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In: Population prospects in developing countries: structure and dynamics, edited by Atsushi Otomo, Haruo Sagaza, and Yasuko Hayase. Tokyo, Japan, Institute of Developing Economies, 1985. 115-40, 329. (I.D.E. Statistical Data Series No. 46)This paper reviews the various methods of projecting future numbers of households, summarizes prospective major trends in the numbers of households and the average household size among the developing countries prepared by the UN Population Division in 1981, and analyzes the size structure of households among the developing countries in contrast to the developed nations. The purpose of this analysis is to prepare household projections by size (average number of persons in a household) for the developing countries. The headship rate method is now the most widely used procedure for projecting households. The headship rate denotes a ratio of the number of heads of households, classified by sex, age, and other demographic characteristics such as marital status, to the corresponding classes of population. When population projections have become available by sex, age, and other characteristics, the projected number of households is obtained by adding up over all classes the product of projected population and projected headship rate. In addition to the headship rate method, this paper also reviews other approaches, namely, simple household-to-population ratio method; life-table method, namely the Brown-Glass-Davidson models; vital statistics method by Illing; and projections by simulation. Experience indicates that the effect of changes in population by sex and age is usually the most important determinant of the change in the number of households and it would be wasteful if the household projections failed to employ readily population projections. Future changes in the number of households among the developing countries are very significant. According to the 1981 UN projections, the future increase in the number of households both in the developed and developing countries will far exceed that in population. In 1975-80 the annual average growth rate of households was 2.89% for the developing countries as a whole while that for population was 2.08%. In 1980-85, the growth rate for households for the developing countries will be 2.99%, while that for population will be 2.04%. In 1995-2000 the figure for household growth will be 2.89%, whereas that for population will be 1.77%. The past trend of fertility is the most important factor for the reduction of household size and it would continuously be the central factor. The increasing headship rates will be observed among the sex-age groups, except the young female groups, as a result of increasing nuclearization in households.
In: United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population projections: methodology of the United Nations. New York, N.Y., United Nations, 1984. 60-6. (Population Studies, No. 83; ST/ESA/SER.A/83)This paper offers suggestions for guiding the next projection's exercise at the United Nations in light of third world life tables which, although severely limited, are believed to be relatively reliable. Of prime importance is the suggestion that expectation of life at birth in a number of less developed areas has begun to overtake and surpass the lower levels of such measures among the populations of developed countries. Although this is the 1st such occurrence on record, it is not likely to be reversed. A major implication of these patterns is that the causal linkages which have historically connected levels and patterns of socioeconomic development with those of mortality have become greatly attenuated. It is safe to say that major new causal mechanisms for reducing mortality have come into play which demographers have yet to comprehend adequately for purposes of projection. Another suggestion is to increase attention to the specific status and performance of national public-sector health programs (including water supply and sanitation) key factors affecting the onset and scale of mortality downtrends during the postwar decades. In addition, increasingly close attention needs to be paid to political disturbances, affecting health-care programs financing and associated delivery systems. With few exceptions, differences between female and male life expectancies at birth have been rising in the sample areas under review, implying that the gains over time for females have been higher than those for males. This directional pattern at both ages is remarkably similar to what has been found to hold with notable consistency among developed countries since 1920. Its prevalence suggests a bench-mark for checing the projected longevity differentials between males and females in the next UN exercise; at a minimum, these should be compared with past directions and magnitudes of change. Added or new attention should be given to comparisons between developed country and less developed country mortality measures; to how such measures vary by age at given points of time and shift by age over time; to sex differentials of both mortality levels and changes; and to the rapidly growing stocks of information becoming available on leading correlates of deaths, survival and morbidity rates. Such attention will enhance the quality, relevance and reliability of the future work of the UN on population projections.