to development planning in order to integrate population factors within the development process, yet care must be taken in adopting and/or applying a certain model at the national level. Aside from the question of adopting a model, the question of the applicability and application of models is emphasized. The choice of model structure is discussed in terms of 4 major issues: 1) the choice of a central core; 2) the trade-off between simplicity and complexity and the appropriate degree of endogeneity; 3) the choice of a demand or supply orientation; and 4) the criteria for selecting a particular model for use. A representative selection of economic demographic models is presented. Included are the TEMPO (designed to illustrate the benefits of reduced fertility) and Long-Range Planning Models (LAPM--designed to illustrate the implications of policy assumptions for economic development, particularly in regard to health and education), both developed by the US government. Also described are the BACHUE and the UN Fund for Populations Activities (UNFPA)/ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) models. It is argued that these latter models offer the greatest promise as tools for planning in the ESCAP Region, at the present time. As the BACHUE model is primarily concerned with employment and the distribution of income and the UNFPA/FAO model with agriculture, incorporating both into the planning process could be desirable.
Report on evaluation of the role of population factors in the planning process through the application of development models.
Bangkok, Thailand, UN, 1978. (Asian Population Studies Series No. 37; ST/ESCAP/64) 50 pThe basic objectives of the study are: 1) to encourage and motivate country planners to improve their development plans by integrating population factors into development planning and policies; 2) to provide planners with appropriate procedures to consider the short-term and long-term implications of population growth for fixing priorities and setting targets in various development sectors; 3) to provide guidelines for considering the implications of various socioeconomic programs and policies for fertility, mortality, and migration; and 4) to serve as a guideline for training and educational purposes. The major models which have been developed by research teams to portray the interaction between demographic, economic, and social variables are analyzed and evaluated with regard to their potential usefulness in development planning. The study deals with the following prototypes and their country-specific applications: 1) TEMPO 1 and TEMPO 2; 2) the Long Range Planning Model series of models; 3) the FAC/UNFPA MODEL; 4) the model developed by the Population Dynamics Group of the University of Illinois; and 5) the BACHUE model. Concerning choice of model structure and application to planning, 3 methodological questions are considered: the choice of a central core for the model; the trade-off between simplicity and complexity; and the choice of a supply or demand orientation. It is concluded that the construction of a model is as important as its application to the policy making and planning processes of countries. In general this would be facilitated if the model were designed and developed in the country in which it was to be used. Such models would be more closely attuned to country-specific problems and the creation of the model would create a cadre of people within the country capable of operating and adapting the model.
In: Council for Social Development. Aspects of population policy in India. New Delhi, Council for Social Development, 1971. p. 1-5Demographic research is gaining prominence in centrally controlled economies of newly independent countries, with emphasis on the determinants of employment. The upsurge in interest in demographic analysis has been hastened by international agencies which have often had the effect of forcing the pace of long-term planning. Vital areas for demographic research in developing countries include studies of the transfer of agricultural to nonagricultural population and the implications for consumption and domestic saving, rural-urban transfers of population, and public consumption as a concomitant of economic development.
In: United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP]. Modelling economic and demographic development. New York, United Nations, 1983. 117-223. (Asian Population Studies Series No. 54)This study uses a longterm demographic-economic model to analyze the effects of the rapid aging of the Japanese population on various aspects of the economy and government programs. It is assumed that the quantitative analysis of the interrelationships between age-structural changes and the socioeconomic system provides a useful basis for Japanese government planners to formulate policy measures to cope with problems arising in connection with an aging population. The study draws on population, economic, and social security submodels in a series of simulation experiments. In the Standard Case, the total fertility rate falls due to economic progress and the rising age at 1st marriage, mortality improves as a result of increased per capita medical expenditures, and population grows at a diminishing rate after peaking at 131.3 million in 2007. The model further projects an increase in the percentage of the population age 65 years and over from 9.1% in 1980 to 23.9% in 2021 and a corresponding decrease in the population ages 15-64 years from 67.4% to 61.8%, Per capita real GNP is projected to continue to rise in the 1980-2025 period. However, the decreasing growth rate of the labor force, increasing financial resources for social security programs, and decline in the average hours worked by those in the labor force are expected to produce an economic slow-down, particularly in the early part of the 21st century. 5 policy measures are proposed to cope with this lowered rate of economic growth: 1) acceleration of the speed of technological progress to compensate for the shortage of young workers; 2) extension of retirement age to ease financial pressures on public pension schemes and retain the economic contributions of aged workers; 3) updating of the skills of aged workers through government vocational retraining programs; 4) the modification of public pension schemes to make benefit provision more selective, and adjustment of the amount of benefits paid out by extending the pensionable age for each scheme; and 5) review of the effectiveness and efficiency of various public medical plans, with attention to unnecessary use of medical services and improvement of preventive interventions.
In: United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP]. Modelling economic and demographic development. New York, United Nations, 1983. 7-51. (Asian Population Studies Series No. 54)An economic-demographic model for Indonesia was constructed to explore the effects of population changes on economic growth. 3 simulations were computed for the 1980-2010 period on the basis of different assumptions regarding growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) and fertility trends. Projection 1 was based on high growth and high fertility (HGHF), projection 2 on low growth and high fertility (LGHF), and projection 3 on low growth and low fertility (LGLF). The HGHF simulation projects an increase in the rate of growth of the GDP from 8% in 1980 to 14% by 2010, whereas the 2 other simulations project increases reaching a peak of around 11% by 1995-2000 and then declining slightly due to slower growth in the manufacturing sector. Population growth will accelerate in 1980-90 due to a faster decline in mortality caused by the growth of GDP, but will then decline from 2.48% in 1990 to 2.05% in 2010. The overall growth under HGHF conditions is slower. The HGHF, LGHF, and LGLF simulations project a total population by 2010 of 289 million, 300 million, and 245 million, respectively. Under high growth, employment in agriculture will rapidly decline from 63% to 22% during 1980-2010, whereas the decline under low growth conditions is only to 34%. A lower growth of GDP will slow down fertility decline, increase population growth, and consequently speed up entry into the labor force. If fertility measures are taken and fertility declines by 50% in 1970-2000, per government projections, labor force conditions will be more favorable. Under HGHF foreign funds are required by the economy until the year 2000, whereas under low growth they are required only until 1995. It is assumed that these projections on the interrelationship between demographic and socioeconomic factors have utility as a basis for formulating a conceptual framework for population policy.