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    083302

    Population projections for Mongolia: 1989-2019.

    Neupert RF

    ASIA-PACIFIC POPULATION JOURNAL. 1992 Dec; 7(4):61-80.

    The State Statistical Office with the support of UNDESD and UNFPA prepared 3 projections. A standard cohort component method was used to project populations by sex and 5-year age groups for each quinquennium between 1989 and 2019. 3 hypotheses were proposed. In Hypothesis 1, fertility was assumed to stabilize at a level of a TFR of 3.5 children per woman. In Hypothesis 3, fertility was assumed to decline up to the period 1990-2004 and up to the replacement level (2.23 children per woman during that period). Hypothesis 2 represents an intermediate situation between Hypothesis 1 and 3 which was considered as the most plausible future trend of fertility. According to Projection 2 the population of Mongolia will be almost 3.8 million in the year 2019. Projections 1 and 3 give total populations of 4.2 and 3.5 million, respectively. The difference between a TFR of 2.2 and 3.5 for the last quinquennium of the projection period resulted in a difference of around 700,000 people. The difference between Projections 1 and 2 is about 400,000 people. Considering the fertility assumptions adopted for these projections, it is not very likely that the size of the population at the turn of the century will be much smaller than 2.6 million or larger than 3 million. What is more uncertain is the scenario for the 2nd decade of next century. During the next 2 decades, the growth will become gradually more moderate. The main changes will be an increase in the proportion of the population between 15 and 64 years of age, a decline in the proportion of the young population of the young population resulting in a substantial decrease of the dependency ratio and an increase in the median age of the population. According to the 3 hypotheses, the young population will continue growing, albeit at a slower pace. There will be a decline in the proportion of young to old people and an increase in the proportion of the population in the working age groups. Yet, all age groups will continue to increase in absolute terms. International migration may produce some deviations in this expected profile.
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