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New York, New York, Council on Foreign Relations, 2005. 67 p.It is important to clarify the security dimensions of the HIV/AIDS pandemic because actions taken to confront the disease as matters of domestic policy or foreign aid may differ markedly from those taken to address threats to national security. Understanding the impact HIV is now having, much less forecasting its toll and effects twenty years hence, is difficult. Little scrupulous analysis of the political, military, economic, and general security effects of the pandemic has been performed, both because the area is poorly funded and the problem is extremely complex. The epidemic is unfolding in waves that span human generations, and societies are making incremental adjustments along the way as they try to cope with the horrible impact AIDS is taking, not only in terms of human lives lost, but in the devastation of families, clans, civil society, social organizations, business structures, armed forces, and political leadership. Further, the HIV/AIDS epidemic is occurring primarily in regions that are hard-hit by a range of other devastating diseases, acute and even rising poverty, political instability, and other conditions that may mask or exacerbate the various impacts of AIDS. (excerpt)
In: Population transition in south Asia, edited by Ashish Bose and M. K. Premi. Delhi, India, B. R. Publishing, 1992. 19-27.The author notes that, despite recent UN estimates of falling global population growth rates, "the realities in both the developing and developed regions point to increasing, not decreasing, demographic pressures on resources and productive capacities. Global and regional potentialities for attaining rising levels of living in the face of prospective increases in numbers appear to be diminishing, not expanding....[He finds that] population policy, both in the industrially advanced and developing regions, can no longer be regarded as a peripheral part of development programming efforts." (EXCERPT)
POPULATION TODAY. 1992 Feb; 20(2):8-9.A debate within the UK public health community has centered around the feasibility of campaigns to improve child survival rates in Africa in the absence of equally aggressive efforts to increase family planning acceptance. The central spokesperson in this debate, Maurice King of the University of Leeds, has argued that population growth in sub-Saharan countries is undermining the carrying capacity of available resources and threatening ecological collapse. These countries are not exhibiting the characteristic demographic transition pattern, in which declining death rates eventually create conditions conducive to lower birth rates. Instead, they have fallen into a "demographic trap " in which population increases are outstripping growth in food production. To remedy this situation, King advocates the introduction of the concept of sustainability of the ecological foundations of health into the World Health Organizations's official definition of health. Richard Jolly of UNICEF has countered King's articles with the insistence that UNICEF has long supported child survival within the broader context of family planning provision and advocacy of birth spacing.
In: Preserving the global environment: the challenge of shared leadership, edited by Jessica T. Mathews. New York, New York/London, England, W. W. Norton, 1991. 39-77.The thesis that human population growth will eventually destroy the equilibrium of the world ecosystem, because environmental strain is a nonlinear effect of the linear growth, is embellished with discussions of technology and resulting pollution, population dynamics, birth and death rates, effects of expanded education, causes of urbanization, time constraints and destabilizing effects of partial development and the debt crisis. It is suggested that the terms renewable and nonrenewable resources are paradoxical, since the nonrenewable resoureces such as minerals will always exist, while renewable ecosystems and species are limited. The competitive economy actually accelerates destruction of biological resoureces because it overvalues rare species when they have crossed the equilibrium threshold and are in decline. Technological outputs are proportional to population numbers: therefore adverse effects of population should be considered in billions, not percent increase even though it is declining. Even the United Nations does not have predictions of the effects of added billions, taking into account improved survival and decreased infant mortality. Rapid urbanization of developing countries and their debt crisis have resulted from political necessity from the point of view of governments in power, rather than mere demographics. Recommendations are suggested for U.S. policy based on these points such as enlightened political leadership, foreign aid, and scientific investment with the health of the world ecosystem in mind rather than spectacle and local political ideology.
Population and development problems: a critical assessment of conventional wisdom. The case of Zimbabwe.
ZIMBABWE JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS. 1988 Jan; 2(1):81-100.Conventional wisdom, as reflected in reports by the World Bank and the Whitsun Foundation, maintains that control of population growth is the key strategy for stimulating socioeconomic development and ending widespread poverty. The Witsun Foundation has criticized the Government of Zimbabwe for failing to include specific policies for population control in its National Transitional Development Plan. the report further expressed alarm about future availability of land to contain Zimbabwe's growing population. Communal areas are designed for a maximum of 325,000 families yet presently contain 700-800,000 families. This Malthusian, deterministic emphasis on population growth as the source of social ills ignores the broader, complex set of socioeconomic, historical, and political factors that determine material life. Any analysis of population that fails to consider the class structure of society, the type of division of labor, and forms of property and production can produce only meaningless abstractions. For example, consideration of crowding in communal areas must include consideration of inequitable patterns of land ownership in sub-Saharan Africa. Unemployment must be viewed within the context of a capitalist economic structure that relies on an industrial reserve army of labor to ensure acceptance of low wages and labor-intensive conditions. While it is accepted that population growth is creating specific and real problems in Zimbabwe and other African countries, these problems could be ameliorated by land reform and restructuring of the export-oriented colonial economies. Similarly, birth control should not be promoted as the solution to social problems, yet family planning services should be available to raise the status of women. Literacy, agrarian reform, agricultural modernization, and industrialization campaigns free from the dominance of Western capitalism represent the true solutions to Zimbabwe's problems.
Lancet. 1990 Oct 13; 336(8720):936.This article rebuts Dr. King's statement in the Lancet that a precondition to lowering birth rates is reducing child death rates in developing countries. UNICEF's position since the 1980's has been that child spacing through family planning (FP) is a direct way of lowering child mortality and an indirect way of lowering fertility but FP is not a precondition to reducing child mortality. UNICEF has stressed in its Child Summit publication that the synergy between child survival interventions and FP can help accelerate population stabilization rather than either of them working alone. UNICEF has stressed that by encouraging female literacy, MCH/FP and breastfeeding that the misconception of child mortality increasing population growth rates can be curtailed. It is more reasonable to argue that when women are empowered and have better control over their livers, they will choose FP to space their children, than to state that FP methods alone are a necessary and sufficient condition for lowering fertility. A major point made at the World Summit of Children in September 1990 was the need to reinforce child survival and FP "to reduce morality and fertility rates and contribute more to lowering rates of population growth than either type of activity alone." With the know-how and technology now available, UNICEF finds it ethically and morally necessary for countries to pursue child survival and FP at the same time. The cost of such investments are low compared to military expenditures but require vision and commitment from political leaders.
Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, International Development Research Centre, 1990. 40 p. (Searching Series No. 1)There are many global problems. North and South are both worried about thinning of the ozone layer and global warming. This report begins with problems created by the North and the South. The next part shows how scientists in 3rd World countries can help solve these problems. The developing countries are seen as a laboratory where solutions to global problems are being found. Greenhouse gases are heating the earth's climate. This global warming will be bad for millions of people. The carbon dioxide build-up could double between now and the 2nd half of the 21st century. The earth's average surface temperature will rise by 2 degrees centigrade by the year 2030. This could raise sea levels. Scientists from different climates will have to get together on researching this problem. More than 1/2 of the genes of plants used by the West to improve agricultural species of develop medicines are in developing countries. Gene banks should be established. It is too late to stop global warming. Methane gets into the air from many sources. Nitrous oxide is another main greenhouse gas, as is carbon dioxide. The chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) gases also contribute to the greenhouse effect. Ozone is destroyed when chlorine from CFCs and bromine from halons are in the upper atmosphere. Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome is a new global health threat; as are travelling influenzas. The population will grow to about 6.2 billion by the year 2000; 9 out of 10 new births will take place in the 3rd World. The total debt of developing countries right now is more than US $1.3 trillion. This has doubled since 1980. Illegal production of narcotics is significant to various economies. There are many military threats to security. There are many scientists in the South and much health and biological research is undertaken there. In 1997, Brazil will manufacture alcohol-powered vehicles. Canada maintains many ties with developing countries. The North and South must cooperate on scientific research, including the international research centers that have been established in 3rd World countries.
Methodological problems in evaluation of family planning impact of programmes that are integrated with other development sectors.
In: Studies to enhance the evaluation of family planning programmes by United Nations Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division [DIESA] New York, New York, United Nations, 1985. 108-110. (Population Studies No. 87 ST/ESA/SER.A/87)Governments of developing countries began to undertake family planning in the 1960s thanks to a sudden availability of funds for programs exaggerating an already existing cleavage between program and general demography professionals. Discussion at the World Population Conference (WPC) in Bucharest recognized social and economic factors as an important element in the use of family planning and attempted to encourage better cooperation between program evaluators and demographers. Separation of family planning effects from development effects has been difficult. The WPC's World Population Plan of Action (WPPA) reiterated that population and population policies were interrelated with and should not be considered substitutes for socioeconomic development policies. Increasingly, governments have been integrating family planning with education and health programs as recommended by the WPPA. Family planning being a relatively new venture, it is necessary to develop a theoretical framework to justify assumptions that family planning and development are productively integrable and synergistic, determining demographic effects and their causal mechanisms, whether social or program related. A careful record of program inputs must be kept. Important issues in education, which generally speaking has an inverse effect on fertility, are: in which sex and age group of the population is education most effective for fertility control allowing for lag time; and what are the intervening effects--age at marriage, better knowledge, or change of attitudes? Some of the simplest integrated programs combine family planning with educational programs in schools, health programs, and agricultural programs. Thus teachers are trained to educate pupils in population problems; health workers educate family health consumers a logical diversity of function that is however limited by the scope of the health program. The benefits of small family size may be incorporated into rural development ideology. Critical evaluation will necessitate demonstration of integration's beneficial effects.