Your search found 77 Results
State of world population 2014. The power of 1.8 billion. Adolescents, youth and the transformation of the future.
New York, New York, United Nations Population Fund [UNFPA], 2014 Jan. 136 p.Young people matter. They matter because they have inherent human rights that must be upheld. They matter because an unprecedented 1.8 billion youth are alive today, and because they are the shapers and leaders of our global future. Yet in a world of adult concerns, young people are often overlooked. This tendency cries out for urgent correction, because it imperils youth as well as economies and societies at large. In some countries, the growth of the youth population is outpacing the growth of the economy and outstripping the capacities of institutions charged with providing them basic services. Will schools and universities be able to meet the demand for education? Some 120 million young people reach working age every year. Will there be enough jobs to accommodate their need for decent work and a good income? Are health services strong enough? Will the young, including adolescents, have the information and services they need to avoid early, unintended and life-changing parenthood? Will the next generation be able to realize its full potential? The State of World Population 2014, released today by UNFPA, the United Nations Population Fund, looks at these and other questions to show how young people are key to economic and social progress in developing countries, and describes what must be done to realize their full potential. The global report, titled "The Power of 1.8 Billion," also provides the latest trends and statistics on adolescent and youth populations worldwide, framing investments in youth not solely as responding to the needs of young people, but also as an imperative for sustainable development.
Journal of the History of Medicine and Allied Sciences. 2010 Jul; 65(3):287-326.In 1971 Abdel R. Omran published his classic paper on the theory of epidemiologic transition. By the mid-1990s, it had become something of a citation classic and was understood as a theoretical statement about the shift from infectious to chronic diseases that supposedly accompanies modernization. However, Omran himself was not directly concerned with the rise of chronic disease; his theory was in fact closely tied to efforts to accelerate fertility decline through health-oriented population control programs. This article uses Omran's extensive published writings as well as primary and secondary sources on population and family planning to place Omran's career in context and reinterpret his theory. We find that "epidemiologic transition" was part of a broader effort to reorient American and international health institutions towards the pervasive population control agenda of the 1960s and 1970s. The theory was integral to the WHO's then controversial efforts to align family planning with health services, as well as to Omran's unsuccessful attempt to create a new sub-discipline of "population epidemiology." However, Omran's theory failed to displace demographic transition theory as the guiding framework for population control. It was mostly overlooked until the early 1990s, when it belatedly became associated with the rise of chronic disease.
Washington, D.C., World Bank, 2011.  p. (Directions in Development)The past half-century has seen enormous changes in the demographic makeup of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). In the 1950s, LAC had a small population of about 160 million people, less than today's population of Brazil. Two-thirds of Latin Americans lived in rural areas. Families were large and women had one of the highest fertility rates in the world, low levels of education, and few opportunities for work outside the household. Investments in health and education reached only a small fraction of the children, many of whom died before reaching age five. Since then, the size of the LAC population has tripled and the mostly rural population has been transformed into a largely urban population. There have been steep reductions in child mortality, and investments in health and education have increased, today reaching a majority of children. Fertility has been more than halved and the opportunities for women in education and for work outside the household have improved significantly. Life expectancy has grown by 22 years. Less obvious to the casual observer, but of significance for policy makers, a population with a large fraction of dependent children has evolved into a population with fewer dependents and a very large proportion of working-age adults. This overview seeks to introduce the reader to three groups of issues related to population aging in LAC. First is a group of issues related to the support of the aging and poverty in the life cycle. Second is the question of the health transition. Third is an understanding of the fiscal pressures that are likely to accompany population aging and to disentangle the role of demography from the role of policy in that process.
Lancet. 2007 Feb 3; 369(9559):354-355.Return of the Population Growth Factor: its impact on the Millennium Development Goals, a report of hearings held in the UK Parliament in 2006, focuses on the devastating impact of population growth on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The report was released on Jan 31. The Inquiry Chairman, Richard Ottaway, Member of Parliament (MP), concludes: "The evidence is overwhelming: the MDGs are difficult or impossible to achieve with the current levels of population growth in the least developed countries and regions." Experts from around the world who testified to the hearings described the beneficial effects of slowing rapid population growth, as did Cleland and colleagues recently in The Lancet. Slower population growth permits greater investment in education and health, helping to lift nations out of poverty (MDG 1). By contrast, high birth rates in sub-Saharan Africa have helped increase the number living in extreme poverty from 231 million in 1990 to 318 million in 2001. In Ethiopia, 8 million people already live on permanent food aid, and the projected population growth from 75 million today to 145 million in 2050 presents an insurmountable challenge. Rapid population growth has a detrimental effect on the hope of achieving universal primary education by 2015 (MDG 2). (excerpt)
Genus. 2005 Jul-Dec; 61(3-4):185-192.I was asked by the organizers of this international conference to discuss, in my presentation, the effects of ageing on competitiveness. I will start by arguing that the key economic issue involved by ageing is growth rather than competitiveness per se, as ageing may reduce the growth potential of nations. I will however point out that there is nothing unavoidable about this effect of ageing on growth. Reforming pensions and labour market institutions in order to better exploit returns from experience, it is possible to counteract the effects of a declining workforce on growth and sustain a relatively high rate of capital accumulation even under older societies. But there are strong political obstacles to these reforms. These political obstacles should be fully understood, it is still a matter of positive economics, and possibly counteracted (the domain of normative economics). (excerpt)
Genus. 2005 Jul-Dec; 61(3-4):167-184.This paper intends to comment on some of the connections between demographic patterns and poverty reduction that have been sufficiently tested, and are now widely accepted. The first section of it gives an overview of the different conceptions of poverty that are currently considered. The second deals with poverty measurement, and with the availability of data, both in developed and developing countries, pointing at some of their problems and limitations, particularly for their use in international comparisons and macro-economic analysis. The third describes briefly how theories relating demography and poverty have evolved from the time that this issue was aroused by Malthus, and reviews the current state of the art. In the following section, some aspects of the incidence of poverty on fertility and mortality are explored. The dynamics of the demographic changes and their effects on economic development are the subject of the fifth section. Finally, the last section is devoted to the controversial role that the massive migration inflows that are a trait of our times can play in the eradication of poverty. (excerpt)
Genus. 2005 Jul-Dec; 61(3-4):141-163.World demographic growth at the time of the Rome Conference in 1954 was characterized by unprecedented high rates of natural increase. This was the consequence of the combined effect of faster declines in death rates and sustained high birth rates. As a result, world population would double from three to six billion between 1960 and 1999 and from 5 to 6 billion in just 12 years (1987-1999), while it had taken the world four times as much to double from 1.5 to 3 billion and nearly a millennium to reach the first billion. What triggered this growth were primarily unprecedented mortality declines, a better control of major killer diseases and increases in survival particularly in the developing countries (life expectancy increased from 41 to 65 years on average over the last three decades). With such unprecedented growth rates, the theory of demographic transition acquired particular policy significance in the late 1950s to raise a serious concern about the impact of current and projected growth rates both within countries and internationally at the economic, social and geopolitical levels. This theory would soon become the driving force behind all population policy objectives aimed at third world countries where governments were encouraged to formulate population policies, establish policy institutions and programme structures to implement family planning programmes, bring about smaller-sized families and help couples avoid unwanted pregnancies. (excerpt)
Genus. 2005 Jul-Dec; 61(3-4):111-140.At the end of 1951, in the first issue of the Population Bulletin, the United Nations published an article on the past and future growth of world population (United Nations, 1951). The article provided a "long-term view" of future population growth by projecting the population by groups of countries from 1950 to 1980. According to this first set of estimates and projections issued by the United Nations, the world population, which was estimated to be 2.4 billion in mid-1950, would increase by at least half a billion and at most 1.2 billion over the next 30 years, producing for 1980 a range of 3 billion to 3.6 billion people, with a "medium" value of 3.3 billion. A further scenario obtained by maintaining constant the vital rates estimated for the late 1940s produced a world population of 3.5 billion (table 1), The proceedings of the 1954 World Population Conference held in Rome included another set of population projections, updating the work published in 1951. The major difference between the two sets lies on an upward adjustment of the 1950 population of Asia that resulted in a world total closer to 2.5 billion and led to a larger population in 1980 (3.6 billion in the medium variant). Today, with the benefit of hindsight, we estimate that the world's population in 1950 was slightly over 2.5 billion and that it increased by 1.9 billion over the next 30 years, to reach 4.4 billion by 1980, a value higher than the highest projected at the time of the 1954 Conference. In reviewing past demographic trends, this paper will compare them with those expected by United Nations demographers in the 1950s and 1960s in order to understand better their assessment of how the demographic transition would proceed. (excerpt)
Genus. 2005 Jul-Dec; 61(3-4):69-90.For most of human history, life was especially brutal. The growth of world population was kept in check largely by famines, deadly diseases and wars. Living conditions were poor and death rates were high. Infant and child deaths and maternal mortality were common, and few reached 60 years of age. And prior to 1800, centenarians, those aged 100 or older, are not believed to have lived. As a result of high birth and death rates, world population grew slowly for most of the past. Two thousand years ago, world population is believed to have been around 300 million people. Near the close of the 15th century world population was approaching the half billion mark. And when Malthus wrote his essay on population at the end of the 18th century, world population had not yet reached the one billion mark. Up until the modern era, nearly all of the world's population lived off the countryside. A thousand years ago, a few percent of the world's population of roughly 300 million lived outside rural areas. Even in 1700, the proportion urban had changed little and only five cities had more than a half a million inhabitants: Istanbul, Tokyo, Beijing, Paris and London. By 1800, about three percent of the world's population of some 1 billion lived in cities or urban places. By 1900, about 15 percent of the world's population of 1.6 billion resided in urban areas and the number of cities with more than a half a million inhabitants had increased eight-fold. (excerpt)
From Rome 1954 to Rome 2005 and beyond. Introductory remarks on the past and future of population problems.
Genus. 2005 Jul-Dec; 61(3-4):49-68.50 years on, Rome is once again at the centre of the scientific, and therefore political, debate on population problems. It is a great pleasure and a great honour to introduce here, in this prestigious Academy together with a small but highly qualified scientific and technical/political community, a Conference in order to discuss population problems with a holistic approach. An Irish colleague wrote to congratulate me on this initiative, highlighting how it will once again make it possible to discuss substantial population-related problems on an international level. Indeed when examining political and operative directives, this subject has been frequently neglected in the recent sessions of the United Nations Commission on Population and Development, whose once large number of experts participation is gradually falling. (excerpt)
Genus. 2005 Jul-Dec; 61(3-4):27-48.The International Conference Trends and Problems of the World Population in the 21st Century. 50 years since Rome 1954, was held in Rome, under the High Patronage of the President of the Italian Republic, at the "Accademia dei Lincei" on the 26th and 27th of May 2005 and at University of Rome "La Sapienza" on the 28th of May 2005. Organized by the Accademia dei Lincei, the University of Rome "La Sapienza" and its Department of Demograpy, the Conference was financially supported by the Banca d' Italia and the Compagnia di San Paolo. After the five fundamental United Nations Conferences on Population - held in Rome in 1954 and in Belgrade in 1965, and the following, intergovernmental, held in Bucarest in 1974, Mexico City in 1984 and in Cairo in 1994 - this Conference has been a new, important occasion for the analysis and the debate on population problems bringing them back to Rome after the first pionieristic, merely academic, Conference organized by the United Nations in Rome in September 1954. At that time in Rome the debate highlighted trends and problems that would have characterized the world population during the second half of the 20th century and that have contributed in defining the population policy carried out by the UN and by the single countries. This time, once again in Rome, the aim has been to identify trends and problems that are likely to affect the world population in the first half of the 21st century and to provide cues able to define and build population policies. In one word to revitalize the debate on population issues which have been, for some time, languishing both in the UN and in many countries. (excerpt)
Perspectives on Global Development and Technology. 2004; 3(1-2):171-196.Global reproductive health policy is based on assumptions, couched in scientific language, that technological methods of birth control are superior to traditional methods, use of these methods is more modern and "rational" than alternatives, and abortion should not be considered a form of birth control. The authority these assumptions have achieved in global health circles prevents alternative options from being considered. Our research on women's birth control experiences in Mongolia suggests that reproductive health programs based on such global assumptions fail to consider the local cultural contexts of reproductive decision-making address women's needs, and are therefore seriously flawed. (author's)
Accelerating fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa - UN conventional: a point of view - Brief article - Statistical data included.
UN Chronicle. 2002 Jun-Aug; 39(2): p..Population generally contributes to economic development. But in the context of poverty and limited resources, high fertility can provoke health, economic and demographic problems, such as infant and child mortality, cases of infanticide, infant and child abandonment, inadequate education and unemployment. In most sub-Saharan countries, despite considerable efforts in the field of reproductive health, fertility remains at high levels (5 children per woman). The process of fertility transition will probably be achieved over a longer period of time than initially anticipated, by 2010-2025. Nor will fertility decline occur at the same pace throughout. Thirteen countries, among them Burkina Faso, Chad and Guinea, have not begun the fertility transition; 22 are progressing through the incipient stage of transition; and in some countries, such as South Africa, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Kenya and Cape Verde, transition is advanced. (excerpt)
Lancet. 2006 Mar 25; 367(9515):961-964.In the past couple of decades, while there was modest growth and poverty reduction in the Middle East and North Africa (MEAN) region, impressive gains have been achieved in health status through improvements in technology, health-service delivery, public-health programmes, and socioeconomic development. In 2000, MEAN governments signed on to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), and most MEAN countries are on track to achieving most of the goals. But health outcomes are generally worse among the poorest than among the richest. The challenges facing the MEAN region can be grouped into health-transition and health-systems issues. (excerpt)
[Washington, D.C.], World Bank, 1977 Nov.  p.The Bank entered the population field because its experience drove it to the conclusion that attempts to raise the standard of living in a great many developing countries were being seriously hindered, if not thwarted, by the growth of population. The Bank has no fixed idea how large the population of any particular country ought to be, but it is convinced that, in most developing countries, the faster population grows, the slower will be the improvement of living standards. In many countries "population drag" is not just a minor element in the picture; it is one of the main explanations of why living standards are improving so slowly. In the mid-1960's, about two-thirds of total annual investment in a sample of 2.2 developing countries was required to maintain per capita income constant, leaving only about one-third to increase it. The corresponding figures for a representative sample of 19 developed countries were one-quarter and three quarters. The cost of rapid population growth is therefore large, and it falls most heavily on the poorest. High rates of fertility increase the number of children the labor force must support. Some of these costs are borne by the individual household, while others, such as education, are borne primarily by society. Without a decline in fertility, increased expenditures are necessary merely to provide the same inadequate instruction to larger numbers of students. Rapid population growth is an important cause of inequality of incomes. The expansion of the labor force exerts downward pressures on wages and creates unemployment; in agriculture, the effect is often the fragmentation of landholdings and growing landlessness. (excerpt)
Will the circle be unbroken? - includes related article on population assistance to developing countries - child survival programs and fertility decline.
UN Chronicle. 1998 Winter; 35(4): p..The demographic transition which has been under way in the developing countries since the middle of the twentieth century has shown much difference, both in its course and in the factors behind it, from the transition which started two centuries ago in countries that are now developed. In the developed countries, the gradual improvement in living conditions accompanying industrialization and urbanization, coupled with broadening education and sanitation and a growing understanding of the principle of hygiene and nutrition, resulted in progressive gains in child survival and declines in mortality at all ages. These same forces of development were progressively changing attitudes towards reproduction, reducing the demand for children and lowering marital fertility. In the developing countries, there have been unprecedented declines in mortality over a few decades since midcentury. Only sub-Saharan Africa as a whole Ires not yet entered into this phase of demographic transition to a significant extent. A distinguishing feature of this transition has been that declines in mortality and fertility were not accompanying major gains in economic development. (excerpt)
Demographer John Caldwell and the Addis Ababa Fistula Hospital win 2004 United Nations Population Award.
Population 2005. 2004 Jun; 6(2):12.Well-known Australian demographer, John C. Caldwell, and the Addis Ababa Fistula Hospital, a pioneer in the treatment of childbirth injuries, have won the 2004 United Nations Population Award. The Award is given annually to individuals and institutions for their outstanding work in the field of population and in the improvement of the health and welfare of individuals. The Award Committee, chaired by Ambassador Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury of Bangladesh, selected the two winners after a review of nominations received from around the world. The Committee is made up of Member States of the United Nations, with UNFPA, the United Nations Population Fund, serving as its secretariat. Each winner will receive a certificate, a gold medal and an equal share of a monetary prize. Awards will be presented to winners in July at a ceremony at the United Nations Headquarters, New York. (excerpt)
New York, New York, United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2002 Sep 11.  p. (ESA/P/WP.176)The present report gives an overview of levels and trends of international migration between countries with economies in transition and countries with established market economies from 1980 to the late 1990s. It seeks to organize a large amount of empirical evidence gathered by these countries with two main objectives. First, it aims at describing the main regional features of international migration in and from the group of countries with economies in transition. The rationale for starting in the 1980s is that most of the trends observed in the 1990s have their roots and even started before the borders opened. In fact, migration has itself been cited as one of the elements leading to the political change. However, repressive migration policies unavoidably made basic migration trends very similar in all communist countries. Such similarity could not be preserved once the region liberalized. The second objective of the report is to describe similarities and differences in migration levels and trends among countries in the region during the post-communist period. Namely, are all countries in the region net sending countries? How has international migration affected population growth? What are the main countries of origin and destination? (excerpt)
Examining changes in the status of women and gender as predictors of fertility change issues in intermediate-fertility countries.
In: Expert Group Meeting on Completing the Fertility Transition, New York, 11-14 March 2002, [compiled by] United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division. New York, New York, United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2004. 91-103.The 1994 Cairo Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) focused attention on the role of women’s empowerment in influencing reproductive behavior. However, there is no complete agreement on how this concept should be defined and measured. Because women’s authority can be measured in different ways as well as reproductive attitudes or practices, results of empirical studies are different depending on the indicators used. This has been pointed by the discussion by Kritz and Makinwa-Adebusoye of a Mason and Smith’s article. This debate must be linked to the general debate over the causes and trends of fertility decline in developing countries. In this paper, we propose the introduction of a gender perspective in explaining fertility transitions, as a theoretical point of view that has been missing in the debate. Gender relations have an important role in explaining fertility behavior, a critical and neglected process in explaining fertility transitions. We also present some empirical findings in large intermediate fertility countries as Nigeria, Mexico and India. (excerpt)
Lancet. 2004 Nov 27; 364:1919-1920.South Africa’s rise to pre-eminence on the African continent since holding its first multiracial elections in 1994 is underscored by its status as, among others, the continent’s largest economy, one of its leading investors, and chief sponsor of regional conflict resolution, and by its selection in 2004 as host of the inaugural African Parliament. The past decade has also seen South Africa become the largest contributor of personnel to peacekeeping operations in Africa and one of the continent’s chief sources of donor aid. Given South Africa’s primacy in these arenas, the latest report from the UNPF is cause for concern. The Fund projects a negative population growth for South Africa for the first time, mainly because of AIDS. The effect of AIDS has mostly been considered in country-specific contexts. If the UNPF’s projection proves true, the AIDS pandemic will likely not only threaten South Africa’s prosperity and population growth, but could also compound the threats posed by AIDS, poverty, and military conflicts in many other parts of the African continent. (excerpt)
Culture and human fertility. A study of the relation of cultural conditions to fertility in non-industrial and transitional societies.
Paris, France, UNESCO, 1954 Oct. 510 p. (Population and Culture)The study attempts to develop coherent interpretations of a large mass of diverse demographic, anthropological and other scientific evidence. The committee believes these formulations have value, especially as presenting hypotheses for research and revealing points at which more precise information is needed. Professor Firth, as an anthropologist, and I, as a demographer, have reservations with respect to some of the interpretations. Other scholars who have seen the manuscript support interpretations with which we would disagree. Professor Lorimer himself has indicated that his inferences at many points are tentative formulations. The committee, like the author, presents the study to the public, not as a definitive formulation of the many complex aspects of this subject, but as a significant and valuable, though necessarily subjective, interpretation. The committee shares the author's hope that the publication of this work will lead to more intensive scientific investigations and more definitive knowledge in the future. We believe that Professor Lorimer's work, because it is his own untrammeled product, will accomplish more, both constructively and provocatively, than could be expected at this stage from a study that achieved unanimous agreement by an emasculating compromise. Finally, we wish to express our deep gratitude to Professor Lorimer for the energy, imagination and scholarly dedication with which he has approached his arduous task. (excerpt)
New York, New York, United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2002 Mar 11.  p.This paper reviews the status of the fertility transition and the processes that have led to the nearly universal reductions of fertility achieved so far. The state of current knowledge, buttressed by the actual experience of a growing number of countries, suggests that lengthy periods of below-replacement fertility are likely to be common in the future. Revised guidelines for the United Nations 2002 Revision for the projection of fertility in today’s intermediate-fertility countries are proposed based on the recognition that replacement-level fertility is not necessarily hard-wired in the evolution of populations. The proposed guidelines imply that, under the medium variant, approximately 80 per cent of the world population will be projected to have below-replacement fertility before mid-century. (author's)
In: An agenda for people: the UNFPA through three decades, edited by Nafis Sadik. New York, New York, New York University Press, 2002. 137-150.This volume chronicles the remarkable success -- indeed, the reproductive revolution -- that has taken place over the last thirty years, in which the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) has played such a major role. Our purpose in this chapter is to contrast the situation at the century's end with the one that existed at the time of UNFPA's creation thirty years ago, and to project from the current situation to the new challenges that lie ahead. In many respects, the successful completion of the fertility transition that is now so far advanced will bring an entirely new set of challenges, and these will require a fundamental rethinking about the future mandate, structure, staffing and programme of UNFPA in the twenty-first century. Our purpose here is to identify those challenges and speculate about their implications. (author's)
In: An agenda for people: the UNFPA through three decades, edited by Nafis Sadik. New York, New York, New York University Press, 2002. 2-23.In demographic terms, the last thirty years have been quite distinct from the period that preceded it, or, indeed, from any other period in history. The global fertility level had been almost stable for at least twenty years prior to 1965-1969, with a total fertility rate just under 5 children per woman, and this stability did not hide countervailing forces in different parts of the world. The developed countries, whether they had participated or not in the post-World War II “baby boom,” showed no strong trends in fertility, with a total fertility rate remaining around 2.7. The same lack of change characterized the developing countries, but there the total fertility rate was well over 6, as it may well have been for millennia. (excerpt)
Demographic yearbook. Special issue: population ageing and the situation of elderly persons. Annuaire demographique. Edition speciale: vieillissement de la population et situation des personnes agees.
New York, New York, United Nations, Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis, Statistical Division, 1993. viii, 855 p.This is the second of two volumes presenting global demographic data for 1991. "In this volume, the focus is on population ageing and on characteristics of the elderly population. The tables show how the age structure of the population has changed in the process of the demographic transition. Also presented are changes in fertility, mortality and living arrangements over the period of forty years from 1950-1990. Characteristics of the elderly population are shown on urban/rural residence, marital status, literacy, economic characteristics and disability. A special section on the living arrangements of elderly persons as developed from population censuses complements this picture. Throughout the Yearbook data are shown by urban/rural residence." (EXCERPT)