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    032293

    Future prospects of the number and structure of the households in developing countries.

    Kono S

    In: Population prospects in developing countries: structure and dynamics, edited by Atsushi Otomo, Haruo Sagaza, and Yasuko Hayase. Tokyo, Japan, Institute of Developing Economies, 1985. 115-40, 329. (I.D.E. Statistical Data Series No. 46)

    This paper reviews the various methods of projecting future numbers of households, summarizes prospective major trends in the numbers of households and the average household size among the developing countries prepared by the UN Population Division in 1981, and analyzes the size structure of households among the developing countries in contrast to the developed nations. The purpose of this analysis is to prepare household projections by size (average number of persons in a household) for the developing countries. The headship rate method is now the most widely used procedure for projecting households. The headship rate denotes a ratio of the number of heads of households, classified by sex, age, and other demographic characteristics such as marital status, to the corresponding classes of population. When population projections have become available by sex, age, and other characteristics, the projected number of households is obtained by adding up over all classes the product of projected population and projected headship rate. In addition to the headship rate method, this paper also reviews other approaches, namely, simple household-to-population ratio method; life-table method, namely the Brown-Glass-Davidson models; vital statistics method by Illing; and projections by simulation. Experience indicates that the effect of changes in population by sex and age is usually the most important determinant of the change in the number of households and it would be wasteful if the household projections failed to employ readily population projections. Future changes in the number of households among the developing countries are very significant. According to the 1981 UN projections, the future increase in the number of households both in the developed and developing countries will far exceed that in population. In 1975-80 the annual average growth rate of households was 2.89% for the developing countries as a whole while that for population was 2.08%. In 1980-85, the growth rate for households for the developing countries will be 2.99%, while that for population will be 2.04%. In 1995-2000 the figure for household growth will be 2.89%, whereas that for population will be 1.77%. The past trend of fertility is the most important factor for the reduction of household size and it would continuously be the central factor. The increasing headship rates will be observed among the sex-age groups, except the young female groups, as a result of increasing nuclearization in households.
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