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Baltimore, Maryland, Johns Hopkins University Press, 1990. lxxiii, 421 p.The World Bank's Population and Human Resources Department regularly publishes a set of world population projections based on its data files. This 1989-90 report has projections for the world and for regions, income groups of countries, and 187 countries. World Bank staff made projections to the point where populations reach stability. In almost all cases, they made only 1 projection. Projection tables for 1985-2030 exist for each country's population. Each country also has tables on birth rate, death rate, net migration, natural increase, population growth, total fertility rate, life expectancy, infant mortality rate, and dependency ratio. The report shows that from 1985-90 population growth was 1.74%, and projected 1990 world population size was 5.3 billion. By 2025, 84.1% of the world's population will be living in developing countries. 58% of the population now lives in Asia. The population of Africa is growing faster than that of Asia, however, (3 vs. 1.9%). By 2000, the population of Africa will be second only to that of Asia, yet in 1989-1990, it is behind that of Asia, Europe and the USSR, and the Americas. The current dependency ratio (67) is expected to decline to 53 by 2025. The highest current dependency ratio belongs to Kenya (120). In developed countries with aging populations, the dependency ratio will rise from 50-58. China will most likely to continue to be the most populous country for about 200 years. India will continue to contribute more to population growth than any other country in the world. Yet the Federal Republic of Germany loses 100,000 people yearly. Total fertility rates are the greatest in Rwanda, the Yemen Arab Republic, Kenya, Malawi, and the Ivory Coast (all >7.2). Afghanistan and 3 western African countries have the shortest life expectancies (about 40 years). These trends illustrate the need to alter population growth.
POPULATION BULLETIN OF THE UNITED NATIONS. 1989; (27):108-24.This paper reviews recent new trends in population structure in the world and its major regions in order to access the determinants of those trends and explore issues regarding the recent and projected changes in the age structure of population and the relationships of those changes to social and economic development. In particular, the paper compares the change in age structure projected by the Population Division of the UN Secretariat in its most recent 3 series--namely, those completed in 1984, 1986, and 1988. By and large, the most recent UN assessment projects that a larger proportion of the world population will be aged 60 and over in 2000 and 2025 than was previously estimated. Those changes in projections can be observed for the world and for the more developed countries as a whole, and for the regions of Africa, Latin America, Northern America, East Asia, Europe, and Oceania. While the recommendations of the International Conference on Population called attention to the importance of changes in population structure, this paper recommends urgent government action in planning social programs for the aged because of the greater eminence of population aging in many settings. The case of Japan is used to illustrate the growing importance of increases in life expectancy as a determinant of age structure changes (in relation to fertility decline), a point that is reinforced through a cruder decomposition of UN estimates and projections for several European countries. (author's)
Estimates and projections of the number of households by country, 1975-2000 based on the 1973 assessment of population estimates and projections.
New York, UN, 1981 May 15. 76 p. (ESA/P/WP.73)The household estimates and projections presented in this report cover the period 1975-2000 and use the population estimates as assessed in 1978. The purpose of these household estimates is to respond to the need for demographic projections in terms of individual traits such as sex, age, labor force status, occupation, and urban-rural residential status and in terms of group characteristics such as the family and household composition. Families and households form the primary unit where individuals are socialized and interact with each other, and, consequently, can be considered as the molecular units of a population. The objectives of this report are to apply existing projections methods to available data, discuss the major problems encountered in their application, especially with regard to the estimation and projection of headship rates, and present the results. The detailed results are presented in tables and provide the total number of households, their annual rates of growth, and average household size by area, region, and country for each 5-year period between 1975 and 2000 according to medium, high, low, and constant variants. During the next 2 decades, it is expected that the number of households in the world will increase at a faster rate than the world's population. The total number of households of the world, which is estimated to have been about 909 million in 1975, is projected to increase by another 775 million (85%), reaching 1684 million by the turn of the century (medium variant). The range of the low and high variants is 1622 and 1754 million, respectively. The average household size for the world population is projected to decline from 4.4 persons in 1975 to 3.7 persons in the year 2000, reflecting the expected future fertility declines and the assumed increases in headship rates. The relatively rapid increases of households projected for the less developed regions is largely due to their high rates of population growth and to expected changes in headship rates. Among the 8 major areas of the world, the rate of increase in the number of households will be the highest in Africa and Latin America. The lowest average annual growth is expected in Europe.