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New York, New York, United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2005. 57 p. (ST/ESA/SER.A/248)Part one of this report provides a global overview of demographic trends for major areas and selected countries. It reviews major population trends relating to population size and growth, urbanization and city growth, population ageing, fertility and contraception, mortality, including HIV/AIDS, and international migration. In addition, a section on population policies has been included, in which the concerns and responses of Governments to the major population trends are summarized. The outcomes of the United Nations conferences convened during the 1990s set an ambitious development agenda reaffirmed by the United Nations Millennium Declaration in September 2000. The 1994 International Conference on Population and Development, being one of the major United Nations conferences of the decade, addressed all population aspects relevant for development and provided in its Programme of Action a comprehensive set of measures to achieve the development objectives identified. Given the crucial importance of population factors for development, the full implementation of the Programme of Action and the key actions for its further implementation will significantly contribute to the achievement of the universally agreed development goals, including those in the Millennium Declaration. Part two discusses the relevance that particular actions contained in those documents have for the attainment of universally agreed development goals, including the Millennium Development Goals. It also describes the key population trends relevant for development and the human rights basis that underpins key conference objectives and recommendations for action. (excerpt)
Washington, D.C., World Bank, Human Development Network, 2007 Apr.  p. (HNP Discussion Paper)The objective of this paper is to discuss some obstacles and opportunities presented by population processes in order to prioritize areas for investment and analytical work as background information for the 2007 HNP Sector Strategy. Within HNP, two areas fall within population: (1) reproductive, maternal, and sexual health issues, and the health services that address them; and (2) levels and trends in births, deaths, and migration that determine population growth and age structure. Many of the aspects of delivery of sexual and reproductive health services are addressed in the overall sector strategy. This paper, therefore, focuses on the determinants and consequences of demographic change, and on policies and interventions that pertain to fertility and family planning. Fertility has declined in most of the low- and middle-income countries, with TFRs converging toward replacement level, except in 35 countries, mainly in Sub-Saharan Africa, where a broad-based decline in fertility has not occurred. As the priorities of donors and development agencies have shifted toward other issues, and global funds and initiatives have largely bypassed funding of family planning, less attention is being focused on the consequences of high fertility. Reproductive health is conspicuously absent from the MDGs, and assistance to countries to meet the demand for family planning and related services is insufficient. The need for Bank engagement in population issues pertains to economic growth and poverty reduction, as well as inequities in terms of the impact of high fertility on the poor and other vulnerable groups. Evidence indicates that large family size reduces household spending per child, possibly with adverse effects on girls, and the health of mothers and children are affected by parity and birth intervals. Equity considerations remain central to the Bank's work as poor people are less likely to have access to family planning and other reproductive health services. Other vulnerable groups that are less likely to be served by reproductive health services include adolescents and rural populations. Additionally, improved education for girls, equal opportunities for women in society, and a reduction of the proportion of households living below the poverty line are necessary elements of a strategy to achieve sustainable reductions in fertility. The Bank has a comparative advantage to address these issues at the highest levels of country policy setting, and its involvement in many sectors can produce synergies that will allow faster progress than a more narrow focus on family planning services. (author's)
Asia-Pacific Population Journal. 2007 Apr; 22(1):3-7.While the science of demography addresses the whole of the human population, substantive demographic research is most often focused on populations with common characteristics. For the last six decades the nation state has been the social unit that has dominated demographic research. The reasons for this focus make perfect sense. Nations define their populations in terms of citizenship and define the ways in which people will be identified in any effort to count the numbers. They have the authority, the interest and the resources to carry out collections of information about members of these defined populations. As members of the United Nations they collaborate with other nations to develop the methodological and technical tools used to analyse national population numbers in ways that are relevant to state policies and actions. In short, the nation is the foundation unit for understanding human population composition and growth. Global population numbers are estimated by compiling the information collected by nations. Interest in populations of units smaller than the nation also relies on national statistical collections and national definitions of component populations, but for most users of data the focus is on the nation, and not the units beyond or below that political entity. (excerpt)
PLoS Medicine. 2006 Apr; 3(4):e211.One of the most unsettling images for newcomers to many parts of Africa is the sight of undernourished women bearing unfeasibly large vessels of water long distances over rough terrain to supply the needs of their families. A sense of outrage that anyone should have to live like this in the 21st century forms the basis of the humanitarian imperative that drives development programs, especially those that focus on basic needs such as access to safe water. When such a program reduces from three hours to 15 minutes the time that women spend fetching water each day, surely it can be described as a success, without the need for any "scientific" assessment of what has been achieved? In this issue of PLoS Medicine, we publish a study that did assess such a program. Mhairi Gibson and Ruth Mace (DOI: 10.1371/journal. pmed.0030087)--from the University of Bristol, United Kingdom--compared villages in Ethiopia that benefited from a tapped water supply with other villages that did not. Outcome measures included the nutritional status of women and children, mortality rates, and birth rates. There were a number of surprising findings, most notably the large increase in birthrate in the villages where the water supply intervention took place. (excerpt)
South African Journal of Demography. 1999; 7(1):63-71.This paper provides a description of demographic resources available on the Internet. These resources include census data, online databases, and home sites of demographic organizations. The description of demographic Internet resources is divided into five sections: North American demography, international demography, general interest items, health-related sources, and geography-related sources. The paper is followed by two appendices. The first provides a brief introduction to the Internet and to Internet access; the second contains a quick-reference list of Internet sites. Readers who are unfamiliar with the Internet should consider reading Appendix I before proceeding. Because one paper cannot reference every demographic resource on the Internet, this paper should be seen primarily as an attempt to impart enough knowledge for readers to seek out further information on their own, according to their particular research interests. (author's)
International thinking on population policies and programmes from Rome to Cairo: Has South Africa kept pace?
South African Journal of Demography. 1996; 6(1):49-56.This paper reviews global thinking on population policy expressed at the world conferences on population matters from 1954 to 1994. The review is complemented by an overview of trends in South Africa that constituted a de jure population policy during the apartheid era. There is also a brief discussion of the Population Green Paper tabled in 1995, aimed at the establishment of a national population policy for South Africa. This is evaluated against the Programme of Action decided on at the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) held in Cairo, Egypt, in 1994. There is an indication that finally, South Africa can be said to be genuinely moving in the direction of respect for human rights in its population policies in harmony with global convention. In a sense, it is catching up with global trends in the population field after years of isolation resulting from sanctions against the apartheid government. (author's)
Population division, department of economic and social affairs, United Nations, MORTPAK for windows version 4.0.
Journal of Population Research. 2004 Nov;  p..The United Nations has released Version 4.0 of its demographic software package MORTPAK. Although MORTPAK 4.0 is designed primarily to estimate mortality, it includes population projections, life tables and stable-population construction, graduation of mortality data, indirect mortality estimations, indirect fertility estimations, and other indirect procedures for evaluating age distributions and the completeness of censuses. For a more comprehensive analysis of mortality however, it is recommended that both the MORTPAK 4.0 package and the US Bureau of the Census spreadsheets (PAS) be used. MORTPAK 4.0 takes advantage of a Windows user interface. While previous DOS versions have been used by demographers since the 1980s, data entry is now on worksheets that resemble spreadsheets, but do not have the functionality of a full spreadsheet. After a new MORTPAK worksheet has been opened, data prepared on a spreadsheet can be pasted into it and the selected application run from dropdown menus. After a selected MORTPAK application has been run, the results can be copied and pasted back into a spreadsheet for further calculation or for creating graphs. The graphing capabilities of MORTPAK itself are still not well developed. MORTPAK output now takes two forms: one recognizable to users of older versions is called document output and is ready for exporting to a Word document in rich text format; the second is placed onto the worksheet and can be copied into a spreadsheet. MORTPAK 4.0 can import data from previous versions of MORTPAK. (excerpt)
Population Index. 1954 Oct; 20(4):241-248.As most demographers know, a World Population Conference was held in Rome from August 31 to September 10 this year under the sponsorship of the United Nations, its interested specialized agencies and the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population. In terms of scope of subject matter, amount of documentation and breadth of geographic distribution in attendance it proved to be much the largest population conference ever held. (excerpt)
New York, New York, United Nations, 2001.  p. (ST/ESA/SER.A/207)The Population Division of the United Nations has a long tradition of studying population ageing, including estimating and projecting older populations, and examining the determinants and consequences of population ageing. From the groundbreaking report on population ageing in 1956, which focused mainly on population ageing in the more developed countries, to the first United Nations wallchart on population ageing issues published in 1999, the Population Division has consistently sought to bring population ageing to the attention of the international community. The present report is intended to provide a solid demographic foundation for the debates and follow-up activities of the Second World Assembly on Ageing. The report considers the process of population ageing for the world as a whole, for more and less developed regions, major areas and regions, and individual countries. Demographic profiles covering the period 1950 to 2050 are provided for each country, highlighting the relevant indicators of population ageing. (excerpt)
[Unpublished] 2001. Presented at the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, IUSSP, 24th General Conference, Salvador, Brazil, August 18-24, 2001. 17 p.The purpose of this paper is to sketch the common lines of development of both the scientific elaboration of world population projections and the international political debate that prepared the ground for such projections and encouraged their development. A partial history of the elaboration of world population projections has already been written. International population debates from the XIX° and XX° centuries are also under scrutiny. But the link between these two developments has not been fully established. The link between projections and politics work both ways. In one direction, projections can contribute to a rationalization of government in the area of economic development, urban planning and so on. They provide societies with a partial view of their future. In the other direction, population projections cannot be undertaken without the help and support of governments and major international organizations. They rely on accurate and detailed censuses. They are costly and time consuming. At both end of the spectrum, there is a need for a global consensus not only within the scientific community and political arenas for population projections to be computed, received and considered as legitimate. More than many other instruments of demographic analysis, the history of world population projections demonstrate these linkages. (excerpt)
Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, University of Dar es Salaam, Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, Demographic Training Unit, . xi, 124 p.The publication of the "Review of Information Sources on Population and Development in Tanzania" by Professor Ophelia Mascarenhas in 1990 was so far the only available annotated bibliography on the subject in Tanzania. Needless to say it is not uncommon for Tanzanian researchers and consumers of research findings in most disciplines to be unaware of available literature within the country. This is worsened by the lack of systematic data bases whereby one can search for the literature in a computer. Most research that is done in the country either ends up in shelves or if it is published the general public may not have access to it. Since the masters programme in Demography started in 1985 at the University of Dares Salaam under the sponsorship of the United Nations Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA) over seventy dissertations have been written in various areas pertaining to population and development. However, these dissertations have not been readily available to people working in the area of population in the country and as such the research findings have only remained in the academic circles. The publication of these dissertation abstracts for the period 1987-1996 will supposedly be of utility to planners and policy makers since its circulation to such people will be taken seriously; more so to researchers who without necessarily reading the dissertations will be able to refer to them. This work has been supported financially by UNFP A through the Demographic Training Unit at the University of Dares Salaam and our sincere gratitude to them. However, the ideas expressed in this publication are purely those of the authors and UNFPA bears no responsibility whatsoever. (excerpt)
In: European Population Conference / Conference Europeenne sur la Population. Proceedings / Actes. Volume 2. 23-26 March 1993, Geneva, Switzerland / 23-26 mars 1993, Geneve, Suisse, [compiled by] United Nations. Economic Commission for Europe, Council of Europe, United Nations Population Fund [UNFPA]. Strasbourg, France, Council of Europe, 1994. 383-9.The European Association of Population Studies (EAPS) was founded in 1993 to disseminate information and organize workshops with affiliated individuals and institutions. The priority topics are international migration, fertility and the family, health and mortality, population growth and age structure, and international cooperation. Within each of these broad areas, workshops and conferences have taken place, and proceedings have been published. This article summarizes the nature of conferences held in each of the five topic areas. For example, joint institutional responsibility among Dutch and European groups, including EAPS, resulted in a 1991 international symposium on the demographic consequences of international migration. In 1985, a symposium was held in Belgium on one parent families. In 1989, a workshop was held on female labor market behavior and fertility. In 1990, a workshop was held on mortality and health care systems in developed countries. Methods of European mortality analysis were discussed at a 1990 international seminar in Lithuania. The impact of policies without explicit demographic goals was discussed at an international conference held in Germany in 1986. Kinship and aging research were discussed in 1988 in Hungary. A workshop was held in Germany in 1993 on pension, health care, labor market, and birth control policies. Data comparability issues in Europe were reviewed in 1991. The first European Population Conference was held in 1987 in Finland; the second was held in 1991 in France.
National Seminar on Population and Development in Malawi, 5 - 9th June, 1989, Chancellor College, Zomba. Report.
Zomba, Malawi, University of Malawi, Chancellor College, Demographic Unit, 1989. ix, 223 p. (UNFPA Project MLW/87/PO1)The role of population in planning for socioeconomic development in Malawi was the topic of a National Seminar held by the Demographic Unit of the University of Malawi in June 1989. 64 participants from the University, Government departments, parastatal, non-governmental and international agencies presented 41 papers. Each of these background and seminar papers are summarized, and 64 recommendations are outlines. The seminar was considered further evidence that the government is becoming aware that fertility, 7.6 children per woman, and related infant mortality, 150/1000, are excessive, according to the UNFPA representative in his keynote address, and the hope that future planning will take population into account. The range of topics covered in the papers included demography, spatial distribution, macroeconomic factors in development, refugees, industry, small enterprises, health services, water supply, education, rehabilitation, status of women, food supply, land ownership, sustainable resources and manpower development. Recommendations specified actions on rural development, roads, legalizing tobacco growing, fuelwood, equalizing food security, taxes, savings, finance, antitrust regulations, incentives for health service in rural areas, housing, female education, handicapped persons, refugees, data and research and many other issues.
Proceeding of the World Population Conference, Rome, Italy, 31 August-10 September 1954. Summary report.
New York, United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 1955. 207 p.The 1954 World Population Conference was the 1st scientific conference on the problems of population to be held under the auspices of the United Nations. This document describes the organization of the conference and contains a list of the 28 meetings held, the topics of discussion of each meeting, a list of the papers contributed and their authors, and a summary report of each meeting. Annex A provides a list of the officers of the conference and members of cimmittees. Annex B lists the participants and contributors. Topics discussed include mortality trends; demographic statistics--quality, techniques of measurement and analysis; fertility trends; new census undertakings; migration; legislation, administrative programs and services for population control; population projection methods and prospects; preliterate peoples; age distribution; socioeconomic consequences of an aging population; demographic aspects of socioeconomic development; design and control of demographic field studies; agricultural and industrial development; genetics and population; research on fertility and intelligence; social implications of population changes; recruitment and training of demographic researchers and teachers; forecast for world population growth and distribution; and economic and social implications of the present population trends.
[Geneva, WHO, 1980]. 19 p.As part of a series of training modules which form a course, the purpose of which is to train health care practitioners and deliverers how to effectively set up an in-country program for control of diarrheal disease, this module presents ficticious data (demographics and population characteristics) about a made-up developing nation, Fictitia. Further modules in this series train users how to order priorities in a diarrheal control program, how to focus on targets and sub-targets in the population and delivery system, how to design an effectively administered diarrheal disease control program, and how to evaluate any such program once implemented in an actual developing nation. Since diarrheal disease is 1 of the largest causes of morbidity and mortality among children under 5 in developing nations of this world, WHO created these training manuals as exercises, which would provide skills, upon course completion, applicable to an actual developing nation on earth.
Action now toward more responsible parenthood worldwide. (Proceedings of the Tokyo International Symposium, Tokyo, April 4-7, 1977).
Tokyo, Japan, Japan Science Society, 1977. 578 p.The Tokyo International Symposium reviewed the progress made since 1974 in integrating population policies with socioeconomic development, with additional focus on needs of rural areas. It was discovered that even countries experiencing economic growth have still failed to provide basic human needs - health, nutrition, housing, education, and employment - and that in densely populated rural areas, and marginal districts of cities, fertility decline has been slow or nonexistant. New evidence presented at the symposium suggested that now a new stage of population history is approaching, characterized by falling birth rates and slackening of world population growth; nevertheless, rapid population growth in developing countries has not ended because 1) of the high proportion of young people in many countries and 2) the fertility rates of the poorest half of the population are 50% higher than the national averages. While projections of world population are being revised downward, world population is still likely to grow from its present 4 billion to 6 billion by the turn of the century. All agencies, official or private, need to emphasize development of cost-effective methods which the government may adopt after a successful pilot study that take into account the social values, religious beliefs, and customs in each country. The symposium urges that additional resources be made available for a broad range of new initiatives in the following areas: 1) to make the fullest range of family planning services available in rural areas and marginal districts of cities; 2) to expand the social and economic roles of women and to improve their status in other fields; 3) to educate adolescents and young adults about their reproductive behavior and to underscore the impact that premature parenthood would have on themselves, their families, and communities; 4) to integrate family planning with development activities; and 5) to encourage program design by affected populations.
Country estimates of maternal mortality: an alternative model. [Estimaciones nacionales de mortalidad materna: un modelo alternativo]
Statistics in Medicine. 2001 Dec 15; 20(23):3505-3524.Ever since the publication of country level estimates of maternal mortality for WHO and UNICEF, there has been some degree of controversy about these estimates. The recent publication of a 1995 revision based on the modification of the multivariate model used for 1990 has not managed to put this controversy to rest. Countries with national estimates of their own have generally protested against the higher figures resulting from the multivariate modelling approach used by WHO and UNICEF, but some experts have also objected to the model itself. As a result of earlier discussions with the WHO/UNICEF team, some adjustments were incorporated into their model, notably the age standardization of maternal mortality ratios (MMRs) and proportions maternal among deaths of females of reproductive age (PDMF) of demographic and health surveys (DHS) direct sisterhood data, as the use of unstandardized values was shown to cause systematic biases. However, a model feature that continued to be controversial was the use of the PMDF as the dependent variable. As will be shown in this paper, the use of this dependent variable has a number of conceptual and practical disadvantages, such as tits dependence on non-maternal deaths and the need for separate projections of births and deaths of women of reproductive age, in order to convert the estimated PMDF into a more conventional MMR. The latter greatly increases the uncertainty of the resulting MMR estimates, even though this additional variance is ignored in the WHO/UNICEF estimates of confidence intervals. On balance, the MMR, while also subject to some legitimate objections, is still considered preferable as an independent variable. This paper therefore derives alternative country estimates for 1995 based on a multivariate model of the MMR. The model is shown to lead to smaller root mean square relative errors of the MMR estimates. While the overall number of maternal deaths estimated worldwide is very similar to the number reacted by WHO/UNICEF, there are major disagreements with respect to particular countries. Finally, a discussion is included on the appropriate way to incorporate the DHS direct sisterhood data, as this affects the results substantially. (excerpt)
[Research centers and the teaching of demography] Centri di ricerca e di insegnamento della demographia.
In: Demographie: analyse et synthese. Causes et consequences des evolutions demographiques, Volume 1. Rome, Italy, Universita degli Studi di Roma La Sapienza, Dipartimento di Scienze Demografiche, 1997 Sep. 291-310.Various international institutions of demography have played a leading role in research over the years including the Population Division of the UN, the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, and the Comite International de Cooperation dans les Recherches Nationales in Demographie. Demographic research dates back to the work of J.P. Suessmilch in the 18th century, who first systematized such figures, and it reached its maturity in the second half of the 19th century, when the first International Congress of Demography was held in Paris in 1878, at which the term demography (coined in 1855 by A. Guillard) was officially accepted. In 1927, the separation of demography from statistics was demonstrated on an international level by the first World Population Conference held in Geneva. Margaret Sanger conceived the idea of the conference declaring that unchecked population growth could profoundly alter human civilization. In 1928, the International Union for the Scientific Investigation of Population was founded affirming the autonomy of demography. Population Index was founded in 1933, followed by various national demographic journals. Demography, the present organ of the Population Association of America, was founded in 1964, and Population and Development Review in 1974. After the second World War, a period of impasse set in, but during the 1950s and 1960s academic studies flourished, especially those preoccupying politicians and the public: the low fertility in the UK and France, international migration in the US, and above all, the growth of global population, primarily in the Third World. Intervention programs were formulated by specialized UN organizations (FAO, UNESCO, UNFPA) whose activities continue in conjunction with the research efforts of over 600 research centers worldwide.
Harare, Zimbabwe, UNICEF-Harare, 1994 Jun. v, 113 p.This volume provides a situation analysis of social, economic, structural, and political conditions in Zimbabwe. 14 chapters cover a wide range of topics, including history, geography, demography, government and administration, food security and nutrition, information networks, women's status, laws and statutes, health, AIDS' impact on women and children, education, water and environmental sanitation, orphans, refugees, and the handicapped. The overview describes the situation of children in Zimbabwe as dependent on class and race, gender and place of birth, education and job opportunities, marital prospects, and access to land and resources. Zimbabwe is viewed as a young country, which has experienced independence for only 14 years. In 1990, immunization covered 85% of all children. Infant and child mortality declined. Life expectancy increased. Primary school enrollment rose to 2.1 million. Over the past 14 years the government has expanded social services and enacted legislation for improving the status of women. Recently social indicators have declined. The reasons are multiple and complex. Some of the reasons are identified as the 1991-92 drought, the global recession, structural adjustment programs, declines in real per capita spending on social programs, the HIV epidemic and associated epidemics of tuberculosis and sexually transmitted diseases, and decreased investment in infrastructure.
FOCUS ON POPULATION, ENVIRONMENT, DEVELOPMENT. 1993 Jul-Sep; 7(3):5.This article reports on India's population growth and urban crowding in the context of world population growth. World population is described as almost 6 billion, and India's population is expected to be 1.4 billion (1393.9 million) in 2025. Asia has 59% of world population compared to 9% in Latin America and 12% in Africa. These trends in world population in this article are based on the recently released report by the UN Population Fund on the 1993 State of World Population. This report highlights the expected change in China's population, which will be reduced from 37% to 31% of Asia's population. India's share is expected to increase from 27% to 29% of Asia's population. India among Southern Asian nations is one of the lowest investors in health (1.6%) and education (2.5%). Only Pakistan spends less on health (0.7%). India's average population growth rate during 1990-95 is projected to be 1.9% compared to 1.3% in Sri Lanka, 2.7% in Pakistan, 2.4% in Bangladesh, 2.5% in Nepal, and 2.3% in Bhutan. Urban growth during this period is expected to be 2.9% in India. The estimated death rate is 10/1000 in India, and life expectancy is 60 years. Average fertility is 3.9 children, and infant mortality is estimated at 88/1000. Tamil Nadu and Kerala states are representative of lower fertility and progress toward increased literacy, life expectancy, and quality of life. 83% of world population increase is expected to take place in towns and cities. Already Calcutta, Bombay, and Delhi are listed in the top twenty agglomerations. By the year 2000 population is expected to increase to 15.7 million in Calcutta, 15.4 million in Bombay, and 13.2 million in Delhi. 60% of urban growth in the developing world is accounted for by migration. Urban areas are beset by the growing inability to house, feed, and employ their population. Development policies should focus on rural areas.
Hanoi, Viet Nam, UNICEF, 1990. XX, 185 p.This document states the concern for the children of Vietnam, the government's policy goals for children, and the implications for the UNICEF program of cooperation. It presents the findings from a situation analysis of women and children in Vietnam in terms of the water and food supply, sanitation, primary health care, nutrition, early childhood development, basic general education, and women in development. The issues for children are directly addressed in subchapters on infant and child mortality, preventable diseases, immunization programs, disease control programs, health policy and infrastructure, nutritional status, anthropometric status and nutrient deficiencies, disabilities, juvenile delinquency, neglected children, school enrollment and drop-out rates, literacy training, and child care services. Women are profiled in terms of the family, ethnic affiliation, demographic characteristics, health, nutrition, education, employment, and women's groups. The UN Convention on the Rights of the Child and future UNICEF cooperation is given. The conclusion is drawn that the status of women has improved to a great extent. Further effort should be directed to women's and children's health, nutrition, and education. Government policies of economic liberalization are identified as useful in increasing support for social services, particularly educational and health services. Women's roles as mothers and wage earners or laborers are considered likely to deteriorate in the short term. Recommendations are made to improve the situation of women through increased roles for women in decision making and though improvement in the management of women's groups. The aim is identified as improvement in women's health and economic status. Health improvements are identified as better access to family planning and the reduction of maternal mortality. Research recommendations are made to provide better information on women's health and nutrition status, women's role in agriculture and forestry, and the conditions of ethnic minority women.
POP SAHEL. 1995 Mar; (22):3.The World Conference on Social Development focused on the question of global poverty. Africa is the poverty continent. Its populations, governments, and institutions are poor. Some of these institutions work on population and demographic research. More preoccupying is the demographic situation in Africa in relation to development. The stakes of the debate are certainly enormous, which haunted the meeting rooms and minds at the International Conference on Population and Development in Cairo. Specialists and responsible policymakers regretted that this conference did not deeply examine the question of socioeconomic development. One of the major difficulties impeding closure of this debate is the uncertainty of the nature of relations between demographic growth and economic development. Demographic research in Africa is very recent. The first population censuses occurred in the 1970s. African demographic research is a prisoner of poverty. To be effective, acceptable, and accepted, population and demographic research would have to depend on precise knowledge of the demographic-economic situation of Africa. African researchers do not have statistical and qualitative arguments at their command, which would allow them to consider the debate on conclusions and actions which will come out of the debate. It is tempting to call for a plan for the future of African demographic research centers and the paths and means to reinvigorate them to make them sustainable and to allow them to support a substantial contribution to this debate. Development in Africa must be the work of the African populations. African researchers must think of and execute the demographic research necessary to this development.
Population dynamics, education and human development: exploring new approaches and methods for estimating social demand.
In: Population and development planning. Proceedings of the United Nations International Symposium on Population and Development Planning, Riga, Latvian Soviet Socialist Republic, 4-8 December 1989, [compiled by] United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Development. New York, New York, United Nations, 1993. 262-71. (ST/ESA/SER.R/116)New macro-accounting approaches in human resource planning, with examples focusing on educational demands, are discussed. The strategies incorporate population factors into human development planning. Traditional forecasting techniques are inadequate. The measurement of linear progress needs to be adapted for better resource allocation within the educational system. Traditional population and educational enrollment forecasts assume the need to supply social demand. In developing countries, structural adjustment and economic crisis result in reduced primary school enrollments. Social demand declines due to poor quality of the education, teacher absenteeism, and irrelevant curriculum in conditions where poverty and marginalization are widespread. Sub-Saharan African statisticians and planners are having difficulty forecasting enrollment and literacy rates and anticipating informal education needs. Rapid population growth interferes with accurate estimation. Cultural and socioeconomic characteristics may vary widely within target groups. Programs may be too uniform or may be directed inappropriately to the needs of the disadvantaged. New forecasts are needed for determining the population groups in need of education, the present and future role of population and the skills needed, the use of present institutions, and the transfer of skills from schools to other services in society. A simulation of costs of alternative learning for a changing age profile in Malaysia is given. The results indicate that life cycle profiles, although difficult to construct, are useful in measuring education investment over time. A difficulty is encountered in constructing simulations that are close to the social reality. The lessons learned from international cooperation are that the focus must be shifted. The options are to increase the traditional support allotted to census undertakings, population education, and family planning or to maintain the same level of support in the aforementioned areas and increase support for qualitative and quantitative scenario construction, demographic and cultural accounting, and household surveys.
In: Readings in population research methodology. Volume 8. Environment and economy, edited by Donald J. Bogue, Eduardo E. Arriaga, Douglas L. Anderton, George W. Rumsey. Chicago, Illinois, Social Development Center, 1993. 26-23.The question posed is whether the environment will continue to provide mankind with the necessities of life. The three threats most frequently cited are: 1) demographic changes, changes in the age structure of the population, and qualitative changes, particularly with respect to health conditions; 2) changes in the availability of natural resources, especially with regard to energy, metals and fertilizers; and deterioration of nature which may involve fresh water, the seas, the atmosphere, and the climate. Technological development is generally considered to be a kind of progress, but it sometimes has an unfavorable impact at the macro-economic level. Regarding quality of life for the countries which have already moved beyond a subsistence economy, the questions are whether the standards can be maintained and whether social goals can be attained. The relationship between population and environment may be examined either at the national level or at the world level. The world is divided into a larger number of independent nations. The economic, demographic, and political conditions of adjoining countries can be very different, as in the case of the Soviet Union and Afghanistan or Turkey; the United States and Mexico; the Ivory Coast and Upper Volta; France and Spain. Hence, a world perspective hinges on three conditions: 1) a single world government which ensures an equitable division of resources and provides everyone with at least the minimum necessities; 2) an close unity among people, which leads either to a pooling of resources or to total freedom of individual migration; and 3) the scarcity of deterioration of those elements needed by all people, such as oxygen, the seas, and the climate. In the absence of such circumstances, each country is responsible for its own environment and living conditions, and the international organizations can provide only limited relief.
In: Race to save the tropics. Ecology and economics for a sustainable future, edited by Robert Goodland. Washington, D.C., Island Press, 1990. 3-32.Economic development has not always increased the quality of life; the impact of economic development on the natural environment has caused failure in specific development projects. Applied ecology can enhance economic development so that it preserves rather than damages the quality of life and of the environment. The influence of multilateral development banks (the World Bank, founded in 1945; Inter-American Development Bank, founded in 1959; the African Development Bank, founded in 1964; and the Asian Development Bank, founded in 1966) on the economic development process is also discussed. How applied ecology can enhance these multilateral development banks is described, and critical areas for future research are suggested. Regarding economic development and quality of life, the acute environmental stresses many developing countries experience are intensifying. Many of today's activities are degrading the world environment at an accelerating rate. More environmental degradation and destruction has probably occurred in the last 20 years than the previous 50 years, while GNP was rising 3% a year in developing countries. The systematic use of ecological principles in development planning can alleviate problems and is beneficial in increasing the quality of life: 1) by fostering the productivity of the natural resources upon which all development depends; 2) by favoring the maintenance of environmental quality; 3) by promoting efficient and sustainable natural resource use; and 4) by avoiding unexpected negative consequences of actions. Applied ecology in national planning consists of: national conservation strategies based on the World Conservation Strategy of 1980; environmental profiles which provide a comprehensive picture of a country's natural resources; natural resource inventories including forests, fisheries, woodlands, and grasslands; environmental sector reviews; year 2000 or 21st century studies; environmental statistics and the calculation of GNP; and carrying capacity. Applied ecology in specific development projects includes pre-project studies; design; mitigatory/compensatory measures; implementation and monitoring; evaluation; and cost/benefit analysis.