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  1. 1
    074857

    International Symposium: For the Survival of Mankind: Population, Environment and Development.

    Mainichi Shimbun; Japan. National Institute for Research Advancement; United Nations Population Fund [UNFPA]

    Ann Arbor, Michigan, University of Michigan, Dept. of Population Planning and International Health, [1989]. xxxiii, 134 p.

    In August 1989, scientists and leaders of international and national groups met at the international symposium for the Survival of Mankind in Tokyo, Japan, to discuss ideas about the interrelationship between population, environment, and development and obstacles to attaining sustainable development. The President of the Worldwatch Institute opened the symposium with a talk about energy, food, and population. Of fossil fuels, nuclear power, and solar energy, only the clean and efficient solar energy can provide sustainable development. Humanity has extended arable lands and irrigation causing soil erosion, reduced water tables, produced water shortages, and increased salivation. Thus agricultural advances since the 1950s cannot continue to raise crop yields. He also emphasized the need to halt population growth. He suggested Japan provide more international assistance for sustainable development. This talk stimulated a lively debate. The 2nd session addressed the question whether the planet can support 5. 2 billion people (1989 population). The Executive Director of UNFPA informed the audience that research shows that various factors are needed for a successful population program: political will, a national plan, a prudent assessment of the sociocultural context, support from government agencies, community participation, and improvement of women's status. Other topics discussed during this session were urbanization, deforestation, and international environmental regulation. The 3rd session covered various ways leading to North-South cooperation. A Chinese participant suggested the establishment of an international environmental protection fund which would assist developing countries with their transition to sustainable development and to develop clean energy technologies and environmental restoration. Another participant proposed formation of a North-South Center in Japan. The 4th session centered around means to balance population needs, environmental protection, and socioeconomic development.
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  2. 2
    081535

    Climate change: the IPCC response strategies.

    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC]

    Washington, D.C., Island Press, 1991. lxii, 272 p.

    In 1988, the World Meteorological Organization and the UN Environment Program established the Intergovernmental Panel on climate Change (IPCC) to consider scientific data on various factors of the climate change issue, e.g., emissions of major greenhouse gases, and to draw up realistic response strategies to manage this issue. Its members have agreed that emissions from human activities are indeed increasing sizably the levels of carbon dioxide, methane, chlorofluorocarbon (CFC), and nitrous oxide in the atmosphere. The major conclusions are that effective responses need a global effort and both developed and developing countries must take responsibility to implement these responses. Industrialized countries must modify their economies to limit emissions because most emissions into the atmosphere come from these countries. They should cooperate with and also provide financial and technical assistance to developing countries to raise their living standards while preventing and managing environmental problems. Concurrently, developing countries must adopt measures to also limit emissions as their economies expand. Environmental protection must be the base for continuing economic development. There must be an education campaign to inform the public about the issue and the needed changes. Strategies and measures to confront rapid population growth must be included in a flexible and progressive approach to sustainable development. Specific short-term actions include improved energy efficiency, cleaner energy sources and technologies, phasing out CFCs, improved forest management and expansion of forests, improved livestock waste management, modified use and formulation of fertilizers, and changes in agricultural land use. Longer term efforts are accelerated and coordinated research programs, development of new technologies, behavioral and structural changes (e.g., transportation), and expansion of global ocean observing and monitoring systems.
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  3. 3
    074890

    The global possible: resources, development, and the new century.

    Global Possible Conference (1984: Wye Plantation)

    In: The global possible: resources, development, and the new century, edited by Robert Repetto. New Haven, Connecticut, Yale University Press, 1985. 491-519. (World Resources Institute Book)

    Participants at the Global Possible Conference in 1984 concluded that, despite the dismal predictions about the earth, we can still fashion a more secure, prosperous, and sustainable world environmentally and economically. The tools to bring about such a world already exist. The international community and nations must implement new policies, however. Government, science, business, and concerned groups must reach new levels of cooperation. Developed and developing countries must form new partnerships to implement sustained improvements in living standards of the world's poor. Peaceful cooperation is needed to eliminate the threat of nuclear war--the greatest threat to life and the environment. Conference working groups prepared an agenda for action which, even though it is organized along sectoral disciplines, illustrates the complex linkages that unite issues in 1 area with those in several others. For example, problems existing in forests tie in with biological diversity, energy and fuelwood, and management of agricultural lands and watersheds. The agenda emphasizes policies and initiatives that synergistically influence serious problems in several sectors. It also tries to not present solutions that generate as many problems as it tries to solve. The 1st section of the agenda covers population, poverty, and development issues. it provides recommendations for developing and developed countries. It discusses urbanization and issues facing cities. The 3rd section embodies freshwater issues and has 1 list of recommendations for all sectors. The agenda addresses biological diversity, tropical forests, agricultural land, living marine resources, energy, and nonfuel minerals in their own separate sections. It discusses international assistance and the environment in 1 section. Another section highlights the need to assess conditions, trends, and capabilities. The last section comprises business, science, an citizens.
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  4. 4
    082444

    Sustainable development through global interdependence.

    Attiga AA

    In: Change: threat or opportunity for human progress? Volume V. Ecological change: environment, development and poverty linkages, edited by Uner Kirdar. New York, New York, United Nations, 1992. 88-107.

    A new global geopolitical structure is taking shape, a multipolar system strengthened by various regional economic powers (e.g., the European Economic Community). These powers will inevitably vie for global status. This system will be based on a succession of bridges and linkages of global interdependence on human rights and freedom, energy and environmental management, international trade and finance, technological and science development, and modern communications. These bridges and linkages should effect a more balanced global structure. The best prospect for a system of cooperation and interdependence among nations is the UN. Proper engineering of these bridges and linkages within a global and regional framework can bring about sustainable development. If competition between various economic power blocs is the guiding principle of these bridges and linkages, the world will experience a new era of regional and global conflict. For example, developed countries and their transnational companies once controlled the oil industry. They exploited huge oil reserves in developing countries and did not provide them appropriate compensation for depletion of their most important natural resource. Host countries reacted to this unfair treatment and took over and nationalized the companies, leading to a sizable increase in oil prices in the 1970s. This then caused global economic instability and general mistrust between exporting and importing countries. Demand for oil fell, and the producing countries could not decide how to distribute the oil sales reduction among themselves, so the buyers took control and still have control of the oil market. The demand for oil is rising and preserves are shrinking which will result in a rapid increase in oil prices. Thus, all nations must invest in development of new sources of energy. Oil should be just a short bridge towards sustainable development. Developed countries should place peaceful resolution of regional conflicts and bilateral disputes at the top of their agenda. Internationalism should replace nationalism and multilateralism should replace bilateralism.
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  5. 5
    082318

    Janet Brown: on global environmental issues, the people are leading and the leaders are following.

    Lerner SD

    In: Earth summit. Conversations with architects of an ecologically sustainable future, by Steve Lerner. Bolinas, California, Commonweal, 1991. 229-36.

    A senior associate with the World Resources Institute believes that it is more worthwhile to strengthen the UN Environment Program than to create a new international environmental organization. Another possibility would be to convert the UN Trusteeship Council's purpose from administering UN territories to dealing with environmental issues. The Council has an equal number of developing countries and developed countries and no country has veto power. She also favors ad hoc groups dealing with very specific issues, e.g., International Panel on Climate Change. We need an international debt management authority which purchases outstanding debt at real market prices to finance policies and programs that alleviate poverty and protect the environmental issues should lie with 1 organization. She dismisses suggestions that the Group of Seven industrialized nations serve as a group to propose international initiatives because developing countries would not accept the G-7 process plus the G-7 countries do not even agree on environmental issues. Citizens push US politicians to address environmental issues rather than the politicians leading on environmental issues. Some members of the US Congress have taken the initiative, however, including Senators Gore and Mikulski from Tennessee and Maryland, respectively. The President must have a vision for a transition to sustainable development, which he does not. In the 1973-74 oil crisis, industry took it upon itself to become more energy efficient and still had real growth in the gross national product, illustrating that the costs required to become more sustainable are not as great as many people claim. Sustainable agriculture would reduce the demand for fossil fuels, on which fertilizers and pesticides are based. It would require making institutional changes. USAID should change dramatically the system it uses to distribute foreign aid money and to dedicate considerably more money to the environment and development.
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  6. 6
    082305

    Jessica Tuchman Mathews: the case for reinventing technology to promote sustainable development.

    Lerner SD

    In: Earth summit. Conversations with architects of an ecologically sustainable future, by Steve Lerner. Bolinas, California, Commonweal, 1991. 25-38.

    The public debate on the environment leading to the 1992 Earth Summit in Brazil has been restricted to global climate change instead of global change. The Summit should be part of an ongoing process and not a framework convention followed by protocols. Separate conventions for biodiversity and deforestation are likely to emerge, even though one convention integrating both biodiversity and deforestation is needed. Many environmental and development issues overlap, suggesting a need for an international group to coordinate these issues. Negotiating separate conventions for the various issues is costly for developing countries. Rapid population growth contributes to environmental degradation, but no coordinated effort exists to reduce it. The US continues to not support the UN Population Fund which, along with threats of US boycotts and disapproval, curbs initiatives to reduce population. At present population and economic growth rates, an environmental disaster will likely happen in the early 2000s. Developing countries, which also contribute greatly to global warming, will not take actions if industrialized nations do not initiate reductions of greenhouse gases. Developed countries emit the most greenhouse gases, have been responsible for most past emissions, and have the means to initiate reductions. Of industrialized nations, the US stands alone in setting targets to reduce carbon dioxide. Unlike some European nations, the US does not have an energy policy. The US abandoned public transportation for the automobile while Europe has a strong public transportation system. The World Bank has improved greatly in addressing global environmental issues, but only 1% of its energy lending is for energy efficiency. The Bank knows that projects implemented by nongovernmental organizations are more successful than those implemented by governments, yet it continues to lend money to governments. Humans need to redesign existing linear systems to be like nature's circular systems in which by-products are starting products for another reaction.
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  7. 7
    074906

    World resources 1992-93.

    World Resources Institute; United Nations Environment Programme [UNEP]; United Nations Development Programme [UNDP]

    New York, New York, Oxford University Press, 1992. xiv, 385 p.

    The World Resources Institute, the UN Environment Programme, and the UN Development Programme collaborate to produce the World Resources series to provide organizations and individuals with accessible and accurate information on the trends and conditions of natural resources and protection of the environment. This information is needed to reach sustainable development, eliminate poverty, improve the standard of living, and preserve biological life-sustaining systems. This 5th volume stresses sustainable development as does the 1992 UN Conference on Environment and Development. Part I, entitled Sustainable Development, includes an overview chapter and 3 case studies of possible means to achieve sustainable development in industrialized countries, low income countries, and rapidly industrializing countries. Part II focuses on one region of the world, Central Europe, to discuss how it was able to degrade the environment, the magnitude of the damage, and what possible steps to take to ameliorate the situation. Part III addresses basic conditions and trends, key issues, major problems and efforts to resolve them, and recent developments in population and human development, food and agriculture, forests and rangelands, wildlife and habitat, energy, freshwater, oceans and coasts, atmosphere and climate, and policies and institutions (governmental and nongovernmental organizations). Part IV lists core and supporting data from the World Resources Data Base. This volume contains an index and a World Resources Data Base index.
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  8. 8
    074898

    The global partnership for environment and development. A guide to Agenda 21.

    United Nations Conference on Environment and Development [UNCED] (1992: Rio de Janeiro)

    Geneva, Switzerland, UNCED, Secretariat, 1992 Apr. [4], 116 p. (E.92.I.15)

    The UN Conference on Environmental and Development Preparatory Committee (UNCED) agreed on an action plan of global partnership for sustainable development and environmental protection entitled Agenda 21 to be adopted at the June 1992 UNCED in Rio de Janeiro. The priority actions are a call for action to achieve a prospering, just, and habitable world. These actions also promote a fertile, shared, and clean planet via extensive and responsible public participation at local, national, and global levels. Since most environmental problems originate with the failures and inadequacies of the current development process, the 1st action centers around revitalizing growth with sustainability including international policies to accelerate sustainable development in developing countries and integration of environment and development in decision making. The 2nd action is achieving sustainable living by attacking poverty, changing consumption patterns, and recognizing and acting on the links between population dynamics and sustainability, and providing basic health needs to preserve human health. The 3rd action addresses human settlements including urban water supplies, solid wastes management, and urban pollution and health. The 4th and 7th action plans incorporate the most subtopics. The 4th action plan calls for efficient resource use ranging from land resource planning and management to sustainable agriculture and rural development. The 7th plan is a call for individuals and groups to participate and be responsible for sustainable development. The major identified groups are women, children and youth, indigenous people, nongovernmental organizations, farmers, local authorities, trade unions, business and industry, and the scientific and technological community. The 5th plan addresses global and regional resources including protection of the atmosphere, the oceans and seas, and sustainable use of living marine resources. The 6th plan deals with management of toxic and hazardous chemicals and radioactive wastes.
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  9. 9
    079150

    Population, resources and the environment. Report of the Secretary-General.

    United Nations. Secretary-General

    In: The population debate: dimensions and perspectives. Papers of the World Population Conference, Bucharest, 1974. Volume I. New York, New York, United Nations, 1975. 77-123. (Population Studies, No. 57; ST/ESA/SER.A/57)

    The Secretary-General's commentary on the state of population growth, resources, and the environment examines the most important relationship. Conflicts in resource use and distribution and essential resources are identified: potential water and land resources for agriculture, availability of potential arable land, new technology, carrying capacity, capital needs, the imbalance between population and arable land, energy needs, agricultural modernization, nonfuel mineral resources, and energy resources. The relationship between rapid population growth and the environment may be one where man is indeed capable of reducing the environmental consequences to tolerable level through reallocation of resources. There a 3 sets of environmental problems: 1) those related to poverty and inadequate social and economic development; 2) those arising from the development process itself; and 3) those which could have a major impact on climate or environmental conditions and are not well understood. The environmental problems of developed countries pertain to high levels of energy use and the problems of affluence. In poor countries, environmental problems are caused by rapid population growth and urbanization, and poverty. Environmental destruction from mining and transportation are discussed along with the need for conversion to alternative forms of energy and reduction of polluting energy use. Developing countries' problems focus on water supply and waste disposal, the benefits of environmental improvement, and the global changes possible in climate, carbon dioxide emissions, and particulate matter in the atmosphere. "Hot spots" from fossil fuel combustion and nuclear fission are occurring; accurate data, improved analytical models, and international cooperation in monitoring and analysis is essential. Settlement patterns and the costs plus the internal organization of large urban areas are some of the problems examined. Rural development, rural-urban migration, and population redistribution are other issues of concern. Urban development and urban growth strategies reflect the potential need to curb urban migration and a new settlement system. Technology's impact on population, research gaps, and policy implications are revealed. Definitions of societal objectives are necessary before deciding what technology is needed.
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  10. 10
    075066

    Conclusion: findings and policy implications.

    Gillis M; Repetto R

    In: Public policies and the misuse of forest resources, edited by Robert Repetto, Malcolm Gillis. Cambridge, England, Cambridge University Press, 1988. 385-410. (World Resources Institute Book)

    The World Resources Institute has compiled 12 case studies on public policies from developed and developing countries and the misuse of forest resources into 1 book. All of the studies confirm that 3 key products of population growth and rural poverty in developing countries are responsible for deforestation. These products include shifting cultivation, agricultural conversion, and fuelwood gathering. Large development projects also foster forest destruction. Government policies contribute to and exacerbate these pressures which result in inefficient use of natural forest resources. Such policies directly and indirectly undermine conservation, regional development schemes, and other socioeconomic goals. Forestry policies include timber harvest concessions, levels and structures of royalties and fees, utilization of nonwood forests products, and reforestation. Tax incentives, credit subsidies, and resettlement programs comprise examples of nonforestry policies. Trade barriers established by industrialized countries have somewhat encouraged unsuitable investments and patterns of exploitation in forest industries in developing countries. Negotiations between exporting and importing countries within the confines of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and the International Tropical Timber Agreement (ITTA) should strive to reduce tariff escalation and nontariff barriers to processed wood imports from tropical countries and to justify incentives to forest industries in developing countries. These 12 case studies have come to the same conclusion as the UN Food and Agriculture Organization did in 1987: action to conserve forests is needed without delay.
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  11. 11
    072745
    Peer Reviewed

    More resources better health? A cross-national perspective.

    Kim K; Moody PM

    Social Science and Medicine. 1992 Apr; 34(8):837-42.

    Researchers analyzed data from 117 countries taken from 2 1988 World Bank publications to determine the relative importance of health care resources in predicting infant mortality within developed, developing and underdeveloped countries. Overall the variance of infant mortality, accounted by only socioeconomic resources, was 32.8% in underdeveloped (p<.01), 34.3% in developing countries (p<.05), and 60.6% in developed countries (p<.1). Further almost all these variables had constant directions of relationship with infant mortality across the 3 subgroups. For example, GNP and education were always negatively associated with infant mortality and urbanization and water were always positively associated with infant mortality. In fact, water had the greatest effect in developing countries and the smallest in underdeveloped countries. Further education was the only statistically significant socioeconomic variable in underdeveloped and developing countries (p<.05). Energy was inversely related with infant mortality in underdeveloped and developing countries, but positively related with it in industrialized countries. Further calorie had an inverse relationship with infant mortality in underdeveloped countries, but a positive relationship in developing and developed countries. In terms of health resources, the variance of infant mortality was not significant and was only an additional 8.6% of that above the variance explained by socioeconomic resources in underdeveloped countries, 5.6% in developing countries, and 3.3% in industrialized countries. Yet the association between inhabitants/ physician was consistent across all subgroups. Further the physician's role in reducing infant mortality was greatest in developing countries. The other 2 health care variables were inhabitants/nurse and inhabitants/hospital bed. In addition, as life expectancy increased, the effects of health care resources on infant mortality fell.
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  12. 12
    059418

    Development and the environment: a global balance.

    Conable BB

    [Unpublished] 1989. Presented at the Conference on Global Environment and Human Response toward Sustainable Development, Tokyo, Japan, September 11, 1989. 11 p.

    With the installation of Barner B. Conable as President of the World Bank, the Bank began to incorporate the environmental effects of development projects into its loan decisions. It has also augmented loans for environmental, population, and forestry projects. In 1988, >100 projects with important environmental elements (35% of all Bank and IDA projects) were approved, the majority of which were in agriculture. The Bank has expected the percentage of such projects to increase annually. Further, to assist the countries and the Bank in considering environmental concerns in the beginning stage of designing development projects, the Bank has developed Environmental Assessment Guidelines. The Bank has taken on a formidable task, however, since its primary purpose is to reduce poverty which often conflicts with protecting the environment. Its leadership believes that the 2 goals are not necessarily mutually exclusive, and, if they are to be achieved, the problems must be clearly defined and all the countries of the world must work towards solutions to benefit the global community. Additionally, the Bank has begun to encourage developing countries to switch to cleaner fuels, processes, and systems to curtail global warming. It also monitors research on carbon dioxide, methane, and chlorofluorocarbon emissions, all of which contribute to the greenhouse effect, and on climatic change. The Bank has recognized, however, that improvement in the environment cannot occur fast enough, at the rate the earth's population is increasing. Therefore it continues to fund family planning and health projects.
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  13. 13
    047690

    The earth's vital signs.

    Brown LR; Flavin C

    In: State of the world 1988. A Worldwatch Institute report on progress toward a sustainable society. New York, New York, W.W. Norton, 1988. 3-21.

    Most of the recognized threats to the world environment, such as the destruction of forests by acid rain, the ozone hole, population growth, energy use, and the greenhouse effect, have moved from hypothetical projections to present-day realities which can be solved only by international efforts. The Montreal accords of 1987 to limit the production of chlorofluorocarbons and the UN call for a cease-fire in the Iran-Iraq war were steps in this direction. But a look at the "vital signs" of the earth as expressed by environmental crises will show how much more is needed. Deforestation for agriculture and logging causes as estimated loss of 11 million hectares of forest each year. Deforestation means erosion. The topsoil layer, once 6-10 inches deep over the globe is being blown or washed away at the rate of 26 billion tons a year. The soil is not only being depleted, it is being contaminated by agricultural pesticides and toxic wastes. In Poland, for example, 1/4 of the soil is unfit for food production, and only 1% of the water is safe for drinking due to chemical contamination. The depletion of the ozone layer is no longer observed only in Antarctica; it has dropped up to 9% in North Dakota, Maine, and Switzerland. The loss of forests and the acidification of lakes and soil are causing whole species to become extinct. World population continues to grow, as each year 80 million more people are born than die. But the real problem is not population growth per se; it is the relationship between population size and the sustainable yield of local forests, grasslands, and croplands. In 1982 India's forests could sustain an annual harvest of 30 million tons of wood; the estimated demand was 133 million tons. In 9 Southern African countries the number of cattle exceed the carrying capacity of the grasslands by 50% to 100%. In India enough fodder is raised to supply only 50% to 80% of the needs of cattle. The results of deforestation, overgrazing and overplowing is desertification, which compounded by drought, brings famine. The relationship between population growth and land degradation is reflected in per capita food production. In China it has risen by 1/3 since 1970, but in Africa it has fallen by 1/5; and India, despite the Green Revolution, will have to import grain if there is another failure of the monsoons. Another indicator of environmental ill-health is energy consumption, which is again on the rise. Industrial use of oil and coal, especially in the US, the USSR, and China, has resulted in air pollution and acid rain, which by September 1987 had damaged 30.7 million hectares of forests in Europe. But by far the most serious result of the burning of fossil fuels and wood is the 7 billion tons of carbon discharged annually into the atmosphere, causing the greenhouse effect, which will raise the global temperature between 1.5 and 4.5 degrees Celsius by year 2050. Patterns of World settlement and agriculture will change drastically; irrigation and drainage systems will have to be adjusted; and a rise in sea levels between 1.4 and 2.2 meters by year 2100 could inundate coastal cities. In view of these deteriorating "vital signs" of the planet, nations must work together to turn one earth into one world. The Montreal accord on ozone protection and the 1987 US-Soviet arms limitation were a good beginning. The greenhouse effect and the changing climate are logical candidates for the next round of world environmental deliberations.
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  14. 14
    038079

    Electricity for a developing world: new directions.

    Flavin C

    Washington, D.C., Worldwatch Institute, 1986. 66 p. (Worldwatch Paper 70)

    This monograph focuses on developing electric power, the efficient use of electricity, new approaches in rural electrification, and decentralizing generators and institutions. Electric power systems, for a long time considered showpieces of development, now are central to some of the most serious problems 3rd world countries face. Many 3rd world utilities are so deeply in debt that international bailouts may be required to stave off bankruptcy. Financial probles, together with various technical difficulties, have resulted in a serious decline in the reliability of many 3rd world power systems, which may impede industrial growth. At this time the common presumption that developing countries will soon attain the reliable, economical electricity service taken for granted in industrial nations is in doubt. World Bank support of electricity systems grew from $85 million annually in the mid-1950s to $271 million in the mid-1960s, $1400 million in the early 1970s, and $1800 million in the early 1980s. The Bank's support of electrtic power projects has leveled off in recent years and shrunk in proportional terms as lending expanded in other areas. The general trend is toward greater centralization and governmental control of electric power systems. Commercial banks and government supported lending institutions prefer to deal with a strong central authority that has government financial backing yet is outside the day-to-day political process. The World Bank files reveal a consistent push for greater centralization and consolidation of authority whenever questions of the structure of a power system arise. Over the years, the World Bank has gradually becomes stricter in the institutional preconditions it sets for power loans. By the early 1980s, 3rd world countries were using 6 times as much electric power as they had 20 years earlier but compared with industrial nations electricity plays a relatively small role in 3rd world economies. In most developing nations electricity consumption is so low and the potential future uses so great that electricity use continues to expand even when the economy does not. Meeting projected growth in the demand for electricity services will be virtually impossible without substantial efficiency improvements. The cornerstone of any new program is improve efficiency is a pricing system that reflects the true cost of providing power. Rather than a blanket cure for the problems of village life, rural electrification is simply a tool that is appropriate in some cases. Electric cooperatives offer an approach to rural electrification that has worked well in some countries.
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  15. 15
    267814

    Population, resources, environment and development.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs

    New York, New York, United Nations, 1984. ix, 534 p. (International Conference on Population, 1984; Statements ST/ESA/SER.A/90)

    Contained in this volume are the report (Part I) and the selected papers (Part II) of the Expert Group on Population, Resources, Environment and Development which review past trends and their likely future course in each of the 4 areas, taking into account not only evolving concepts but also the need to consider population, resources, environment and development as a unified structure. Trends noted in the population factor include world population growth and the differences between rates in the developed and developing countries; the decline in the proportion of the population who are very young and the concomitant increase in the average age of the population. Discussed within the resource factor are the labor force, the problem of increasing capital shortage, expenditures on armaments, trends in the supply and productivity of arable land, erosion and degradation of topsoil and energy sources. Many of the problems identified overlap with the environment factor, which centers on the problem of pollution. The group on the development factor was influenced by a pervasiv sense of "crisis" in current economic trends. Concern was also expressed regarding the qualitative aspects of current development trends, defined as the perverse effects of having adopted inappropriate styles of development. Part II begins with a general overview of recent levels and trends in the 4 areas along with the concepts of carrying capacity and optimum population. Other papers discuss the impact of trends in resources, environment and development on demographic prospects; long-term effects of global population growth on the international system; economic considerations in the choice of alternative paths to a stationary population and the need for integration of demographic factors in development planning. The various papers on the resources and environment factor focus on resources as a barrier to population growth; the effects of population growth on renewable resources; food production and population growth in Africa; the frailty of the balance between the 4 areas and the need for a holistic approach on a scale useful for regional planning. Also addressed are: social development; population and international economic relations; development, lifestyles, population and environment in Latin America; issues of population growth, inequality and poverty; health, population and development trends; education requirements and trends in female literacy; the challenge posed by the aging of populations; and population and development in the ECE region.
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  16. 16
    008024

    World development report 1980.

    World Bank

    Washington, D.C., World Bank, 1980 Aug. 166 p.

    This report examines some of the difficulties and prospects faced by developing countries in continuing their social and economic development and tackling poverty for the next 5-10 years. The 1st part of the report is about the economic policy choices facing both developing and richer countries and about the implications of these choices for growth. The 2nd part of the report reviews other ways to reduce poverty such as focusing on human development (education and training, health and nutrition, and fertility reduction). Throughout the report economic projections for developing countries have been carried out, drawing on the World Bank's analysis of what determines country and regional growth. Oil-exporting countries will face greater economic growth; their average GNP per person could grow 3-3.5% in the 1980s. Oil-importing countries will develop slower or fall to 1.8%/year. Poverty in oil-importing developing countries could grow at about 2.4% GNP/person and by 1990 there would be 80 million fewer people in absolute poverty. Factors which will contribute to the economic problems of developing countries are trade (import/export), energy, and capital flow. The progress of developing countries depends on internal policies and initiatives concerning investment and production efficiency, human development and population. Not only can human development increase growth but it can help to reduce absolute poverty.
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  17. 17
    015554

    Global models, world futures, and public policy: a critique.

    United States. Congress. Office of Technology Assessment

    Washington, D.C., Office of Technology Assessment, 1982 Apr. 120 p. (OTA Report OTA-R-165)

    Global models, as tools of policy formulation, have been used to evaluate or promote alternative actions and programs that might bring about different or more favorable world futures. This report surveys the assumptions, findings, and recommendations of 5 major global modeling studies. It also considers the use of global models within the US government, such as the World Integrated Model (WIM) that is being used by the US Joint Chiefs of Staff. The report presents strategies that have been suggested for improving the quality and relevance of the Government's modeling capability. Of particular interest in this connection is the newly created White House "national indicators system." Appendixes provided detailed comparative analyses of the models' projections of population, agriculture, and energy trends. Global modeling studies have varied widely in their purposes, techniques, findings, and prescriptions. Specific quantitative results have differed, but the studies have generally identified the same problems and seem to have arrived at roughly similar qualitative conclusions about the present state of the world and its plausible futures. As a tool of analysis, global modeling is neutral, yet it can be designed or used inappropriately. Global modeling is used by a variety of organizations. Global models offer several methodological advantages over traditional techniques of long range analysis and policy development: longer time horizon; comprehensiveness; rigor and accessibility; logic; and flexiblity. Global models are subject to several limitations that can constrain their accuracy, reliability, and usefulness: methodological, theoretical; and data constraints. Frequently cited institutional barriers include: poor communication between modelers and potential model users; narrow specialization of interests and responsibilities; lack of understanding, confidence, or support for modeling among top level policymakers; and lack of interest in longterm global issues on the part of the US Federal agencies, US Congress, and the general public. Proposed initiatives for improving the government's modeling capabilities usually reflect 4 fundamental priorites: correct existing deficiencies; coordinate existing capabilities and activities; support technical improvements in the government's capability and the state of the art; and link foresight with policymaking. The 5 global modeling studies addressed in this report demonstrate at least 3 fundamentally different "predictive styles"--World 3 model and Global 2000 examine what might happen if current trends continued, while the Latin American and UN world models examine the goals that might be realized through broad changes in those trends, and the WIM examines the policies and action that might bring those changes about. The models also vary significantly in their more specific purposes, assumptions, and methodologies, but they do display a limited consensus about the nature of the world system and the identity of the problems facing it, as well as some of the steps that must be taken to address them. Discussion examines the areas of general agreement or disagreement that emerge from these 5 studies.
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