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Population and Development Review. 1984 Mar; 10(1):103-26.This paper presents some of the results of projections prepared by the World Bank in 1983 for all the world's countries. The projections (presented against a background of recent demographic trends as estimated by the United Nations) trace the approach of each individual country to a stationary state. Implications of the underlying fertility and mortality assumptions are shown mainly in terms of time trends of total population to the year 2100, annual rates of growth, and absolute annual increments. These indices are shown for the largest individual countries, for world regions, and for country groupings according to economic criteria. The detailed predictive performance of such projections is likely to be poor but the projections indicate orders of magnitude characterizing certain aggregate demographic phenomena whose occurrence is highly probable and set clearly interpretable reference points useful in discussing contemporary issues of policy. (author's)
New York, United Nations, 1984. 108 p. (Population Studies, No. 85; ST/ESA/SER.A/85)The 3 parts of this report on world, regional, and international developments in the field of population, present a summary of levels, trends, and prospects in mortality, fertility, nuptiality, international migration, population growth, age structure, and urbanization; consider some important issues in the interrelationships between economic, social, and demographic variables, with special emphasis on the problems of food supply and employment; and deal with the policies and perceptions of governments on population matters. The 1st part of the report is based primarily on data compiled by the UN Population Division. The 2nd part is based on information provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO) and the International Labor Organization (ILO), as well as that compiled by the Population Division. The final part is based on information in the policy data bank maintained by the Population Division, including responses to the UN Fourth Population Inquiry among Governments. In 1975-80 the expectation of life at birth for the world was estimated at 57.2 years for both sexes combined. The corresponding figure for the developed and developing regions was 71.9 and 54.7 years, respectively. In 1975-80 the birthrate of the world was estimated at 28.9/1000 population and the gross reproduction rate was 1.91. These figures reflect considerable decline from the levels attained 25 years earlier: a crude birthrate of 38/1000 population and a gross reproduction rate of 2.44. World population grew from 2504 million in 1950 to 4453 million in 1983. Of the additional 1949 million people, 1645 million, or 84%, accrued to the less developed countries. The impact of population growth on economic development and social progress is not well understood. The governments of some developing countries still officially welcome a rapid rate of population growth. Many other governments see cause for concern in the need for the large increases in social expenditure, particularly for health and education, that accompany a young and growing population. Planners are concerned that the rapidly growing supply of labor, compounded by a trend toward rapid urbanization, may exceed that which the job market is likely to absorb. In the developed regions the prospect of a declining, or an aging, population is also cause for apprehension. There is a dearth of knowledge as to the impact of policies for altering the consequences of these trends. Many policies have been tried, in both developed and developing countries, to influence population growth and distribution, but the consequences of such policies have been difficult to assess. Frequently this problem arises because their primary objectives are not demographic in character.
New York, UNFPA, June 1979. (Report No. 13) 151 pThis report is intended to serve, and has already to some extent so served, as part of the background material used by the United Nations Fund for Population Activities to evaluate project proposals as they relate to basic country needs for population assistance to Thailand, and in broader terms to define priorities of need in working towards eventual self-reliance in implementing the country's population activities. The function of the study is to determine the extent to which activities in the field of population provide Thailand with the fundamental capacity to deal with major population problems in accordance with its development policies. The assessment of population activities in Thailand involves a 3-fold approach. The main body of the report examines 7 categories of population activities rather broadly in the context of 10 elements considered to reflect effect ve government action. The 7 categories of population activities are: 1) basic data collection; 2) population dynamics; 3) formulation and evaluation of population policies and programs; 4) implementation of policies; 5) family planning programs; 6) communication a and education; and 7) special programs. The 10 elements comprise: 1) decennial census of population, housing, and agriculture; 2) an effective registration system; 3) assessment of the implications of population trends; 4) formulation of a comprehensive national population policy; 5) implementation of action programs integrated with related programs of economic and social development; 6) continued reduction in the population growth rate; 7) effective utilization of the services of private and voluntary organizations in action programs; 8) a central administrative unit to coordinate action programs; 9) evaluation of the national capacity in technical training, research, and production of equipment and supplies; and 10) maintenance of continuing liason and cooperation with other countries and with regional and international organizations.
Speech delivered at the Harvard Institute for International Development, March 19, 1979.. 10.Overly optimistic reports of fertility decline overlook problems still to be faced and slow the momentum of population programs. Many developing countries which have enjoyed success in lowering birth rates have also lowered the priority of family planning programs. The U.S. Census Bureau predicts world population will reach between 5.9 and 6.8 billion by 2000. The decision to have a child is a complex one not totally understood by the scientific community. Family planning programs that succeed in one area, fail in another. Expensive programs fail while inexpensive ones succeed. Finding the right program for the right situation in the right country is a challenge still to be met.
.. Washington, D.C., U.S. General Accounting Office, June 23, 1977 65 p. (ID-77-3)Although the population policy of Ghana stresses integration of population control with national development policy, little actual integration has occurred. Development efforts encouraging small families will be more actively supported by USAID in the future. Ghana's high birth rate (3%) impedes social and economic development. As the mortality rate falls, the growth rate rises. The results of population growth include increased food imports, crowded health facilities, and a smaller number of eligible students in school. More than 70% of the people live in rural areas; 60% employment is in agriculture. Experience in the Danfa project showed family planning was more acceptable to rural people when integrated with other medical services.
Report (of the) Seminar on Population Problems in Africa, Cairo, United Arab Republic, October 29- November 10, 1962.
Cairo, U.A.R. (E/CN.14/186; E/CN. 9/CONF. 1963; 3(1):83.The purpose of the Seminar on Population Problems in Africa was to review demographic problems in context of economic and social planning plus obtain cooperation and coordination of demographic data collection, analysis, and estimation. Part 1 of the subsequent report discusses the commonalities between African countries including: 1) the rapid rate of population growth and the resultant strain it imposes on developing economies; 2) the high proportion of the population under age 15 which creates an inability for extensive capital investment in industry plus adding to education problems; and 3) the inherent problems in the increased rural to urban migration. Part 2 of the report summarizes discussions on 1) geographic distribution of population, internal migration and urbanization in Africa; 2) fertility, mortality, international migration and population growth; 3) demographic aspects of manpower problems and demographic factors affecting economic development; and 4) improvement of basic demographic statistics via registration systems, survey, and census type data. Recommendations included the need for demographic research and projections as aids to economic and social development planning, including improved registration of birth, deaths and other vital statistics.