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  1. 1

    Population projections: methodology of the United Nations.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs

    New York, N.Y., United Nations, 1984. 85 p. (Population Studies, No. 83; ST/ESA/SER.A/83)

    Upon a recommendation of the Population Commission, at its 20th session in January 1979, the Secretary General of the United Nations convened an Ad Hoc Group of Experts on Demographic Projections from 16 to 19 November 1981 at the UN Headquarters to discuss the methodology used for demographic projections and to consider the relationship of demographic projections to development change and population policies. The expert Group was also requested to provide guidelines and make recommendations to the Secretary-General on how to incorporate demographic changes into the methodology to be used for the next round of world population projections to be prepared by the UN Population Division in collaboration with the regional commissions. The papers prepared by members of the Expert Group as well as those prepared by the Population Division are reproduced in this publication. The recommendations of the Expert Group and a summary of the papers and discussion are also included. The topics addressed in this publication are: 1) problems in making population projections; 2) integration of socioeconomic factors in population projections; 3) population projections as an aid to the formulation and implementation of population policies; 4) current projection assumptions for the United Nations demographic projections; 5) expectations and progressive analysis in fertility prediction; 6) use of the intermediate factors in fertility projections; 7) family planning and population projections; 8) progress of work on a fertility simulation model for population projections at the UN Secretariat; 9) mortality trends and prospects in developing countries: some "best data" indications; 10) the urban and city population projections of the UN: data, definitions and methods; 11) a critical assessment of urban-rural projections with special reference to UN methods; and 12) projections in Europe: some problems.
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  2. 2

    Report of the Expert Group Meeting on Fertility and Mortality Levels, Patterns and Trends in Africa and their Policy Implications.

    United Nations. Economic Commission for Africa. Population Division

    In: United Nations Economic Commission for Africa [UNECA]. Population dynamics: fertility and mortality in Africa. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, UNECA, 1981 May. 1-31. (ST/ECA/SER.A/1; UNFPA PROJ. No. RAF/78/P17)

    The Expert Group Meeting on Fertility and Mortality Levels, Patterns and Trends in Africa, held in Monrovia late in 1976, examined the various aspects of the interrelationships of fertility and mortality to development process and planning in Africa. Focus in this report of the Expert Group Meeting is on the following: background to fertility and mortality in Africa; usefulness and relevance of existing methodology for collecting and processing and for analyzing fertility and mortality data; fertility and mortality levels and patterns in Africa -- regional studies and country studies; fertility trends and differentials in Africa; mortality trends and differentials; biological and socio-cultural aspects of infertility and sterility; the significance of breast feeding for fertility and mortality; nutrition, disease and mortality in young children; evolution of causes of death and the use of related statistics in mortality studies in Africa; and fertility and mortality in national development. It was suggested that a strategy for development with equity must direct itself, among other things, to the issue of how to monitor progress in the elimination of underdevelopment, poverty, malnutrition, poor health, bad housing, poor education and employment through the use of indicators which measured changes in those variables at the national and local levels. In order to achieve development with equity, it was obvious that demographers and policymakers should ensure that there was regular monitoring of socioeconomic differentials in mortality and morbidity rates since such differentials essentially measured inequality in a society. The following were included among the recommendations made: recognizing that fertility and mortality data for a majority of African countries are now 20 years out of date, efforts should be directed toward collecting and analyzing fertility and mortality data by the use of both direct and indirect methods; and international and national organizations should support country efforts to improve the supply of data and analytical work on census and other existing data.
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  3. 3

    Changing approaches to population problems.

    Wolfson M

    Paris, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Development Centre, 1978. 193 p. (Development Centre Studies)

    The World Population Conference which took place in Bucharest in 1974 witnessed many debates and rhetorical controversies over the role of family planning programs in Third World countries and their relation to development. This report is the result of a collaborative study realized by the Development Centre and the World Bank which investigates how developing countries, as well as aid agencies, are thinking about population problems and, as a consequence, about population assistance in the "post-Bucharest era." The report includes detailed surveys of 12 developing countries, representing Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Middle East. It also interviews and reports on the activities of a large number of population assistance agencies. The roles of international organizations such as the UNFPA, the UN population division and the World Bank itself are assessed in terms of their impact on national development through population control efforts. Reviews of assistance provided to developing nations by nongovernmental agencies, private foundations and developed nations are also presented. Each country paper presented provides an overview of the country's demographic characteristics; a summary of history of population policies, pre- and post-Bucharest era; an overview of population strategies past and present, their integration with other-sector activities; family planning program administration; and a survey of all forms of population assistance available and utilized by the country. Macro-level analyses of changes in family planning assistance by organizations since Bucharest, as well as micro-level, country-specific studies of how each nation has assimilated these changes and has developed a specific population policy are provided.
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  4. 4

    Draft National Health Policy: comments and suggestions of the Indian Medical Association.

    Indian Medical Association

    JOURNAL OF THE INDIAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION. 1979 Mar 16; 72(6):137-43, 148.

    The International Conference on Primary Health Care called for urgent and effective national and international action to develop and implement primary health care throughout the world. All government agencies should support primary health care by channelling increased technical and financial support to health care systems. Any national health policy designed to provide for its people should recognise the right to health care as a fundamental right of people. The sociocultural environment of the people should be upgraded as a part of health care. The government's expenditure on health should be regarded as an investment, not as a consumption. Health should be a purchasable commodity. Medical education should be reoriented to the needs of the nation. The government should establish as its ultimate goal the provision of scientific medical service to every citizen. Industrial health and mental health disciplines should establish clear-cut methodologies to achieve the same objectives as medical science. Practitioners of indigenous systems of medicine should be allowed to practice only those systems in which they are qualified and trained. Integration of the modern and traditional systems has failed. In order to encourage people to adopt small family size, facilities for maternal and child welfare clinics, coupled with immunisation and nutrition programs, are needed.
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  5. 5

    Botswana's self-help community.

    Endrst J

    IDRC Reports. 1979 Sep; 8(3):12-3.

    Gaborone, the new capital of Botswana, has grown rapidly from 600 inhabitants in 1966 to 30,000 currently. People squatted in what was to have been a temporary labor camp zoned for industrial development. The Naledi camp was illegal until 1975 when the government dropped its zoning category and, with aid from the Canadian International Development Agency, began laying plans for turning 116 hectares of squatter land into 2000 individual plots housing 10,000 people. Naledi is now a suburban housing development that combines modern toilet facilities, street lighting, 2 primary schools, a health clinic, and a community center with traditional Tswana culture. A Certificate of Rights must be obtained for a plot of ground. The owner must construct a house within 12 months and pay a levy for road maintenance, water supply, and trash pickup. The Self-Help Housing Agency provides loans for building materials, payable in 15 years. The first thing a Naledi house-owner does is have it blessed by a minister of 1 of some 40 African churches in the settlement. The community is in the formative stages of organization. There is no single headman and no police. Elders are sometimes called upon to settle disputes. Naledi residents often view their plot as their second home. Many have their primary dwellings, and their head of cattle, in their native villages, living in Gabarone solely for economic reasons.
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  6. 6

    Rural community development and planning: promise and reality.

    United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs

    International Social Development Review, No. 2, 1970. p. 28-33.

    Community development is concerned with stimulating people in decisions to change. Participation and involvement of village members enhances the development process by including them in the change. The question is how to organize administrative and executive machinery without losing local participation. Much depends on individual staff members skill at coordination at all levels of village life. Community development should fulfill certain goals expressed in national development policies. Planning for the fullest use of existing resources, acting as a communication medium, promoting volunteer organizations, modernization, encouraging civic responsibility, using labor surplus, creating conditions for social mobilization, aligning national and local aspirations, and paving way for local government should be the goals of a plan for community development.
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  7. 7

    The World Bank and poverty.

    Lipton M; Shakow A

    Finance and Development. 1982 Jun; 19(2):16-9.

    During the 1970s it was World Bank policy to use its funds to raise the productivity and living standards of the poor. It has increased its lending for sector and subsectors considered to offer the most direct benefits to the poor such as rural development, population, health, and nutrition. Projects with particular emphasis on poverty have benefitted large numbers of poor people and have had good economic rates of return. Lending for rural projects increased in the 1970s from US$2.6 billion in 1969-73 to over US$13 billion in 1978-81; rural development projects audited in 1979 benfitted 660 small farmers for every US$1 million loaned compared with 47 farmers/US$1 million in other agricultural projects. Some problems are: 1) low-risk technical packages appropriate for poor farmers in semi-arid rainfed areas are not readily available; 2) the Bank's rural development strategy seeks mainly to raise the production of small farms, but other aspects need to be emphasized; 3) domestic pricing and postharvest policies often undermine the success of projects aimed at the rural poor; and 4) success in rural development often rests on sociological and cultural factors, difficult areas that deserve more attention. For urban areas the Bank has strongly endorsed providing "sites and sources" instead of structures; since 1972, 52 Bank projects centered on urban shelter involving US$1.6 billion have been undertaken. Cost recovery is established at 66-95%. About 5% of Bank lending is for education and despite the importance of population, health, and nutrition, these areas absorb less than 1% of the Bank's total lending program. Only US$400 million in population loans were made to 13 countries in the 1970s and only recently have separate health projects been started. Emphasis for the 1980s must be on rural development, urban shelter, primary education, health, education, and population.
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