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  1. 1
    035077

    The new top 10 and other population vistas.

    Haupt A

    Population Today. 1986 Feb; 14(2):3, 8.

    The UN recently released its lastest population projection for 1985-2025. Although demographers remain uncertain about the future shape and rate of population growth, the UN figures are generally regarded as representing the state of the art in projection making. The UN makes medium, high, and low variant projections. According to the medium variant, the world population, in millions, will be 4,837 in 1985, 6,122 in 2000, 7,414 in 2015, and 8,206 in 2025. High and low variant projections, in millions, for 2025 are 9,088 and 7,358. The medium variant projection indicates that between 1985-2025 the population, in millions, will increase from 3,663-6,809 in the developing countries but only from 1,1754-1,396 in the developed countries. In other words, the proportion of the world's population residing in the developed countries will decrease from 24%-17% between 1985-2025. The world's growth rate will continue to decline as it has since it peaked at 2.1% in 1965-70. According to the medium variant, the projected growth rate for the world will be 1.63% between 1985-90, 1.58% between 1990-95, 1.38% between 2000-05, 1.18% between 2010-15, and 0.96 between 2020-25. The growth rate will decrease from 1.94%-1.10% for the developing countries and from 0.60%-0.29% for the developed countries between 1985-2025. The medium variant projections assume that the total fertility rate will decrease from 3.3 in 1985-90 to 2.8 in 2000-05 and to 2.4 in 2020-25. Respective figures are 3.7, 3.0, and 2.4 for the developing countries only and 2.0, 2.0, and 2.1 for the developed countries only. By 2025 the age structure of the developing countries is expected to be similar to the current age structure of the developed countries. In 2025, the 10 countries with the largest populations and their expected populations, in millions, will be China (1,475), India (1,229), USSR (368), Nigeria (338), US (312), Indonesia (273), Brazil (246), Bangladesh (219), Pakistan (210), and Mexico (154). The populations of some countries which are relatively small at the present time will be quite large in 2025. For example, the population, in millions, will be 111 for Ethiopia and 105 for Vietnam. The projections are summarized in 4 tables.
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  2. 2
    021441
    Peer Reviewed

    A perspective on long-term population growth.

    Demeny PG

    Population and Development Review. 1984 Mar; 10(1):103-26.

    This paper presents some of the results of projections prepared by the World Bank in 1983 for all the world's countries. The projections (presented against a background of recent demographic trends as estimated by the United Nations) trace the approach of each individual country to a stationary state. Implications of the underlying fertility and mortality assumptions are shown mainly in terms of time trends of total population to the year 2100, annual rates of growth, and absolute annual increments. These indices are shown for the largest individual countries, for world regions, and for country groupings according to economic criteria. The detailed predictive performance of such projections is likely to be poor but the projections indicate orders of magnitude characterizing certain aggregate demographic phenomena whose occurrence is highly probable and set clearly interpretable reference points useful in discussing contemporary issues of policy. (author's)
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