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[World population and development: an important change in perspective] Population mondiale et developpement: un important changement de perspective.
Problemes Economiques. 1984 Oct 24; (1895):26-32.The International Population Conference in Mexico City was much less controversial than the World Population Conference in Bucharest 10 years previously, in part because the message of Bucharest was widely accepted and in part because of changes that occurred in the demographic and economic situations in the succeeding decade. The UN medium population projection for 1985 has been proved quite accurate; it is not as alarming as the high projection but still represents a doubling of world population in less than 40 years. The control of fertility upon which the medium projection was predicated is well underway. The movement from high to low rates of fertility and mortality began in the 18th century in the industrial countries and lasted about 1 1/2 centuries during which the population surplus was dispersed throughout the world, especially in North and South America. The 2nd phase of movement from high to low rates currently underway in the developing countries has produced a far greater population increase. The proportion of the population in the developed areas of Europe, North America, the USSR, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand will decline from about 1/3 of the 2.5 billion world population of 1950 to 1/4 of the 3.7 billion of 1985, to 1/5 of the 4.8 billion of 2000, and probably 1/7 of the 10 billion when world population stabilizes at the end of the next century. The growth rates of developing countries are not homogeneous; the populations of China and India have roughly doubled in the past 35 years while that of Latin America has multiplied by 2 1/2. The population of Africa more than doubled in 35 years and will almost triple by 2025. The number of countries with over 50 million inhabitants, 9 in 1950, will increase from 19 in 1985 to 32 in 2025. The process of urbanization is almost complete in the industrialized countries, with about 75% of the population urban in 1985, but urban populations will continue to grow rapidly in the developing countries as rural migration is added to natural increase. The number of cities with 10 million inhabitants has increased from 2 to 13 between 1950 and 1985, and is expected to reach 25 by 2000, with Mexico City, Sao Paulo, and Shanghai the world's largest cities. The peak rate of world population growth was reached in the 1960s, with annual increases of 2.4%. In 1980-85 in the developed and developing worlds respectively the rates of population growth were .7% and 2.0%/year; total fertility rates were 2.05 and 4.2, and the life expectancies at birth were 72.4 and 57.0. Considerable variations occurred in individual countries. Annual rates of growth in 1980-85 were 2.4% in Latin America, 3.0% in Africa, 2.2% in South Asia and 1.2% in East Asia. Today only Iran among high fertility countries pursues a pronatalist policy. Since Bucharest, it has become evident to developing and developed countries alike that population control and economic development must go hand in hand.
[Population policy in the Third World eight years after Bucharest: hopes and realities] Les politiques de population dans le Tiers Monde huit ans apres Bucarest: espoirs et realites.
Revue Tiers Monde. 1983 Apr-Jun; 24(94):277-304.2 events of the past 2 decades have been of vital importance in the history of the human race: the slowing of the very high rates of population growth and the massive interventionism of governments in the demographic domain. This article describes the current status of population policies in the Third World, contrasting them to the goals and objectives expressed in the Plan of Action of the World Population Conference in Bucharest. 5 major sections consider the perceptions and policies of governments regarding population growth; morbidity and mortality; fertility, spatial redistribution and internal migration; and international migration. It is concluded that the objectives of the Plan of Action were sometimes attained, sometimes surpassed, and sometimes merely forgotten. National population policies have tended to be both general and diverse, not focusing solely on antinatalist interventions. The concept of integration of demographic policy into development policy has furnished a theoretical and practical basis of compromise between those who see development as the best means of limiting fertility and those who view fertility control as a prerequisite for development. Integration in the actual implementation of policies has been less frequently achieved. Programs to control fertility have had characteristics out of keeping with the spirit or letter of the Plan of Action, such as recourse to coercion on family size and careful restrictions on geographic mobility. Among some of the poorest countries, the urgency of controlling demographic growth in order to facilitate economic development has eclipsed to some extent respect for individual rights. A new world demographic order is evolving, with the reduction in fertility rates accelerated by population policies covering most of the developing world. But the momentum of growth resulting from the very high rates of fertility in the past few decades means that world population will continue to increase for years into the future. When world population stabilizes at about 10 billion, the population of the currently industrialized nations will account for only about 13%, compared to the 25% of today.