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  1. 1
    064186

    The state of world population 1990: choices for the new century.

    Sadik N

    New York, New York, United Nations Population Fund [UNFPA], 1990. 40 p.

    The decade of the 1990's, the Fourth Development Decade, will be "critical" because of the world's demographic situation will determine the future for the 21st century in terms of population growth and the effect of growing populations in terms of damage to the environment. Despite the fact that government political support for population programs and activities rose from 97 countries in 1976 to 125 in 1988 (Africa rose from 16 in 1978 to 30 in 1988), the contraceptive prevalence rates in developing countries (excluding China) during the 1980's fell below 40%. Many countries encountered a "mix" of difficulties maintaining their family planning programs (FP) because of declining political support and the debt burden forcing governments to reduce investments in health and social welfare programs, including FP. By the year 2025 the UN expects 8,467 million people; 147 million (<5%) will be in the industrialized countries and 95% in the developing countries of Africa, Latin America and Asia. This report discusses human resource development during the Fourth Development Decade. FP and population programs must become integral components of countries' development process to achieve sustainable economic growth. 19 recommendations are offered on how to achieve sustained fertility declines. This UNFPA report includes the following sections: Introduction; Part 1 "The Challenges Ahead"; Part 2 "Keeping the Options Open"; Part 3 "Human Resource Development-A New Priority"; Conclusion and Recommendations.
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  2. 2
    039165

    Acute respiratory infections are the leading cause of death in children in developing countries.

    Denny FW; Loda FA

    AMERICAN JOURNAL OF TROPICAL MEDICINE AND HYGIENE. 1986 Jan; 35(1):1-2.

    A paper by Hazlett et al. is of particular importance because it addresses the question of the role of acute respiratory infections (ARI) as a cause of morbidity and especially mortality in 3rd world children. Diarrheal disease and malnutrition are generally thought to be the major killers of these children, and until recently little attention was paid to ARI. Recent data suggest that ARI are more important than realized previously and almost certainly are the leading cause of death in children in developing countries. It is estimated that each year more than 15 million children less than 5 years old die, obviously most in socially and economically deprived countries. Since death usually is due to a combination of social, economic, and medical factors, it is impossible to obtain precise data on the causes of death. It has been estimated that 5 million of the deaths are due to diarrhea, over 3 million due to pneumonia, 2 million to measles, 1.5 million to pertussis, 1 million to tetanus, and the other 2.5 million or less to other causes. Since pertussis is an acute respiratory infection and measles deaths frequently are due to infections of the respiratory tract, it is becoming clear that ARI are associated with more deaths than any other single cause. The significance of this is emphasized when the mortality rates from ARI in developed and underdeveloped nations are compared. Depending on the countries compared, age group, and other factors, increases of 5-10-fold have been reported. These factors raise the question of why respiratory infections are so lethal for 3rd world children. The severity of pneumonia, which is the cause of most ARI deaths, seems to be the big difference. Data are accumulating which show that bacterial infections are associated with the majority of severe infections and "Streptococcus pneumoniae" and "Haemophilus influenzae," infrequent causes of pneumonia in developed world children, are the microorganisms incriminated in a large proportion of cases. The increase in severity of ARI in 3rd world children has been associated, at least in port, with malnutrition, diarrheal diseases, an increased parasite load, and more recently with air pollution. Crowding and other factors associated with poverty doubtless also play a role. How these various factors contribute to increased severity and lethality is not well understood. The increasing recognition of the important role played by ARI as causes of mortality in 3rd world children is encouraging. The UN International Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF) has joined the World Health Organization in the battle against ARI in developing countries, and the 2 organizations recently issued a joint statement on the subject in which they pledged to collaborate to integrate an ARI component into the primary health care program.
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  3. 3
    045404

    World population policies, volume 1: Afghanistan to France.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs

    New York, New York, United Nations, 1987. vi, 247 p. (Population Studies, No. 102; ST/ESA/SER.A/102)

    WORLD POPULATION POLICIES presents, in 3 volumes, current information on the population policies of the 170 members states of the UN and non-member states. This set of reports in based on the continuous monitoring of population policies by the Population Division of the Department of International Economic and Social Affairs of the UN Secretariat. It replaces POPULATION POLICY BRIEFS: CURRENT SITUATION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, POPULATION POLICY BRIEFS: CURRENT SITUATION IN DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, and POPULATION POLICY COMPENDIUM. Except where noted, the demographic estimates and projections cited in this report are based on the 10th round of global demographic assessments undertaken by the Population Division. Country reports are grouped alphabetically; Volume I contains Afghanistan to France. Each country's entry includes demographic indicators detailing population size, a structure, and growth; mortality and morbidity; fertility, nuptiality, and family; international migration; and spatial distribution and urbanization. Current perceptions of these demographic indicators are included, along with the country's general policy framework, institutional framework, and policies and measures. A brief glossary of terms and list of countries replying to the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th inquiries are appended.
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  4. 4
    037147

    [Recommendations of the Population World Plan of Action and of the United Nations Expert Group on Population Distribution, Migration and Development] Recomendaciones del Plan de Accion Mundial sobre Poblacion y del Grupo de Expertos de la Organizacion de las Naciones Unidas sobre Distribucion de la Poblacion, Migracion y Desarrollo.

    De Oliveira O

    In: Reunion Nacional sobre Distribucion de la Poblacion, Migracion y Desarrollo, Guadalajara, Jalisco, 11 de mayo de 1984, [compiled by] Mexico. Consejo Nacional de Poblacion [CONAPO]. Mexico City, Mexico, CONAPO, 1984. 21-31.

    Highlights are presented of the expert meeting on population distribution, migration, and development held in Hammamet, Tunisia, in March 1983 to prepare for the 1984 World Population Conference. Rafael Salas, Secretary General of the World Population Conference, indicated in the inaugural address of the meeting that changes in the past 10 years including the increasing importance of short-term movements, illegal migrations, and refugees would require international agreements for their resolution. In the area of internal migrations, Salas suggested that in addition to migration to metropolitan areas which continues to predominate, short-term movements of various kinds need to be considered in policy. Improvement in the quality of life of the urban poor is an urgent need. Leon Tabah, Adjunct Secretary General of the World Population Conference, pointed out that population distribution and migration had received insufficient attention in the 1975 World Population Conference, and that the World Population Plan of Action should be modified accordingly. Among the most important findings of the meeting were: 1) The Plan of Action overstressed the negative effects of urbanization and rural migration. Available evidence suggests that migration and urbanization are effects rather than causes of a larger process of unequal regional and sectorial development 2) The historical context of each country should be considered in research and planning regarding population movements. 3) Analyses of the determinants and consequences of migration were reexamined in light of their relationship to the processes of employment, capital accumulation, land tenure, technological change, ethnic and educational aspects, and family dynamics. 4) The need to consider interrelationships between urban rural areas in formulation of policy affecting population distribution was emphasized. 5) National development strategies and macroeconomic and sectoral policies usually have stronger spatial effects than measures specifically designed to influence population distribution, and should be examined to ensure compatability of goals. 6) Population distribution policies should not be viewed as ends in themselves but as measures to achieve larger goals such as reducing socioeconomic inequalities. 7) Multiple levels of analysis should be utilized for understanding the causes and consequences of population movements. 8) Programs of assistance should be organized for migrants and their families. 9) The human and labor rights of migrants and nonmigrants should be considered in policy formulation. 10) Policies designed to improve living and working conditions of women are urgently needed.
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  5. 5
    037252

    [National Conference on Population Distribution, Migration and Development, Guadalajara, Jalisco, May 11, 1984] Reunion Nacional sobre Distribucion de la Poblacion, Migracion y Desarrollo, Guadalajara, Jalisco, 11 de mayo de 1984.

    Mexico. Consejo Nacional de Poblacion [CONAPO]

    Mexico City, Mexico, CONAPO, 1984. 107 p.

    Proceedings of a national conference on population distribution, migration, and development held in Guadalajara, Mexico, in May 1984 in preparation for the 1984 World Population Conference are presented. 2 opening addresses explain the objectives and relevance of the national conference, while the 1st conference paper outlines the recommendations of the World Population Plan of Action and of an expert meeting sponsored by the UN in Tunisia in 1983 on the topic of population distribution, migration, and development. The main conference papers discuss recent evolution of population distribution in Mexico; migration, labor markets, and development, including migratory flows and the economic structure of Mexico, recommendations of the World Population Conference of 1974, the migration policy of the Mexican National Development Plan, and the National Employment Service as an instrument of migration policy; and reflections on the World Population Conference, the Mexican government, and the design of an international migration policy, including commentarty on the recommendations of the expert committee on international migration convened in preparation for the World Population Conference, and comments on problems in design of migration policy. The main recommendations of the conference were 1) the principles of the World Population Plan of Action, particularly in regard to respect for fundamental human rights, be reaffirmed; 2) policies designed to influence population movement directly be supplemented by and coordinated with other social and economic policies likely to produce the same effect; 3) coordination among all sectors be improved to ensure effective implementation of policy goals; 4) efforts be undertaken to provide more detailed information on internal migratory movements; 5) laws governing migration and population distribution in Mexico be carefully analyzed and possibly modified; and 6) a clear and realistic international migration policy be formulated which would take into account the need for more detailed data on international migration, a clear definition of policy objectives in international migration, respect of basic human rights, and coherence between external and internal international migration policies.
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  6. 6
    037161

    [National Conference on Fertility and Family, Oaxaca de Juarez, Oaxaca, April 13, 1984] Reunion Nacional sobre Fecundidad y Familia, Oaxaca de Juarez, Oax., a 13 de abril de 1984.

    Mexico. Consejo Nacional de Poblacion [CONAPO]

    Mexico City, Mexico, CONAPO, 1984. 228 p.

    Proceedings of a national conferences on the family and fertility held in April 1984 as part of Mexico's preparation for the August 1984 World Population Conference are presented. 2 opening addresses outline the background and objectives of the conference, while the 1st paper details recommendations of a 1983 meeting on fertility and the family held in New Delhi. The main body of the report presents 2 conference papers and commentary. The 1st paper, on fertility, contraception, and family planning, discusses fertility policies; levels and trends of fertility in Mexico from 1900 to 1970 and since 1970; socioeconomic and geographic fertility differentials; the relationship of mortality and fertility; contraception and the role of intermediate variables; the history and achievements of family planning activities of the private and public sectors in Mexico; and the relationship between contraception, fertility, and family planning. The 2nd paper, on the family as a sociodemographic unit and subject of population policies, discusses the World Population Plan of Action and current sociodemographic policies in Mexico; the family as a sociodemographic unit, including the implications of formal demography for the study of family phenomena, the dynamic sociodemographic composition of the family unit, and the family as a mediating unit for internal and external social actions; and steps in development of a possible population policy in which families would be considered an active part, including ideologic views of the family as a passive object of policy and possible mobilization strategies for families in population policies. The conference as a whole concluded by reaffirming the guiding principles of Mexico's population policy, including the right of couples to decide the number and spacing of their children, the fundamental objective of the population policy of elevating the socioeconomic and cultural level of the population, the view of population policy as an essential element of development policy, and the right of women to full participation. Greater efforts were believed to be necessary in such priority areas as integration of family planning programs with development planning and population policy, creation of methodologies for the analysis of families in their social contexts, development and application of contraceptive methodologies, promotion of male participation in family planning, coordination of federal and state family planning programs, and creation of sociodemographic information systems to ensure availability of more complete date on families in specific population sectors. The principles of the World Population Plan of Action were also reaffirmed.
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  7. 7
    033882

    The Joint WHO/UNICEF Nutrition Support Programme.

    Gurney M

    World Health. 1985 Nov; 13-15.

    In November 1980, Dr. Halfdan Mahler, Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO), and James Grant, head of the UN Children's Fund (UNICEF), drafted a joint program to improve the nutritional status of children and women through developmental measures based on primary health care. The government of Italy agreed to fund in full the estimated cost of US$85.3 million. When a tripartite agreement was signed in Rome in April 1982, the WHO/UNICEF Joint Nutrition Support Program (JNSP) came into being. It was agreed that resources would be concentrated in a number of countries to develop both demonstrable and replicable ways to improve nutrition. Thus far, projects are underway or are just starting in 17 countries in Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean. In most of these countries, infant and toddler mortality rates are considerably higher than the 3rd world averages. Program objectives include reducing infant and young child diseases and deaths and at the same time improving child health, growth, and development as well as maternal nutrition. These objectives require attention to be directed to the other causes of malnutrition as well as diet and food. JNSP includes nutrition and many other activities, such as control of diarrhea. The aim of all activities is better nutritional status leading to better health and growth and lower mortality. Feeding habits and family patterns differ from 1 country to another as do the JNSP country projects. Most JNSP projects adopt a multisectoral approach, incorporating varied activities that directly improve nutritional status. Activities involve agriculture and education as well as health but are only included if they can be expected to lead directly to improved nutrition. A multisectoral program calls for multisectoral management and involves coordination at all levels -- district, provincial, and national. This has been one of the most difficult things to get moving in many JNSP projects, yet it is one of the most important. Community participation is vital to all projects. Its success can only be judged as the projects unfold, but early experiences from several countries are encouraging.
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  8. 8
    031753

    [World population and development: an important change in perspective] Population mondiale et developpement: un important changement de perspective.

    Vallin J

    Problemes Economiques. 1984 Oct 24; (1895):26-32.

    The International Population Conference in Mexico City was much less controversial than the World Population Conference in Bucharest 10 years previously, in part because the message of Bucharest was widely accepted and in part because of changes that occurred in the demographic and economic situations in the succeeding decade. The UN medium population projection for 1985 has been proved quite accurate; it is not as alarming as the high projection but still represents a doubling of world population in less than 40 years. The control of fertility upon which the medium projection was predicated is well underway. The movement from high to low rates of fertility and mortality began in the 18th century in the industrial countries and lasted about 1 1/2 centuries during which the population surplus was dispersed throughout the world, especially in North and South America. The 2nd phase of movement from high to low rates currently underway in the developing countries has produced a far greater population increase. The proportion of the population in the developed areas of Europe, North America, the USSR, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand will decline from about 1/3 of the 2.5 billion world population of 1950 to 1/4 of the 3.7 billion of 1985, to 1/5 of the 4.8 billion of 2000, and probably 1/7 of the 10 billion when world population stabilizes at the end of the next century. The growth rates of developing countries are not homogeneous; the populations of China and India have roughly doubled in the past 35 years while that of Latin America has multiplied by 2 1/2. The population of Africa more than doubled in 35 years and will almost triple by 2025. The number of countries with over 50 million inhabitants, 9 in 1950, will increase from 19 in 1985 to 32 in 2025. The process of urbanization is almost complete in the industrialized countries, with about 75% of the population urban in 1985, but urban populations will continue to grow rapidly in the developing countries as rural migration is added to natural increase. The number of cities with 10 million inhabitants has increased from 2 to 13 between 1950 and 1985, and is expected to reach 25 by 2000, with Mexico City, Sao Paulo, and Shanghai the world's largest cities. The peak rate of world population growth was reached in the 1960s, with annual increases of 2.4%. In 1980-85 in the developed and developing worlds respectively the rates of population growth were .7% and 2.0%/year; total fertility rates were 2.05 and 4.2, and the life expectancies at birth were 72.4 and 57.0. Considerable variations occurred in individual countries. Annual rates of growth in 1980-85 were 2.4% in Latin America, 3.0% in Africa, 2.2% in South Asia and 1.2% in East Asia. Today only Iran among high fertility countries pursues a pronatalist policy. Since Bucharest, it has become evident to developing and developed countries alike that population control and economic development must go hand in hand.
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  9. 9
    030879

    Mortality and health policy: highlights of the issues in the context of the World Population Plan of Action.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    In: Mortality and health policy. Proceedings of the Expert Group on Mortality and Health Policy, Rome, 30 May to 3 June 1983, [compiled by] United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. New York, New York, United Nations, 1984. 37-79. (International Conference on Population, 1984.; ST/ESA/SER.A/91)

    This paper reviews the major issues that have emerged in the analysis of mortality and health policy since the 1974 World Population Conference. The 1st part summarizes current mortality conditions in the major world regions and evaluates progress toward achieving the goals of the World Population Plan of Action. It is noted that the current mortality situation is characterized by continued wide disparities between the more developed and less developed regions, especially during the 1st year of life. The 2nd part focuses on the synergistic relationship between health and development, including social, economic, and health inequalities. It is asserted that mortality rates in developing countries are a function of the balance governments select between development strategies favoring capital accumulation and concentrated investments on the 1 hand and strategies oriented toward meeting basic needs and reducing inequalities in income and wealth. Data from developed countries suggest that economic development does not necessarily lead to steady gains in life expectancy. Some variations in mortality may reflect changes in family relationships, especially women's status, that are induced by social and economic development, however. The 3rd part of this paper analyzes the effect of health policies on mortality, including curative and preventive programs and primary health care. The lack of community participation is cited as a key factor in the weak performance of primary health care in many developing countries. In addition, there is strong evidence that the concepts and technologies of modern medicine must be adapted to existing systems of disease prevention and care to gain acceptability. The 4th section, on the implementation of health policies, discusses health care management, planning, and financing. It is noted that successful implementation of health policies is often hindered by scarcity, inadequate allocation, and inefficient utilization of health resources. Finally, more effective means to cope with rising costs of health care are needed.
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  10. 10
    030137

    Socio-economic development and fertility decline in Costa Rica. Background paper prepared for the project on socio-economic development and fertility decline.

    Denton C; Acuna O; Gomez M; Fernandez M; Raabe C; Bogan M

    New York, New York, United Nations, 1985. 118 p. (ST/ESA/SER.R/55)

    This summary of information on the development process in Costa Rica and its relation to fertility from 1950-70 is a revision of a study prepared for the Workshop on Socioeconomic Development and Fertility Decline held in Costa Rica in April 1982 as part of a UN comparative study of 5 developing countries. The report contains chapters on background information on fertility and the family, historical facts, and political organization of Costa Rica; the development strategy and its consequences vis a vis the composition of the gross domestic product, balance of trade, investment trends, the structure of the labor force, educational levels, and income; the allocation of public resources in public employment, public investment, credit, public expenditures, and the impact of resource allocation policies; changes in land tenure patterns; cultural factors affecting fertility, including education, women and their family roles, behavior in the home, women and politics, work and social security, and race and religion; changes in demographic variables, including nuptiality patterns, marital fertility, and natural fertility and birth control; characteristics and determining factors of the decline in fertility, including levels and trends, decline by age group, decline in terms of birth order, differences among population groups, how fertility declined, and history and role of family planning programs; and a discussion of the modernization process in Costa Rica and the relationship between demographic and socioeconomic variables. Beginning with the 1948 civil war, Costa Rica underwent drastic changes which were still reflected in national life as late as 1970. The industrial sector and the government bureaucracy have become decisive forces in development and the government has become the major employer. The state plays a key role in economic life, and state participation is a determining factor in extending medical and educational resources in the social field. The economically active population declined from 64% in 1960 to 55% in 1975 due to urbanization and migration from rural to urban areas, but there was an increase in economic participation of women, especially in urban areas. Increased educational level of the population in general and women in particular created changes in traditional attitudes and behavior. Although there is no specific explanation of why Costa Rica's fertility decline occurred, some observations about its determining factors and mechanisms can be made: the considerable economic development of the 1950s and 1960s brought about a rapid rise in per capita income and changes in the structure of production as well as substantial social development, increased opportunities for self-improvement for some social groups, and a rise in expectations. The size of the family became an aspect of conflict between rising expectations and increasing expenses. The National Family Planning Program helped accelerate the fertility decline.
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  11. 11
    028858

    [Hunger and disease in less developed countries and en route to development (the Third World). Proposal for solutions] Hambre y enfermedades en los paises menos adelantados y en vias de desarrollo (Tercer Mundo). Propuesta de soluciones.

    Piedrola Gil G

    Anales de la Real Academia Nacional de Medicina. 1984; 101(1):39-96.

    The extent, causes, and possible solutions to problems of hunger, inequality, and disease in developing countries are discussed in this essay. Various frameworks and indicators have been proposed for identifying the poorest of nations; currently, 21 African, 9 Asian, and 1 American nation are regarded as the poorest of the poor. The 31 least developed countries, the 89 developing countries, and the 37 developed countries respectively have populations of 283 million, 3 billion; infant mortality rates of 160, 94, and 19/1000 live births; life expectancies of 45, 60, and 72 years; literacy rates of 28, 55, and 98%; per capita gross national products of $170, and $520, and $6230; and per capita public health expenditures of $1.70, $6.50, and $244. Developing countries in the year 2000 are expected to have 4.87 billion of the world's 6.2 billion inhabitants. The 3rd world contains 70% of the world's population but receives only 17% of world income. 40 million persons die of hunger or its consequences each year. Economic and social development is the only solution to problems of poverty and underdevelopment, and will require mobilization of all present and future human and material resources to achieve maximum possible wellbeing for each human being. Among principal causes of underdevelopment in the 3rd World are drought, illness, exile, socioeconomic disorder, war, and arms expenditures. Current food production and a long list of possible new technologies would be adequate to feed the world's population, but poor distribution condemns the world's people to hunger. Numerous UN agencies, organizations, and programs are dedicated to solving the problems of hunger, underdevelopment, and disease. In 1982, 600 billion dollars were spent in armanents, of $112 for each of the world's inhabitants; diversion of these resources to development goals would go a long way toward solving the problem of underdevelopment. The main problem is not lack of resources, but the need to establish a new and more just economic and distributive order along with genuine solidarity in the struggle against underdevelopment. Several steps should be taken: agricultural production should be increased with the full participation of the developng nations; the industrialized or petroleum-producing nations should aid the poor states with at least .7% and up to 5% of their gross national products for the struggle against drought, disease, illiteracy, and for the green revolution and new agropastoral technologies; prices paid to poor countries for raw materials should be fair; responsible parenthood, education, women's rights, clean drinking water, environmental sanitation and primary health care should be promoted; the arms race should be halted, and the North-South dialogue should be pursued in a spirit of goodwill and cooperation.
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  12. 12
    267814

    Population, resources, environment and development.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs

    New York, New York, United Nations, 1984. ix, 534 p. (International Conference on Population, 1984; Statements ST/ESA/SER.A/90)

    Contained in this volume are the report (Part I) and the selected papers (Part II) of the Expert Group on Population, Resources, Environment and Development which review past trends and their likely future course in each of the 4 areas, taking into account not only evolving concepts but also the need to consider population, resources, environment and development as a unified structure. Trends noted in the population factor include world population growth and the differences between rates in the developed and developing countries; the decline in the proportion of the population who are very young and the concomitant increase in the average age of the population. Discussed within the resource factor are the labor force, the problem of increasing capital shortage, expenditures on armaments, trends in the supply and productivity of arable land, erosion and degradation of topsoil and energy sources. Many of the problems identified overlap with the environment factor, which centers on the problem of pollution. The group on the development factor was influenced by a pervasiv sense of "crisis" in current economic trends. Concern was also expressed regarding the qualitative aspects of current development trends, defined as the perverse effects of having adopted inappropriate styles of development. Part II begins with a general overview of recent levels and trends in the 4 areas along with the concepts of carrying capacity and optimum population. Other papers discuss the impact of trends in resources, environment and development on demographic prospects; long-term effects of global population growth on the international system; economic considerations in the choice of alternative paths to a stationary population and the need for integration of demographic factors in development planning. The various papers on the resources and environment factor focus on resources as a barrier to population growth; the effects of population growth on renewable resources; food production and population growth in Africa; the frailty of the balance between the 4 areas and the need for a holistic approach on a scale useful for regional planning. Also addressed are: social development; population and international economic relations; development, lifestyles, population and environment in Latin America; issues of population growth, inequality and poverty; health, population and development trends; education requirements and trends in female literacy; the challenge posed by the aging of populations; and population and development in the ECE region.
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  13. 13
    021441
    Peer Reviewed

    A perspective on long-term population growth.

    Demeny PG

    Population and Development Review. 1984 Mar; 10(1):103-26.

    This paper presents some of the results of projections prepared by the World Bank in 1983 for all the world's countries. The projections (presented against a background of recent demographic trends as estimated by the United Nations) trace the approach of each individual country to a stationary state. Implications of the underlying fertility and mortality assumptions are shown mainly in terms of time trends of total population to the year 2100, annual rates of growth, and absolute annual increments. These indices are shown for the largest individual countries, for world regions, and for country groupings according to economic criteria. The detailed predictive performance of such projections is likely to be poor but the projections indicate orders of magnitude characterizing certain aggregate demographic phenomena whose occurrence is highly probable and set clearly interpretable reference points useful in discussing contemporary issues of policy. (author's)
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  14. 14
    267631

    Action by the United Nations to implement the recommendations of the World Population Conference, 1974: monitoring of population trends and policies.

    United Nations. Economic and Social Council. Population Commission

    New York, New York, United Nations, 1984 Dec. 10. 15 p. (E/CN.9/1984/2/Add.1)

    Pursuant to the recommendation of the World Population Plan of Action adopted in 1974, which was reaffirmed by the International Conference on Population in 1984, the United Nations has been undertaking a biennial review of population trends and policies. At the 22nd session of the Population Commission, held in January 1984, the Commission requested the Secretary-General to prepare an addendum to the concise report on monitoring of population trends and policies for the 23rd session, bearing in mind the relatively short time span since the preparation of the last such report. The purpose of the present document is to provide the Population Commission with such information to facilitate its deliberation on the agenda item. Analyses show that the gradual slow-down of global population growth is still holding with the present rate estimated at 1.65%/year, down from 2% during the 1960s. Declines have occurred in both the developed and the developing countries. Regional diversity of population trends have been so large that an overall global assessment seems almost irrelevant for policy consideration at national levels. The future population growth rate is expected to decline slower than it did in the past 15 years unless population policies change significantly. During the 1980-85 period the working age population (15-64 years) in the developing countries is estimated to have increased, on the average, at an annual rate of 2.8%, the elderly population (60 and over) at 3% and women in the reproductive ages (15-49 years) at 2.9%. The most urgent problem for many developing countries is perhaps the continuing very rapid increase of the working age population. The aging of the population, which bears significant policy implications, is among the most salient features of population change in the world, except for Africa. Fertility rates in most developed countries continue to fluctuate at low levels. No current data on developing country rates are available. An overall improvement in mortality in most countries is noted. A high rate of urban population growth in developing countries is a tremendous problem facing these countries. International migration, social and economic implications, demographic perceptions and governmental policies are summarized. National sovereignty, human rights, cultural values and peace are stressed as important factors in population policies. Women's status is discussed as playing a role in population change.
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  15. 15
    028327

    United Nations International Conference on Population, 6-13 August 19849

    Brown GF

    Studies in Family Planning. 1984 Nov-Dec; 15(6/1):296-302.

    The international Conference on Population, held in Mexico City in August 1984, met to review past developments and to make recommendations for future implementation of the World Population Plan of Action. Despite the several ifferences of opinion, the degree of controversy was minor for an intergovernmental meeting of this size. The 147 government delegations at the Conference reached overall agreement on recommendations for future international commitment to expanding population efforts in the future. This review examines the recommendations of the Mexico Conference with regard to health, family planning, women in development, research, and realted issues. The total 88 recommendations wre intended to reaffirm and refine the World Population Plan of Action adopted in Bucharest in 1974, and to strengthen the Plan for the next decade. Substantial improvement in development was noted including fertility and mortality declines, improvements in school enrollement and literacy rates, as well as access to health services. Economic trends, however, were much less encouraging. While the global rate of population growth has declined slightly since 1974, world population has increased by 770 million during the decade, with 90% of that increase in the developing countries. Part of the controversy at the Conference focused on the remarkable change of position by the US delegation, which largely reversed the policies expressed at Bucharest. The US delegation stated that population was a neutral issue in development, that development is the primary requirement in achieving fertility decline. Several recommendations emphasized the need to integrate population and development planning, and called for increased national and international efforts toward the eradication of mass hunger, illiteracy, and unemployment; achievement of adaquate health and nutrition levels; and improvement in women's status. The need for futher development of management, training, information, education and communication was recognized. A clear call to strenghten global efforts in population policies and programs emerged.
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  16. 16
    027467

    Adoption of the Report of the Conference: report of the Main Committee.

    Concepcion MB

    [Unpublished] 1984 Aug 13. 40 p. (E/CONF.76/L.3; M-84-718)

    This report of the International Conference on Population, held in Mexico City during August 1984, includes: recommendations for action (socioeconomic development and population, the role and status of women, development of population policies, population goals and policies, and promotion of knowledge and policy) and for implementation (role of national governments; role of international cooperation; and monitoring, review, and appraisal). While many of the recommendations are addressed to governments, other efforts or initiatives are encouraged, i.e., those of international organizations, nongovernmental organizations, private institutions or organizations, or families and individuals where their efforts can make an effective contribution to overall population or development goals on the basis of strict respect for sovereignty and national legislation in force. The recommendations reflect the importance attached to an integrated approach toward population and development, both in national policies and at the international level. In view of the slow progress made since 1974 in the achievement of equality for women, the broadening of the role and the improvement of the status of women remain important goals that should be pursued as ends in themselves. The ability of women to control their own fertility forms an important basis for the enjoyment of other rights; likewise, the assurance of socioeconomic opportunities on a equal basis with men and the provision of the necessary services and facilities enable women to take greater responsibility for their reproductive lives. Governments are urged to adopt population policies and social and economic development policies that are mutually reinforcing. Countries which consider that their population growth rates hinder the attainment of national goals are invited to consider pursuing relevant demographic policies, within the framework of socioeconomic development. In planning for economic and social development, governments should give appropriate consideration to shifts in family and household structures and their implications for requirements in different policy fields. The international community should play an important role in the further implementation of the World Population Plan of Action. Organs, organizations, and bodies of the UN system and donor countries which play an important role in supporting population programs, as well as other international, regional, and subregional organizations, are urged to assist governments at their request in implementing the reccomendations.
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  17. 17
    026268

    Concise report on the world population situation in 1983: conditions, trends, prospects, policies.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    New York, United Nations, 1984. 108 p. (Population Studies, No. 85; ST/ESA/SER.A/85)

    The 3 parts of this report on world, regional, and international developments in the field of population, present a summary of levels, trends, and prospects in mortality, fertility, nuptiality, international migration, population growth, age structure, and urbanization; consider some important issues in the interrelationships between economic, social, and demographic variables, with special emphasis on the problems of food supply and employment; and deal with the policies and perceptions of governments on population matters. The 1st part of the report is based primarily on data compiled by the UN Population Division. The 2nd part is based on information provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO) and the International Labor Organization (ILO), as well as that compiled by the Population Division. The final part is based on information in the policy data bank maintained by the Population Division, including responses to the UN Fourth Population Inquiry among Governments. In 1975-80 the expectation of life at birth for the world was estimated at 57.2 years for both sexes combined. The corresponding figure for the developed and developing regions was 71.9 and 54.7 years, respectively. In 1975-80 the birthrate of the world was estimated at 28.9/1000 population and the gross reproduction rate was 1.91. These figures reflect considerable decline from the levels attained 25 years earlier: a crude birthrate of 38/1000 population and a gross reproduction rate of 2.44. World population grew from 2504 million in 1950 to 4453 million in 1983. Of the additional 1949 million people, 1645 million, or 84%, accrued to the less developed countries. The impact of population growth on economic development and social progress is not well understood. The governments of some developing countries still officially welcome a rapid rate of population growth. Many other governments see cause for concern in the need for the large increases in social expenditure, particularly for health and education, that accompany a young and growing population. Planners are concerned that the rapidly growing supply of labor, compounded by a trend toward rapid urbanization, may exceed that which the job market is likely to absorb. In the developed regions the prospect of a declining, or an aging, population is also cause for apprehension. There is a dearth of knowledge as to the impact of policies for altering the consequences of these trends. Many policies have been tried, in both developed and developing countries, to influence population growth and distribution, but the consequences of such policies have been difficult to assess. Frequently this problem arises because their primary objectives are not demographic in character.
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  18. 18
    027665

    [National Conference on Population, Resources, Environment, and Development] Reunion Nacional sobre Poblacion, Recursos, Medio Ambiente y Desarrollo

    Mexico. Consejo Nacional de Poblacion [CONAPO]

    Mexico City, Mexico, Mexico. Consejo Nacional de Poblacion [CONAPO], 1984. 120 p.

    Opening remarks, presentations, comments, and conclusions are presented from the Mexican National Conference on Population, Resources, Environment, and Development, the last of a series of conferences held in preparation for the 1984 World Population Conference. The 3 papers, each with a commentary, concerned questions regarding the balance between population, resources, the environment, and development to be addressed by the World Population Conference; population, resources, and environment; and population and development. A list of comments of participants and the closing remarks are also included. Several concluding statements summarized the main points of the debate: 1) Relationships between demographic variables and economic and social processes are highly complex and the World Population Conference should take such complexities into account. 2) Reproductive and migratory behavior of the population is just 1 element influencing and being influenced by social and economic development. The decreasing rate of population growth alone cannot lead to development. 3) The quest for a better balance between resource utilization and environmental conservation, with the resulting improvement in living standards, requires immediate and realistic measures on the part of the State and the participation of the people not merely as objects but also as active subjects through their community organizations. 4) The regional dimension must be included in the analysis of disequilibrium between population and development, at both national and international levels, in order to provide a better comprehension of phenomena such as migration, urbanization, production and distribution of food, environmental deterioration, ant the qualitative development of the population. 5) Better conceptual, analytical, informative, and planning instruments must be developed regarding the themes of population and development. In particular, instruments for the medium- and longterm should be developed, since the time frame of population processes exceeds the usual programming limits. 6) Questions suitable for a forum such as the World Population Conference must be distinguished from those relating to national population policy. Nevertheless, common principles exist, such as full respect for human rights, national sovereignty, and the fundamental objectives of population policy, which should be to contribute to elevating the level and quality of life of human beings.
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  19. 19
    025567

    The United Nations Conference on Population.

    Salas RM

    Draper Fund Report. 1984 Jun; (13):1-3.

    The UN International Conference on Population to be held in Mexico City in August 1984, responding to an unprecedented upsurge of interest in population over the last decade, offers developed and developing countries the opportunity to assess current and likely future population trends, to comment on programs and progress during the past 10 years, and to determine desirable future directions. More developing countries are reporting diminished declining fertility and family size in countries of widely varying ethnic, social, and economic makeup. Although it is likely that the future will bring a steadily declining rate of world population growth, culminating in stability, present trends indicate that it will take more than a century for world population to stabilize. Meanwhile growth continues. The developing world's annual average birthrate from1975-80 was twice as high as the developed world's. Also there are large areas, much of Latin America and most of Africa, where growth rates continue very high. Other areas, such as parts of Asia, do not follow the general declining trend despite trend despite, in some instances, a long history of population programs. Interest in population programs and demand for resources to support them are growing, but the population dimension is sometimes unrecognized in development planning. The experience of the last decade illustrates that population assistance can make a uniquely valuable contribution to national development when it is given in accord with national policies, is appropriate to local conditions and needs, and is delivered where it can make the most impact. Substantial evidence exists that women in the developing world undertand the risks of repeated pregrancy and would like to take steps to reduce them. It is evident that providers of family planning services are not yet sufficiently responsive to women's own perceptions of their needs and that the social and economic conditions which make family planning a reasonable option do not yet exist. Influxes of immigrants, short and long term, legal and illegal, create particular problems for receiving countries. It is important for sending countries to know what effect the absence of their nationals is having on the domestic economy and essential for receiving countries to consider the protection of the human rights of international migrants, including settlers, workers, undocumented migrants, and refugees. It is a particular responsibility of the industrialized nations to make careful use of limited resources and to ensure that their comsumption contributes to the overall balance of the environment. In most developing countries infectious and parasitic disease remains the primary cause of death, particularly among the young. Much of this toll is preventable. The International Conference on Population provides an opportunity to establish in broad terms the conditions and directions of future cooperation.
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  20. 20
    025380

    Statistics on children in UNICEF countries.

    UNICEF

    New York, UNICEF, 1984 May. 280 p.

    The data in this set of 135 country profiles for 1981 are made up from 9 major sources and cover the countries and territories with which the UN International Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF) cooperates. In terms of infant morttality, countries are divided into 5 infant mortality groups: a very high infant mortality (a) group of countries, with a 1981 infant mortality rate (IMR) estimate of 150 (rounded) or more deaths per 1000 live births; a very high infant mortality (b) group of countries with a 1981 IMR estimate between 110 (rounded) and 140 (rounded); a high infant mortality group of a middle infant mortality group of countries, with a 1981 IMR estimate of between 26 and 50 (rounded); and a low infnat mortality group of countries, with a 1981 IMR estimate of 25 or less. For each country data are also presented on nutrition, demographic, education, and economic indicators.
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  21. 21
    024921

    Some problems in the making of population projections.

    Tabah L

    In: United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population projections: methodology of the United Nations. Papers of the United Nations Ad Hoc Expert Group on Demographic Projections, United Nations Headquarters, 16-19 November 1981. New York, United Nations, 1984. 15-6. (Population Studies No. 83; ST/ESA/SER.A/83)

    As the UN demographic estimates and projections cover all the developed and developing countries, special problems are encountered in data collection and evaluations. The responsibility for the UN projections rests primarily with the Population Division, but the results are the product of collaboration by all responsible offices within the UN system. This is 1 of the strengths of the UN population projections, yet there are numerous problems concerning those projections. Aside from the perpetual difficulties with collection and estimation of basic demographic indicators from incomplete data, all of which must be continuously undertaken, there are 8 major problems which have become more important in recent years and concern the current UN demographic projections. The 1st problem is the question of meeting the needs of the users who are the researchers, the planners, and the policymakers. The 2nd problem is that significant improvement can be made in the methodologies with, on the 1 hand, the prodigious advances in calculation devices and research techniques and on the other, a better knowledge of the economic and social context of demographic variables. The 3rd major problem in the component method of projections of fertility, which continues to be the most influential component to the future population of most nations. Another component of projection, mortality, has become a pressing issue in the field of projection as well. Knowledge of mortality in the third world is highly fragmentary. The 5th problematic issue is urbanization and city growth. There are severe problems with data comparability and projection methods. Sixth, for several developing and developed countries international migration plays a significant role in their population growth. More problematic than estimating the current net numbers of migrants is formulating assumptions about future patterns of international migration. Seventh, thus far demographic projections have largely been based on the demographic theory of transition, which appears to continue to be useful for developing countries. Yet, the demographic transition models are affected by a wider variety of trajectories than anticipated. Finally, no one has been able to explain clearly the major simultaneous movements of fertility of the developed countries. The question of obvious policy significance is what will happen in the future.
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  22. 22
    024924

    Current projection assumptions for the United Nations demographic projections.

    United Nations. Secretariat

    In: United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population projections: methodology of the United Nations. New York, N.Y., United Nations, 1984. 25-32. (Population Studies, No. 83; ST/ESA/SER.A/83)

    The United Nations population projection assumptions are statements of expected trends in fertility, mortality and migration in the world. In every assessment, each of the 3 demographic components is unambiguously specified at the national level for each of the 5-year periods during the population interval (1950-2025). The approach used by the UN in preparing its projections is briefly summarized. At the general level, the analyst relies on available information of past events and current demographic levels and differentials, the demographic trends and experiences of similar countries in the region and his or her informed interpretations of what is likely to occur in the future. One common feature of the UN population projections that guides the analyst in preparing the assumptions is the general conceptual scheme of the demographic transition, or the socio-economic threshold hypothesis of fertility decline. As can be observed from the projected demographic trends reported in this paper, population stabilization at low levels of fertility, mortality and migration is the expected future for each country, with the only important differences being the timing of the stabilization. Irrespective of whether the country is developed, with very low fertility (for example, the Federal Republic of Germany or Japan), or developing with high fertility (such as, Bangladesh or the Syrian Arab Republic), it is assumed that fertility will arrive at replacement levels in the not too distant future. Serious alternative theories or hypotheses of population change, such as declining population size, are not only very few in number, but they tend to be somewhat more unacceptable and inconvenient to the demographic analyst as well as being considerably less palatable to goverments.
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  23. 23
    267060

    [Positive balance in the ten years of the UNFPA] Balance positivo en los 10 anos del FNUAP.

    Salas RM

    Revista de Prensa. 1978 Nov; 12-13.

    This article discusses changes occurring in population since the foundation of UNFPA in 1969. The birthrate has decreased by 15% in about 3 or 4 dozen countries that represent 2/3 of the developing world. Most changes have occurred in small countries. In the mid 70's the life expectancy rate increased from 42 to 54 years in the developing countries and from 65 to 71 years in the developed countries. Latin America has a life expectancy median of 62 yrs. Asia of 56, and Africa of 45 yrs. In the developing countries infant mortality continues to be the determinant factor of mortality. A decrease in mortality linked with improvements in health, educational services, women status, and a more equalitarian distribution of income has been reported. Nevertheless, malaria has again become an important sanitary problem particulary in Asia and Africa. In India, malaria cases increased from 40,000 in 1966 to 143,000 in 1976. Nutrition and health are also related to mortality. Presently, countries try to conserve gains from good years to prevent difficulties in poor years. It is estimated that during the next 2 decades cities will grow to magnitudes unknown to urbanists. In the year 2000 Tokyo may have 26 million inhabitants, Gran Cairo 16.3, Lagos 9.4, and Mexico 31.6. The number of young adults has increased form 488 million in 1955 to 740 million in 1975. It is expected that in developed countries the will increase from 548 million to 688 million in 1985. Strategies of internal and international migration, measures to open up jobs for the young, and budget increases in population programs in Nepal, Costa Rica, and Mexico in the 1970's are discussed. International cooperation to help developing countries to achieve their own goals in matters of population, thus consolidating the gains of the past years, is recommended.
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  24. 24
    267059

    [Population and the new international economic order] La poblacion y el neuvo orden economico internacional.

    Salas RM

    Medicina y Desarrollo. 1977 May; 13-16.

    The problem of population received little attention in the meetings on the New International Economic Order. Historically, governments have equated population increases with prosperity. Recently, governments have accepted the necessity to reduce population for the succcess of social and economic programs. This article points out the advances made by several countries in the areas of health, nutrition, education, contraception, legal aspects, planning, and research methods since 1972. The collaboration of different governments with UNFPA and their solicitation of help from this organization are regarded as further evidence of the advances made. Difficulties for the acceptance of family planning in developing countries such as social sanctions, lack of demographic data, and the role of UNFPA in the amelioration of these problems are discussed. Since population politics are seen as long-term strategical weapons, an intensification of persuasive methods in all countries and an increase in aid to underdeveloped countries are recommended.
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  25. 25
    267058

    Needed: sufficiency for all, excerpt from statement at the World Population Conference, Bucharest, 20 August 1974.

    Salas RM

    Populi. 1974 Sep-Aug; 1(5):4-5.

    Development must be diffused socially and geographically throughout all levels and areas. A society of sufficiency for all, without excess or deprivation, must be aimed at. This concept is valid both nationally and internationally. Progress should not be limited to the economic realm. Rather, priorities should be changed to answer the needs of all. Although growth in terms of GNP has been at its highest ever in the developing world, the economic gap between the developed and the developing countries has widened. The pursuit of increasing wealth has meant greater production, consumption and waste, with consequent increasing damage to the ecological balance. Pollution does not respect national boundaries. The values of cooperation and concern and recognizing the interdependence of human beings are necessary. Change is more readily accepted by national leaders; technologies and techniques are emerging in response to needs. Population should be seen as an integral part of the sufficiency society and the adoption of sensible policies in this field is essential. A clear understanding of the complex interrelationships of fertility, mortality, morbidity, migration and the growth, distribution and structure of the population, and economic and social factors is essential. Since population deals with the most delicate of human relationships, it must be dealth with on the personal level. The Fund should respond to countries' own assessments of their needs and priorities. External aid is to be used when its effect will be of the greatest benefit to the recipient country. A comprehensive and effective communication network is essential. Salas examines the operation of the Fund through examples. The Fund actively assists in furtherance and expansion of family planning and maternal child health programs in many countries. Adequate housing, education and health services, improvement in women's status and income redistribution are crucial factors. Population programs must be an integral part of the total development effort. The success of programs largely depends on the leadership and quality of training of workers before they undertake a project.
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